Roger Tym & Partners t: 01392 210868 11-15 Dix's Field e: 01392 210869 Exeter e: [email protected] Devon EX1 1QA w: www.tymconsult.com

Taunton Deane Borough Council Taunton Deane Economy Topic Paper Final Report

Final Report December 2010 Taunton Deane Economic Topic Paper

This report is the property of Roger Tym & Partners unless alternative contractual arrangements have been made. If there are such alternative arrangements, Roger Tym & Partners retains ownership of the report until such time as its fees have been paid in full.

Copyright and other intellectual property laws protect this information. Reproduction or retransmission of the information, in whole or in part, in any manner, without the prior written consent of the copyright holder, is a violation of copyright law.

A645a

Taunton Deane Economic Topic Paper

CONTENTS

1 INTRODUCTION ...... 1 The Economic Topic Paper ...... 1 Jobs Targets to 2027 ...... 1 2 TAUNTON DEANE ECONOMY ...... 4 Introduction...... 4 Strategic Context ...... 4 Current Economic Performance ...... 9 Future Economic Performance ...... 11 3 KEY SECTORS ...... 15 Introduction...... 15 B-Space Sectors ...... 15 Non B-space Sectors ...... 16 The Green Economy ...... 18 4 EMPLOYMENT SPACE REQUIREMENTS ...... 25 Introduction...... 25 B-Space Requirements ...... 25 Non B-Class Requirements ...... 27 Green Economy Space Requirements ...... 30 5 EMPLOYMENT SITES ...... 32 Introduction...... 32 Market Overview of Employment Space ...... 32 Qualitative Assessment of Sites ...... 34 Quantitative Assessment of Sites ...... 44 Employment Land Strategy ...... 49 6 CONCLUSIONS ...... 52 Future Growth ...... 52 Employment Land Supply ...... 53 Monitoring and Review ...... 54

APPENDICES Appendix 1 - The Taunton Deane Economy Appendix 2 - Sector Definitions and Conversions to Space Requirements

Taunton Deane Economic Topic Paper

Taunton Deane Economic Topic Paper

1 INTRODUCTION The Economic Topic Paper 1.1 The purpose of this Economic Topic Paper is to guide employment land policy and site allocations appropriate to the Taunton Deane Core Strategy, the current Urban Extensions Study (UES) and other strategic development initiatives. The Topic Paper therefore needs to provide an adequate evidence base to support sound proposals, to provide a coherent analysis of employment land requirements which are consistent with established economic aspirations and strategy for the Borough. 1.2 The Topic Paper starts with an overview of jobs and housing alignments to inform the requirements for employment land, which is set out in the rest of this section. Further sections are then set out as follows: . Section 2 reviews relevant plans and strategies to outline the local economic development priorities and objectives that may provide drivers for future growth and employment land policy. . Section 3 reviews the Taunton Deane Borough and Taunton SSCT job forecasts to identify which sectors are projected to grow and which sectors require space to support this growth. . Section 4 forecasts the demand for employment land based on employment forecasts and compares them with supply in quantitative terms. . Section 5 assesses the allocated sites and sites identified for employment use in the Stage 1 Taunton Deane Employment Land Review, in terms of their broad market and deliverability potential to meet the identified requirements. . Conclusions, including recommendations on future site allocations, are in Section 6

Jobs Targets to 2027 1.3 The Economic Topic Paper focuses on a 21 year planning horizon, from 2006 to 2027 to align with the emerging Taunton Deane Core Strategy. Before identifying the need for additional employment space and employment policies within the Taunton Deane Core Strategy, an appropriate and realistic job target for this period needs to be established. 1.4 There have been a number of studies that identify a range of employment change projections for Taunton Deane Borough. The Council’s Economic Development Strategy (EDS) prepared by GeoEconomics (2010) reports a range of studies conducted between 2005-08 which contain employment and/or floorspace projections for Taunton Deane or Taunton travel-to-work-area (TTWA). To these can be added the subsequent forecast produced by Cambridge Econometrics (CE) for the revoked South West RSS. The EDS also sets an objective to create 16,500 jobs over the period to 2026, which would be an aspirational increase of nearly 30% even before considering the impact of the recent recession. These figures are identified in Table 1.1.

Final Report | December 2011 1 Taunton Deane Economic Topic Paper

Table 1.1 Range of Taunton Deane Employment Forecasts1 2006 2026 2006-26 %p.a. CE RSS 2.8% GVA 62,300 73,300 11,000 0.8% CE RSS 3.2% GVA 62,300 76,100 13,800 1.0% GeoEconomics (2010) 59,000 74,125 15,125 1.1%

Taunton EDS (2010) 59,000 75,500 16,500 1.2%

Source: GeoEconomics (2010)

1.5 Since all these forecasts were produced, the UK economy has been through its longest and deepest recession of the post–war era, resulting in current forecasts being below those set a few years earlier. For example, more recent employment projections for the South West forecast an annual GVA growth of 2.4% per annum compared with the RSS target 2.8% and 3.2% annual GVA growth rates. 1.6 Given the current conditions and revised projections, the lower 2.8% annual Regional GVA growth target is considered an appropriate and more realistic target to plan for. (Further explanation on why this preferred scenario has been selected is provided in Section 2.) To achieve this target future scenario, Taunton Deane Borough would be expected to support a growth of a net additional 11,000 jobs between 2006 and 2026. 1.7 Whilst there have already been changes recorded in the economy since 2006, not least with the arrival of new employment data for 2007 and 2008, no adjustment has been applied in moving the employment base forward two years. This is because employee data for Taunton Deane in the Annual Business Inquiry (which unfortunately excludes self employed workers) for the years 2006 to 2008 show a reduction in employment numbers between 2006 and 2007 and then the apparent modest recovery in 2008, demonstrating some volatility but with limited net change over this period. 1.8 Also, during the preparation of this Topic Paper, the Council decided to change the end date covered by the Core Strategy from 2026 to 2027. Much of the evidence base work used in this Topic Paper is to 2026; however it is unnecessary to make any adjustments because the GVA growth rates are reasonably aspirational, particularly in the short term, and an additional planning year is unlikely to change this position. In other words we consider it realistic to expect the employment projections to be achieved over 21 years rather than 20 years. So, for the ease of referencing with the Core Strategy, the proposed planning targets in this Topic Paper should reflect the period to 2027 and not 2026, however we show data as 2026 where it comes directly from an external source (as in Section 2).

1 Other forecasts (for different years) include: Roger Tym & Partners (2003): 6,600-12,400 additional jobs in Taunton Deane between 2001 and 2021; Baker Associates (2005): 9,300-15,100; additional jobs in Taunton TTWA between 2001 and 2026; DTZ/CE: 7,600-9,800 additional jobs in Taunton Deane between 2006 and 2021. These forecasts projected growth rates range between 0.7% and 1.2% pa, which is similar to those in the above table.

Final Report | December 2011 2 Taunton Deane Economic Topic Paper

Alignment of Job Target and Working Residents 1.9 The implications for the forecasts in terms of the balance between jobs and workers are set out in Tables 1.2 and 1.3. As described in the baseline assessment included in Appendix 1, Taunton Deane Borough was a net importer of labour with a net inflow of 5,200 workers at 2001. Some net inflow of workers should be expected because Taunton is the county town of Somerset and plays a role as a major employment hub for the surrounding towns and districts. 1.10 The issue going forward is whether Taunton Deane should be aiming to maintain this current level of inflow, whether it should be seeking to reduce it by supplying more of its labour force locally or whether it should be seeking to increase the inflow of workers by raising its role as a sub-regional employment hub. There are few other places that are in a position to attempt to attract higher value jobs. 1.11 Comparing the projected growth in population2 and resident workforce with the projected target 11,000 jobs, Table 1.3 shows the growth in economically active to be marginally above growth in jobs and, with other things being equal, this would result in a small reduction in net in-commuting of around 1,0003.

Table 1.2 Taunton Deane Population and Household Projections, 2006 to 2026

2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2006-26 Population 107,400 113,600 119,900 126,400 132,800 25,400 Households 47,000 50,000 54,000 58,000 62,000 15,000 Persons per household 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.1

Source: ONS Sub-national Population Projections 2006

Table 1.3 Taunton Deane Jobs and Workforce Projections, 2006 to 2026

2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2006-26 Total Jobs 62,300 65,600 68,300 70,700 73,300 11,000 Total Population 107,400 113,600 119,900 126,400 132,800 25,400 Working Age Population 63,300 66,600 70,400 74,100 77,900 14,600 Econ Active Population 52,792 55,544 58,714 61,799 64,969 12,176

Source: ONS Sub-national Population Projections 2006; CE; RTP

2 The population projections are based on the latest ONS population and household projections show an increase of 15,000 households over the period 2006-26. Approximately a third is accounted for by change in household size with the remainder being the result of population increase. 3 Further detail is given Appendix 1.

Final Report | December 2011 3 Taunton Deane Economic Topic Paper

2 TAUNTON DEANE ECONOMY Introduction 2.1 This Section of the report reviews the current Taunton Deane economy and strategic policy review, and the strategic growth targets to outline the local economic development priorities and objectives that may provide drivers for future growth and employment land policy. This is assessed with a brief review of relevant regional and local strategies and policies, a baseline economic review of Taunton Deane (detailed in Appendix 1), and a review of the target employment forecasts noted in Section 1. This is a first step in assessing the potential for economic growth and the resulting land requirements.

Strategic Context 2.2 This section looks at local and strategic context for the Taunton Deane economy, creating top down and bottom up drivers for growth. This includes reviewing national, regional and local strategies. 2.3 With the recent change in Government and a new Conservative and Lib Dem Coalition forming, it may yet be too early to provide a clear understanding of the policy direction and how this may affect growth in the Taunton Deane economy. Those strategies and agendas that existed before the election and may continue to inform the future are considered. At the regional level, the Regional Economic Strategy still forms the main guidance in planning for regional economic change; however, like the RSS this is being revoked. Most importantly for the borough is the recently published Taunton Deane Economic Development Strategy, which sets out local aspirations and where growth is expected in the future. This local strategy is reviewed both here and in the next section. Planning For Economic Development 2.4 National policy on planning for employment was comprehensively renewed in December 2009 through publication of Planning Policy Statement (PPS)4, Planning for Sustainable Economic Growth. 2.5 Prior to PPS4, national planning policy documents dealt separately with different kinds of economic land uses. Planning Policy Guidance (PPG)4 dealt with the traditional employment or B-class uses, comprising industry, warehousing and offices, while town centre uses, including retail and leisure, were covered by PPS6 and rural economies by PPS7. PPS4 marks a new approach, aiming to plan for the economy as a whole. Accordingly PPS4 covers all economic land uses (‘economic development’), including the B-class uses (i.e. offices, industry and warehousing) and non B-class uses such as retail, leisure and public and community services. This whole-economy approach is a key feature of PPS4. 2.6 The central message of PPS4 is that the Government wants planning positively to support sustainable economic growth. To help achieve this, the document sets out specific objectives for planning, of which the most relevant to employment land uses are to:

Final Report | December 2011 4 Taunton Deane Economic Topic Paper

. ‘Build prosperous communities by improving the economic performance of cities, towns, regions, sub-regions and local areas, both urban and rural’ . Promote regeneration and combat deprivation . Deliver more sustainable patterns of development, reduce the need to travel, especially by car, and respond to climate change . Promote the vitality and viability of town and other centres as important places for communities . Promote thriving, inclusive and locally distinctive rural communities while continuing to protect the open countryside. 2.7 Policies EC2 and EC5 show how the above objectives should be delivered through local development plans. Below, we summarise the key points from these policies, illustrating each with direct quotes. i. Planning should support economic growth by responding to market requirements (demand): ▫ ‘[Development plans should] set out a clear economic vision for their area which positively and proactively encourages sustainable economic growth ▫ [They should] reflect the different location requirements of businesses, such as the size of site required, site quality, access and proximity to markets [and] the locally available workforce’. ii. To this end, it should aim to predict future requirements, but also be flexible so it can respond to unexpected requirements: ▫ ‘[Development plans should] where possible identify and plan for new or emerging sectors likely to locate in their areas, such as those producing low-carbon goods and services. However, policies should be flexible enough to accommodate sectors not anticipated in the plan and allow a quick response to changes in economic circumstances.’ iii. Planning should prioritise the land needs of certain sectors: ▫ ‘[Development plans should] positively plan for… clusters or networks of knowledge- driven or high-technology industries. ▫ [They should also] identify, protect and promote key distribution networks and locate developments which generate substantial transport movements in locations that are accessible.’ iv. Planning should pursue sustainability objectives that include regeneration of deprived areas, a high-quality environment, re-use of previously developed land, sustainable transport and efficient use of infrastructure, and support town centres. ▫ ‘[Development plans should] identify priority areas with high levels of deprivation that should be prioritised for regeneration investment ▫ [They should] have regard to the character of the area and the need for a high- quality environment ▫ [And] seek to make the most efficient and effective use of land, prioritising previously developed land which is suitable for re-use.

Final Report | December 2011 5 Taunton Deane Economic Topic Paper

▫ [Development plans should also] plan for the delivery of the sustainable transport and other infrastructure needed to support their planned economic development ▫ [They should also] seek to make the most efficient and effective use of land, prioritising previously developed land which is suitable for reuse ▫ Sites for main town centre uses [which include offices4], should be identified through a sequential approach [where town centres come first, followed by edge-of-centre sites and then out-of-centre sites, with preference given to those that are or will be well connected to the centre and well served by public transport]’ 2.8 To summarise still further, the PPS sets out two broad sets of objectives that development plans should have regard to in providing employment land. Firstly, the plans should aim to meet market demand for land, both present and future. Secondly, they should pursue a range of policy (or public interest) objectives, relating to economic efficiency (e.g. promoting industry clusters), social well-being (e.g. investing in deprived areas) and environmental sustainability (e.g. reducing travel to fight climate change). Jobs of the Future 2.9 The HM Government publication ‘Jobs of the Future’ (2009), outlines how expected growth and emerging global trends may generate new jobs in the future UK economy. It identifies how the UK’s labour market is set to change post recession and the potential employment opportunities that key sectors of our economy could generate. 2.10 The Government aims to drive sustainable economic growth that will, in turn, foster investment and business success in the following sectors: . The Low Carbon economy – the global shift to low carbon will help to stimulate the market for low carbon and environmental goods and services. In order to realise the opportunities it is important to develop the skills base to attract investment and drive innovation . Advanced engineering – is where the UK manufacturing base can thrive the most in the coming decades. It is where the highly skilled manufacturing jobs will be created . Life sciences – the UK is already a world leader in pharmaceuticals, medical biotechnology and medical technology, and there is significant potential for further growth, particularly in areas that the UK specialises in, like regenerative and stratified medicine . Digital economy and creative industries – the three major components of the digital sector – information and communication technologies (ICT), broadcasting and creative industries – already make a significant contribution to UK economic output and employment and are predicted to play a key role in wider economic growth over the next decade . Business and Professional Services – despite including sectors like finance, ICT services and real estate, that have been particularly badly hit by the economic

4 Offices are classed as a town centre use as well as an employment (B-class) use.

Final Report | December 2011 6 Taunton Deane Economic Topic Paper

downturn, the UK is still a leading global hub for this industry and is in an unrivalled position to capture a large share of the new jobs this growth will create in years to come . The Care sector – the expansion of childcare provision and the growth in the number of people aged over 80 is expected to create an additional 1.1 million jobs in this sector by 20255 . The Retail sector – more constrained consumer spending means that job growth in this sector is expected to be slower than the last decade. The (previous) Government outlines the importance of tackling the skills gaps that exist in the UK Retail industry and impact productivity . Tourism, hospitality and leisure sectors – rising disposable incomes, both in the UK and overseas, and a diverse and unique tourism offer indicates that tourism will continue to be a strong sector in the UK economy. Low Carbon Transition Plan, 2009 2.11 In July 2009, the UK Low Carbon Transition Plan (LCTP)6 was published as the National strategy for climate and energy change. This document details how the five year carbon budgets will be met and also the Government’s aim for climate change and energy policy. 2.12 The LCTP asserts that the UK can meet its carbon budgets as well as doubling the size of the economy on 1990 levels by 2020. This will also produce the added benefits of improved energy security and local environmental quality. 2.13 The LCTP also has a particularly strong focus on renewable energy, setting out a range of measures including: . Advancing the offshore wind industry . Stimulating progress in wave and tidal technologies . Exploring geothermal energy potential . A new facility to research nuclear technology . Financial incentives for home generation. 2.14 The UK’s Renewable Energy Strategy was published in tandem with the Low Carbon Transition Plan (LCTP) and details further the plans on how to increase renewable sources of energy production for electricity, heat and transport by 15% by 2020. South West Regional Economic Strategy, 2006 2.15 The RES places emphasis on three strategic objectives delivered through eleven regional priorities. The three regional objectives are: . Successful and competitive businesses . Strong and inclusive communities . Effective and confident region

5 Skills for Care (2008) The State of the Adult Social Care Workforce in England 6 HM Government (2009) The UK Low Carbon Transition Plan – National Strategy for Climate and Energy

Final Report | December 2011 7 Taunton Deane Economic Topic Paper

2.16 Productivity and innovation are recognised as increasingly important to achieving these objectives. The RES identifies eight priority sectors supported at the regional level, which are Advanced engineering, ICT, Marine, Food and Drink, Tourism, Creative Industries, Environmental Technologies, and Bio-Medical. The RES also encourages sectors considered important contributors to economic growth and development of the knowledge economy, which are: Engineering, Construction, Public Administration, Finance and Business Services, Distribution and Transport (including Logistics), and Paper and Printing. 2.17 To understand spatial influences within the region to develop functional economic zones for addressing different needs and opportunities across the South West, the RES has considered the functional relationships of settlements and areas. Taunton is located within two such zones: the M5 Corridor functional zone (linking it with Exeter, Bridgwater and Western-Super-Mare), and the A303 Corridor functional zone (linking it with Yeovil and Salisbury). 2.18 A RES background document7 profiles each zone as follows: . A303 Corridor ▫ This is nether a distinct or coherent zone, and is characterised by its road connection into south east of England and the activity around its main settlements ▫ Employment in the knowledge economy is higher in the east of the zone than it is in the west. Taunton is on the west periphery of the zone ▫ Business formation rates range from average to low but employment and economic activity rates are relatively high ▫ Skills and qualification levels are high, house prices are high and rural disadvantage includes service related (e.g. GPs, libraries) exclusion ▫ The zone has witnessed strong GVA per employee growth, particularly in SMEs . M5 Corridor ▫ This zone is defined by flows along the north-south transport routes and forms the link between the ‘prosperous north’ of the region and ‘less prosperous’ peninsula. Taunton is centrally placed with the zone ▫ It exhibits a variety of socio-economic disadvantages (e.g. educational performance; deprivation; housing affordability) ▫ Growth appears to have largely been due to distribution and logistics related to consumer service provision ▫ There are ‘hot spots’ of strategic locations for high-tech and high value adding businesses are apparent ▫ Priority sectors particularly represented in the zone include Aerospace (considerably higher than in the region as a whole) and Biotechnology. At broad sector level,

7 SWRDA, Regional Economic Strategy 2006-2015 for South West England: Spatial Implications – Place Matters

Final Report | December 2011 8 Taunton Deane Economic Topic Paper

Manufacturing, Public Administration and Health have a high representation within the zone ▫ Taunton has a relatively high degree of specialisation in sectors such as Health & Social Care. However, it is poorly represented in other sectors expected to perform well such as computing services, which may affect its ability to grow at, or above, the regional average. Taunton Deane Economic Development Strategy, 2010 2.19 The Economic Development Strategy (EDS) sets out three strategic objectives for Taunton Deane: . To support growth for an additional 16,500 jobs by 2026 . To create better quality jobs to close the earnings gap with the rest of the South West region . To create a dynamic ‘green economy’ which delivers fresh business and job opportunities 2.20 The strategy is focused around the creation of a ‘green knowledge economy’ (GKE) as opposed to just a knowledge economy. In this regard, it sets out three policy themes: . ‘Grow and Green’ Communities – developing community based, driven and owned approaches to the green knowledge economy, linking green initiatives with business and employment growth initiatives . Innovation and enterprise – accelerating business growth and innovation and new enterprise development, with particular attention to high growth firms and high skill knowledge intensive sectors . Promoting Taunton Deane ▫ Internally to local businesses and the community to encourage more local spending and investment, and retain companies and talent; ▫ Externally to establish Taunton Deane as an important destination for inward investment and tourism, at regional, national and international levels

Current Economic Performance 2.21 This section provides a broad overview profile of the Taunton Deane economy. A comprehensive list of descriptive data is set out in Appendix 1, which is summarised here to assess and understand how Taunton Deane’s economy is performing and how this may influence future growth. The Workplace Economy 2.22 The socio-economic baseline analysis in Appendix 1 has shown that Taunton Deane is a major influence in Somerset, both in terms of population size but also as a service and employment centre and driver of economic productivity in the county centred on Taunton town, in the Taunton Urban Area (TUA). 2.23 Key employment sectors in Taunton Deane, and TUA in particular, are in Health and Social Care, Wholesale and Retail trade, Public Administration and Finance. Taunton Deane is

Final Report | December 2011 9 Taunton Deane Economic Topic Paper

underrepresented in many high growth sectors (particularly private sector sectors) and has some over representation of employment in sectors that are typically in decline nationally, such as manufacturing which is mostly located in the Wellington area. 2.24 Recent employment growth has been high, growing by a fifth in ten years from 1998 to 2008, which is twice the national average. However, most of this growth has been driven by Public Administration and services such as Education and Health Care, which employ many people in knowledge intensive occupations, but have a smaller influence on gross value output. 2.25 During the final preparation of this Topic Paper, Somerset County Council announced that some 1,500 employment reductions were being planned by the Council. Other jobs in the key sectors of Education and Health are also potentially under threat resulting from the recent downturn in the national economy and public sector cutbacks. The effects may be significant in the immediate future, though it is anticipated that in the longer-term there will still be growth in these services and change is more likely to focus on the location and sector through which services are delivered rather than the overall total number of jobs. 2.26 Knowledge based employment (KBE) is higher in Taunton Deane than the rest of Somerset, but still significantly less than across the South West and nationally, and among comparator districts such as Swindon, Exeter and BANES. As noted already, much of the KBE in Taunton Deane is within public sector employment. In recent years the proportion of KBEs in Taunton Deane has fallen, in contrast to the growth experienced across the region and nationally. To deliver strong economic growth, this decline will need to be reversed since the Government has identified that the KBE will be a key driver to support future growth in the global economy. 2.27 Relatively few jobs in Taunton Deane are in sectors that typically occupy “B-space” – the designated employment sites and premises for industry, warehousing and offices. This is typical of many towns and cities, where only around one-third of all employment is found in B-space – the rest is in shops, other distribution, construction, self-employment and a range of services, as well as “place-less” employment, although Taunton Deane’s ratio is lower than many. But the Taunton Urban Area has a higher than average proportion of employment in sectors that generally occupy offices. 2.28 Taunton Deane is less attractive to tourists than some of the other Somerset districts, but has a number of popular attractions. The delivery of Taunton Vision is planning to address this, particularly through the redevelopment of the Taunton cultural quarter. Resident Prosperity 2.29 Taunton Deane has traditionally had high levels of economic activity, although this has fallen in recent years. At the same time, unemployment levels have been lower than average. 2.30 Taunton Deane benefits from relatively little deprivation and many residents live amongst the least deprived areas in England. But small pockets of heightened deprivation do exist near the centre of Taunton, where some 7% of Taunton’s residents live. Improving employment opportunities for these residents should be a priority.

Final Report | December 2011 10 Taunton Deane Economic Topic Paper

2.31 Taunton Deane residents are relatively well qualified, particularly in Level 4+ attainment, and a smaller share of residents with no or entry level qualifications. Amongst comparators in the South West region, only the residents in the strong economic hubs of Exeter and BANES perform better. This suggests that Taunton is well placed to attract more higher value knowledge based jobs. 2.32 Resident earnings are higher than the Somerset and South West averages and are considerably greater than workplace earnings, suggesting that some, most likely the better qualified, residents have to travel outside Taunton Deane to gain higher paid employment. 2.33 Taunton Deane has a very high self containment rate and acts as a major draw for residents of surrounding districts and from outside Somerset. In supporting aspirations for more sustainable growth and inclusive communities, it is important that this self- containment level is maintained. With respect to the topic of this paper, providing the right quantum and type of employment land and premises to meet a growing resident population will help to achieve this.

Future Economic Performance 2.34 As noted in the previous section, the employment projections for Taunton Deane are based on the RSS employment projections to 2026. However, the policy context has also shifted significantly since the general election, with the revocation of the RSS and its targets. It is therefore an ideal time for Taunton Deane to be reviewing its figures and therefore this section explains why the 2.8% regional GVA employment forecasts for Taunton Deane are considered the preferred target. To inform the implications for future planning, this then assesses where economic changes are expected. The RSS Forecasts 2.35 Employment forecasts for the South West were produced by Cambridge Econometrics (CE) as part of the general regional information base and input to the Regional Spatial Strategy and Regional Economic Strategy. Though the RSS has now been abandoned and recent economic conditions have been much worse than anticipated, these forecasts still represent the most detailed and current assessment of potential economic and employment change over the longer term period, which in Taunton Deane is to 2027. 2.36 The forecasts followed a different method to CE’s standard regional model in that it started from the key assumption that output8growth in the South West region over the plan period would be 3.2% per annum. This was an ‘exogenous’ assumption, not generated by CE’s model, but decided on by the regional partners. As explained in the RSS’ supporting text, SWRA and SWRDA initially agreed to assume annual growth rates of 2.8% and 3.2% for the period 2006-26, based on historical data, judgment and policy aspiration. 2.37 The 2.8% is derived from assumptions about the UK economy, when the underlying UK growth was estimated to range between 2.25% to 2.75%, and historical evidence showed

8 Measured by Gross Value Added (GVA).

Final Report | December 2011 11 Taunton Deane Economic Topic Paper

the South West economy performing slightly better than the UK economy. Therefore it was assumed that a reasonable future growth rate for the South West economy would be at the top end of this range, 2.8%. 2.38 The 3.2% was based on recent real growth rates for the regional economy over the period 1994-2004, which showed output increasing by 3.15% pa. This faster growth rate assumes improved performance in the supposedly more dynamic sectors targeted by the South West Regional Economic Strategy (RES) and sectors especially likely to benefit from rapid technology change or rising consumer expenditure, and resulting from faster growth in population, household numbers and incomes. 2.39 Both of these growth rates are higher than the baseline scenario produced by CE’s Regional Economic Prospects model, which at the time showed GVA growth over the twenty year period, 2006-26, to be 2.5%. In addition, the beginning of the credit crunch was not yet apparent, never mind the impending recession, when the RSS employment forecasts were produced. At that point in time the UK economy was very much in a period of economic boom which saw the UK enjoy its highest and fastest levels of economic growth since records began. GVA growth had averaged 3% per annum over the period 1996-2006, whilst average jobs growth during this time was around 312,000 jobs per annum and unemployment reached record lows across the nation. 2.40 While forecasts over a twenty year period are normally projected on a trend growth rate, it can be expected that there will be two or three business cycles over the plan period and at any point in the projections the economy might be above or below the trend growth rate. Hence the fact that there has been a recession is not in itself sufficient to negate the projections. However the recession has been particularly long and deep and may have resulted in some overall loss of economic capacity. More recent employment projections for the South West, prepared by the South West Observatory, forecast an annual GVA growth of 2.4%. Therefore the RSS projections are unlikely to be exceeded, and must be considered a best case. However, given that Taunton is a key market and county town of Somerset, and that the Council wishes to aim for a relatively high rate of economic led growth, projecting growth higher than the regional average over the long term should be a strong consideration. 2.41 For these reasons, the lower 2.8% annual Regional GVA growth target is considered a positive appropriate and more realistic target to plan for. Given the current expectation for future job and short term public sector job losses, this may also be considered aspirational, however the target should reflect aspiration in achieving the objectives of the ‘Growth Point’ status together with the Economic Development strategies aspiration for a change in performance, and therefore plan on this basis. We consider these issues in subsequent sections but before then, we look at where this employment growth is anticipated to be achieved. 2.42 To translate the regional growth targets into regional sectoral forecasts (employment by sector), CE started from the baseline forecasts generated under the 2.5% GVA scenario.

Final Report | December 2011 12 Taunton Deane Economic Topic Paper

They then increased these numbers pro rata by industry to produce a sector breakdown corresponding to the regional GVA target of 2.8%9. Under this scenario employment in the region was forecast to increase annually by approximately 0.9%. Taunton Deane Employment Forecasts 2.43 To disaggregate these regional forecasts by local authority district, Cambridge Econometrics used a different model, the Local Economy Forecasting Model (LEFM), which used a shift share method to estimate districts sector forecasts. 2.44 Table 2.1 below presents the 2.8% GVA scenario. This shows employment change in Taunton Deane increasing by 11,000, which is equivalent to an increase of 18%, four percentage points above the South West region forecast. This growth is primarily driven by Education and Health, Other Business Services (which includes legal, accounting, management and consultancy activities, etc) and Distribution (which includes retail). Manufacturing sectors, on the other hand, are forecast to decline over the same period based on the trend projection that is used.

Table 2.1 Employment Projections by Sector, Taunton Deane (2.8% GVA p.a.)

Change 2006-26 % Change 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 # % SW 2006-26 Agriculture etc 2,200 2,100 2,000 1,900 1,800 -400 -18% -22% Mining & Quarrying 0 0 0 0 0 0 0% -32% Food, Textiles & Wood 1,100 1,000 900 700 600 -500 -45% -30% Printing & Publishing 1,100 1,100 1,200 1,200 1,300 200 18% 9% Chemicals & Minerals 1,000 900 900 800 700 -300 -30% -25% Metals & Engineering 400 400 300 300 300 -100 -25% -27% Electronics 500 400 300 200 200 -300 -60% -35% Transport Equipment 0 0 0 0 0 0 - -36% Other Manufacturing 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 0 0% -1% Electricity, Gas & Water 300 300 200 200 200 -100 -33% -32% Construction 2,900 3,000 3,100 3,100 3,200 300 10% 10% Distribution 10,600 11,300 12,000 12,900 13,700 3,100 29% 25% Hotels & Catering 3,000 3,300 3,500 3,700 3,900 900 30% 19% Transport & Comms. 1,900 1,900 1,900 1,900 1,900 0 0% 8% Banking & Insurance 1,500 1,500 1,500 1,500 1,500 0 0% 3% Other Business Serv. 9,100 9,900 10,600 11,400 12,300 3,200 35% 36% Public Admin. & Defence. 7,200 7,200 6,900 6,700 6,400 -800 -11% -4% Education & Health 15,700 17,200 18,400 19,300 20,200 4,500 29% 21% Miscellaneous Services 2,800 3,100 3,500 3,800 4,100 1,300 46% 26% Total Jobs 62,300 65,600 68,300 70,700 73,300 11,000 18% 14%

Source: Cambridge Econometrics

9 To produce employment forecasts that add up to the higher regional GVA growth of 3.2%, additional jobs were added in selected sectors over and above the 2.8% scenario. These sectors include the eight priority sectors in the draft Regional Economic Strategy. Furthermore, faster population and housing growth in the region would also lead to increasing demand for retailing, recreation, miscellaneous services, government services and recreation, cultural and sporting activities. Under this scenario employment in the region was expected to increase by an additional 464,000 jobs over the twenty-year period – an annual growth rate of approximately 1.1%.

Final Report | December 2011 13 Taunton Deane Economic Topic Paper

2.45 Taunton Urban Area (TUA) was identified in the now abandoned RSS as one of the Strategically Significant Cities and Town (SSCTs) in the region, and awarded Growth Point status. In the Core Strategy, this area covers Taunton town and associated settlements of Bishops Hull, Trull, Norton Fitzwarren, Staplegrove and West Monkton. 2.46 The spatial distribution of jobs in the TUA will largely depend on detailed local circumstances and by local policy decisions which respond to these local circumstances which cannot be wholly captured by a top-down regional projection. Nevertheless, to provide guidance for the Urban Extension Study it is necessary to indicate how much growth should be planned for in the TUA growth area. 2.47 Reflecting on the Council’s aim of stimulating investment where it will be most concentrated, it is considered that some four fifths of the Taunton Deane employment growth should be planned for in the Taunton Urban Area. This would be in line with the proposed housing allocation, and is likely to have the maximum effect due to existing agglomeration benefits in relation to Taunton’s urban area. 2.48 Therefore, under the CE 2.8% p.a. regional GVA growth target forecasts, the TUA should be expected to increase by approximately 8,800, over the period 2006-26/27. By applying current sector proportions to the borough level forecasts, the main drivers of this growth are in Education & Health, Other Business Services and Distribution. (Note that the broad “Distribution” sector includes all retailing, so includes a significant level of employment, and growth of employment, in shops)

Final Report | December 2011 14 Taunton Deane Economic Topic Paper

3 KEY SECTORS Introduction 3.1 Based on the analysis of top down and bottom up drivers for growth in the previous section, this Section reviews the different sectors in the economy required to support the planned growth. This analysis is separated into three economic sectors, which are looked at in turn: . “B-space” sectors - jobs normally occupying offices, industrial and warehousing space that will require what is typically referred to as ‘employment land’ and sometimes known as ‘business space’ or ‘B-space’ . “Non B-space” sectors – jobs not normally dependent on designated “employment land”, such as education, health and retail which all require their own specialist sites and premises and are controlled separately in the planning process. These tend to be more service lead jobs, and their expansion and location is likely to be dependent on population growth . Green sectors - jobs supporting the shift towards the lower carbon economy, which is being promoted by national strategies and the Taunton Deane Economic Development Strategy, in particular, the focus is on the Green Knowledge Economy (GKE). This perspective overlaps with the above “B-Space/Non-B-Space” approach - many jobs in “green sectors” fall within “B-Space” requirements, located in industrial or office premises; and some do not – for instance those within Health or Education (see below). 3.2 As noted in Section 1, the forecasts of employment change have been prepared for the 21- year period 2006-27, but recently the UK economy has experienced deep recession, and Government policy is now having a significant impact on funding and resources for key sectors including Public Administration, Education and Health. It is important to view these immediate circumstances in the context of the longer-term, strategic planning of the Borough. This Topic Paper is work towards a plan for a 21-year period, 2006-27, within which there will be at least one full economic cycle where short-term effects will not represent the full cycle. It is important not to plan just for immediate issues, and there may well be a period of significantly different direction of travel for 11 years or more, 2016 – 2027. 3.3 The quantitative forecasts are based on net change in employment from 2006, i.e. job gains minus job losses to give a new total level of employment in the Borough. Thus if there are immediate job losses in 2010/11 in a sector which is forecast to grow by 2026, the forecast process is indicating that there will be compensatory job gains (over the course of the full plan period) to achieve the forecast final total of jobs by 2026. These forecasts of net change are then used later to provide estimates of net change required in floorspace and employment land allocations.

B-Space Sectors 3.4 Using a definition of B-space sectors (i.e. sectors using offices or industrial/warehousing premises, as defined as B-class uses in the Use Classes Order), which are defined in Appendix 2, the target of 11,000 net additional jobs can be converted into B-space

Final Report | December 2011 15 Taunton Deane Economic Topic Paper

employment based on changes in employment sectors. Within the total jobs projected for Taunton Deane under this scenario, some 2,600 (24%) will require B-space accommodation. The results are in Table 3.1 (further details are provided in Appendix 2).

Table 3.1 B-space Employment, Taunton Deane, 2006-27

Change 2006-27 2006 2011 2016 2021 2027 # % Manufacturing 4,573 4,273 4,025 3,625 3,478 -1,096 -24% Other industrial 2,703 2,857 3,030 3,159 3,327 624 23% Warehousing 3,474 3,701 3,927 4,217 4,479 1,006 29% Total Industrial/warehousing 10,749 10,831 10,982 11,002 11,284 534 5% Total Offices 14,622 15,259 15,657 16,146 16,683 2,062 14% Total B-space 25,371 26,090 26,639 27,148 27,967 2,596 10% Total 62,300 65,600 68,300 70,700 73,300 11,000 18% B Space as % of Total Jobs 41% 40% 39% 38% 38% 24%

Source: Cambridge Econometrics, RTP Note, though these figures for each sector are shown in detail, they should be treated with a degree of caution as they are very sensitive to local factors and subject to a range of uncertainty. They should be considered as an indication of the likely scale of outturn by 2027 rather than specific and certain numbers. Industrial Warehousing Jobs 3.5 This shows a marginal decline in industrial employment over the period 2006-27 of around 500 jobs. This reflects both national trends and the local trend. It may be that locally there has been limited manufacturing growth partly because of the shortage of good quality industrial land and premises in TUA which has persisted for a number of years. If this issue is addressed, it is possible (but by no means certain) that positive growth could be achieved. On the other hand, warehousing employment is expected to increase by 1,000 jobs over the same period. This implies a limited requirement for additional new space – though within the existing total industrial/warehousing provision there may be a significant level of redevelopment/reinvestment to meet changing needs and for local businesses to move into better quality premises. Office Jobs 3.6 In the B-space sectors, employment in offices is expected to increase the most, with a projected net additional 2,000 jobs.

Non B-space Sectors 3.7 Non B-space jobs can be found in land use forms such as schools, hospitals, shops or even have no ‘defined’ workplace (such as self-employed construction workers). The forecasts suggest that the employment growth in Taunton Deane would be higher in Non B- space sectors accounting for 76% of the net additional 11,000 jobs in the borough. 3.8 These types of jobs represent the larger part of employment in Taunton Deane, driven by its strongest sectors covering Retail, Health, Social Care and Education, which generally provide services to the local and, possibly, sub-regional population. The retail sector, including convenience and comparison retail and repair of household goods, is forecast to grow by more than 2,400 jobs.

Final Report | December 2011 16 Taunton Deane Economic Topic Paper

3.9 A similar expansion is expected in Education and non-residential Health Care (see below). 3.10 The remaining non B-space sectors are only expected to change marginally in employment numbers. These jobs will normally be treated under Sui Generis uses.

Table 3.2 Non B-space Employment, Taunton Deane, 2006-2027

Change 2006-27 2006 2011 2016 2021 2027 # % Agriculture 368 389 410 431 451 83 22% Food, Textiles, Wood adj 183 167 150 117 100 -83 -45% Chemicals & Minerals adj 382 392 447 453 452 70 18% Metals & Engineering adj 81 81 61 61 61 -20 -25% Electronics adj 282 322 343 326 464 181 64% Other Manufacturing adj 299 334 372 416 464 165 55% Electricity, Gas & Water adj 456 596 519 678 885 429 94% Construction adj 686 756 832 887 976 291 42% Distribution adj 211 225 238 256 272 62 29% Transport & Comms adj 228 231 234 238 241 13 6% Banking & Insurance adj 241 241 241 241 241 0 0% Other Bus Serv adj 4,123 4,790 5,476 6,288 7,244 3,121 76% Misc Services adj 358 443 558 677 815 457 127% Total Green Jobs 7,899 8,965 9,882 11,067 12,666 4,767 60% Total Jobs 62,300 65,600 68,300 70,700 73,300 11,000 18% % of Total Jobs 13% 14% 14% 16% 17% 43% 0%

Source: Cambridge Econometrics; RTP Note, though these figures for each sector are shown in detail, they should be treated with a degree of caution as they are very sensitive to local factors and subject to a range of uncertainty. They should be considered as an indication of the likely scale of outturn by 2027 rather than specific and certain numbers. Health care 3.11 As part of the non-B space analysis in this report we looked at the health sector, which is one of the largest sectors in Taunton Deane. This is one of the key sectors and therefore its survival and growth is important for the Borough. 3.12 Residential Health Care (C2 use class) will grow by some 2,000 jobs, 30% from 2006 to 2027 driven by Hospital activities. The importance of residential Social Care will be rising with the ageing population, and hence some of the growth may also come from this sub- sector. Non residential education and healthcare will grow by the same proportion, supporting an additional 2,450 jobs. 3.13 The ‘top-down’ projections produced on the basis of Cambridge Econometrics forecasts are broadly in line with expectations of the sector locally due to increasing demand from the ageing population. The demand for health care services will particularly come from a growing older population and (according to Taunton NHS) from generations that saw under- investment in preventative measures such as play grounds and participation in sports. Therefore the rate of long term growth should match the high growth experienced during the last five years, suggesting that the projections of C2 and D1 employment space is valid despite the likely cuts and restructuring during the next three years. Thus current redundancies and likely budget cuts should be reversed after 2013 with further growth over the full plan period.

Final Report | December 2011 17 Taunton Deane Economic Topic Paper

3.14 But because of the current uncertainties and proposed cuts in public services, these forecasts will require regular review. For now, health (and education) spending is relatively safe but not completely protected, and it is likely that the need for growth (in education and) health provision will continue over the 20 year plan period as the population grows. Uncertainty is therefore more likely to be on the structures and organisation of sectors of growth rather than actual employment numbers.

The Green Economy 3.15 The Green Knowledge Economy (GKE) has been identified as a priority and a focus for growth in the 21st Century Taunton Deane in the Taunton Deane EDS (2010), as it is nationally. However, in addition to GKE jobs, there will be opportunities for creating less ‘knowledge-based’ Green jobs in the Green and low carbon sector, such as those involved in installation and construction. We look more closely at the definition of Green jobs below. 3.16 Key drivers of the low carbon economy at present are EU and national policies, availability of public funding, and the regulatory context: . EU and National Policies and Strategies: EU Renewables Directive (2008), EU 2020 Strategy (2010), Climate Change Act (2008), BIS/DECC’s Low Carbon Industrial Strategy (2009), HM Government’s Low Carbon Transition Plan (2009), HM Government’s New Industry New Jobs (2009), and many other policy papers and strategies set an over-arching agenda requiring a drastic cut in UK emissions by 18% from 2008 levels by 2020 and 80% by 2050, and source 15% of energy from renewable sources. These targets demand swift action from the central government and local authorities. . Funding: it is widely acknowledged that availability of public funding is critical for successful transition to the low carbon economy, with many emerging sectors experiencing high transaction costs during their first stages of development and needing the government’s support to overcome various market failures (such as the lack of private venture capital). Some funding has been earmarked in the new government’s budget (£60 million for port infrastructure investment) where it has also pledged £1 billion to match a similar amount of private sector funds for the Green Investment Bank to support renewable energy projects and low carbon technologies. The Environmental Transformation Fund was allocated £400 million for the period 2008-2011 for renewable energy and low carbon technologies and energy efficiency demonstration and deployment projects. The European Investment Bank will invest £4 billion on renewable energy projects, including offshore and onshore wind farms, implementation projects, manufacturing projects, and carbon capture and storage. . Regulatory Context: At the EU level one of the main regulatory mechanisms is EU Emissions Trading Schemes (EU ETS) for sectors with high CO2 emissions including air transport. The UK government is developing the low carbon economy through a number of regulatory mechanisms including feed-in-tariffs, Renewable Obligations (ROs), Renewable Heat Incentives (RHIs), and environmental taxes (e.g. Air Passenger Duty). In addition the government is supporting implementation of low carbon technologies through grants and other support schemes to householders. At the local

Final Report | December 2011 18 Taunton Deane Economic Topic Paper

level authorities can influence waste collection and management and recycling by establishing recycling regulations and setting the cost of waste collection and treatment within the council tax. Definition of the Green Economy 3.17 The definition of the Green Knowledge Economy as presented in the Taunton Deane EDS includes not only traditional environmental and emerging low carbon sectors but also knowledge intensive sectors like health care. These sectors have been analysed as part of the assessment of B and non-B space requirements elsewhere within this paper. We therefore analyse employment within narrow and broader definitions of low carbon sectors only in order to provide an overview of the green economy in Taunton Deane. The total green/ low carbon economy is presented graphically in the diagram below:

Figure 3.1 The Low Carbon Economy

Wider ec onomy and households

I ndustries actively utilising goods and s ervices of the Core sectors to produce their own goods and services

Core environmental technology and low carbon s ectors

Green Economy Growth Forecasts 3.18 Growth in low carbon sectors is dependent on the presence of innovating businesses and availability of relevant skills. It may therefore mimic the current structure of the economy with either service or manufacturing businesses dominating. In addition, the structure of the low carbon economy may be influenced by a major push to implement available and emerging low carbon technologies imported from other countries or from other areas outside Taunton Deane’s economy. According to ‘A Knowledge Economy Programme Report’ by C. Levy there are three scenarios that the economy may follow on the path to become low carbon: . Growth in the low carbon technologies implementation sectors (e.g. construction, transport, energy generation, waste treatment using low carbon technologies) . Manufacturing led growth in low carbon activities (e.g. turbine manufacture)

Final Report | December 2011 19 Taunton Deane Economic Topic Paper

. Low carbon services led growth (e.g. design, finance or other services for low carbon sectors or functions) 3.19 The implications of the first scenario for Taunton Deane, are that the Borough and County Councils would need to increase its promotion of green technologies, green practices and behaviour in order to induce further growth in adoption of these and would need to involve the private sector in order to help develop the services sectors around these imported technologies. The technology implementation scenario would create new jobs and would require upgrading of skills for existing jobs. This scenario has, however, a limited potential for exports at the national level and may have the same effect at the level of Taunton Deane. The early adoption of a strong low carbon technologies implementation strategy may create a window of opportunity for local businesses to acquire new skills ahead of their domestic (UK) competitors and therefore expand operations to other areas. 3.20 The second scenario, which would see the growth in the low carbon services sector, can provide more opportunities for innovation and therefore exports. Such services sectors include regulatory consultancy, low carbon design (low carbon design and architectural services), low carbon finance (both carbon credit trading and management of low carbon enterprise funds), software and computer services supporting new energy sectors, and environmental marketing. 3.21 At the local level it is however a combination of these two scenarios, which seems to provide the best possible outcome. Low carbon technology implementation is inevitable in Taunton Deane because it does not have its own manufacturing base related to renewables, energy efficient systems and equipment, or vehicles. A strong implementation activity by the Borough and County Councils would support development of the services sector as consultancy businesses may benefit from new contracts to help increase take up of recycling and energy efficient building systems. Some of the construction sector businesses like those working with electrical installations and plumbing would see a boost. This in turn would support the growth in architectural services and other consultancy activities. 3.22 Some of the opportunities relating to these scenarios have been identified in the EDS (2010). For example, establishment of ‘green champions’ to increase awareness and take up of energy and resource efficiency technologies by local businesses and opening of a Clean Energy Centre that would incorporate the existing Genesis Centre and serve as a knowledge hub for clean energy and development of sustainable (eco- ) communities. Both of these projects can be seen as low carbon implementation activities and low carbon service sector development activities. 3.23 The share of future jobs within the ‘Green sector’ can be estimated by grouping sectors in the same way as B-space and Non B-space jobs discussed in appendix 2. The forecast of green jobs under the broad definition of the low carbon economy was developed based on a ‘top-down’ projection of relevant sectors based on Cambridge Econometrics’ forecasts in combination with a ‘bottom-up’ approach when the growth rates were taken from Innovas forecasts of LCEGS sectors at the national level and in combination with the most recent local intelligence not reflected in the ABI statistics. The projections below also reflect a

Final Report | December 2011 20 Taunton Deane Economic Topic Paper

combination of two low carbon economy scenarios chosen as most suitable for Taunton Deane earlier in this paper. 3.24 Table 3.3 below shows that greening of jobs will drive the expansion of Taunton Deane’s economy and by 2027 it is expected that 43% of new jobs may fall into the category of “green jobs”. 3.25 The highest growth is projected in the Electronics sector where products that consume less electricity are increasingly developed, in the renewable and low carbon energy sector where Taunton Deane will lead in micro-generation, in building technologies, and in other business services where environmental, renewable, and other technical and management consultancy activities will be boosted. Whilst the digital and communications sectors may see little growth in direct jobs within the sector itself, they will be important drivers of the low carbon economy by reducing the need for travel and a proposed project for next generation broadband. 3.26 Local skills will need to be developed and/or attracted from outside the Taunton Deane’s travel to work area to generate business growth within the green sectors. The Firepool development will add to Taunton’s place offer potentially helping to attract highly skilled workers and retain graduates.

Table 3.3 Projected Growth in the Low Carbon Economy, Taunton Deane 2006-2027 Change ‘06-‘26 Green Sectors 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 # %

Agriculture – Alternative fuels, plant propagation 368 389 410 431 451 83 0

Sustainable construction materials - wood 183 167 150 117 100 -83 -0 Sustainable construction materials and other 382 392 447 453 452 70 0 low carbon products - Chemicals & Minerals Metals & Engineering 81 81 61 61 61 -20 -0 Energy management - Electronics 282 322 343 326 464 181 1 Recycling of metals - Other Manufacturing 299 334 372 416 464 165 1 Renewable and low carbon energy - Electricity, 456 596 519 678 885 429 1 Gas & Water Building technologies – Construction 686 756 832 887 976 291 0 Construction materials, waste and scrap - 211 225 238 256 272 62 0 Distribution Digital communications, water transport 228 231 234 238 241 13 0 Carbon finance, carbon accounting - Banking & 241 241 241 241 241 0 0 Insurance Other Business Services 4,123 4,790 5,476 6,288 7,244 3,121 1 Waste management - Miscellaneous Services 358 443 558 677 815 457 1 TOTAL GREEN JOBS 7,899 8,965 9,882 11,067 12,666 4,767 1 TOTAL JOBS 62,300 65,600 68,300 70,700 73,300 11,000 0 Green Jobs as % of total 13% 14% 14% 16% 17% 43%

Source: Cambridge Econometrics; RTP Note, though these figures for each sector are shown in detail, they should be treated with a degree of caution as they are very sensitive to local factors and subject to a range of uncertainty. They should be considered as an indication of the likely scale of outturn by 2027 rather than specific and certain numbers. 3.27 This forecast only reflects immediate low carbon opportunities. As new technologies develop and new best practice emerges, more sectors will be ‘greened’ including, for

Final Report | December 2011 21 Taunton Deane Economic Topic Paper

example, retail and tourism, which are not covered here. The EDS, in particular, refers to the development of ‘green tourism’ sector. The ultimate aim for the low carbon economy would be to have all sectors contributing towards reduction of CO2 emissions and efficient resource utilisation. Green Jobs Growth Sectors 3.28 Taunton Deane has a number of strong sectors, which could drive development of its low carbon economy. These are in energy, consultancy, waste management and recycling, and education. At the same time a major push by local authorities and through RegenSW towards low carbon practices has already shown results in terms of education (e.g. through the Genesis Centre at the Somerset College of Arts and Technology), growth of recycling, production of energy from waste (at Pool near Wellington), and so forth. Two scenarios, the first and the third from the list above, are therefore most plausible for the local economy. Energy 3.29 Onshore wind development in Taunton Deane has not been successful due to geographic features with insufficient wind speeds. Whilst there are some initiatives it is considered unlikely that the Borough would benefit from a large scale wind farm. Wind energy is more successful in Mendip, whereas Sedgemoor has a wind farm development planned near Puriton. These neighbouring developments represent opportunities for Taunton Deane’s renewable energy consultancy sector. The major waste management company Viridor manages a landfill gas energy installation near Pool, Wellington. 3.30 On 18 October 2010 the Government announced that Hinkley Point was one of the eight sites it considered suitable for future nuclear power stations.10 Electricité de France (EDF), the owners of the Hinkley Point site, are planning the development of a twin-unit European Pressurised Reactor (EPR) reactor as Hinkley Point C, alongside Hinkley Point A (Magnox), which is now closed and being decommissioned, and the Hinkley Point B (AGR), which is due for closure in 2016. EDF has submitted a planning application for site preparation works and a separate application of permission to build a temporary jetty and intends to commence work in advance of Government approval for the project. 3.31 The new Hinkley Point C – if approved - will be built over six years, and will employ between 600-900 staff when fully operational and will require up to 5,000 employees at peak times during the construction phase. Clearly this represents a major opportunity for the sub-region in terms of employment and business development opportunities, increased local spend, and the potential to develop a hub of expertise in energy construction, generation and distribution technologies. 3.32 Clearly much of this economic activity – particularly in construction employment and project management - will be located on site or close to Hinkley Point. Bridgwater is already established as the site of an EDF local office and Bridgwater College is leading the South West hub of the Nuclear Skills Academy, initially focussing work on skills to support

10 See ONLINE: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hinkley_Point_C_nuclear_power_station#cite_note-2

Final Report | December 2011 22 Taunton Deane Economic Topic Paper

decommissioning of Hinkley A. Large parts of the supply chain will also be located further away, some in other parts of Europe where specialist equipment will be manufactured. 3.33 However, there may be opportunities for Taunton. It is possible that local offices for various businesses within the supply chain, such as design, procurement or project management, may chose to locate in Taunton; and some elements of the construction phase, such as local specialist fabrication or storage/supply of equipment or fittings may be usefully located at Taunton. TDBC will need to work closely with EDF, Sedgemoor DC and contractors and suppliers to identify particular site/premises needs; and should ensure that there is an available supply of suitable good quality opportunities (as is reflected elsewhere in this report). In the longer term, Taunton should seek to integrate its focus on development of the Green Knowledge Economy with the new experience and skills developed through the Hinckley Point projects, particularly through the work of the College and other initiatives around renewable energy and sustainable development. 3.34 Overall Taunton Deane cannot match energy developments in Sedgemoor where construction of the Hinckley Point C, CCGT power station, and a windfarm near Puriton will add hundreds of MW of electricity to the grid and a significant number of jobs. However, Taunton Deane will benefit from its proximity to these energy projects, and in particular this should include participation of local businesses in the new nuclear build. 3.35 There is considerable potential to develop micro-generation at the Brendon Energy Project, and this could then provide a model for other projects. The feed-in-tariff will drive such projects and the Council should support these initiatives to facilitate faster emergence of the sector. It is purely a low carbon technology implementation sector but can create sufficient capacity and skills to export its expertise elsewhere if developed ahead of other areas. 3.36 Micro-generation represents an important future low carbon sector in Taunton Deane, and the feed-in tariff represents one increasingly important regulatory driver that will ensure the success of micro-generation. Consultancy and Other Business Services 3.37 The Borough’s service sector has been leading the growth and Taunton Deane has a number of renewable energy and green management consultancies. The Other Business Services sector, including technical, architectural and management consultancy, is a growing sector in Taunton Deane. It is driven by in-migration as highly skilled people choose the Borough’s picturesque countryside to move out of London and other large cities. There are more businesses in the business and management consultancy than in any other industry in the Borough. There is a potential for these consulting businesses to tap into the opportunities represented by energy developments in the neighbouring Sedgemoor and future expansion of Taunton. Waste 3.38 Waste management and recycling are strong sectors in Taunton Deane and have been growing during the last decade. The sector’s key player is a national company Viridor, involved in waste collection, treatment, and waste-to-energy power generation. However

Final Report | December 2011 23 Taunton Deane Economic Topic Paper

there are more businesses dealing with waste and recycling and this diversity needs to be supported and encouraged. Manufacturing 3.39 The Manufacturing sector in Taunton Deane has been steadily declining (by 39% since 1998 or by 5% annually). Whilst it retains major manufacturing employers Swallowfield and Relyon, it does not have a sufficient base to catalyse successful manufacturing of equipment for renewables or low carbon/energy efficient machinery, equipment, and appliances. Education 3.40 The above definition of the low carbon economy does not include some of the knowledge sectors that form the Green Knowledge Economy as defined in the EDS, most notably the education sector. 3.41 The Education sector is leading the transition to the low carbon economy through the sustainable construction hub known as the ‘Genesis Centre’. The Genesis Centre will be a key player in upgrading the skills of employees in construction, landscaping, and micro- generation sectors. The EDS indicated that there are further ideas to expand the centre into the Clean Energy Centre for Sustainable Communities, which would also represent first steps towards the Somerset University. At present, however, the Somerset University Project is moving very slowly, in particular due to funding uncertainties. 3.42 With limited resources it would be optimal to focus on the Genesis Centre and support its new projects, expansion, and involvement with local businesses. Given its prominent position within Somerset College, research and development should be encouraged to increase its influence on the development of low carbon service sectors and clean manufacturing beyond education about the implementation of existing technologies (as discussed in the low carbon economy scenarios above).

Final Report | December 2011 24 Taunton Deane Economic Topic Paper

4 EMPLOYMENT SPACE REQUIREMENTS Introduction 4.1 This Section forecasts the market requirement for employment floorspace and land space, based on the target employment projections discussed in Sections 2 and 3. We look at B- space and Non B-space and discuss requirements to support the Green economy sector. 4.2 The analysis focuses on a 21 year planning horizon, from 2006 to 2027.

B-Space Requirements 4.3 Using standard B-space conversion ratios identified in Appendix 2, Table 4.1 below converts the employment figures in Section 2 into B-space floorspace requirements.

Table 4.1 Taunton Deane B-space Floorspace Requirements, 2006-2027, Sq M

Change 2006-11 2012-16 2017-21 2022-27 2006-27 Total Industrial -4,646 -2,365 -8,629 644 -14,996 Warehousing 9,112 9,068 11,652 10,497 40,328 Total Industrial/warehousing 4,465 6,703 3,023 11,141 25,332 Total Offices 11,417 7,112 8,760 9,619 36,909 Total B-space 15,883 13,815 11,783 20,760 62,241

Source: Cambridge Econometrics, RTP

4.4 The numbers presented here are the quantified conversions of employment projection to floorspace requirement – the difference between gains and losses of each type of employment space - based on the current snapshot in time. It is important to note that all calculations refer to net change in employment (the stock of jobs), which is the difference between jobs lost and jobs gained. The corresponding net change in the floorspace stock is the difference between floorspace gained, mostly from new development, and floorspace lost (for example, where industrial sites are cleared and redeveloped for other uses). 4.5 But real-life planning decisions will be about gross changes, comprising both gains and losses of employment space, and will take account of qualitative features as well as the quantity of space. Therefore in planning sites to meet demand, there is an additional requirement for flexibility since occupiers will not just go where you put them and there will be "churn" within the existing stock of premises. Churn is the normal re-occupation of space by businesses requiring a different size or type of premises. Flexibility and churn are considered further in paragraphs 4.10 to 4.12 below. Industrial Warehousing Floorspace Requirements 4.6 Production and distribution space jobs (industrial and warehousing) have been merged into one category, called “industrial/warehousing”. This is because data on the supply of space - such as CLG floorspace statistics and planning data on completions and commitments – rarely distinguish accurately between industrial factories and warehouses. This is not surprising since production and distribution can generally operate in the same buildings

Final Report | December 2011 25 Taunton Deane Economic Topic Paper

and, furthermore, subject to size limitations, space can be transferred between production and distribution without planning permission. 4.7 Over the planning period, the industrial floorspace requirement is expected to fall by around 15,000 sq m based on the trend projections which have been low in TDBC for a good number of years. In contrast, the required warehousing floorspace increases by 40,300 sq m. This sums to a net change in requirements of 25,300 sq m in industrial/warehousing floorspace, which based on the typical plot ratio (floorspace to land area) in Taunton Deane borough of 25%, would require some 10 hectares of net additional employment land supply. Office Floorspace Requirements 4.8 Based on employment projections alone, office floorspace requirements increase around 36,900 sq m by 2027. As explained in Appendix 2, it is more difficult to provide a land estimate for offices since plot ratios will differ widely from out of town office park locations to town centre locations. Therefore we only provide floorspace figures for offices. 4.9 In terms of locations for new offices, all strategic allocations should be within the Taunton Urban Area. Also, town centre locations would be preferred and more in line with the national guidance (PPS4) described in Section 2, with potential to achieve higher plot ratio densities so that the total land requirement may be less. Frictional Employment Land Requirements 4.10 There is a need for a ‘frictional margin’ of employment land to be always available to avoid constraining business growth and investment. This margin should cover the minimum amount of land in the planning and development pipeline at any one time, irrespective of whether new employment is occurring or not. This is because the ‘frictional’ margin is needed to provide room for employment expansion or natural churn, whereby old/obsolete stock is replaced by new irrespective of employment change. 4.11 To measure this requirement, albeit to provide an indicative rather than exact margin which would be uncertain, the annual gross take-up (i.e. completions) times the average time that floorspace spends in the pipeline waiting for planning permission, infrastructure and development may be appropriate. So if the average time between a site being allocated or permitted for development and building completion on the site is one year, then at any one time the land in the pipeline should equal one year’s take-up (thus providing a ready supply). If sites take two years to go through the pipeline, then at any one time two years take-up will be in the pipeline, and so forth. 4.12 In Taunton Deane, three years is assumed to be typically adequate time for achieving planning consent, site preparation and construction. This is then multiplied against the average annual gross completion of B class floorspace in Taunton Deane over the past ten years, as taken from the Employment Land Monitor 2010. The resulting frictional margin is therefore 25,500 sq m (or 10.2 ha) of industrial/warehousing space and 9,150 sq m of office space on top of requirements based on future employment growth. 4.13 Subject to later reviews, this is the estimated level of frictional planned supply that should be made available at any point of time.

Final Report | December 2011 26 Taunton Deane Economic Topic Paper

Total B-space Requirements and Planned Supply 4.14 In summary, as shown in Table 4.2, some 51,000 sq m (20.3 ha) of industrial/warehousing space and 46,100 sq m of office floorspace should be allocated to meet future forecast quantifiable requirements over the 21 year plan period to 2027. This is to meet the target net growth of 2,500 in B-space jobs plus the frictional requirement for readily available land described above.

Table 4.2 Total B-space Requirements, 2006 to 2027

Employment Frictional Total change requirement requirements Sq m Ha Sq m Ha Sq m Ha Total Industrial/warehousing 25,332 10.1 25,500 10.2 50,832 20.3 Total Offices 36,909 - 9,150 - 46,059 - Total B-space 62,241 - 34,650 - 96,891 -

Source: RTP, TDBC

4.15 The next Section will consider the sites planned for B-space development within Taunton Deane11, in terms of their fit with future market requirements, and short term deliverability, especially in the Taunton Urban Area (TUA) where past potential for B-space development within TUA may have been constrained by the limited supply of good quality employment land and premises, reducing the potential for business expansion within the TUA. This is why the total forecast requirement includes demand for land that is deliverable, to provide for choice and friction within the planned supply. 4.16 Lastly, future land allocations should offer a good short term supply that provides a full range of opportunities, e.g. suite size (small and large) and tenure (including freehold plots which tends to be in short supply), where possible. Consequently within TUA there may be a case for bringing forward more land than the above requirement suggests. These and other qualitative points are looked at further in Section 5.

Non B-Class Requirements 4.17 Some of the existing planned employment land supply may be required for other forms of employment (i.e. non B-space) uses, which are briefly considered here. 4.18 In line with the approach for B-space above (and described further in Appendix 2), employment densities12 are used to convert the non-B-space sector jobs identified in Section 3 into notional additional non B-space floorspace requirements. The results are summarised in Table 4.3 and described below.

11These are sites with an outstanding planning permission for employment uses (i.e. commitments) and development plan employment land allocations without permissions. 12 These are based on densities listed in the Arup (2001) Full Guide on Employment Densities report.

Final Report | December 2011 27 Taunton Deane Economic Topic Paper

Table 4.3 Taunton Deane Non B-space Floorspace Requirements, 2006-2027, Sq M

Change 2006-11 2012-16 2017-21 2022-27 2006-27 A1, A3, A4, A5 Shops, Restaurants, Bars, Hot Food 24,050 29,100 26,850 80,000 Takeaways* C1 Hotels 83 55 55 55 249 C2 Residential Institutions (health 20,509 16,407 12,305 12,305 61,527 and social care) D1 Non-Residential Institutions 17,051 14,033 10,525 10,525 52,134 (education, health practices) D2 Assembly and Leisure 7,506 10,008 7,506 7,506 32,526 Sui Generis 4,342 1,448 -189 -1,350 4,250 Total Non B-space Sectors 49,490 66,001 59,302 55,892 230,686

Source: Cambridge Econometrics; RTP

*These figures are taken from the draft RTP Taunton Deane Retail Leisure Study. NB: the required floorspace figures in the first period covers 2010-16 because this is the way the draft Retail Leisure Study analysis the data. Retail, Catering, Hotels and Leisure 4.19 The floorspace requirements for the A land use classes covering net additional jobs in Shops and Restaurants, etc, is estimated to be some 40,000 sq m of net internal space (or approximately 50,000 sq m gross internal). While this provides an indication on future space requirements based on meeting the overall 11,000 job growth target, a more informed assessment of floorspace requirement for these uses (based on population and spending pattern changes) can be derived from the Taunton Deane Retail Study being carried out by RTP. 4.20 The emerging Retail Study findings show a maximum requirement of 80,000 sq m gross floorspace for retail shops, food and drink. These figures are included in the floorspace requirement estimates in Table 4.3. 4.21 Hotel jobs are more reliably converted into floorspace based on the bed spaces rather than floorspace. The jobs growth in the C1 Hotels use class is expected to require additional 249 bedroom space to 2027. This is in line with current plans in Taunton for new hotel provision in the Borough. 4.22 The leisure sector is largely represented in the D2 land use class. The total floorspace requirement is for an additional 32,500 sq m of Assembly and Leisure floorspace. 4.23 Most of the retail, catering, hotel and leisure space should be accommodated either close to population settlements or within town centres to complement retail services and to capture maximum spending. Some additional space should also be planned within the proposed Taunton urban extensions and Monkton Heathfield district centre to accommodate the population growth within the new extensions to the town to support more sustainable development.

Final Report | December 2011 28 Taunton Deane Economic Topic Paper

Residential Institutions 4.24 The growth in C2 Residential Institutions represents mainly growth in hospitals and residential care institutions. It is quite strong in Taunton Deane with a potential requirement for additional 61,500 sq m of gross floorspace based on the projected number of jobs. 4.25 We expect to see continued growth in employment alongside change in the way health services are delivered, and potentially some technical change in the sectors identified. It will be important to plan and respond to the need for new sites and premises across the Borough in order to support service delivery and administrative/ support services within the sector, and to maximise the economic value of this strong existing sector. 4.26 Such institutions are likely to locate anywhere, although there is likely to be some benefit in having easy access to facilities and families. In terms of supply, residential institution land could be met by redeveloping parts of the existing Musgrove hospital site and town centre sites (including student accommodation at Tangier). Communal uses such as sheltered housing and old peoples homes should be considered within new extensions to the town and Monkton Heathfield district centre to support more sustainable development and more work opportunities within these new districts. Education 4.27 The Education sector, and social care, is represented in the D1 Non-Residential Institutions use class. Based on the growth in education and social care jobs, the total floorspace requirement is for an additional 52,000 sq m of floorspace in non residential institutions. 4.28 Such institutions are likely to locate close to urban areas next to, or within easy reach of, residential areas, where demand for education and social care will be stronger. Most of this new space should be in the TUA where the largest population resides, and also the Taunton urban extensions to accommodate the additional population growth. Other (Non B-space Sui Generis) Activities 4.29 Floorspace estimates do not normally include sectors like Agriculture, Construction, Defence (military activities), Electricity, Gas, and Water, Transport and Telecommunications, and some of the Miscellaneous Services, because they are likely to fall under Sui Generis land use classes.13 However, it is possible for some of these Sui Generis sectors to be included in the B-space estimates, and some such uses are already included to provide a requirement for employment land allocations. 4.30 The remaining sui generis sectors that do not yet have a specified land requirement could be expected to generate requirements for some 4,250 sq m of net additional floorspace, and could be accommodated in some of the existing employment areas and future employment land allocations or permissions subject to normal planning considerations.

13 The B-space definition includes some Sui Generis uses like Retail sale and repair and maintenance of motor vehicles, Retail sale of automotive fuel, Canteens and catering, and Other business services (renting of machinery and industrial cleaning). This is because car garages, showrooms, and other business services businesses are usually found in industrial trading estates whereas Canteens and catering activities are hidden within some industrial space.

Final Report | December 2011 29 Taunton Deane Economic Topic Paper

Total Non B-space Requirements and Planned Supply 4.31 In summary, some 231,000 sq m of required floorspace is estimated for the target growth in the Non B-space sector jobs identified in Section 3. Most of the expansion of non B-space is likely to be accommodated on existing use sites – i.e. town centre retail, hospitals and education expansion - and implemented through AAPs; and some may be able to be accommodated within allocated B-space land through mixed use schemes subject to planning. 4.32 Taunton town centre is vitally important to the future strength and role of Taunton Deane. If Taunton is to thrive, the town centre must be a vibrant, active, mixed-use, high quality place which is attractive to residents, businesses and visitors. A key part of securing this mix is the growth in office-based jobs, alongside growth in retail and service employment. These are the sectors where we expect to see highest rates of growth, including well-paid, skilled jobs in modern sectors of the economy. 4.33 There are well-developed plans for suitable employment sites, particularly at Firepool but also Tangier and others. The town centre is the most appropriate – indeed essential – location for these jobs and this form of development. It is important that these sites are built out as soon as possible, to add to the overall vitality of the town centre and to meet demand for modern business accommodation. It is important that the development process for these sites is not undermined by uncertainty or by piecemeal development in less appropriate locations. We therefore recommend that in the first few years of the Core Strategy, there is a clear focus on completing development in Taunton town and that other similar forms of development should not be considered elsewhere. After approximately five years, around 2016, it would be appropriate to review progress with the town centre development programme (hopefully in more stable economic times), and to consider the most appropriate strategy for the following 10 years or so.

Green Economy Space Requirements 4.34 The Taunton Deane Economic Development Strategy is strongly focussed on Green jobs and, as discussed in the previous Section, these jobs do not easily relate to land use class definitions because Green jobs have neither a specific land use class nor any specific land use implications. Therefore planning for these jobs may be more appropriate to the EDS where it is already considered in detail and less so in this Core Strategy Economic Topic Paper. Nevertheless, we do consider some of the actions in the EDS in terms of land use implications. 4.35 However, the Core strategy can support these sectors by planning for the right conditions to support and attract investment. Many of the low carbon jobs will be B-space jobs dominated by Other Business Services sectors. It will therefore be important for the Council to not only provide sufficient land allocations but also create the right conditions for such businesses to flourish in the Borough. This will include high quality business parks, with knowledge transfer facilities, like shared meeting rooms, to attract knowledge sectors. 4.36 Initiatives outlined in the EDS include Taunton Enterprise Hub, which would house and support green businesses, and New Earth Ltd’s proposal for the Taunton Eco- business/Innovation Campus in Monkton Heathfield. The former requires further

Final Report | December 2011 30 Taunton Deane Economic Topic Paper

investigation in terms of market demand as it seems to be a hub based on a business centre model. 4.37 To support the growth of Green jobs, initiatives identified in the EDS can be linked to the development of the urban extensions in Taunton. For example, if TDBC is to attain its GKE economic development aspirations it will need to attract some additional design and process (manufacturing) activities in low carbon technologies. To assist this, a flagship business park site that is strategically well located to Taunton will help attract new investment. This can also be used to provide space for an eco-business/innovation campus cluster supported by the Genesis Centre, which could be involved in sustainable design and training for local construction businesses to meet the demand for new skills. In particular, the development of Monkton Heathfield urban extension may provide a number of attractive land opportunities. The proposed Taunton urban extensions are a great opportunity for the Genesis Centre. 4.38 Early proposals for urban extensions around Taunton are similar in scale to that of an ‘eco- town’, and as such these developments may be expected to implement new low carbon technologies such as a decentralised CHP scheme. It is also recommended that the new urban extensions in Taunton are developed with micro-generation in mind capitalising on accumulated experience from the Brendon Energy Project. Projects like Brendon Energy Project and the CHP scheme for Monkton Heathfield will not only create new jobs but if developed successfully can allow local firms/social enterprises to export acquired expertise elsewhere. 4.39 The Borough Council should encourage eco-town standards for urban extensions in terms of waste management through its procurement processes. Similarly, space may be required to accommodate expansion in recyclable waste management and re-use. With the need for good strategic and local access, the location of such sites will be important to Taunton Deane. However, given the nature of these forms of developments, new waste facilities should be accommodated some distance from neighbouring residential and high quality employment uses. 4.40 An action in the EDS to deliver green jobs is a green infrastructure project between Taunton and Bridgwater. This would require collaboration between the two local authorities to facilitate green travel along the A38 road between two towns, providing an attractive inner corridor, improving cycle lanes, promoting healthy lifestyles among the local population and facilitating the tourism sector. Local businesses engaged in landscaping, architectural and environmental sectors could potentially benefit from such infrastructure projects to become a truly local initiative. 4.41 Support is required in terms of planning and part-funding, and because of the timescale warranted by infrastructure projects, this would require early planning, and therefore should feature in the emerging Core Strategy to ensure its developments within the medium to longer term.

Final Report | December 2011 31 Taunton Deane Economic Topic Paper

5 EMPLOYMENT SITES Introduction 5.1 This Section provides a market overview for Taunton Deane Borough, followed by qualitative and quantitative assessments of the local employment land supply. This work is based on a market review carried out by Strutt & Parker and site appraisals undertaken primarily by Roger Tym & Partners with some comments from Strutt & Parker. 5.2 The assessment considers the land supply for B-class and similar land uses. This space is normally covers offices, industrial and warehousing land and buildings, and collectively is described as ‘B-space’ or ‘employment’ uses. These uses accommodate around four in ten jobs nationally and slightly fewer in Taunton Deane Borough. However, as noted in the previous section, there may be scope for reconsidering some employment land allocations for non B-space employment uses, although this would need to be subject to planning conditions.

Market Overview of Employment Space 5.3 In general terms, with Blackbrook Business Park approaching the end of its life in terms of availability of land and buildings from a new build point of view, there is very little viable land earmarked for development in accessible locations around Taunton urban area. This is a problem that Taunton has had for many years, and it is unresolved. The success of Chelston Business Park, Wellington, is very largely due to the fact that Taunton occupiers have little choice when seeking the premises they want, but to go to Wellington. The proximity to the M5 Junction 26 is also a very desirable attribute for Wellington. This shortage of choice of large strategically located employment sites represents a key constraint on achieving the projected growth in job numbers unless it can be successfully resolved. 5.4 It is understood that currently the Highways Agency will object to new Motorway junctions on the M5 although this remains an important aspiration of TDBC in order to enhance Taunton’s economy. The future employment growth in Taunton Urban Area (TUA) will most probably require both an enhancement of the existing capacity of Junction 25 together with provision of a new junction at some stage in the future. The Office Market 5.5 The office market in the Borough over the last 12 months has seen the professional and service sectors continue to provide the majority of take up with a further reduced level of interest from the public sector. Demand remains stable for the out of town market, with Blackbrook Business Park leading the way. A number of long standing town centre requirements remain unsatisfied. 5.6 In terms of supply during the same period, there has been a higher than average level of lower grade stock in the town centre. This has led to a continued shortage of Grade A supply which is going to continue until the market sees improvements in the economy and there is a return of speculative development through developer confidence. However, a well

Final Report | December 2011 32 Taunton Deane Economic Topic Paper

promoted offering at the smaller size ranges (10-30,000 sq ft) may attract pre-letting interest. 5.7 Office space is probably the most difficult development sector at the moment with a lack of active enquiries across the sector from Grade A offices at Blackbrook Business Park through to essentially period, centrally heated basic space in the town centre. Rents have fallen back from a peak of about £16.50 per sq ft at Blackbrook Business Park, to circa £15 per sq ft currently, although again there is no clear evidence over the past six months of significant deals to substantiate this. Reasonable quality town centre space that was achieving £11 per sq ft is now struggling to attract tenants at £8 per sq ft. A new development in the town centre would need to command a rent similar or better than those already achieved at Blackbrook. The Industrial Market 5.8 In 2009 the industrial market saw a further decline in freehold acquisitions due to occupiers’ perception and reaction to the economic decline. The majority of enquires were for larger manufacturing and distribution facilities. The only development that occurred throughout the year was due to developers agreeing presales and pre-lets prior to being on site. 5.9 The headline rents have remained stable, although the incentives offered to prospective tenants on these deals would have increased, leading to a decreased net effective level of rent. The rental levels on good quality stock will remain stable. 5.10 The industrial sector has seen values maintained and has probably fared better, principally due to a lack of stock in Taunton urban area. Second hand space has seen rents fall back from the circa £5.50 per sq ft to £4.50 per sq ft mark but good quality newer space is still £6.00 - £6.50 per sq ft on the outskirts of the town. 5.11 Overall, in the future, employment land opportunities will need to provide some sites for land sales, as currently there are limited options for small companies looking to have an ‘owner occupier’ facility. In the short term only a few of these are viable opportunities. Apart from the healthcare/public sector, Taunton has seen other growth areas capture the more high tech occupiers. TUA has the opportunity to achieve broader-based growth across a wider range of employment sectors, both in the town centre (principally at Firepool) and at a strategic employment site. The latter should provide scope for B1(c)/B2 & B8 occupiers, but this will be dependent on appropriate infrastructure being in place and improved strategic road accessibility, particularly for B8 uses. 5.12 By way of example: Robert Wiseman’s Dairies, who were previously located in Okehampton approximately 60 miles to the South West of Taunton, moved and opened a new facility in Bridgwater (2007). They acquired circa 9 acres for £4.5million, and although they talked to developers/owners in the Taunton/Wellington area, they were unable to strike a deal because the occupier’s preference was for a freehold land purchase and there were no landowners willing to do a deal on this basis at a market level. Taunton Urban Area (TUA) 5.13 In terms of the economy generally, Taunton, as previously noted, is heavily reliant on the healthcare sector and the public sector, both of which are likely to be in for cuts over the

Final Report | December 2011 33 Taunton Deane Economic Topic Paper

coming years and therefore this could limit demand for Taunton in the short term. There will be the continuing lack of demand from the commercial ‘private’ sector, combined with a reduction in employment opportunities and space requirements from the public sector over the next 2-3 years. 5.14 We should emphasise the importance of improved road accessibility. There have been a number of sites that have simply failed to come forward in Taunton due to poor accessibility and limited availability of infrastructure. This is one of the reasons for the success of Blackbrook Business Park over town centre opportunities; as of course the immediate road access to the M5 at Junction 25 is a significant benefit to occupiers. This also demonstrates that in the right economic and market conditions, there is demand for good quality well located office space from the private sector. 5.15 There are significant opportunities for offices going forward, particularly at Firepool – and to a lesser extent around Tangier. Some (more limited) new offices would also be appropriate at Monkton Heathfield district centre, in the longer term. Wellington 5.16 Wellington is a much smaller industrial town in the Borough, and is still largely dependent on industry. One of the key occupiers in the area is Swallowfield Plc who benefited from the growth of own-brand products during the 1970s and now produces aerosol, cosmetic and toiletry products. Relyon is another Wellington based company which manufactures beds and employs some 400 people. In 2001 it was acquired by Steinhoff International Holdings Ltd, a quoted South African group. These are just a couple of the well established occupiers that are still based in Wellington. 5.17 Westpark 26, located at Junction 26 of the M5, which is currently being developed by Summerfield Developments, is a mixed use site. The majority of the scheme has been allocated for industrial uses, although there is planning permission for an office village scheme which will follow the design of Chelston Business Park, a scheme the Company previously developed. Other sites in Wellington, such as Ryelands Farm on the edge of Rockwell Green, also present industrial opportunities. However the size of plots on this site and accessibility do not compare to Westpark 26.

Qualitative Assessment of Sites 5.18 The assessment covers the remaining employment allocations in the Taunton Deane Local Plan and those sites with outstanding planning permissions. 5.19 Each site was assessed on the basis of a visual audit and inspection by RTP and some by Strutt & Parker between July and August 2010, together with desk research. This assessment considers the following key factors: . Accessibility – the proximity of a site to the strategic road network (motorway junctions, and primary A roads), local access, and public transport network via a train station, which are important location factors both for industrial and office occupiers. This is ranked from 1 indicating very poor access to 5 indicating very good access. . Environment – reviewing the external environment of employment areas, with regards to prominence the internal layout of the employment area; and the nature and extent of

Final Report | December 2011 34 Taunton Deane Economic Topic Paper

the site’s neighbouring uses, in particular considering the likely risk of conflict arising from existing or potential future employment uses on the area and any environmental land designation considerations. . Market conditions/perception and demand – the type of use the sites would attract and likely market demand given site size and potential to come forward, surrounding uses, and site layout. . Indicative Phasing - an indication on the when the site is likely to be come forward over the life of the Plan is based on site characteristics and demand. Taunton Urban Area (TTa1) Blackbrook 5.20 This is a 0.76 ha greenfield site, and only one of two sites remaining on the popular Blackbrook Estate. It has been available over the short term, offering a good site, on flat land and easy access to the motorway junction. It also has good visual presence. This site would be a short term opportunity for office occupiers. The site has planning permission for 3,500 sq m of office floorspace. This site is immediately available and could support growth in the short term. (TTa3) Blackbrook 5.21 This is a small greenfield site that has been available over the short term. However, the site is land locked and can only be accessed by Clarke Willmott on an adjacent site. It is therefore natural expansion space, but would not work for a separate occupier. 5.22 This site should therefore not be considered as an employment allocation but monitored to assess whether it could be used for expansion space. (TTa5) Taunton East Goods Yard 5.23 Taunton East Goods Yard (TTa5) is a 0.35 ha brownfield site that has been available over the short term. This site is between Firepool and the railway lines, and offers a good location for B1(c) small workshop uses in close proximity to the train station. It has an outline planning permission but its deliverability and the rate at when it can come forward will depend on the NIDR, which is needed to open the site up for occupiers. Its success will also be partly dependent on Firepool's progress. 5.24 This site is a medium term potential employment site. It is likely to support occupier demand for office and workshop type uses, offering capacity for some 4,580 sq m of employment floorspace. (TTa6) Taunton East Goods Yard 5.25 Taunton East Goods Yard (TTa6) is a 0.55 ha brownfield site that has been available over the short term. This site is an adjacent parcel to the north of site TTa5. It has the similar physical, locational and demand conditions as Site TTa5 and would likely to be part of a subsequent phase following completion of TTa5. 5.26 It offers a long term opportunity site for employment uses and therefore should be at least partly allocated for employment uses.

Final Report | December 2011 35 Taunton Deane Economic Topic Paper

5.27 This site is likely to support occupier demand for office and workshop uses, with capacity for some 7,200 sq m of employment floorspace. This site is likely to support employment growth over the medium to long term. (TTa7) Firepool 5.28 Firepool is a 9.04 ha strategic brownfield site (the former cattle market site) that has been available over the short term. The site lies to the north of the town centre and adjacent to the railway. This is the best opportunity to create a comprehensive office-led mixed use development to attract inward investment and promote a viable alternative to out of town. 5.29 Firepool will need to follow a phased development because of existing access constraints and to avoid flooding the market in the short term. The site comprises two parcels, either side of the canal. One is the old cattle market site and the other is former market car parking accessed off Priory Bridge Road. The latter could be developed in the short term with access off Priory Bridge Road. The former could only be partly developed off this road and to be fully implemented it needs the NIDR. 5.30 This site is likely to meet occupier demand for a wider range of available floorspace from 1,000 sq m upwards in a range of sizes of office suites, with a potential capacity for some 47,000 sq m of total office floorspace. This is likely to support growth over the short to medium term and provide a range of different sizes of office. There is a recent planning permission for the development of about 2 ha providing some 10,500 square metres of floorspace. In the short term this is likely to be the most that could be brought forward without provision of the NIDR. (TTa8) Priorswood 5.31 Priorswood is a 1.8 ha brownfield site in Taunton that has been available over the long term. This site is located to the north of the railway line opposite Firepool and the Goods Yard. It is currently in use for railway operations. We are not aware of any immediate plans for Network Rail to dispose or re-use the land for employment uses, nor would we expect that it could generate sufficient land value to support the costs of redevelopment for further employment uses. 5.32 There are already jobs on site and this site should not be identified as available land for additional employment generating uses within the short term. This site is unlikely to become available until the medium to long term, if at all. (TTa9) Tangier 5.33 Tangier is a 2.8 ha brownfield site within an Action Area which envisages a mix of uses including offices. The site’s accessibility will be much improved with the construction of the new Third Way road and bridge which are under construction; this will enhance the deliverability of development, mainly for housing and college uses, and some limited office development. 5.34 Project Taunton informs us that there is potential for smaller, high quality town centre office units serving the cultural and professional business market. There is one site owned by TDBC measuring some 0.3 ha which would be suitable for office development with site

Final Report | December 2011 36 Taunton Deane Economic Topic Paper

capacity for some 8,000 sq m of employment floorspace. This is likely to support growth in the medium term. (TTa10, 11) Coal Orchard/Morrisons 5.35 Coal Orchard/Morrisons is a combination of three sites either side of the River Tone totalling 4.1 ha. These are brownfield sites with existing retail, leisure and car park uses. The site is located in an attractive part of central Taunton. 5.36 Despite some of the land being under the Council’s ownership, an existing theatre on the site along with Morrisons supermarket and associated car parking limit the realistic availability of land and the viability of redevelopment. The Morrisons site is not available except at a cost which would prevent development. Moreover, the existing retail use is an appropriate town centre use. There is little prospect of the Morrison’s car park site becoming available except for intensification of retail use associated with decked parking and it should not be considered an available B class employment site for the foreseeable future. 5.37 Project Taunton has informed us of potential development options for the Coal Orchard car park site. Some of these options include redevelopment of the swimming pool and theatre. Given current market conditions it is possible that options involving high redevelopment costs may not proceed. Consequently for the purposes of this Topic Paper, we assume that the theatre is unlikely to be redeveloped. A more limited development site of about 0.75 ha could be brought forward with a mixed use scheme that has already been identified, which includes some 1,600 sq m of retail/leisure, 1,300 sq m of office space and 1,500 sq m for live/work space. 5.38 Given the adjacent Firepool development, this site is likely to offer an attractive location as a cultural area offering specialist activities with secondary rather than prime rents. (RHe1, 2, 3) Henlade 5.39 Henlade, to the west of Taunton, is a potential employment allocation totalling some 12 ha, across three distinct sites. These sites have been available over the long term. Tarmac, the owners operating in the immediate area have given no indication of an intention to develop these parcels, which are not immediately available except as an expansion of Tarmac's own minerals activities. These sites should therefore not be specifically allocated for employment use. 5.40 In addition to these sites TDBC, as part of its Core Strategy work, has been considering a major employment allocation to the south west of the A358 near the park and ride facility. A planning and environmental evaluation of the merits of this site is being undertaken as part of the UES Study. For the purposes of this Topic Paper we can say that, whilst this location might appear to represent a potential strategic employment location, in theory, in practice there are a number of important constraints; namely the strong objections from the Environment Agency and the Highways Agency and the limited capacity of Junction 25 of the M5. 5.41 We have not undertaken the work to assess the full cost of overcoming the objections raised from these two agencies, but it is clear that very substantial road and bridgeworks

Final Report | December 2011 37 Taunton Deane Economic Topic Paper

would be required together with the major cost of funding an upgrade to Junction 25. And these would not be the only works required to meet the full range of objections from other parties. Consequently, it is evident that this site could not be delivered in the short term to meet the immediate requirement for a new strategic employment site in Taunton urban area. (TCF1) Toneway 5.42 Toneway is a 0.25 ha brownfield site that has been available over the short term. The site is located close to the railway line and other commercial uses, but it has relatively poor road links. It is also partially designated as a local nature reserve. There are existing low value storage uses on the site and we do not expect that it would deliver any new employment uses since the site offers little value for redeveloping solely for employment uses. 5.43 The site offers potential for developing the creative sector market, possibly through a mixed uses scheme, but at this present time no net additional employment uses are expected. (TCF2) Priorswood landfill 5.44 Priorswood landfill is a 1.39 ha ex-landfill site that has been available over the short term. It has no real scope for developing employment uses because of potential contamination issues and poor road access. The site might assist expansion of the adjacent recycling centre but it is realistically not available for employment use and should not be allocated. (TCF3) Crown Estate 5.45 This site which appears to have been cleared and partly developed is a 1.95 ha greenfield site that has been available over the short term. This site has two parcels, both with planning permission for employment uses. 5.46 These sites should be considered for employment use allocation if not already built. This site is likely to support occupier demand for Industrial/warehousing uses and offers capacity for some 4,875 sq m of employment floorspace. (TCF4) Crown Estate 5.47 This is a 4.1 ha site that has been available over the short term. Previously a landfill site and therefore subject to contamination and foundation issues. As with the Priorswood landfill site it is only likely to be used in association with the nearby recycling activities and should not be allocated for employment use. (TMh1) Monkton Heathfield 5.48 The current Monkton Heathfield Local Plan allocation amounts to 14 ha in a greenfield location. The allocation covers two sites, Langaller Manor Farm and the Hatcheries which provides a small parcel for employment use. Neither of these sites provide the potential for a large scale strategic employment site with much enhanced road access. However, given the reasonably good local access to the Hatcheries from the A38, this site could still provide some potential employment supply not requiring strategic road access improvements to meet local demand. 5.49 The general southern Monkton Heathfield urban extension area (not Langaller) in theory could offer the prospect of providing a new strategically located business park site for the

Final Report | December 2011 38 Taunton Deane Economic Topic Paper

TUA catering for B1(c), B2 and B8 uses, which is free of significant planning constraints and which is potentially capable of being brought forward in the medium term to meet demand for improved premises and freehold plots. However, this prospect is unlikely to materialise without the provision of enhanced strategic road access from the motorway, together with improved public transport. Access could be from a new Tone Causeway crossing near junction 25 of the M5 and also from the A38. The UES study has considered the merits and costs of these access concepts. 5.50 It is apparent that the Tone causeway crossing would be a relatively high cost infrastructure item and, in addition, an improvement of Junction 25 would also be required. A strategic access off the A38 would also require improvements to Junction 25, together with the Creech Castle roundabout and strengthening and widening of the bridges at Bathpool. The costs associated with these collective improvements would also be difficult to justify on grounds of transport benefits and “fund-ability” in the current climate. 5.51 Consequently, we conclude that, in the short term, the transport costs associated with the implementation of a strategic employment site at southern Monkton Heathfield are considerable and, consequently, there is little potential for progressing a large scale employment allocation in the southern portion of Monkton Heathfield. However, there may be the potential for bringing forward a large scale employment site on the northern extremity of Monkton Heathfield at Walford Cross. We consider this site subsequently in this Section of the Topic Paper. 5.52 Although a larger scale employment allocation in southern Monkton Heathfield could not be implemented at present, a small allocation of some 3 ha could be achieved in the short term at the Hatcheries to meet immediate demand. This would also enable the provision of some freehold plot sales, providing opportunities for improved premises for smaller manufacturing businesses requiring new space. A small site of 3 ha in the southern portion of Monkton Heathfield could be readily accessed off the A38 and would not require the large scale transport improvements required for a strategic site allocation. A small site is likely to meet demand for small manufacturing uses, offering capacity for some 7,500 sq m of employment floorspace. 5.53 In addition, as part of the wider mixed use Monkton Heathfield development, the UES will be proposing the development of some 1,000 sq m of B1 office space in the medium term as part of the Monkton Heathfield District Centre. In the long term market demand may warrant an expansion to provide an additional 1,000 sq m of offices. (TNF1) Taunton Trading Estate 5.54 Taunton Trading Estate is a 4.41 ha brownfield site that is currently available. It is accessed off Silk Mills Road which has been improved (together with bridge improvements) which provides reasonable local access but poor strategic access. The original Trading Estate is being redeveloped mainly for housing but with a 7 ha mixed employment use component. Currently one of the original buildings is being marketed for £1 per sq ft on a short term lease and so would represent the reuse of existing employment space. 5.55 Two recently developed buildings have been occupied by Booker (40,000 sq ft in Feb 2009) and West Country Feeds (70,000 sq ft in Jan 2010). The remaining employment site,

Final Report | December 2011 39 Taunton Deane Economic Topic Paper

measuring some 4.4 ha offers flat land and therefore is an easy build opportunity, making it deliverable in the short term subject to local demand. This site is likely to support occupier demand for Industrial/warehousing uses, offering capacity for some 11,000 sq m of employment floorspace which is immediately available in the short term. (TNF2) Former Matthew Clarks 5.56 Former Matthew Clarks is a 0.33 ha brownfield site that has been opened up by construction of the new access road off Silk Mills Road. Subject to satisfying any conditions relating to flooding issues and achieving a link with the new access road development could proceed in the short term and could provide either small B1(c) or office space. (TNF4, 5) Courtlands Farm 5.57 Courtlands Farm is a 0.54 ha greenfield site to the west of Taunton near Staplegrove. It has been available over the short term. This site has poor local access and is not well linked to the strategic road network. Some employment uses may already be operating on site. 5.58 In general, it offers little in terms of new employment uses and therefore should not be specifically allocated for employment uses but should be kept under review. (TSt1) Frobisher Way 5.59 Frobisher Way is a 0.32 ha brownfield site that has been available over the short term. This is a flat easy build site with planning permission and is also Council owned, which makes it deliverable in the short term. However, poor strategic access to the road network suggests it is more likely to meet local demand for industrial/warehouse use providing capacity for some 990 sq m of employment floorspace. Initial Conclusion 5.60 Our appraisal of sites indicates that there is little or no immediate potential for bringing forward a large scale strategic site for manufacturing and distribution uses in the TUA at a realistically implementable cost. This is due to the need for significant transport improvements and the failure to successfully progress motorway junction improvements or a new motorway junction. However, there is a clear need for such a site to be brought forward as soon as possible in order to underpin the job-led growth strategy for TUA. 5.61 The key to bringing forward a large scale employment site is to make the case and secure funding for improved motorway access. Work on the necessary justification will need to be undertaken and completed over the next 3-4 years before the next review of the Core Strategy. There are three possible larger scale employment sites which we consider subsequently: . Walford Cross near the M5 at the northern extremity of Monkton Heathfield; this is the only site which could be partly brought forward in the short term . A mixed use development at Comeytrowe with an employment site which is linked back to Junction 26 . A site at Henlade south west of Junction 25 near the park and ride site.

Final Report | December 2011 40 Taunton Deane Economic Topic Paper

Walford Cross 5.62 Towards the end of the period in which this Topic Paper was prepared, and in response to the emerging conclusions on transport issues, officers of TDBC identified the potential of a site at Walford Cross at the northern extremity of the wider Monkton Heathfield area. This site is located between the A38 and the M5, south of the junction of the A38 and the A361. There is the possibility of bringing forward some 8 ha of land and a minimum of 20,000 sq m of built space behind and adjacent to the existing agricultural machinery distributors and caravan site. This area is becoming something of a distribution location already. There is the longer term potential for expanding the allocation by some 3-4 ha and the UES masterplan provides for this. 5.63 A strategic allocation of 8 ha with some limited potential for longer term expansion would need to be accessed off a reconfigured A38/A361 roundabout junction. Some additional highways improvements might also be required in the longer term and TDBC’s preference would be a north facing junction on the M5 using the A 361 and new slip roads to gain access. However, since an employment allocation here would merely represent a relocation northwards by some 2 km of the currently adopted Local Plan Langaller Manor Farm employment allocation, there should be no short term constraint to a similar allocation at Walford Cross. For the time being, we conclude that a more strategic medium sized employment allocation at Walford Cross could be brought forward in the short to medium term, once improvements had been implemented at the A38/A361 junction. This site would then be available to meet the increased demand anticipated after a recovery from the current economic downturn. 5.64 The rate of uptake of this allocation and the potential of a subsequent expansion of 3-4 ha will be improved by the provision of a new north facing motorway junction and we consider that the feasibility and funding justification for this is developed over the next 3-4 years. Comeytrowe 5.65 An employment site at Comeytrowe would form part of the proposed long term development of a mixed use urban expansion. In order for a strategic employment site to work both in market and transport terms a large scale employment site of 10 ha or so would have to be accessed off a new road linking back to Junction 26. At the present time it is unclear whether such an outcome would be feasible either technically or financially. This would need to be addressed over the next 3-4 years. Henlade 5.66 We have previously reviewed the site at Henlade to the south west of Junction 25 at paragraphs 5.40 and 5.41. There is no immediate prospect of this site coming forward in the short term. There may be a longer term possibility provided that the significant objections to its development as an employment site can be overcome at a cost that still makes development viable. The promoters of this site would need to provide substantive technical and economic evidence demonstrating that development would be feasible before an allocation could be considered.

Final Report | December 2011 41 Taunton Deane Economic Topic Paper

Wellington (WWe1, 2) Ryelands Industrial Estate 5.67 Ryelands Industrial Estate offers two greenfield site totalling 1.5 ha (WWe1 = 1.03ha; WWe2 = 0.46ha) that have been available over the short term. These two sites offer further employment opportunities in Wellington. 5.68 Given the lack of short term new premises in Taunton, there may be some local demand for small light industrial/warehousing opportunities on these site to complement the Westpark development. The sites are able to accommodate some 4,000 sq m of employment floorspace over the short to medium term. (WWe32) Tonedale Mills 5.69 Tonedale Mills is a 1.5 ha brownfield site that is being marketed. Located to the north of Wellington, the site is poorly located in relation to the wider strategic road network and public transport. There is a listed (textile) factory on site, currently being used for low value, small lock-up space. 5.70 It is unlikely to offer potential for significant reuse for employment, and would more likely only come forward for new employment uses as part of a residential-led mixed use scheme. The building and location suggest that craft/lifestyle type businesses may be attracted, but these will not create many local jobs. 5.71 Overall, this site is likely to support occupier demand for offices and some light industrial/workshop uses, offering capacity for some 940 sq m of employment floorspace. This is likely to support growth over the medium term. (WWe4 and WWe5) Chelston House Farm 5.72 Chelston House Farm (also known as Westpark) is an 18.4 ha greenfield site that has been available over the short term. There are two separate employment sites within this development (WWe4 = 14.9 ha; WWe5 = 3.4 ha). These sites form part of a development known as Westpark 26, which is currently being developed by Summerfield Developments. This is a mixed use employment scheme, with the majority allocated and/or permitted for industrial uses. These two employment sites are well located at Junction 26 off the M5, with good visibility from the A38. Some of the industrial/warehousing premises on adjacent land are already built and occupied. Demand for this site should be strong subject to price. 5.73 According to TDBC, part (1.7 ha) of WWe4 has approval for 6,000 sq m of offices and all of WWe5 has approval for some 11,100 sq m of industrial/warehousing plus 10% mezzanine space. The rest is likely to support occupier demand for Industrial/warehousing uses, with an overall capacity for some 77,000 sq m of employment floorspace. This significant quantum of potential short-term supply is likely to support growth by meeting demand over the short to medium term. (WWe7) Lowmoor 5.74 Lowmoor is a greenfield employment allocation formed of five adjacent sites totalling 2 ha. The site is not located close to any strategic road networks and also has poor local access,

Final Report | December 2011 42 Taunton Deane Economic Topic Paper

with little visibility. It has been available over the short term. The five sites are all located within an employment area with bad neighbour uses, and may be subject to contamination. 5.75 Their location suggests that there will be little potential for securing significant new employment uses. Consequently, these sites offer little strategic planning advantages in being allocated for employment uses. (WWw1) Pleamore 5.76 Pleamore is a 1.52 ha greenfield site that has been available over the short term and is already being developed for some 2,480 sq m of industrial/warehousing uses. This is likely to support growth over the short term. Rural Sites (Co1) Manor Farm, Cothelstone 5.77 Manor Farm, Cothelstone is a 0.25 ha greenfield site in a rural area to the north of the A358 in the north of the borough. The site has been available over the long term but is no longer permitted for employment uses. 5.78 It is within an area designated as AONB, and offers little advantage for employment uses. This site should not be allocated. (RMi1) Preston Farm 5.79 Preston Farm is a 0.51 ha greenfield site off the B3181 between Wiveliscombe and Taunton. It has been available over the short term. This site offers a barn conversion opportunity, but in its present form has poor local and strategic access. Demand is unlikely to be strong and may better serve the local (rural) market. This site should be allocated but keep under review. 5.80 This site is likely to support occupier demand for office/industrial/warehousing uses, offering capacity for some 1,600 sq m of employment floorspace. This is likely to support growth over the medium term. (RWi1) Hillsmoor 5.81 Hillsmoor is a 1.03 ha greenfield site that has been available over the short term. It is located on the edge of Wiveliscombe - Taunton's third largest town - and surrounded by other employment, predominately poor neighbour, uses. It has a planning permission for employment uses, offering potential for low value employment uses over the medium term. Demand is unlikely to be very strong. It should be kept allocated to serve the local rural market, but kept under review. 5.82 This site is likely to support occupier demand for industrial/warehousing uses, offering capacity for some 2,151 sq m of employment floorspace. (RWi12) Sandy’s Moor 5.83 Sandy’s Moor is a 4.94 ha greenfield site that is currently available. This site offers longer term employment potential. It is a good site, isolated from residential uses just outside Wiveliscombe. It would provide a useful allocation serving local, rural communities.

Final Report | December 2011 43 Taunton Deane Economic Topic Paper

5.84 This site is likely to meet demand for Industrial/warehousing uses, offering capacity for some 10,800 sq m of employment floorspace. This is likely to support growth over the short, medium and long term.

Quantitative Assessment of Sites 5.85 Table 5.1 on the next page provides details on each site’s potential for providing business floorspace. The table provides a reference for each site from the Stage 1 Employment Land Review 2008, site area, floorspace capacity potential (either identified through planning applications or estimated based on default plot ratio assumptions), whether it is a greenfield or brownfield opportunity, its proximity to the strategic road network and train stations, and its overall market attractiveness ranked from 1, indicating very weak demand potential, to 5, indicating very strong demand potential. 5.86 It should be recognised that these gradings do not in any way seek to assess the relative strategic importance of a site for future business land supply in a wider sub-regional context. That is, sites may be assessed as average against sub-regional benchmarks, but they may be the best opportunities available locally. 5.87 In addition, Table 5.1 identifies broadly when the site is likely to come forward. If it is likely to be available within the next 5 years then it is considered short term, if between 5 and 10 years then it is medium term, and if more than 10 years it is long term.

Final Report | December 2011 44 Taunton Deane Economic Topic Paper

Table 5.1 Quantitative Assessment of Employment Land Potential to 2027 Rank of drive time (min) to nearest… Site Sub-market Site Green/ Market Potential Site name area Potential use Phasing area ref Brownfield motorway primary A train potential flsp (sq m) (ha) junction road road station

Industrial/ Crown Estate TCF3 1.95 Green 00:07 00:08 00:08 00:11 3 Short warehousing 4,875

Monkton Heathfield Industrial/ Short to TMh1 3.00 Green 00:08 00:09 00:07 00:12 4 Hatcheries warehousing medium 7,500

Monkton Heathfield - Green 4 Offices District Centre 2,000

Taunton Trading Industrial/ TNF1 4.41 Brown 00:15 00:16 00:07 00:11 4 Short Estate warehousing 11,025

Former Matthew TNF2 0.33 Brown 00:21 00:23 00:14 00:17 3 Offices Medium Clarks 2,013

TNF4 0.54 Green 00:13 00:14 00:04 00:09 Industrial/ Courtlands Farm 2 Medium warehousing 2,225 Taunton TNF5 0.35 Green 00:12 00:13 00:03 00:08 Urban Area Industrial/ Frobisher Way TSt1 0.32 Brown 00:14 00:15 00:06 00:10 3 Short warehousing 990

Blackbrook TTa1 0.76 Green 00:09 00:10 00:11 00:16 5 Offices Short 3,500

Taunton East Goods TTa5 0.35 Brown 00:06 00:07 00:04 00:01 3 Offices Medium Yard 4,580

Taunton East Goods TTa6 0.55 Brown 00:06 00:08 00:04 00:01 3 Offices Medium Yard 7,200

Firepool TTa7 9.04 Brown 00:06 00:08 00:04 00:02 5 Offices Short to Long 47,000

Tangier TTa9 2.80 Brown 00:09 00:10 00:04 00:04 4 Offices Medium 8,000

Final Report | December 2011 45 Taunton Deane Economic Topic Paper

TTa10 1.10 Brown 00:08 00:09 00:05 00:06 Offices Short (Coal Coal Orchard / 4 Orchard only) Morrisons 1,600 TTa11 2.97 Brown 00:06 00:07 00:03 00:04 Offices to Long

Industrial/ Short to Walford Cross* 8.00 Greeb 5 warehousing medium 20,000

Industrial/ WWe1 1.03 Green 00:11 00:16 00:06 00:17 Ryelands Industrial warehousing Short to 3 Estate Industrial/ medium 4,000 WWe2 0.46 Green 00:09 00:14 00:04 00:15 warehousing

Tonedale Mills WWe3 1.50 Brown 00:14 00:20 00:10 00:21 2 Offices Medium 938

1.70 Offices 6,131

Wellington WWe4 Green 00:06 00:14 00:06 00:16 Chelston House Farm Short to (also known as 5 Industrial/ 13.20 medium Western Road) warehousing 58,635

Industrial/ WWe5 3.44 Green 00:08 00:17 00:08 00:18 12,247 warehousing

Industrial/ Pleamore WWw1 1.52 Green 00:07 00:12 00:02 00:12 3 Short warehousing 2,480 Industrial/ Medium to Preston Farm RMi1 0.51 Green 00:16 00:24 00:16 00:21 2 warehousing long 1,618 Rural Industrial/ Taunton Hillsmoor RWi1 1.03 Green 00:32 00:36 00:27 00:37 2 Short warehousing 2,151 Deane Industrial/ Sandys Moor RWi2 4.94 Green 00:31 00:36 00:27 00:36 2 Short warehousing 10,800 *No drive time information is available for this site because it is neither a planned or allocated site. Source: TDBC; Strutt & Parker; RTP

Final Report | December 2011 46 Taunton Deane Economic Topic Paper

Employment Sites with No Future Employment Potential 5.88 Table 5.2 shows the employment sites with a planning permission or allocation but which are considered to be poorly located and they remain to be taken-up. The reason for the lack of take up is likely to be the current economic climate and the relatively poor quality of these sites. These sites should no longer be considered to offer suitable employment land to meet future requirements.

Table 5.2 Employment Sites Considered Unsuitable for Employment Allocation

Current Status Sub-market Site area Site name Site ref Planning area (ha) Allocation Permission Henlade RHe1 9.62 Y Toneway TCF1 0.25 Y Taunton Urban Priorswood landfill TCF2 1.37 Y Area Crown Estate TCF4 4.22 Y Blackbrook TTa3 0.22 Y Priorswood TTa8 1.58 Y Rural Taunton Manor Farm, RCo1 0.44 Y Deane Cothelstone Lowmoor WWe7 2.03 Y Wellington Chelston House Farm WWe8 2.61 Y

Source: TDBC (U/Emp/EmpSuppdemExec0310 and Employment Land Monitor, 2010); RTP; Strutt & Parker 5.89 To stimulate economic activity and job growth, clearly every encouragement should be given to the development of these sites in the short term. But if these outstanding planning permissions lapse, there should be a review of the likelihood of these sites coming forward within a reasonable period of time before they are granted planning permission or allocated for employment land in the next review of the Core Strategy. We would emphasise the importance of promoting good quality employment sites if investment is to be attracted and job growth achieved reflecting the objectives of the EDS. Recent Completions 5.90 TDBC’s monitoring report records that, some 10.8 ha of industrial/warehousing space had been completed over the period April 2006 to March 2010, and a further 3.3 ha was under construction. This is equivalent to some 35,000 sq m of floorspace using an assumed plot ratio of 25%. However, this does not include the parts of the Taunton Trading Estate and former Matthew Clarks that were demolished. According to TDBC, the floorspace demolished in TTE was 57,190 sq m (on c.25 ha), although not all this space was fully utilised in the period after 2006. Assuming it was 50% utilised, then some 28,500 sq m (c.12.5) should be taken as lost space that would need replacing. The Matthew Clark space occupied some 4 ha (a floorspace figure is not available) but it had been vacant for around 10 years and therefore this should not be counted as lost space, because no existing jobs would need accommodating elsewhere in the borough. As summarised in Table 5.3, based on these figures, there was an overall net gain of some 6,725 sq m (1.6 ha) of industrial/warehousing land.

Final Report | December 2011 47 Taunton Deane Economic Topic Paper

5.91 For offices, the monitoring data shows some 16,500 sq m of completed and under construction office space between 2006 and 2010.

Table 5.3 Completed and Under Construction Floorspace, Taunton Deane April 2006 to March 2010

Industrial/Warehousing Offices Sq M* HA Sq M Net completions, 2006-10 -1,575 -1.7 14,642 Under construction 8,300 3.3 1,856 Total 6,725 1.6 16,498

*Estimated using a 25% plot ratio. Source: TDBC (U/Emp/EmpSuppdemExec0310 and Employment Land Monitor, 2010) 5.92 These completions include three employment sites identified in the previous review (Stage 1 Sites Assessments), which are: . Blackbrook (TTa2) . Blackbrook (TTa4) . Former SCAT (TTa12) 5.93 These completions plus sites under construction, totalling 18.2 ha (52,000 sq m), will already be contributing to the 94,300 sq m of B-space requirements over the Plan period that was identified in Section 4. Short Term Availability 5.94 Based on the potential for sites coming forward within the identified timescale, Table 5.4 summarises the quantum of short term land supply. This identifies only about 10 hectares of employment land to be immediately available in Taunton Urban Area in the short term before development at southern Monkton Heathfield (Hatcheries) and Walford Cross can be expected to contribute to supply. Whilst there is significant potential for employment space in the long term, there is a notable shortage of short term supply in Taunton Urban Area. Furthermore, given that some 80% of future employment growth is projected to be accommodated in the TUA, land supply is skewed towards the large allocations to the south of Wellington.

Final Report | December 2011 48 Taunton Deane Economic Topic Paper

Table 5.4 Short Term Employment Land Supply at 2010

Hectares Sq m Use Taunton Urban Area TTa1 Blackbrook 0.76 3,500 B1a TTa7 Firepool 2.00 10,500 B1a TTa10 Coal Orchard 0.60 1,300 B1a TTa9 Tangier 0.30 8,000 B1a TCf3 Crown Estate 1.95 4,875 B2/B8 TNf1 Taunton Trading Estate 4.40 11,000 B2/B8 TNf2 Former Matthew Clark 0.33 1,000 B1a/c TSt1 Frobisher Way 0.32 1,000 B2/B8 Sub Total 10.66 41,175 Monkton Heathfield - Hatcheries 3.00 7,500 B1c/B2 Monkton Heathfield - District Centre - 1,000 B1a Walford Cross 8.00 20,000 B2/B8 Sub Total 11.00 28,500 Wellington WWe1 Ryelands IE 1.00 4,000 B1c/B8 WWe4 Western Road (Westpark 26) 1.70 6,131 B1 WWe5 Western Road (Westpark 26) 3.44 12,247 B1c/B2/B8 WWw1 Pleamore 1.50 2,480 B2/B8 Sub Total 7.64 24,858 Rural Area RMi1 Preston Farm 0.50 1,660 B1a/B2/B8 RWi2 Sandys Moor 4.90 10,800 B1c/B2/B8 Sub Total 5.40 12,460 Borough Total 34.70 106,993

Source: RTP

Employment Land Strategy 5.95 Converting the employment land supply estimates and their availability provides the potential timeline for delivery of floorspace over the short to long term in Table 5.5. Short term reflects sites that would be deliverable within five years, medium term deliverable within ten years, and long term deliverable in more than 10 years. The table also shows the total completed space and sites under construction, which will be contributing to meeting requirements over the plan period.

Final Report | December 2011 49 Taunton Deane Economic Topic Paper

Table 5.5 Anticipated Planned Supply of the Plan Period, 2006 to 2027

Net Medium Total Completions* Short term Long term term since 2006 (Sq m) (Sq m) (Sq m) Ha Sq m (Sq m) Industrial/ warehousing 45.9 138,546 6,725** 69,511 64,785 4,250 Offices 25.2 99,460 16,498 31,413 28,229 23,319 All B-space 71.2 238,006 16,498 100,924 93,014 27,569

*Includes sites under construction **Includes the loss of 28,500 sq m of floorspace at Taunton Trading Estate Source: RTP; TDBC 5.96 Taking account of site completions since the start of the plan period (i.e. April 2006 to April 2010), sites under construction for employment uses and the employment supply identified to be deliverable and suitable for future employment uses based on the sites assessments, the total potential employment space supply in Taunton Deane Borough totals some 46 ha (138,500 sq m) of industrial/warehousing space and 99,500 sq m of office space. 5.97 This is a sufficient quantum to meet the projected requirements for employment growth and ‘churn’ in the market amounting to a total of 20.3 ha (51,000 sq m) of industrial/warehousing space and 46,100 sq m of office space over the plan period. Moreover this supply provides a variety of site sizes and locations capable of meeting the anticipated range of demand. But in the immediate short term there is a shortage of immediately deliverable sites in the TUA to meet short term requirements. 5.98 Consequently the employment land strategy needs to recognise short term priorities and what is realistically achievable, as well as the longer term aspirations for the Borough. In the short term it is important to bring forward the small Hatcheries employment site at southern Monkton Heathfield together with the more strategic Walford Cross site as soon as possible. In addition, some of Firepool, Tangier and Coal Orchard could be progressed in terms of site preparation and marketing but demand conditions are unlikely to support a high level of office take-up in the short term. However, the strategy should be flexible and able to respond to changes in market conditions quickly. 5.99 In the longer term, if the market has responded strongly to the Walford Cross allocation, there would be scope to expand the area allocated by some 3 - 4 ha but only if medium and long term demand warrant further expansion of this more strategic site. We would anticipate market conditions for office space to improve in the medium and long term leading to development of many of the TUA sites provided that the initiatives which we highlight in Section 4 are implemented. 5.100 Once the Core Strategy is adopted the Council should then begin the background work to substantiate both the justification and technical solutions to overcoming the infrastructure constraints which currently prevent a longer term strategic employment site release at either Comeytrowe or Henlade. This work needs to be completed in time to inform the next review of the Core Strategy in 2016 or thereabouts.

Final Report | December 2011 50 Taunton Deane Economic Topic Paper

5.101 The identified employment land supply uses are likely to have less relevance for non B- space employment requirements which should be met on existing use sites – i.e. town centre retail and education through planned supply and site extensions. In fact the very great majority of net additional jobs will be located in Taunton town on sites for retail and leisure development, offices, health care and educational institutions. But given the large extent of these requirements, which are estimated to total some 231,000 sq m over the Plan period and the predominant town centre location for these activities, it may also be possible to accommodate a limited proportion of non B-space employment generating uses (excluding retail) on employment sites providing this is consistent with other sustainability objectives and does not undermine the functioning of other employment activities on site.

Final Report | December 2011 51 Taunton Deane Economic Topic Paper

6 CONCLUSIONS Future Growth 6.1 We project the potential for some 11,000 net additional jobs within Taunton Deane Borough between 2006 and 2027, based on average GVA growth of 2.8% p.a. This is higher than the average GVA growth projection for the South West but reflects Taunton’s key role as Somerset’s county town and the key market town and administrative centre serving a relatively prosperous sub-region, and importantly, reflects TDBC’s aspiration of expansion based on economic growth. 6.2 Reflecting the growth agenda for Taunton Urban Area, some 80% of this planned additional growth should be focused on the TUA where there is the most potential for stimulating the local economy through supply-side initiatives. This would give an additional 8,800 jobs in TUA. 6.3 This employment projection is intended to guide the long term planning of the Borough as a whole and the Taunton Urban Extension Study also. We recognise that there is considerable uncertainty in the short term, particularly as a consequence of the implications of the Coalition Government’s spending cuts. However, all long term planning projections need to reflect the long term policy intention and should not be continually adjusted in response to short term changes. Our long term projection provides a guiding framework, albeit there are likely to be two or three economic cycles over the projection period. We recommend that the Council adopts a plan monitor manage (PMM) approach to review future employment permissions and allocations, in line with that set out at the end of this Section. 6.4 TDBC’s Economic Development Strategy targets the Green Knowledge Economy (GKE) as a basis for sustainable growth of the Borough and a sound basis for increased, higher value economic activity and employment. There are several strong existing sectors which can contribute to further growth of the low carbon economy, and the knowledge economy in general, and there are significant economic, financial and regulatory factors which provide an opportunity for growth. 6.5 This report identifies specific opportunities, particularly in relation to implementation of low carbon technologies and the service sectors which support such growth. A key factor will be the approach which TDBC and the County Council take to establishing frameworks and requirements for low carbon development and to supporting special initiatives to attract and focus employment growth in the Borough. The proposed Taunton urban extensions provide significant opportunities to design in the new approaches, creating new demand for design services, investment and implementation of new technologies. 6.6 The growth of the Green Knowledge Economy sectors, and Low Carbon Goods and Services (LCGES) in particular, can make a useful contribution to overall employment growth in the Borough, but does not imply significantly different requirements for sites and premises than those identified through the more traditional types of employment land provision. In the present economic climate LCEGS sectors are forecast to become a major driver for employment growth across B and non-B space businesses. If fully supported by

Final Report | December 2011 52 Taunton Deane Economic Topic Paper

the Borough Council along the government initiatives promoting low carbon economy green jobs may account for up to 43% of growth. It is important therefore, to support key initiatives (identified earlier) and to ensure that a range of good quality, attractive, high profile premises are available to create the right environment for GKE businesses, in both office and small- to medium-scale “industrial” premises.

Employment Land Supply 6.7 One of the key supply side measures which will assist the creation of new jobs is the provision of good quality sites for employment generating development. At present there are some potentially good quality sites in and adjacent to Taunton town centre but additional infrastructure improvements are needed to stimulate a somewhat weak office market. Historically Blackbrook Business Park has been the best located and most successful location for office development related to its access to Junction 25 but only one site is available for additional development. Thus, now that development at Blackbrook is largely complete, it is important to progress the town centre sites reflecting national planning policy advice in PPS4. 6.8 In relation to industrial and warehousing development, the Borough has a generally poor quality of site supply with the exception of Westpark 26 at Wellington. This poor quality and inadequate quantity of supply historically may have subdued potential industrial and warehouse development in TUA. It is critically important to bring forward additional sites as soon as possible. A small site of some 3 ha at southern Monkton Heathfield (the Hatcheries), together with a more strategic site at Walford Cross, offer the best opportunities for delivery in the short term. This should be a high priority. 6.9 In terms of demand for employment land, we estimate a theoretical requirement for some 20.3 ha (51,000 sq m) of industrial/warehousing space and 46,100 sq m of office space over the plan period. In addition, a further 231,000 of floorspace will be required for non-B class uses. Within the supply, strategic allocations for offices should be in Taunton and that 80% of all other employment, including industrial/warehousing, should be in the TUA. Specifically, some of the B-space and non B-space employment uses should be accommodated within mixed use developments, particularly in the town centre sites and the urban extensions. Strategic developments should be planned to encourage and support growth in ‘green jobs’ which is strongly promoted in the Taunton Deane Economic Development Strategy. The urban extensions should be planned to provide for a mix of employment uses including small scale, freehold plots and starter units where this is feasible. 6.10 To deliver against the above growth objectives, the Borough has some 71 ha of potential employment land supply (including completions since 2006). However, only about 10 ha (excluding southern Monkton Heathfield and Walford Cross) is available in the TUA, and most of the total employment land supply in the Borough is neither available in the short term nor well located. Supply is overly skewed towards Wellington. The addition of southern Monkton Heathfield (3 ha in the short term) and Walford Cross (8 ha) would bring up the TUA supply to some 21 ha in the short term, with the potential for some longer term expansion at Walford Cross through the Core Strategy allocation, if demand conditions

Final Report | December 2011 53 Taunton Deane Economic Topic Paper

warrant a further land release. We consider that the qualitative arguments for this strategy justify the prioritisation of the better located sites in TUA which have been identified – namely, southern Monkton Heathfield, Walford Cross, Firepool, Tangier and Coal Orchard serving TUA; and Westpark 26 is available in both the short and medium term to serve Wellington. In the rural area, Sandy’s Moor represents a short to medium term (and possibly long term) major employment site. 6.11 A number of sites with unimplemented employment land use permissions have not been identified for delivering future growth. Our recommendation is to allow the permissions on these sites to run and should they come forward for employment use, then any impact for allocated employment sites should be adjusted through the recommended PMM approach discussed below. Similarly, should these sites not come forward before their permission expires, any future applications or site allocations should be determined through the PMM approach. 6.12 There is a significant supply of sites with planning permission for office use within Taunton (e.g. Firepool and Tangier). These sites meet government and local planning objectives for sustainable communities by being centrally located in the urban area and should have potential to offer a full range of opportunities – i.e. flexible space for different suite size, tenures, etc, over the short to long term. These permissions or allocations should not be undermined. Therefore, any applications for office uses on sites that are neither allocated nor considered strategic (Government guidance suggests this should include sites offering less than 1,000 sq m of floorspace or 0.25 ha), should be considered on a sequential site by site basis to ensure that they do not undermine expansion of office space in Taunton. 6.13 Our recommended employment land strategy thus encapsulates both a short term strategy to bring forward immediately a supply of better quality employment sites within the TUA, whilst at the same time recognising that a longer term strategy should seek to unlock the infrastructure constraints currently preventing a further major employment land release.

Monitoring and Review 6.14 Planning for future employment land should be subject to regular monitoring of development and economic circumstances using the plan, monitor and manage (PMM) approach in order to match supply to demand more closely in the future. So if the 2.8% GVA growth target projections prove to be over-optimistic and/or some of the sites fail to be developed in the next 5-10 years because market demand for new space remains weak and the viability of new offices (in a centre like Taunton) remains challenging, then adjustments should be made. 6.15 Therefore, in the light of evidence available at the time of the next review and progress achieved in relation to the overall employment target and uptake of sites, the review which we recommend is undertaken by 2016 will potentially need to adjust long term employment projections and future site allocations. In the meantime the Council should continue to monitor: . Key economic data, especially employment change by sector

Final Report | December 2011 54 Taunton Deane Economic Topic Paper

. Development completions (land demand) and commitments (land supply), focusing on net floorspace change (both negative and positive) . Insofar as possible, business relocations and expansions into and out of the Borough together with enquiries for business space.

6.16 In addition, after the adoption of the Core Strategy the Council should work with those promoting the case for strategic land releases either at Comeytrowe or Henlade to progress studies over the next 3-4 years to investigate whether it is both technically and economically feasible to ensure the strategic highways accessibility that will ensure that long term large scale employment allocations could be taken up at one or other of these locations. This work would then inform a review of the Core Strategy in 2016.

Final Report | December 2011 55 Taunton Deane Borough Council Final Report | December 2010

APPENDIX 1

Taunton Deane’s Economy Overview

Final Report | December 2010 APPENDIX 1: TAUNTON DEANE’S ECONOMY OVERVIEW

This appendix profiles the local Taunton Deane economy under three main headings:

. The Borough’s resident population and resident workforce; . The Borough’s workplace economy – the businesses and jobs located in the borough; . The Borough’s labour market – where the above meet as workplace demand comes into balance with resident supply. The analysis throughout is shaped by two broad questions. Firstly, an assessment of economic well-being of the Borough’s residents and workers to identify how well off they are and may be expected to be in future and why. This diagnostic will help inform the Council’s employment land approach, because a key objective is to further this well-being, which may require correcting any identified disadvantages and influence factors that make the local economy more prosperous and more productive. Secondly, the local economy is examined for what it tells us about the demand for employment space. The analysis serves as background and a reality check on the quantitative demand forecasts in the main report. More important, it begins to describe demand qualitatively, profiling what Taunton Deane offers businesses, what kinds of businesses operate in the borough and hence what kinds of space they need. This qualitative analysis will be continued in the property market chapter, which will consider in particular what areas Taunton Deane competes with for business occupiers and how it measures up against these competitors. Throughout this appendix, the local economy is benchmarked against norms or expectations based on the performance of comparable or competing areas like neighbouring districts and similar urban districts within the region. The benchmarks therefore include:

. Mendip . Mid Devon . Sedgemoor . South Somerset . BANES . Bournemouth . Exeter . Swindon . The South West . England or Great Britain

The Residents

Population Using mid-year population estimates, the following table has been devised to obtain total and working age population data for Taunton Deane and comparator areas.

1 Table 1 Population Estimates, 2008

Working Age Population Total Population # % # Mendip 64,700 59% 110,100 Mid Devon 44,700 58% 76,700 Sedgemoor 65,500 58% 112,800 South Somerset 90,600 57% 158,700 BANES 113,900 63% 180,300 Bournemouth 101,800 62% 163,900 Exeter 83,700 68% 123,500 Swindon 122,500 64% 192,900 Taunton Deane 63,400 58% 108,700 South West 3,115,200 60% 5,209,200 36,976,500 62% 59,608,200 Great Britain

Source: Mid-year Population Estimates

Absolute levels of total population in Taunton Deane are similar to those in Mendip and Mid Devon amongst the neighbouring benchmarks but significantly lower than the populations of South Somerset, BANES, Bournemouth and Swindon. In terms of the working age population, Taunton (58%) resembles the benchmarks within the immediate geography which have 57-59% working age populations. This differs from the more distant comparator areas and which have higher working age population levels (62-68%). The region and GB as a whole also exhibit higher proportions of working age population at about 60% and 62%, respectively. Consequently, Taunton Deane residents have a higher ratio of dependent population (i.e. 0 to 16, and 65+)

Population projections The importance of the population age structure comes to light when analysing the ONS Sub-National Population Projections based on 2008 data. The forecast for Taunton Deane is that the share of the working age population will decrease to 52% by 2026 and will further decline to 50% by 2033. This is because of projected ageing population structure, with more deaths than births starting from 2025. Resident qualifications In terms of qualifications and skills Taunton Deane exhibits a relatively strong position. Taunton Deane has a higher proportion of residents with NVQ4+ relative to other comparator regions; only two districts, Exeter and BANES show of a higher proportion. Furthermore, Taunton Deane also has a relatively smaller proportion of those with low or no qualifications compared with other areas. Mid Devon contains a slightly smaller proportion (19%) while BANES is at par with Taunton.

2 Figure 1 Qualifications Achieved, 2008

26% Great Britain 29% 25% South West 28% 20% Taunton Deane 31% 30% Swindon 23% 25% Exeter 34% 23% Bournemouth 27% 20% BANES 34% 26% South Somerset 20% 30% Sedgemoor 25% 19% Mid Devon 26% 24% Mendip 26%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%

No Qualification or NVQ 1 only NVQ 4+

Source: Annual Population Survey

Social deprivation Figure 2 maps the 2007 Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD) overall rank for lower level super output areas (LLSOAs) across Taunton Deane Borough and further afield. The map identifies that a larger proportion of Taunton Deane’s residents live in relatively un- deprived areas. Roughly 64% of residents live in LLSOAs which rank amongst England’s 50% least deprived – indeed 27% of residents are in the top 20% least deprived ranking LLSOAs. Taunton has two notable ward areas where an element of deprivation exists, these are Taunton Halcon and Taunton Lyngford. Taunton Halcon has one LLSOA which places in the bottom 20% most deprived and one LLSOA which places in the bottom 10% most deprived LLSOAs in England. Taunton Lyngford has four LLSOAs, with one falling within the 20% most deprived nationally. Assessment of the IMD domains indicates particular disadvantage with income and skills and education in these locations. These areas of identified deprivation affect roughly 4,400 residents, roughly 7% of the Taunton Urban Area’s population.

3 Figure 2 Index of Multiple Deprivation, 2007 – Overall Rank of Deprivation

The Workplace Economy

Employment The latest employment data available in the Annual Business Inquiry show approximately 55,000 jobs located in Taunton Deane. This figure is generally higher than areas within the immediate geography (except South Somerset), and lower than the comparators beyond. Table 2 Total Jobs by District, 2008

District Total Jobs Mendip 40,599 Mid Devon 24,292 Sedgemoor 40,403 South Somerset 68,268 BANES 78,439 Bournemouth 76,053 Exeter 84,777 Swindon 110,566 Taunton Deane 54,987 Source: Annual Business Inquiry

4 Employment change Employment change between 1998 and 2008 is shown in the tables below, holding 1998 as the index year (1998=100). In the top figure, Taunton has been graphed amongst neighbouring areas along with the region and Great Britain; the second graph looks at Taunton relative to districts beyond the immediate geographic scope. Figure 3 Employment Change, Immediate Geographic Benchmarks, 1998-2008 (1998 is 100)

130 125 120 115 110 105 100 95 90 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Mendip Mid Devon Sedgemoor South Somerset Taunton Deane South West Great Britain

Source: Annual Business Inquiry

Figure 4 Employment Change, Distant Geographic Benchmarks, 1998-2008 (1998 is 100)

150

140

130

120

110

100

90 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

BANES Bournemouth Exeter Swindon Taunton Deane South West Great Britain

5 Source: Annual Business Inquiry

The following key points emerge from the analysis of these graphs:

. Employment has grown by approximately 20% in Taunton Deane over the period 1998 to 2008 . This has been higher than the average growth experienced in the South West (15% growth) and nationally (10% growth) over the same period. . Employment change in Taunton has been broadly in line with the change experienced by its geographic neighbours (growth ranging between 15-24%). . However, there is more volatility experienced by the distant geographic benchmarks. For instance, BANES and Bournemouth have experienced growth of 10% and 13%, respectively over this period, while Exeter experienced a significant positive change of 35%. On the other hand, Swindon has experienced negative change, whereby, employment has fallen by 3% in 2008 relative to 1998 figures. It appears therefore that Taunton Deane has experienced a good growth in employment levels over this 10-year period, due to its high exposure to public administration, education, and health care sectors which have seen a period of strong growth nationally.

Economic Structure The most dominant employment sector in Taunton Deane is public administration, which accounts for 40% of employment. This proportion is the highest of all the benchmarks. This is followed by distribution, hotels and restaurants (26%), which is broadly in line with the adjacent districts. Neither of these sectors are high value, even though public administration will normally include a relatively high proportion of qualified workers. The third largest employment sector is banking, finance and insurance (15%). Similar employment levels in this sector are exhibited by the neighbouring districts. However, BANES, Bournemouth, Exeter and Swindon all demonstrate a higher level of employment in the same sector (20-27%); so does the South West region (19%) and Great Britain (22%).

6 Figure 5 Employment by Sector, 2008

100% Other services 90% 20% 23% 24% 25% Public admin,education 80% 27% 28% 29% 27% 35% & health 37% 39% 70% Banking, finance and 12% insurance, etc 15% 16% 25% 60% 15% 19% 22% Transport and 27% communications 50% 20% 20% 15% Distribution, hotels and 40% 24% 25% restaurants 29% 29% Construction 25% 30% 25% 23% 24% 26% 20% 29% 21% Manufacturing 16% 21% 10% 11% 14% 13% Energy and water 11% 10% 7% 4% 6% 0% 3% Agriculture and fishing GB SW Exeter BANES Mendip Taunton Swindon MidDevon Sedgemoor Bournemouth South Somerset South

Source: Annual Business Inquiry

Sector Representation and Growth Figure 6 examines employment sector representation in Taunton Deane using Location Quotients (LQs)1 and their potential for growth. This gives indications on the future prosperity of the local economy by providing a constructive way to demonstrate which sectors are growing or declining relative to the national performance and how well- represented Taunton is in those particular sectors. The circle sizes in the chart below reflect the sector size (in terms of employment). The vertical axis shows annual employment growth between 1998 and 2008 in sectors across Great Britain. The higher up the relevant point, the faster the growth has been over the 10-year period; the opposite is true for sectors below the horizontal line. Sectors to the right of the vertical axis are over-represented while those to the left of the axis are under- represented. These sectors can be subdivided into four groups:

. The north east quadrant is highly desirable; industries in this quadrant have high LQ’s in Taunton Deane and experienced national (GB) jobs growth. The further to the right

1 Location Quotient (LQ) is a measure of concentration, in this case measuring a sector’s share of total employment in Taunton Deane borough divided by that sector’s share of total employment in Great Britain. Sectors with an LQ greater than 1 are over-represented in the area against the national norm and those with an LQ below 1 are under-represented. An LQ of 1 indicates that a sector accounts for the same share of total employment in the study area as in the national economy.

7 the point is located the higher the representation. In Taunton, there is high representation in the Public Administration, Education, Health, Social Work, Retail, and Architectural and Engineering Consulting sectors. . In the north-west quadrant are sectors which have been growing but are under- represented in Taunton. They include Real Estate, Other Business Activities, and Computer and Related Activities, Transport (land and supporting activities), Business and Management Consulting, Financial Intermediation, Insurance and Related Services, Vocational, Higher, and Other Education, Restaurants, Recreation, Culture, and Sport, and Other Services. . The south east quadrant is undesirable, since these are industries where Taunton Deane has a relatively high concentration of jobs but nationally they have been losing jobs. This includes Manufacturing of furniture and manufacturing not classified elsewhere, agriculture and to a lesser extent, sale and repair of motor vehicles. . The south west quadrant contains sectors that are declining, but which are under- represented. These sectors comprise all manufacturing sectors, including Manufacturing of food and beverages, Manufacturing of Electronic, Precision, Radio and TV, and Medical Equipment, Post and Telecommunications, and to a lesser extent Hotels and Wholesale trade.

The service sector A closer view of the Figure 7 can be provided for specific economic clusters of several important sectors like service economy and tourism economy. Figure 7 shows that the borough has been able to secure some of the nationally growing sectors, which makes its economy quite strong, however a number of other supporting service sectors are weaker and therefore may require some attention from policy makers. The Post and Telecommunications sector when drilled down to 4-digit SIC level reveals that Courier services and Telecommunications sectors have been growing nationally and therefore represent an opportunity that has not been developed in Taunton Deane. Vocational, higher, and other (including adult) education represents another opportunity for growth, perhaps, drawing on larger and stronger secondary education sector.

Tourism Taunton Deane attracted 316,000 trips by staying visitors in 2007. These visitors stayed for approximately 1,149,000 nights, spending an estimated £45,805,000 in the Borough. In addition, the Borough attracted an estimated 1,683,000 day visits, contributing a further £74,024,000 to the local economy . South West Tourism estimate that total spend by staying and day visitors supports more than 3,100 jobs in Taunton Deane, representing approximately six per cent of total employment. This compares to 8 per cent of all employment across Somerset.

8 Figure 6 Sector representation in Taunton Deane in 2008 by national (GB) annual growth since 1998

Employment growth & 12.0% Employment growth & over- under-represented represented

10.0%

Business & mgt consultancy 8.0% Medical, dental practices &other

Real estate 6.0% Social work without accomm Recruitment Primary Computer & related services education Architectural & engineering Restaurants 4.0% consultancy Recreation, Other business activities nes culture & sport General secondary education Transport and supporting activities 2.0% Legal Vocational, higher, & other activities Hospital activities education Construction Catering other 0.0%Bars Comparison Financial intermediation, Hotels 0.0insurance etc 0.5 1.0 retail sale 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 Post & telecomm Wholesale trade Convenience Public administration -2.0% retail sale Mf of food and beverages Sale of motor vehicles

Mf - other -4.0% Mf of furniture and nes

Mf of office, electrical, media & precision equipm -6.0%

Employment decline & Employment decline & over- under-represented -8.0% represented

Source: Annual Business Inquiry, RTP

9 Figure 7 Service economy sector representation in Taunton Deane in 2008 by national (GB) annual growth since 1998

Employment growth & under- 10.0% Employment growth & over- represented represented

Business & mgt consultancy

8.0%

Medical, dental practices &other Real estate 6.0%

Social work without accomm Primary Computer & related education 4.0% Recruitment services Architectural & engineering consultancy

Other business activities nes General secondary education

Other services Legal activities 2.0% Vocational, higher, Accounting & auditing Hospital activities & other education consultancy Social work with accomm

Financial intermediation, 0.0% 0.0 insurance etc 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 Public administration Post Wholesale trade & telecomm Employment decline & under- Employment decline & represented over-represented -2.0%

10 Figure 8 Tourism sectors representation in Taunton Deane in 2008 by national (GB) annual growth in these sectors since 2008

Employment growth & under- 5.0% Employment growth & over- represented represented

4.0%

Restaurants

3.0% Recreation, culture & sport

Other services 2.0% Transport and supporting activities Comparison retail sale

1.0% Catering other Convenience retail sale Bars

0.0% Recycling, utilities, &waste 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8

Hotels -1.0% Sale of motor vehicles

Employment decline & under- Employment decline & over- represented represented -2.0%

11 Within Taunton Deane there are a number of major visitor attractions. These include the County Museum in Taunton town centre, which is currently going through a major refurbishment as part of Taunton Vision. Visitor numbers to each of the main attractions in the Study Area are listed in Table 3. Other attractions include Somerset County Cricket Ground, St.Mary Magdalene’s Church and ‘Makers’. The West Somerset Railway, the most visited attraction in Taunton Deane with 250,000 visits in 2007, starts in Bishop’s Lydeard, just outside the Study Area. Table 3 Study Area Visitor Attractions Attraction Visitor Numbers County Museum, Taunton 34,999 Cricket Museum, Taunton 2,357 Hestercombe Gardens, Cheddon Fitzpaine 64,685 Willows and Wetlands, Stoke St.Gregory N/A Sheppys Farm and Cider Centre, Taunton N/A Source: South West Tourism (2007) Visits to Attractions Tourism related sectors (Figure 9) attract visitor expenditure to hotels, restaurants, bars, other catering, transport sector, recreation, culture, and sport, and retail sector, having some implications on recycling, waste, and utilities. Whilst the retail sector is well developed in the Borough, the underlying entertainment sector including tourist accommodation needs further boost. All other things being equal policy should encourage those sectors which are growing nationally. This would include those sectors above the horizontal axis as they have the potential to continue growing and generate additional jobs in the economy. However, some of the sectors are under-represented heavily and their national decline is relatively small like, for example, Hotels. This sector was growing locally and given its location quotient of 0.7 it may still be useful for Taunton Deane to support its growth. Knowledge-based employment Employment in knowledge-based sectors (KBS) is a key measure of economic competitiveness, which is a determinant of current and future prosperity. The thinking behind this view is summarised in a quote from the Government White Paper Our Competitive Future: Building the Knowledge Economy: “In a knowledge-driven economy….the generation and exploitation of knowledge has come to play the predominant part in the creation of wealth. Companies in countries with higher labour costs, such as the UK, therefore have to innovate and adapt continuously to retain their competitive edge.” Knowledge-based sectors also tend to have high and fast growing productivity relative to other sectors. Furthermore, they also contribute to higher productivity in the industries they serve by spreading technical progress and efficient business methods. However, these sectors are not necessarily an indicator of employment growth: rising productivity may translate into fewer jobs. Employment in knowledge based sectors is shown below.

12 Figure 9 Employment in Knowledge-based Sectors, 2008 30% 24% 25% 23% 21% 20% 18% 18% 16% 16% 15% 12% 10% 10% 9% 8%

5%

0% Exeter Deane BANES Mendip South South Taunton Taunton Swindon Somerset MidDevon South West South Sedgemoor Great Britain Bournemouth

Source: Annual Business Inquiry

In Taunton Deane, approximately 12% of employment takes place in knowledge-based sectors. This proportion is aligned to its neighbouring districts (except South Somerset). However, relative to other areas, this proportion is considerably lower. For instance, in Bournemouth and Swindon, knowledge based employment is around 23-24% of total jobs. In BANES and Exeter, it is 16% and 18%, respectively. The regional and national averages are also higher than Taunton – by 4 percentage points regionally and 6 percentage point nationally. Unlike other sectors, and unlike the regional and national norm, Taunton Deane borough experienced no growth in KBEs between 2005 and 2008. In the TUA, KBEs fell by approximately 2%. B-space employment We identify B space jobs using employee data2 by specific sectors from the Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) 2003. Industrial jobs comprise manufacturing industries and parts of the construction industry, motor repairs/ maintenance and sewage and refuse disposal. Warehousing is occupied by a variety of transport and distribution activities which are widely spread across the Standard Industrial Classification. For offices we use the CLG (formerly ODPM) definition but include public administration and some temporary workers (within the labour recruitment sector).3

2 Self-employment is not included 3 The correspondence between sectors and types of space is not perfect and hence our definitions of office and industrial/warehousing jobs are approximations. However, they are the best approximations, developed through a series of employment space studies.

13 Table 4 B-space Employment, 2008 Office Industrial Warehousing Total B-space Non B-Space Mendip 14% 14% 7% 36% 64% Mid Devon 12% 21% 11% 45% 55% Sedgemoor 13% 18% 11% 43% 57% South Somerset 11% 25% 8% 45% 55% BANES 21% 8% 4% 33% 67% Bournemouth 27% 5% 4% 37% 63% Exeter 26% 7% 6% 40% 60% Swindon 22% 17% 11% 50% 50% Taunton Deane 18% 9% 5% 33% 67% South West 18% 14% 7% 40% 60% Great Britain 21% 13% 7% 43% 57% Source: Annual Business Inquiry, RTP. B-space employment in Taunton accounts for approximately 33% of overall employment in the Borough. This is the lowest proportion relative to all benchmarks except Bath and North East Somerset. In the South West, this figure stands at 38% while the national average of B space jobs is around 41%. In the neighbouring areas, the B space employment level is generally quite high, mostly drawing from employment in industrial space. On the other hand, amongst the wider geographic comparators, B space employment is driven primarily by offices. The proportion of total B space jobs in these areas is marginally higher than Taunton Deane and much greater at in Swindon, where B-space employment stands at almost 50%. Taunton Deane borough therefore is different from its immediate neighbours and exhibits a pattern similar to major employment centres like Exeter, Bournemouth, and Bath.

Non B-space employment We identify Non B-space jobs in the same way as B space employment using employee data4 by specific sectors from the Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) 2003. The sectors are divided into use classes based on use class definitions and their best fit to them5. Non-B employment accounts for 67% (36,753 employees) of total employee numbers in Taunton Deane. A1 ‘Shops’ use class supports 15.3% of Taunton Deane’s employment, which is third highest proportion among all areas shown in Table 4 after Bournemouth and Mendip and higher than regional and national averages. Whilst this reveals the Borough as a shopping destination its tourism offer is weaker, which can be seen from the proportions of A3, A4, A5, and C1 Hotels employment. Employment in C2 Residential Institutions is highest in Taunton Deane compared to all reference areas boosted by its strong health care and social care with accommodation

4 Self-employment is not included 5 This is approximate as some of the sectors have two use classes corresponding to their activities (e.g. the education sector can appear in C2 and D1).

14 sectors. D1 Non-Residential Institutions6 employment is above the national average but below regional, perhaps due to limited employment in higher education, which is strong in such areas as Bath and Bournemouth. Mendip has the highest proportion of employment in this use class due to a very large primary and secondary education sector, larger than in Taunton Deane. D2 Assembly and Leisure employment stands at 2.1% - very high compared to other areas –due to many sports facilities operating in the Borough. Table 5 Non B-space employment by use class, 2008 A3 Restaurants and cafés, A4 C2 D1 Non- D2 A1 Drinking C1 Residential residential Assembly Sui Shops establ., A5 Hotels institutions institutions and leisure Generis Mendip 16.2% 5.7% 1.7% 5.3% 21.1% 2.1% 11.1% Mid Devon 11.2% 4.6% 1.2% 5.3% 15.3% 1.8% 15.0% Sedgemoor 12.7% 5.8% 1.1% 5.2% 17.1% 1.1% 13.0% South 11.5% Somerset 13.1% 3.8% 0.6% 8.0% 13.6% 1.5% BANES 12.9% 5.6% 2.0% 10.0% 19.1% 1.7% 14.5% Bournemouth 16.7% 5.7% 4.2% 4.4% 19.3% 1.3% 8.6% Exeter 11.3% 3.5% 0.6% 10.3% 14.2% 1.3% 17.1% Swindon 12.4% 2.8% 0.9% 5.6% 11.3% 1.1% 12.5% Taunton 13.7% Deane 15.3% 3.8% 0.9% 13.2% 15.9% 2.1% South West 12.9% 4.6% 2.0% 7.6% 16.4% 1.6% 13.6% Great Britain 11.9% 4.4% 1.3% 7.0% 15.5% 1.8% 13.4% Source: Annual Business Inquiry, RTP.

Green Jobs Based on Central Government and local aspirations to support a low carbon economy, this is likely to be a future area supporting employment growth. In terms of understanding what is included in the low carbon or green economy sectors, there is a range of ‘narrow’ definitions which cover only sectors producing low carbon goods and services, and similarly there is a range of ‘broader’ definitions that encompass all activities which lead to the whole economy becoming lower carbon. The aim of all policy makers and researchers is to eventually achieve low carbon operations within all sectors of the economy. One of these ‘broad’ definitions is that the green economy is ‘a resilient economy that provides a better quality of life for all within the ecological limits of one planet’. There are businesses, which are actively innovating to produce low carbon goods and services and these are in the sectors of traditional environmental consultancy, waste recycling, pollution mitigation and control, renewable energy, alternative fuel vehicles, alternative fuels, energy management, carbon finance, and low carbon building technologies (Low Carbon and Environmental Goods and Services (LCEGS) sectors BERR, 2009). At the same time other sectors are either using the goods and services

6 Includes some C2 employment in education establishments with boarding and residential provision.

15 produced by the above industries or actively changing their own production and operation processes to ensure carbon neutrality. There is a third layer of the economy, however, which is related to consumption of these goods and services and changing practices and behaviour among businesses, households, and individuals. A narrow definition of low carbon economy has been developed by UK CEED in their 2008 report , which includes waste and sewage, recycling, environmental consulting, activities related to agriculture, water supply and treatment, and electricity distribution and control apparatus. The narrow definition does not really capture what today is considered ‘low carbon’ economy. Broader definitions have been worked out by a range of researchers, e.g. ‘cleantech’ industries of Ernst & Young and Low Carbon and Environmental Goods and Services of Innovas . The latter approach defines the sectors by markets, which, as C. Levy notes, can be limiting due to new technologies and therefore markets emerging rapidly. We therefore focus on SIC-based broad definition of the low carbon economy in the same way as developed by Ekosgen. The broad definition includes some of the manufacturing sectors like chemicals and electronics, which are experiencing change towards products and technologies that aim to reduce carbon emissions, e.g. energy efficient electrical appliances and sustainable materials. Whilst the broad definition based on SIC codes is in itself flawed as it counts in many jobs, which are not yet ‘low carbon’ it provides a snapshot of sectors, which have the best potential to make the transition from traditional to ‘low carbon’. This definition also captures businesses along the supply chain of the main ‘low carbon’ technology producers. It is therefore that aspirational target, which the Taunton Deane Borough Council should pursue in order to support the growth in green jobs. The results of the employment analysis according to the UK CEED narrow definition are presented in Table 6: Table 6 Taunton Deane Employees in Environmental Sectors (narrow definition), 2008 Annual % of total growth Employment LQ7 employment 2004-2008 Sedgemoor 1,092 1.0 2.7% 7.4% South Somerset 1,419 0.8 2.1% 13.2% BANES 4,435 2.2 5.6% 12.5% Bournemouth 858 0.4 1.1% 7.9% Exeter 3,796 1.7 4.5% -0.5% Swindon 3,491 1.2 3.1% 4.6% Taunton Deane 2,242 1.6 4.2% 2.9% South West 64,842 1.1 2.9% 9.9% 689,465 2.9% 6.8% Great Britain Source: RTP; ABI

7 Location Quotient (LQ) is a measure of concentration, in this case measuring a sector’s share of total employment in Taunton Deane borough divided by that sector’s share of total employment in Great Britain. Sectors with an LQ greater than 1 are over-represented in the area against the national norm and those with an LQ below 1 are under-represented. An LQ of 1 indicates that a sector accounts for the same share of total employment in the study area as in the national economy.

16 Growth in these environmental sectors in the borough was quite marginal compared to regional and national averages, and some of the neighbours and major urban areas. Mid Devon, Bath and North East Somerset, and Mendip stand out with their high annual growth. Only Exeter has experienced decline since 2004. Despite the slow momentum of jobs growth in this sector, it is actually over-represented in Taunton Deane compared to the national average. Broad definition of the low carbon economy shows that there have been around 7,000 jobs in the Borough in 2008, which include present and potential green jobs accounting for 13% of employment in Taunton. Growth in these sectors was high at 7% from 2007 to 2008 – second highest among the chosen reference areas after Bath and North East Somerset. Table 7 Potential Low Carbon Sectors in Taunton Deane in 2008 % of total Annual gth Area Employment LQ employment 2007-2008 Sedgemoor 5,055 0.7 12% -3% South Somerset 9,430 0.8 14% 1% Bath and North East Somerset 14,034 1.0 18% 12% Bournemouth 6,901 0.5 9% 2% Exeter 13,970 1.0 17% -5% Swindon 19,965 1.0 18% -2% Taunton Deane 7,037 0.8 13% 7% South West 356,209 0.9 16% 0% Great Britain 4,569,558 17% 2%

Source: RTP; ABI

The Labour Market

Resident- and workplace-based earnings Figure 10 illustrates resident and workplace based earnings for Taunton Deane and the comparator areas. Resident-based earnings (£559) are noticeably higher in Taunton Deane relative to workplace-based earnings (£527). This suggests that residents commute outside Taunton in search of higher paying employment. Moreover, resident based earnings in Taunton are higher than the levels found amongst neighbouring districts; instead, it is more in line with BANES, Bournemouth, Exeter and Swindon. Workplace earnings, also, are higher in Taunton relative to neighbouring areas; however, they remain considerably lower than the levels found in the wider comparator districts.

17 Figure 10 Resident- and Workplace-based Average Gross Weekly Earnings, 2009 550

500

450

400

350 Median Gross Weekly Gross Median Weekly Earnings (£) 300 South Mid Sedgem Bourne Taunton South Great Mendip Somers B&NES Exeter Swindon Devon oor mouth Deane West Britain et Resident Based 466 419 458 436 480 460 424 494 474 460 491 Workplace Based 397 428 400 435 461 479 463 492 456 454 490

Source: Annual Population Survey

The most dominant commuting patterns are shown in Table 8 and illustrated in Figure 11 overleaf. Unsurprisingly, most of Taunton’s out-commuting and in-commuting takes place amongst neighbouring local authorities, especially Sedgemoor and South Somerset. Table 8 Commuting Flows, Taunton Deane, 2001

Residents of Taunton Out Commute to: Workers in Taunton In-commute from: Destination # % Origin # % Taunton Deane 39,503 82.7% Taunton Deane 39,503 76.9% Sedgemoor 2,253 4.7% Sedgemoor 3,572 7.0% South Somerset 1,518 3.2% South Somerset 2,576 5.0% Mid Devon 590 1.2% Mid Devon 1,404 2.7% West Somerset 516 1.1% West Somerset 1,370 2.7% Exeter 512 1.1% East Devon 566 1.1% Bristol, City of 450 0.9% Mendip 410 0.8% North Somerset 279 0.6% North Somerset 350 0.7% Mendip 263 0.6% Exeter 221 0.4% East Devon 262 0.5% West Dorset 127 0.2% South Gloucestershire 210 0.4% Bristol, City of 106 0.2% Greater London 194 0.4% Teignbridge 106 0.2% Rest of UK 1,241 2.6% Rest of UK 1,057 2.1% Total 47,791 100.0% Total 51,368 100.0%

Source: Census. 2001

18 Commuting pattern Figure 11 Commuting Flows, Taunton Deane

Source: Census, RTP

Table 9 shows the commuting balance amongst Taunton and its benchmarks. Taunton has a negative balance indicating that there is a higher level of jobs in the area relative to resident workers; hence, net in-commuting takes place. South Somerset and Swindon also have marginal net inflows, while the net balance in Exeter shows that a significant level of more jobs compared to resident workers exists. On the other hand, neighbouring districts including Sedgemoor and Mid Devon exhibit net outflows of commuting, where total resident worker levels exceed locally available jobs.

19 Table 9 Commuting Balance and Resident Retention Rates

% Retained % Jobs Total Total Net Resident Absorbed by Workers Jobs Balance Workers Local Residents Mendip 45,853 42,600 3,253 74% 80% Mid Devon 32,679 26,848 5,831 68% 82% Sedgemoor 47,880 40,953 6,927 70% 82% South Somerset 70,467 71,635 -1,168 83% 82% BANES 76,724 73,228 3,496 74% 77% Bournemouth 71,684 71,539 145 65% 65% Exeter 51,367 71,179 -19,812 82% 59% Swindon 89,640 94,419 -4,779 89% 84% Taunton Deane 47,791 51,368 -3,577 83% 77%

Source: Census, 2001

The table also reveals the retention levels of resident workers as well as the proportion of jobs that these retained workers absorb. Taunton has a relatively high local job retention rate of 83%; this proportion takes up around 77% of the local jobs. High retention and jobs take-up rates are also demonstrated by South Somerset and Swindon. Despite a high retention level in Exeter, only about 60% of the jobs are taken up by local resident workers. Retention levels are slightly lower in Mendip, Med Devon, Sedgemoor relative to Taunton and the other districts. However, in all these areas, local workers take up around 80% of the local jobs.

20 Taunton Deane Borough Council Final Report | December 2010

APPENDIX 2

Sector Definitions and Conversions to Space Requirements

Final Report | December 2010

APPENDIX 2: SECTOR DEFINITIONS AND CONVERSIONS TO SPACE REQUIREMENTS

Converting Employment to Business Space Requirements Using the employment sector forecasts, we translate jobs into demand for employment space by following three steps:

. Step 1: Sector-to-Space Mapping . Step 2: Translating Employment into Demand for Space . Step 3: Converting Floorspace into Land Area (Plot ratios)  To this end, there are three main areas where the assumptions are applied:  The definition of employment sectors and land use sectors  Employment density assumptions  Plot ratio assumptions We look at each of these stages below. Step 1: Sector-to-Space Mapping The starting point for any modelling process is the definition of land use sectors, which comprises office jobs, industrial and warehousing jobs and is often referred to as business or B-space jobs. We translate jobs by sector into jobs by type of space, using sector-to-space mapping. To identify these jobs we use a range of economic sectors based on the Standard Industrial Classifications (SIC’03), which are listed below. Broadly, our analysis assumes that offices (which include R&D) are occupied by financial and business services, a sub section of public administration, and publishing. Industrial space is occupied by manufacturing, sewage and refuse disposal, some parts of construction, and motor repairs and maintenance. Warehousing is occupied by a variety of transport and distribution activities. We merge production and distribution space (industrial and warehousing) into one category, called “industrial/warehousing” because our experience suggests that data on the supply of space - such as CLG floorspace statistics and planning data on completions and commitments – do not distinguish accurately between industrial factories and warehouses. This is not surprising since production and distribution can generally operate in the same buildings and, furthermore, subject to size limitations, space can be transferred between production and distribution without planning permission.

RTP Offices 2003 SIC

SIC 2003 class (4 digit) 7460 : Investigation and security activities 7485 : Secretarial and translation services 7486 : Call centre activities 7487 : Other business activities not elsewhere classified 9111 : Activities of business and employers organisations 9112 : Activities of professional organisations 9120: Activities of trade unions 9132 : Activities of political organisations 9133 : Activities of other membership organisations not elsewhere classified 9211 : Motion picture and video production 9212 : Motion picture and video distribution 9220 : Radio and television activities 9240 : News agency activities

SIC 2003 group (3 digit) 221 : Publishing 741 : Legal, accounting, book-keeping and auditing activities; tax consultancy; market research and public opinion polling; business and management consultancy; holdings 742 : Architectural and engineering activities and related technical consultancy 743 : Technical testing and analysis 744 : Advertising 751 : Administration of the State and the economic and social policy of the community 753 : Compulsory social security activities

SIC 2003 division (2 digit) 65 : Financial intermediation, except insurance and pension funding 66 : Insurance and pension funding, except compulsory social security 67 : Activities auxiliary to financial intermediation 70 : Real estate activities 72 : Computer and related activities 73 : Research and development

RTP Industrial 2003 SIC

SIC 2003 class (4 digit) 5020: Maintenance and repair of motor vehicles 5040 : Sale, maintenance and repair of motorcycles and related parts and accessories

SIC 2003 group (3 digit) 222 : Printing and services activities related to printing 223 : Reproduction of recorded media 453 : Building installation 454 : Building completion

SIC 2003 division (2 digit) 15 : Manufacturing of food and beverages 16 : Manufacture of tobacco products 17 : Manufacture of textiles 18 : Manufacture of wearing apparel; dressing and dyeing of fur 19 : Tanning and dressing of leather; manufacture of luggage, handbags, saddlery, harness and footwear 20 : Manufacture of wood and products of wood and cork, except furniture; manufacture of articles of straw and plaiting materials 21 : Manufacture of pulp, paper and paper products 23 : Manufacture of coke, refined petroleum products and nuclear fuel 24 : Manufacture of chemicals and chemical products 25 : Manufacture of rubber and plastic products 26 : Manufacture of other non-metallic mineral products 27 : Manufacture basic metals 28 : Manufacture of fabricated metal products, except machinery and equipment 29 : Manufacture of machinery and equipment not elsewhere classified 30 : Manufacture of office machinery and computers 31 : Manufacture of electrical machinery and apparatus not elsewhere classified 32 : Manufacture of radio, television and communication equipment and apparatus 33 : Manufacture of medical, precision and optical instruments, watches and clocks 34 : Manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers 35 : Manufacture of transport equipment 36 : Manufacture of furniture; manufacturing not elsewhere classified 37 : Recycling 90 : Sewage and refuse disposal, sanitation and similar activities

RTP Warehousing 2003 SIC

SIC 2003 class (4 digit) 6024 : Freight transport by road 6311 : Cargo handling 6312 : Storage and warehousing 6321 : Other supporting land transport activities 6411 : National post activities 6412 : Courier activities other than national post activities 7482 : Packaging activities

SIC 2003 division (2 digit) 51 : Wholesale trade and commission trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycle

Results: Table 1: B-space Jobs, Taunton Deane, 2006-26

Change 2006-26 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 # % Food, Textiles & Wood 1,100 1,000 900 700 600 -500 -45% Printing adj forecast 573 573 625 625 678 104 18% Chemicals & Minerals 1,000 900 900 800 700 -300 -30% Metals & Engineering 400 400 300 300 300 -100 -25% Electronics 500 400 300 200 200 -300 -60% Transport Equipment 0 0 0 0 0 0 0% Other Manufacturing 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 0 0% Total Manufacturing 4,573 4,273 4,025 3,625 3,478 -1,096 -24% Construction adj forecast 1,130 1,169 1,208 1,208 1,247 117 10% Motor vehicles adj forecast 864 921 978 1,051 1,116 253 29% Sewage adj forecast 520 576 650 706 762 241 46% Labour Recruitment Adj forecast 189 191 195 194 203 13 7% Total Other Industrial 2,703 2,857 3,030 3,159 3,327 624 23% TOTAL INDUSTRIAL 7,276 7,130 7,055 6,784 6,804 -472 -6% Wholesaling adj forecast 3,177 3,387 3,597 3,866 4,106 929 29% Transport & Comms adj forecast 111 111 111 111 111 0 0% Packaging adj forecast 96 104 111 120 129 34 35% Labour Recruitment Adj forecast 90 99 108 121 133 43 48% TOTAL WAREHOUSING 3,474 3,701 3,927 4,217 4,479 1,006 29% TOTAL IND/WHSG 10,749 10,831 10,982 11,002 11,284 534 5% Publishing adj forecast 527 527 575 575 622 96 18% Banking & Insurance 1,500 1,500 1,500 1,500 1,500 - 0% Business Services adj forecast 6,452 7,019 7,516 8,083 8,721 2,269 35% Other Services Adj forecast 385 426 481 522 563 179 46% Public Admin & Defence Adj forecast 5,378 5,378 5,154 5,004 4,780 - 598 -11% Labour Recruitment Adj forecast 380 410 432 462 497 116 31% TOTAL OFFICES 14,622 15,259 15,657 16,146 16,683 2,062 14% TOTAL B SPACE JOBS 25,371 26,090 26,639 27,148 27,967 2,596 10% TOTAL 62,300 65,600 68,300 70,700 73,300 11,000 18% B Space as % of Total Jobs 41% 40% 39% 38% 38% 24%

Source: Cambridge Econometrics, RTP Note, though these figures for each sector are shown in detail, they should be treated with a degree of caution as they are very sensitive to local factors and subject to a range of uncertainty. They should be considered as an indication of the likely scale of outturn by 2026 rather than specific and certain numbers. Step 2: Translating Employment into Demand for Space To translate these employment forecasts into demand for space, we use the standard employment densities based on a 1997 study by Roger Tym & Partners for SERPLAN (The Use of Business Space: Employment Densities and Working Practices in South East England, 1997). These are as follows:

. Offices: 18 sq m per worker . Industrial/warehousing: 35 sq m per worker, or We prefer to use the densities above to the available alternatives because they are supported by a large and statistically rigorous survey. However, a more recent (albeit not statistically confident) survey by DTZ Pieda (2004) for SEERA found similar densities (18 sq m net for B1, 34 sq m for

B2 and 41 sq m per B8). And similarly, Government Guidance on Use of Employment Densities (2001) offers a compendium of employment densities which also average around those reported above. It is often asserted that employment densities are rising, especially in offices, because of changing working practices such as hot-desking, teleworking and homeworking, and increasing competitive pressure on corporate occupiers to use space cost-effectively. There is some evidence to support these views, with examples such as IBM and BP seeking ratios of 10-11 sq m per person, and the HM Treasury building refurbishment, which aims for a good, modern standard for use by the public sector, has around 8 sq m of space per job through use of flexible working patterns. However, the view that office employment densities are rising overall – as opposed to rising in particular businesses or groups of businesses - is not supported by statistically reliable evidence so far. Indeed DTZ Pieda’s recent study for SEERA concluded that employment densities have not changed significantly from those in the RTP SERPLAN study. Certainly it is possible that the average office density will increase substantially in the future. But, on the evidence available to date, it would not be right to incorporate such an increase into our forecasts. Even if we wanted to create a contingent ‘worst-case’ scenario to explore the impact of a possible rise in densities, from the data available we would not know what size of increase we should test. Therefore, we use constant employment densities. Step 3: Converting Floorspace into Land Area Planners have to make land allocations in development plans, which are normally controlled by site area (as opposed to floorspace) it is sometime necessary to translate floorspace into land. As a general ‘rule of thumb’ RTP adopts a 40% plot ratio, which is equivalent to 4,000 sq m per hectare. However, a sample survey covering recent development sites within Taunton Deane show an average of 25% (2,500 sq m per hectare) being developed. This suggests that the 40% ratio may be too high for Taunton Deane, and therefore we use the lower (25%) ratio because this is the local trend. However, a 25% ratio is probably reasonable for most industrial and warehouse sites, but for offices densities it may be considerably higher, at some sites, especially in town and city centres. Therefore, where possible, the 25% ratio should be replaced by site-specific figures which take account of local circumstances, and at a minimum be at least 40%, to reflect evidence about office locations in the RTP/SERPLAN (1997) report. Converting Employment to None Business Space Requirements For indicative purposes, we translate jobs into demand for non B-space sectors (such as retail, leisure and public and community services) into land use forms such as shops, leisure facilities, education and health institutions by following the same steps as above. he results for Taunton Deane are shown in Table 2.

Table 2 Non B-space Jobs, Taunton Deane, 2006-2026

Change 2006-2026 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 #% A1 Distribution forecast 7,673 8,180 8,687 9,338 9,917 2,244 29% A1 Transport & Comms adj forecast 467 467 467 467 467 0 0% A1 Misc Services adj forecast 372 412 465 505 544 173 46% A1 Other Bus Serv adj forecast 74 81 87 93 100 26 35% Total A1 Shops 8,586 9,139 9,705 10,403 11,029 2,443 28% A3-A5 Hotels & Catering adj forecast 2,203 2,423 2,570 2,716 2,863 661 30% Total A3, A4, A5 Restaurants, Bars, Hot 2,203 2,423 2,570 2,716 2,863 661 30% Food Takeaways C1 Hotels & Catering adj forecast 415 456 484 511 539 124 30% Total C1 Hotels 415 456 484 511 539 124 30% C2 Education & Health adj forecast 7,155 7,839 8,386 8,796 9,206 2,051 29% Total C2 Residential Institutions (health and 7,155 7,839 8,386 8,796 9,206 2,051 29% social care) D1 Education & Health adj forecast 8,538 9,353 10,006 10,495 10,985 2,447 29% D1 Misc Services adj forecast 191 211 239 259 280 89 46% D1 Public Admin & Def adj forecast 212 212 203 197 188 -24 -11% Total D1 Non-Residential Institutions 8,940 9,776 10,447 10,951 11,452 2,512 28% (education, health practices) D2 Misc Serv adj forecast 1,034 1,145 1,293 1,403 1,514 480 46% Total D2 Assembly and Leisure 1,034 1,145 1,293 1,403 1,514 480 46% SG Distribution adj forecast 921 982 1,043 1,121 1,191 269 29% SG Hotels & Catering adj forecast 345 379 402 425 448 103 30% SG Misc Serv adj forecast 288 318 359 390 421 133 46% SG Construction adj forecast 1,775 1,836 1,897 1,897 1,958 184 10% SG Transport & Telecomms adj forecast 585 585 585 585 585 0 0% SG Other Bus Services adj forecast 867 943 1,010 1,086 1,172 305 35% SG Public Admin & Def adj forecast 1,479 1,479 1,417 1,376 1,314 -164 -11% Electricity, Gas & Water 300.0 300.0 200.0 200.0 200.0 -100 -33% Agriculture etc 2,200.0 2,100.0 2,000.0 1,900.0 1,800.0 -400 -18% Total Sui Generis 8,760 8,923 8,914 8,981 9,090 331 4% TOTAL NON B-SPACE JOBS 37,093 39,702 41,798 43,763 45,694 8,602 23% TOTAL 62,300 65,600 68,300 70,700 73,300 11,000 18% Non-B Space as % of total 60% 61% 61% 62% 62% 78%

Source: Cambridge Econometrics, RTP Note, though these figures for each sector are shown in detail, they should be treated with a degree of caution as they are very sensitive to local factors and subject to a range of uncertainty. They should be considered as an indication of the likely scale of outturn by 2026 rather than specific and certain numbers. Using employment densities and plot ratio (for converting to land area) more appropriate to individual non B-space sectors. These employment densities are sourced from OffPat Employment Densities Appraisal Advice Note No 1 (2001)8, and are as follows: . A1 Shops = 20 sq m per worker . A3, A4, A5 Restaurants, Bars, Hot Food Takeaways = 13 sq m per worker . C1 Hotels = 2 beds per worker . C2 Education and Health = 30 sq m per worker

8

. D1 Education and Health = 20 sq m per worker . D1 Miscellaneous Services = 36 sq m per worker . D2 Miscellaneous Services = 68 sq m per worker . Sui Generis – Distribution = 38 sq m per worker . Sui Generis - Other Business Services = 32 sq m per worker This method is less reliable for non B-space sectors than for B-space sectors due to the greater variety of land use forms in non B-space sectors, and the results is only to give an indication of space requirements. Any result must therefore be treated with a high degree of caution.