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A Warm Christmas for Retailers 2017 Christmas Sales Performance of the Major Markets

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A Warm Christmas for Retailers 2017 Christmas Sales Performance of the Major Markets 29 Dec 2017 A Warm Christmas for Retailers 2017 Christmas Sales Performance of the Major Markets The run-up to Christmas marks the end of the year and the final sprint for retailers, a time when the festive atmosphere drives shoppers to purchase gifts, decorations and other supplies for both the upcoming yuletide and the imminent New Year. Every year, the level of Christmas or year-end sales in many of Hong Kong’s exports markets serves as a barometer of the economic health of individual countries and trading blocs. With 2017 having seen a continued recovery in the global economy, there has been consequently strong growth in Hong Kong’s exports. The sustained nature of this growth was borne out by a robust performance by the retail sector in most countries, a reassuring indicator that the growth momentum of the global consumer market is likely to be maintained in 2018. United States In the US, consumers enjoyed a ‘warmer’ Christmas this year, a consequence of the more favourable economic situation. According to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, the November unemployment rate saw the country’s 16-year low of 4.1% sustained for a further month. Additional cheer came from the fact that the US Consumer Sentiment Index, as published by the University of Michigan, reached its highest level for almost 17 years back in October. Overall, personal consumption expenditure, which accounts for more than two-thirds of US economic activity, increased by 0.6% in November (month- on-month), following a marginal increase of 0.2% in October. Thankfully, the favourable retail environment suggested by the macroeconomic data converted into a positive sales performance for the start of the holiday shopping season. Although the overall sales figures for December – as well as for the entire holiday period – will not be released until January, the high level of spending over the post-Thanksgiving Black Friday weekend, as well as on the ever more popular Cyber Monday, provided an early indication that retailers were likely to be kept busy in the run-up to Christmas. According to the US Census Bureau, the overall growth rate of the US retail sector accelerated to 5.8% in November, up from 4.9% in October. In addition, the National Retail Federation predicted that US retail sales would show a 3.6-4% increase over the holiday season when compared to 2016. Seeming to endorse this, Mastercard estimated the year-on-year increase would be around 4.9%, the largest such rise since 2011. In terms of actual shopping behaviour, American consumers long ago began a mass migration to online shopping in preference to in-store purchases, a trend that was clearly sustained this year. According to figures from the National Retail Federation, online (and other non-store) sales enjoyed 10.5% year-on-year growth in November. In addition, Cyber Monday 2017 – the online equivalent to Black Friday and which fell on 27 November this year – was the biggest day for online shopping in US history, with record sales of US$6.59 billion, a 16.8% rise over last year, according to Adobe Analytics. 1 A Warm Christmas for Retailers In a similarly positive sign, data provided by Mastercard SpendingPulse showed that the level of online retail shopping has jumped by 18.1% across the entire holiday season. Deloitte’s 2017 Holiday Survey was, again, upbeat and indicated that this year US shoppers will spend more online than in-store for the first time, with the majority of purchases made via desktop computers. Clothing again topped the US Christmas shopping list this year, with many consumers wooed by the discounts on offer throughout the festive season. Apparel aside, there was also growing demand for consumer electronics products, especially among the more tech- savvy younger generation. With the US market now in a post-smartphone boom period, consumers have shifted their focus to smart-home devices, such as Google’s Home and Amazon’s Echo and Alexa devices. In line with this, Amazon, the global e-tailing giant, reported that its best-selling product over the holiday season was the Echo Dot, its proprietary smart home device. Given that Christmas is traditionally a time to celebrate with friends and family, entertainment-oriented systems that allowed for a shared experience – including AR/VR headsets, video games and the Nintendo Switch, Xbox One and PlayStation 4 gaming consoles – were in considerable demand. According to Mastercard, sales of electronics and appliances overall rose by 7.5% year-on-year, while several toy ranges, including LEGO, Star Wars and Disney, also performed impressively. Among those who wanted to streamline their Christmas largesse, gift cards remained a popular option. Europe Overall, Europe enjoyed a moderate economic recovery in 2017, with the EU economy as a whole expected to have achieved growth of 2.3% this year, at least according to the European Commission’s Autumn 2017 European Economic Forecast. Despite such optimism, there remained very real concerns that terror attacks could disrupt Europe’s Christmas markets, concerns that were further fuelled by the release of a series of propaganda posters showing attacks in a number of locations, including London and the Vatican. Overall, though, the majority of European shoppers are expected to have spent lavishly this year, with the exception of the UK, where growth is expected to be slower than the EU average. In addition, UK retailers may also have to contend with the problems of higher inflation and import prices, as well as reduced consumer confidence. While Brexit remains the biggest source of concern and uncertainty with regard to the UK economy, the conclusion of the first phase of the EU divorce talks in mid-December may have provided a degree of damage limitation and proved a boon to the retail sector ahead of the holiday season. According to the Office for National Statistics, UK retail sales edged up by 1.6% in volume terms and 4.7% in value terms year-on-year as of November, a figure boosted by Black Friday spending following a 0.3% drop in October, the first since 2013. Online sales, meanwhile, continued to enjoy rapid growth, recording a 10.2% year-on-year rise in November, a sure sign that British consumers are continuing to reduce their in-store spending. Indeed, for November, online sales accounted for 17% of all retail spending, an increase from the 16.1% recorded for November 2016. While many UK retailers were confident that Super Saturday (23 December), the last full shopping day before Christmas, would see a flood of last-minute shoppers, they still had a number of concerns. Most notably, consumer confidence weakened in December, dropping to its lowest level for four years. UK households also had to contend with 2 A Warm Christmas for Retailers inflation climbing to 3.1% in November, its highest level for nearly six years, while average weekly wages grew by just 2.3% over the three-month period ending October 2017. In another change, the import of the Black Friday concept from the US has inspired UK consumers to begin their holiday shopping well in advance of Christmas, rather than spending in a more concentrated period. One casualty of this has been the country’s traditional Boxing Day sales, with receipts expected to be down this year. When combined with the increasing popularity of online shopping, the UK’s shopping centres and high streets have inevitably seen a decline in overall footfall. Shoppers are also expected to spend a higher proportion of their income on groceries, a consequence of stalled salary levels and increasing food prices. With the memory of last year’s attack on Berlin’s Christmas market receding, the German economy enjoyed robust growth over the last 12 months, with the country’s retailers confident that this will be reflected in their Christmas takings. At present, German unemployment is at its lowest level since 1990, with October seeing an adjusted unemployment rate of just 3.6%. In light of these favourable economic conditions, the German Retail Federation (HDE) expects sales over the Christmas period to rise by 3%, taking the total to a record high of €94.5 billion (US$112.9 billion). In the case of France, its domestic economy has improved in line with the gradual expansion of the overall European economy. As with its German counterpart, the French economy expanded at a relatively rapid pace throughout the year, with the country’s National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies (Insee) anticipating overall growth of 1.9% for 2017. According to the Commerce Federation (Fevad), French shoppers are also expected to spend more online this year, with total e-commerce sales expected to be around €15.8 billion, a 13% year-on-year rise. As a whole, December 2017 has already proven to be a record month for credit and debit card transactions. For Europe as a whole, electrical and household electronic appliances – including smart TVs, computers, smartphones and tablets – are expected to have made the largest contribution to overall sales levels this year, with video games and other entertainment- related electronics items also likely to have proved popular. A significant number of present-buyers, however, will still have opted for gift vouchers, while sales of clothing and toys are also expected to have enjoyed steady growth in the run-up to Christmas. Asia Switching the wider focus to Asia and to Japan in particular, the country’s holiday shopping peak season is expected to start a little later than in the west, with Black Friday gaining increasing traction, though yet to compete with the hugely popular New Year sales.
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