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Trading Market Trends with Intermarket Analysis and Etfs 12 March 2017 Overview

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Trading Market Trends with Intermarket Analysis and Etfs 12 March 2017 Overview Trading Market Trends with Intermarket Analysis and ETFs 12 March 2017 Overview 1. Factors to consider when choosing ETFs 2. ETF liquidity – Traded Liquidity vs Implied Liquidity 3. Different types of ETFs 4. Putting it all together – how to start using ETFs in your portfolio 5. Business cycle and asset class rotation 6. Using market carpets to spot market trends 7. Market trends involving various asset classes Factors to consider when evaluating ETFs Key factors for consideration 1. Underlying index tracked by the ETF 2. Replication method 3. Management fees / Expense ratio 4. Tracking error / tracking difference 1. Underlying index tracked by the ETF The MOST IMPORTANT factor driving the performance of the ETF! Source: Aminvest, as of 28 February 2017. Any securities mentioned herein are for illustration purposes only and should not be construed as a recommendation for investment. 1. Underlying index tracked by the ETF The underlying index tracked by the ETF provides you a good idea of what are you investing in! Source: CIMB Principal Asset Management, as of 28 February 2017. Any securities mentioned herein are for illustration purposes only and should not be construed as a recommendation for investment. 1. Underlying index tracked by the ETF The underlying index tracked by the ETF provides you a good idea of what are you investing in! CIMB FTSE China 50 ETF Source: CIMB Principal Asset Management, as of 28 February 2017. Any securities mentioned herein are for illustration purposes only and should not be construed as a recommendation for investment. 2. Replication Method (Physical replication) The replication method gives you an idea how the ETF tracks the underlying index. Prospectus of FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI ETF Source: Aminvest, as of 28 February 2017. Any securities mentioned herein are for illustration purposes only and should not be construed as a recommendation for investment. 2. Replication Method (Synthetic replication) The replication method gives you an idea how the ETF tracks the underlying index. Source: Aminvest, as of 28 February 2017. Any securities mentioned herein are for illustration purposes only and should not be construed as a recommendation for investment. 3. Management fees / Expense Ratio Management fees / Expense ratio indicates how much are you paying for the ETF. Source: CIMB Principal Asset Management, as of 28 February 2017. Any securities mentioned herein are for illustration purposes only and should not be construed as a recommendation for investment. 4. Tracking error / Tracking difference Tracking error or tracking difference indicates how much the performance of the ETF is deviating from the index performance. Source: CIMB Principal Asset Management, as of 28 February 2017. Any securities mentioned herein are for illustration purposes only and should not be construed as a recommendation for investment. ETF liquidity Traded liquidity vs Implied liquidity Traded liquidity vs Implied liquidity The true liquidity of an ETF is determined by how liquid the underlying index components are! It is useful for traded liquidity (i.e. traded volumes on the stock exchange) to be high as it makes it easier for smaller retail investors to enter / exit the ETF BUT MORE importantly, the liquidity of the underlying index components needs to be liquid – as this represents the TRUE POTENTIAL of the ETF’s liquidity. Traded liquidity vs Implied liquidity ETF Implied Liquidity Implied on the Liquidity asset class on the asset class Implied Liquidity Traded on the liquidity asset class Traded liquidity Traded Traded liquidity Traded liquidity liquidity Current traded volume of FTSE KLCI ETF An ETF with higher traded volumes makes it easier for investors to enter/exit. Bid / ask spread of FTSE KLCI ETF An ETF with smaller bid-ask spreads make it easier for investors to enter/exit. The TRUE implied liquidity of FTSE KLCI ETF Creation/Redemption Basket 15-day average % of average daily size for 836,000 units daily traded volume traded volume Ticker 1 British American Tobacco 400 241,000 0.2% ROTH MK 2 PPB Group Berhad 1,700 628,000 0.3% PEP MK 3 RHB Bank Berhad 2,500 3,675,000 0.1% RHBBANK MK 4 AMMB Holdings 5,200 6,474,000 0.1% AMM MK 5 CIMB Group Holdings 16,800 14,483,000 0.1% CIMB MK Based on the 6 Hong Leong Bank 1,900 1,068,000 0.2% HLBK MK 7 Hong Leong Financial Group 500 226,000 0.2% HLFG MK creation / 8 Malayan Banking Bhd 16,600 13,671,000 0.1% MAY MK 9 Public Bank Bhd 9,200 4,796,000 0.2% PBK MK redemption basket 10 Petronas Chemicals Group 8,500 8,049,000 0.1% PCHEM MK 11 Petronas Gas Bhd 2,300 1,380,000 0.2% PTG MK of FTSE KLCI ETF, 12 Digi.com Bhd 11,100 5,809,000 0.2% DIGI MK 13 IOI Corp 9,900 6,441,000 0.2% IOI MK market makers are 14 Kuala Lumpur Kepong 1,600 1,360,000 0.1% KLK MK 15 KLCC Prop & KLCC Reits 800 1,265,000 0.1% KLCCSS MK able to trade large 16 Astro Malaysia Holdings 5,400 1,997,000 0.3% ASTRO MK 17 Axiata Group 13,500 9,702,000 0.1% AXIATA MK volumes of this ETF 18 Genting Bhd 6,600 3,714,000 0.2% GENT MK 19 Genting Malaysia Bhd 8,400 8,424,000 0.1% GENM MK without much 20 Hap Seng Conso 1,000 283,000 0.4% HAP MK 21 IHH Healthcare Bhd 8,300 6,358,000 0.1% IHH MK market impact! 22 Maxis Bhd 7,800 2,835,000 0.3% MAXIS MK 23 MISC Bhd 4,400 2,927,000 0.2% MISC MK 24 Petronas Dagangan Bhd 800 478,000 0.2% PETD MK 25 IJM 9,400 3,678,000 0.3% IJM MK 26 Sime Darby Berhad 10,200 8,957,000 0.1% SIME MK 27 Telekom Malaysia 6,600 5,228,000 0.1% T MK 28 Tenaga Nasional Bhd 10,500 8,045,000 0.1% TNB MK 29 Westports Holdings 2,400 3,487,000 0.1% WPRTS MK 30 YTL Corp Bhd 13,300 4,166,000 0.3% YTL MK Source: Aminvest, Bloomberg, as of 9 March 2017. Any securities mentioned herein are for illustration purposes only and should not be construed as a recommendation for investment. Different types of ETFs Equity ETFs, Bond ETFs, Smart Beta ETFs, Alternative ETFs, Leveraged & Inverse ETFs, Actively managed ETFs 1. Equity ETFs (Broad market ETFs) Example: FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI ETF Source: Aminvest, as of 28 February 2017. Any securities mentioned herein are for illustration purposes only and should not be construed as a recommendation for investment. 1. Equity ETFs (Broad market ETFs) Example: SPDR S&P 500 ETF (Ticker: SPY) Source: SPDR.com, as of 28 February 2017. Any securities mentioned herein are for illustration purposes only and should not be construed as a recommendation for investment. 1. Equity ETFs (Broad market ETFs) Example: SPDR S&P 500 ETF (Ticker: SPY) Source: Bloomberg, as of 28 February 2017. Any securities mentioned herein are for illustration purposes only and should not be construed as a recommendation for investment. 1. Equity ETFs (Industry Sector ETFs) Example: Energy Select Sector SPDR (Ticker: XLE) Source: SPDR.com, as of 28 February 2017. Any securities mentioned herein are for illustration purposes only and should not be construed as a recommendation for investment. 1. Equity ETFs (Industry Sector ETFs) Example: Energy Select Sector SPDR (Ticker: XLE) Source: Bloomberg, as of 8 March 2017. Any securities mentioned herein are for illustration purposes only and should not be construed as a recommendation for investment. 2. Bond ETFs Example: ABF Malaysia Bond Index Fund Source: Aminvest, as of 28 February 2017. Any securities mentioned herein are for illustration purposes only and should not be construed as a recommendation for investment. 2. Bond ETFs Example: ABF Malaysia Bond Index Fund Source: Aminvest, as of 28 February 2017. Any securities mentioned herein are for illustration purposes only and should not be construed as a recommendation for investment. 2. Bond ETFs Example: iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF Source: iShares BlackRock, as of 28 February 2017. Any securities mentioned herein are for illustration purposes only and should not be construed as a recommendation for investment. 2. Bond ETFs Example: iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF Source: iShares BlackRock, as of 28 February 2017. Any securities mentioned herein are for illustration purposes only and should not be construed as a recommendation for investment. 2. Bond ETFs Example: iShares Barclays USD Asia High Yield Bond Index ETF iShares Barclays USD Asia Credit Bond Index ETF Performance (MYR) Dec 2011 – Dec 2016 1 230.00 Calendar Year Performance (MYR) 214.6 210.00 iShares Barclays USD Asia HY Bond Index ETF 190.00 188.4 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 17.5% 9.2% 12.7% 27.8% 16.1% 170.00 150.00 iShares JPM USD Asia Credit Bond Index 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 130.00 10.5% 4.5% 16.5% 25.0% 11.1% 110.00 90.00 Dec 11 Dec 12 Dec 13 Dec 14 Dec 15 Dec 16 iShares JPMorgan USD Asia Credit Bond Index ETF iShares Barclays USD Asia High Yield Bond Index ETf Source: Bloomberg, as of 31 December 2016. 1 Performance figures are based on the NAV prices of the ETFs and are presented in MYR terms assuming the reinvestment of dividends (if any). Any securities mentioned herein are for illustration purposes only and should not be construed as a recommendation for investment.
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