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Reflections on the New Operating Procedures Adopted by the Federal Reflections Edwin M. Truman y reflections on the new operating CORRECT DIAGNOSIS? procedures that were adopted The Carter administration came into office by the Federal Open Market dissatisfied about U.S. economic growth and Committee (FOMC) on October 6, determined to lead an international effort to pro- M1979, derive from my responsibilities at the mote U.S. and global expansion—the locomotive Federal Reserve Board at the time. Those respon- theory. Economic activity did accelerate in the sibilities included preparation of the international United States in 1977, and so did the price level, component of the staff forecast, analysis of econ- but most of the rise was in increases in prices of omic and financial developments in other coun- food and energy. The U.S. current account deficit tries, and assisting the Chairman and members also widened, which was seen as sapping the U.S. of the Board (primarily Henry C. Wallich) with expansion. This situation prompted Treasury international responsibilities in connection with Secretary Blumenthal in June 1977 to make his their attendance at international meetings. There- comments on the unsustainable U.S. deficit at fore, mine was and is an international perspective. the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and I was not involved in the design of the new oper- Development (OECD). These comments estab- ating procedures, although I was informed that lished his reputation for “talking down” the dollar. the project was under way. By the fall of 1977, the Federal Reserve was The decision on October 6, 1979, was very intervening quite heavily (by the standards of much part of an international policy coordination the time) in foreign exchange markets to resist process that played out with our partners abroad, the dollar’s decline. That decline was seen at the Federal Reserve and in other policy circles as principally in Europe, as well as within the U.S. adding to U.S. inflation. We on the international government, in the late 1970s. In thinking about side of the Federal Reserve at this time used to such episodes of policy coordination, I find it joke that the view at the Federal Reserve seemed useful to try to answer a sequence of questions: to be that inflation was caused by rising prices; (i) Was the diagnosis of a need for policy action Federal Reserve policy had nothing to do with it. correct? (ii) Was there agreement on the model With the transition from Arthur F. Burns to or framework used to analyze the situation? (iii) G. William Miller as Chairman, the situation did Were the right policy choices made? My reflections not improve, though Miller was more effective in are organized around those three questions. My dealing with the administration. He succeeded answers are as follows: (i) Eventually the correct where Burns had failed—in convincing the U.S. diagnosis was made. (ii) Agreement on the analytic Treasury that the Treasury could absorb the poten- framework was loose at best. (iii) The right choices tial financial costs of issuing foreign currency– were made, but in retrospect at a high price that denominated debt (what came to be known as probably would be higher today. Carter bonds) as a cost of issuance. Edwin M. Truman is a senior fellow at the Institute for International Economics. In October 1979, he was director of the Division of International Finance of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (1977-98). Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, March/April 2005, 87(2, Part 2), pp. 353-57. © 2005, The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS REVIEW MARCH/APRIL, PART 2 2005 353 Truman The dollar continued to decline after the call for stepped-up U.S. intervention in foreign Bonn Summit in July 1978, at which the grand exchange markets. It was felt that the economy bargain was struck to stimulate growth abroad in was headed for recession, so the scope for raising return for a U.S. pledge to reduce its dependence interest rates was limited.2 on imported oil. The decline turned into more of During that summer, the FOMC did push up a free-fall in October in reaction to the announce- the federal funds rate at the same time it was ment of President Carter’s program of budget participating in foreign exchange market inter- restraint and voluntary wage and price guidelines. vention. By September, it was becoming increas- The Federal Reserve under Chairman Miller ingly clear that we were behind the curve. The anticipated this reaction, and a plan was devel- new operating procedure was under development oped to correct “the excessive exchange rate move- in-house. ments” that followed the announcement. The Paul Volcker, who was appointed as Federal plan called for a cooperative $30 billion package Reserve Chairman in 1979, traveled to the Inter- of foreign currency resources to finance Treasury national Monetary Fund/World Bank annual and Federal Reserve intervention. However, it meetings in Belgrade on the Treasury plane. On was noteworthy that the Bundesbank would not the way, they stopped in Hamburg for conversa- agree to the package, which included doubling tions with their German counterparts. One inter- the Federal Reserve’s swap line with it and coop- pretation of that stop was that Treasury officials eration on the issuance of Carter bonds, until the were trying to drum up German support for a new Federal Reserve agreed to a decisive monetary rescue package for the dollar. In fact, they received policy move that took the form of an unprece- a harangue from the German authorities about dented 1-percentage-point increase in the dis- getting the U.S. economic house in order. It was count rate to 91/2 percent. on this trip that Volcker informed the Treasury The President’s announcement of the overall and the CEA about his thinking. My impression package tightly linked the decline in the dollar to at the time was that the Treasury (Secretary Miller U.S. inflation. However, there was little recognition and Under Secretary Solomon) was broadly sup- at the time in Washington that the United States portive of Volcker’s plans. My impression was that had a serious underlying inflation problem. One the CEA (Chairman Schultze) was more skeptical of my least pleasant experiences at the Federal about the technique but not about the need to do Reserve was in July 1978, when I represented the something. Most were convinced that everything Federal Reserve on the U.S. delegation for the else had been tried and had failed; it was neces- OECD’s review of the U.S. economy. Lyle Gramley, sary to have done so in order to bring them around who had moved to the Council of Economic to accepting the need for fundamental monetary Advisers (CEA), argued that if the Federal policy action. Reserve raised interest rates another 25 basis Volcker also shared some of his thinking in points, it would plunge the U.S. economy into general terms with Bundesbank president Otmar recession.1 I said the Federal Reserve would act Emminger. Emminger relied heavily for advice on “appropriately.” my good friend and counterpart at the Bundesbank, The November 1, 1978, package boosted the Wolfgang Rieke. Consequently, during our walks dollar for a while. However, in June 1979 it began around Belgrade, Wolfgang and I had several to decline again, in particular in terms of the long conversations about the proposals and the Deutsche mark. Petroleum prices were also rising chances of their success. We thought we under- along with U.S. headline and core inflation. During stood how the new procedure would work, but we the summer of 1979, the principal response both were uncertain about how successful it would be. inside and outside the Federal Reserve was to Volcker left Belgrade early to return to 1 By the time Lyle Gramley came back to the Federal Reserve in 2 At the time, real GDP recorded a decline during the second quarter May 1980 as a governor, he was one of the strongest anti-inflation of 1979, but the data today show no decline until the second hawks. quarter of 1980. 354 MARCH/APRIL, PART 2 2005 FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS REVIEW Truman Washington to finalize plans for the October 6 comment, “I’m doing it all wrong.” I was sitting meeting of the FOMC. Henry Wallich and I flew a few feet away and was one of the few who heard back the afternoon of October 5 and immediately him and understood what he really meant. went into a conference call to cover recent econ- However, Arthur Burns was not the only per- omic and financial developments, getting them son who did not embrace the unilateral approach out of the way before the FOMC meeting the next to monetary policy that the Federal Reserve was day. It was noted that the Pope would be in about to unveil. The members of the FOMC only Washington at the same time, which might give gradually arrived at a common diagnosis of the the Reserve Bank presidents and their colleagues problem. They were concerned about inflation, some cover as they slipped into town. but they were also concerned about the real econ- By October 6, 1979, the FOMC had become omy. There was less than full agreement that a convinced that the United States had an inflation greater focus on the monetary aggregates was problem that could be addressed only at home appropriate in the context of ongoing changes in through monetary policy, and the U.S. adminis- the financial system.
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