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Crowding and Contagion in the Haredi Sector

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Crowding and Contagion in the Haredi Sector The Corona Crisis Crowding and Contagion in the Haredi Sector Nitsa (Kaliner) Kasir Based on the article Covid-19, Population Density and Haredi Cities Assaf Tsachor-Shai and Nitsa (Kaliner) Kasir May 6 2020 Background Nitsa (Kaliner) Kasir Background The Spread of Infectious Diseases There are several lifestyle factors that promote the spread of infectious diseases*: • The global factor: widespread travel around the world. • Local factors: urbanization, sanitation problems, overcrowding and non-ventilated buildings. Contagion in the cities: • Cities are prime candidates for the spread of infectious diseases. • The higher the urban density, the greater and faster the spread of infectious diseases may be. In Israel • The spread of Covid-19 in Israel has not been as rapid as in other Western countries. • In some localities and among certain population groups the rate of infection is significantly greater and faster in comparison with other localities and population groups. * Source: Shahar Shiloach, 2016. “Mahalot Veha’ir Hagdola” [Disease and the Big City], Zavit – the Israeli research portal for environmental sciences Nitsa (Kaliner) Kasir 3 Crowding Nitsa (Kaliner) Kasir Fertility Fertility rate among Jewish women, 2015-2017 Rate 7.1 The fertility rate among the Non-haredi Jews – 2.7 Jewish population increases with the level of religiosity 4.0 3.2 3.1 2.5 2.2 Haredi Religious Traditional-Religious Traditional Secular Arab Source: Assaf Tsachor-Shai and Nitsa (Kaliner) Kasir, “Covid-19, Crowding and Haredi Cities” The Haredi Institute for Public Affairs, April 2020; CBS data Nitsa (Kaliner) Kasir 5 Household Household Crowding by population group Crowding 1.42 1.38 Household crowding 0.92 among haredim in Israel is 0.78 similar to that among Arabs, with a considerable gap between that and household crowding among non-haredi Jews Haredim Non-haredi Jews Arabs Total population Source: Assaf Tsachor-Shai and Nitsa (Kaliner) Kasir, “Covid-19, Crowding and Haredi Cities” The Haredi Institute for Public Affairs, April 2020 Nitsa (Kaliner) Kasir 6 Household Household Crowding (persons per room), segmented by population group Crowding 100% 5% 90% 10% 80% 39% In 63% of haredi 45% 21% households the 70% number of people 1.5 or more 60% exceeds the number of 1–1.49 rooms, similar to Arab 50% 20% 1 households (59%), and 18% 40% 43% with a considerable 0.5–0.99 gap between that and 30% 13% 18% Less than 0.5 non-haredi Jewish households (15%) 20% 18% 18% 10% 20% 6% 0% 5% Haredim Non-haredi Jews Arabs Source: Nitsa (Kaliner) Kasir and Assaf Tsachor-Shai, Analysis of the Central Bureau of Statistics’ Labor Force Survey, 2017. Nitsa (Kaliner) Kasir 7 Household Household Crowding, cities with over 50,000 residents Crowding 2.0 1.94 1.8 1.61 1.6 1.52 1.36 1.4 1.32 1.2 1.08 1.0 0.8 Household overcrowding 0.68 is prominent in young 0.6 haredi cities such as Modi’in Illit, Beitar Illit and 0.4 the haredi neighborhoods 0.2 of Beit Shemesh 0.0 Source: Assaf Tsachor-Shai and Nitsa (Kaliner) Kasir, “Covid-19, Crowding and Haredi Cities“ The Haredi Institute for Public Affairs, April 2020 * Non-haredi Jews only Nitsa (Kaliner) Kasir 8 Population Population density by number of residents Density 40,000 35,000 Bat Yam Modi’in Illit 30,000 25,000 Be’er Sheva Shoham Petach Tikva 20,000 Tel Aviv – Yafo Elad Ashkelon ModiZichron’in Yaakov Tzefat Kiryat Malachi Yehud-Monosson Migdal HaEmek Bnei Brak 15,000 Givatayim Herzliya Afula Holon Jerusalem As the number of Beit Shemesh Ramat Gan Ra’ananaRosh HaAyinHaifa Beitar Illit 10,000 TeveriaGan Yavne Or Yehuda residents grows, the Givat Shmuel average population 5,000 density increases km.) persq. (residents Density Population 20,000-100,000 residents Over 100,000 residents 0 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 Number of residents As the number of residents grows, the average population density increases. Therefore, different localities should be assessed by segmentation according to the number of residents. Source: Assaf Tsachor-Shai and Nitsa (Kaliner) Kasir, “Covid-19, Crowding and Haredi Cities,” The Haredi Institute for Public Affairs, April 2020. With no outliers on the scatter plot: Tel Aviv, Jerusalem and Bnei Brak. Nitsa (Kaliner) Kasir 9 Population Population Density (residents per sq. km.) Density 54,075 37,043 34,538 36,585 Population density in 18,875 haredi localities is 3 to 4 18,500 times higher than the 9,685 national average in non- 5,987 5,600 56,700 73,100 47,900 198,900 Residents Residents Residents Residents Residents haredi localities, while household crowding is National Telzstone National Beitar Illit Modi’in Illit Elad National Bnei Brak 1.8 times higher average average average 5,000–20,000 residents 20,000–100,000 residents 100,000 residents and above Population density in the haredi sector is affected in part by household crowding, but is also affected by residential density and the amount of public spaces. Source: Assaf Tsachor-Shai and Nitsa (Kaliner) Kasir, “Covid-19, Crowding and Haredi Cities,” The Haredi Institute for Public Affairs, April 2020 Nitsa (Kaliner) Kasir 10 Crowding Crowding & Social Patterns The haredi sector’s use of community institutions and public spaces in residential areas is frequent and in high volume. • Communal life centered on Torah study fosters much interaction in schools, shuls, Kollels and yeshivas. • Haredi society is community-based, isolated and closed. Thus, community centers serve its religious and halachic needs, as well as its social and cultural needs. • Because of household overcrowding, greater use is made of public spaces such as courtyards, playgrounds, sidewalks on main streets, and so on. The overcrowding and high level of social interaction (which also impacts the decision to live in high-density areas) increase the risk of infection. Source: Assaf Tsachor-Shai and Nitsa (Kaliner) Kasir, “Covid-19, Crowding and Haredi Cities” The Haredi Institute for Public Affairs, April 2020 Nitsa (Kaliner) Kasir 11 Crowding The percentage of children under age 14 in cities with over 50,000 residents 70% 60% 58% 54% 50% 46% 42% 40% 34% 30% 30% Having a high percentage of children in the 20% 18% population increases contact and social 10% interaction – at school, 0% ut during play, and among ’ Lod Eilat Yafo Re Afula Haifa - in Illit in Holon – parents ’ anana Ramle ’ Hadera Ashdod Herzliya Rehovot Bat Yam Bat Netanya er Sheva er ’ Nahariya Ra Ashkelon Kfar Saba Kfar Bnei Brak Bnei Beitar Illit Beitar Jerusalem Kiryat Ata Kiryat Kiryat Gat Kiryat Givatayim Ness Ziona Ness Ramat Gan Ramat Modi Be Rosh HaAyin Rosh Petach Tikva Petach Beit Shemesh Beit Rishon LeZion Rishon Tel Aviv Aviv Tel Hod HaSharon Hod Maccabim - in ’ Modi Source: Nitsa (Kaliner) Kasir and Assaf Tsachor-Shai, Analysis of the Central Bureau of Statistics’ File of Local Authorities – 2018. Nitsa (Kaliner) Kasir 12 The Spread of Covid-19 in Israel Nitsa (Kaliner) Kasir The Spread The spread of Covid-19 in haredi localities was extensive of Covid-19 • The spread of Covid-19 in some of the haredi localities as well as the haredi neighborhoods in Jerusalem* is greater and faster than in most other localities and neighborhoods in Israel. • At the beginning of April, within one week, the number of infected people in Modi’in Illit multiplied by 3.9, in Bnei Brak by 2.9, and in Beitar Illit by 2.7, whereas the number of infected people in non-haredi localities multiplied by 1.8. Source: Assaf Tsachor-Shai and Nitsa (Kaliner) Kasir, “Covid-19, Crowding and Haredi Cities,” The Haredi Institute for Public Affairs, April 2020 Data: Coronavirus National Information and Knowledge Center, April 5 2020, daily report . * Coronavirus National Information and Knowledge Center, April 6 2020, document no. 20, “Most of the Covid-19 hotspots in Jerusalem are in several crowded neighborhoods in the city” (Heb.) Nitsa (Kaliner) Kasir 14 The Spread Rate of people infected with Covid-19 by locality per population density, as of April 19 120 of Covid-19 Haredi Cities 20,000-100,000 Residents Over 100,000 residents Bnei Brak 110 100 90 • The greater the household 80 crowding, the higher the 70 rate of morbidity Elad • The large deviation of 60 haredi localities from the 50 trend line reflects other Beitar Illit Trend line for localities numbering 40 Migdal HaEmek Modi’in Illit 20,000-100,000 residents factors that contributed to Or Yehuda Teveria Jerusalem the faster spread of the 30 Afula Shoham Tzefat Ashkelon Beit Shemesh Herzliya Yehud-Monosson Kiryat Malachi disease, among these the 20 Zichron Yaakov Ra’anana Be’er ShevaTel Aviv – Yafo Givat Shmuel belated compliance with Modi’in Trend line for localities with Covid-19 protocols 10 Gan Yavne Holon Bat Yam Ramat Gan over 100, 000 residents Rosh HaAyin Haifa Petach Tikva Givatayim 0 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 50,000 55,000 Source: Assaf Tsachor-Shai and Nitsa (Kaliner) Kasir, “Covid-19, Crowding and Haredi Cities,” The Haredi Institute for Public Affairs, April 2020; Ministry of Health data, April 19 2020; Population density data, 2013. * The trend line does not take into account haredi localities Running an OLS regression showed that the two variables of overcrowding as well as cities being haredi have a positive and significant impact on the number of infected residents. Nitsa (Kaliner) Kasir 15 Looking Ahead Nitsa (Kaliner) Kasir Contagion in Weighing the Crowding Factor vs. Other Factors the Haredi • Haredi society Community – is a closed community, with its own internal leadership – exhibits limited confidence in state authorities – has less exposure to mainstream media Because of this, it took a long time for the haredi sector to understand the severity of the situation and to adhere to the guidelines and prevention protocols as compared with the general population.
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