Real-Time Epidemic Monitoring and Forecasting of H1N1-2009 Using Influenza-Like Illness from General Practice and Family Doctor Clinics in Singapore
Real-Time Epidemic Monitoring and Forecasting of H1N1-2009 Using Influenza-Like Illness from General Practice and Family Doctor Clinics in Singapore Jimmy Boon Som Ong1, Mark I-Cheng Chen1,2,3, Alex R. Cook4*, Huey Chyi Lee4, Vernon J. Lee3,5,6, Raymond Tzer Pin Lin7, Paul Ananth Tambyah8, Lee Gan Goh8,9 1 Department of Clinical Epidemiology, Tan Tock Seng Hospital, Singapore, Singapore, 2 Duke-NUS Graduate Medical School, Singapore, Singapore, 3 Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore, 4 Department of Statistics and Applied Probability, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore, 5 Biodefence Centre, Ministry of Defence, Singapore, Singapore, 6 National Centre for Epidemiology & Population Health, Australian National University, Canberra, Australia, 7 National Public Health Laboratory, Ministry of Health, Singapore, Singapore, 8 Department of Medicine, National University Hospital, Singapore, Singapore, 9 College of Family Physicians, Singapore, Singapore Abstract Background: Reporting of influenza-like illness (ILI) from general practice/family doctor (GPFD) clinics is an accurate indicator of real-time epidemic activity and requires little effort to set up, making it suitable for developing countries currently experiencing the influenza A (H1N1 -2009) pandemic or preparing for subsequent epidemic waves. Methodology/Principal Findings: We established a network of GPFDs in Singapore. Participating GPFDs submitted returns via facsimile or e-mail on their work days using a simple, standard data collection format, capturing: gender; year of birth; ‘‘ethnicity’’; residential status; body temperature (uC); and treatment (antiviral or not); for all cases with a clinical diagnosis of an acute respiratory illness (ARI). The operational definition of ILI in this study was an ARI with fever of 37.8uC or more.
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