Dr. Dr. Kasim Asker Hasan The Economic Belt of the Silk Road The Influence of Silk Road on Economic Development – China´s Statistical Data Analysis China as the epicenter of zhe next financial crisis. Kenneth Rogoff, former IMF economist, 219 Many countries want to sell something to the world, China wants to rule it. Autor Editorial La Espada Rota The Economic Belt of the Silk Road The Influence of Silk Road on Economic Development – China´s Statistical. Data Analysis ©Dr. Dr. Kasim Asker Hasan ©Editorial La Espada Rota Depósito Legal: DC2021000306 ISBN: Editorial La Espada Rota Arte Final: Carmen Beatriz Salazar Diseño de Portada: Amira Machado Caracas, marzo 2021 Thanks Mainly my wife Suad and my children, Thanks for the support supreme and patience for all these years. Table of Contents Summary 11 Introduction 17 Theoretical context 25 Chapter I The economic and political rivalry between China and the USA 25 Chapter II Chinas geopolitical factors, demography, geography historical synthesis and resources 28 2.1 Administrative Division 28 2.2 720 Million Poor 29 2.3 Trade agreement as a ceasefire 31 2.4 Homemade problems 33 2.5 Geography 34 2.6 Ethnics, religion and languages 37 2.7 US accuses China of ‘genocide’ of Uyghurs and minority groups in Xinjiang 39 2.7.1 China Uighurs: All you need to know on Muslim “crackdown” 43 2.8 General Introduction of Rivers and Lakes 45 2.9 Farming 47 2.10 Land and Mineral Resources 47 2.11 Energy 50 2.12 Industry 51 2.13 Economic policy and Commerce 52 2.13.1 Economic policy 52 2.13.2 Commerce 53 2.14 Financial policy 54 2.15 International relations 56 2.16 Armed forces 57 2.17 Main interventions 58 2.18 Synthesis of the history of China 61 2.19 Geostrategic theaters of China and the Seas of China 63 7 Chapter III History of the Silk Road and the New Silk Road 65 3.1 Old Silk Road 67 3.2 From China to Venice 67 3.3 Deserts 68 3.4 High mountains 68 3.5 Trample 68 3.6 Traveler 69 3.7 Monks 70 3.8 Ibn Batutta 70 3.9 Fathers of the Silk Road 71 3.10 The Great Wall of China 72 3.11 Sultanhani, Turkey 72 3.12 Dunhuang, China 73 3.13 Bukhara, Uzbekistan 73 3.14 Kashgar, Xinjiang Autonomous Region, China 74 3.15 Silk 74 3.16 Samarkand, Uzbekistan 74 3.17 Mosque, Xi’an, China 75 3.18 Pest 75 3.19 Stirrups, Mongolia 76 3.20 Paper 77 3.21 Compass 78 3.22 Xi’an, China 78 3.23 Guns and drugs 79 3.24 The New Silk Road 79 3.25 Iron Silk Road benefits from Corona 80 3.26 Solved and unsolved problems 81 3.27 Subsidized “Silk Road Advertising” 82 Chapter IV China’s geostrategic projection in the Caribbean Sea region Mahan’s thought did. XIX: seeing British experience and thinking of the US 84 4.1 Central America and the Caribbean on the geostrategic map of China 89 4.2 Mexico looks to China across the Pacific 89 4.3 China and Latin America in the future 90 8 Chapter V China’s Belt and Road initiative (BRI) in the Middle East 92 5.1 China is in the Gulf to compete with the United States 100 5.2 Chinas major roles in the Middle East 106 5.3 Regional impact 110 5.4 Iran is seen as a prime example of Chinas long-term geopolitical ambitions 113 5.5 Chahbahar port is an alternative to Gwadar base in Pakistan 115 5.6 Financial integration between Iran and China 116 5.7 The Discount on the Iranian oil Price 117 5.8 Chinese Land and Maritime Silk Initiative from an Iranian perspective 118 5.9 China and Israel 121 Chapter VI China’s investments in the telecommunications and energy sectors and China’s Currency Swap, Agreements 128 6.1 China’s Currency Swap Agreements 130 Chapter VII Trade dispute between USA and China 131 Chapter VIII Trade dispute between Russia and China (Table 3) 134 Chapter IX USA-Russia-China: Global Triangular Interdependencies 136 Chapter X Possible competing programs of other powers 140 Chapter XI Transport costs (total investment requirement: approx. USD 800 billion –1500 billion) 142 Chapter XII Polar Silk Road: China Unveils Huge Plans for Arctic Region 143 Chapter XIII Challenges and risks for the New Silk Road (NSStr) 148 9 Chapter XIV Debt relationship between China and Malaysia 149 Chapter XV Investments and types of investments 151 15.1 Types of investment 151 15.2 Motives for foreign direct investors are: 152 15.3 Characteristics of Developing Countries, which important for every Investment and Investor 152 Chapter XVI Theoretical Model 155 16.1 Introductory analysis of time series: 155 16.2 Panel or longitudinal data: 158 16.3 Multiple linear regression (MLR) 160 Review of literature 169 Conclusion 172 Practical Part 176 Appendix N° I Contrast of Experiences in the Debut of the Third Millennium 215 Appendix N° II Stumbling in China 219 Appendix N° III Western Europe: the weak entente 222 Appendix N° IV New Russia and the Ghost of Lenin 225 Appendix N° V Latin America Perennial Coloniality? 227 Abbreviations 232 Literature and Websites 234 10 Summary The growth of the Chinese economy has been financed since 2008 by increasing debt. The increasing debt burden threatens the stability of the Chinese economy. A financial crisis in Chi- na would have serious consequences for the global economy. The Chinese citizens distrust the state, especially after the restrictions on capital exports. China’s plan to stabilize Chinese financial markets and promo- te economic growth, but the two goals cannot be achieved at the same time. In view of the stagnating domestic demand, China is trying to export the economic model that has not worked so far (based on ever increasing debt). The instrument for exporting one’s own debts is the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Some reci- pient countries get into a dangerous over-indebtedness situation. In fact, many Silk Road countries such as Malaysia, the Maldives, Ethiopia and Sri Lanka have borrowed heavily from Chinese state banks in recent years. In some places there and elsewhere there is resistance to the Chinese project. China is becoming increasingly involved in Iran, In addition to the favorable economic conditions; a partnership would also have important military and security implications from a geopolitical perspective, thereby expanding its influence in the Middle East. That puts the Gulf States under pressure, especially Saudi Arabia. In order to prevent this dangerous over-indebtedness, the Eu- ropean countries, the Gulf States and the USA should react to Chi- na’s strategies and launch their own infrastructure initiative such as Japan, especially for Asian developing and emerging countries. 11 So give interest-free loans. In order to save these countries from over development Third generation finance, the Islamic banks and the IMF have to play a major role by providing generous interest-free credit. Whether it is ‘qualitative’ growth or growth without quality - if it decreases in China, it will affect the global economy. The Institute of German Economy calculated the following scenario: “If Chinese GDP grew by one percentage point less annually in real terms by 2028 than is currently assumed, global GDP growth would be 2.8 percentage points lower overall.” If China’s growth collapsed by as much as three percent, there would be eight per- cent less growth worldwide. And should the BRI - the “New Silk Road” - be successful, the Chinese state would benefit in the long term from the interest and capital payments of the borrowers. The initiative calls for more than $ 1,000 billion in Chinese investments in more than 125 countries. The research objectives of this work are: 1. To analyze the economic and legal framework for the imple- mentation of investments from China under the name of New Silk Road in the world in general and in particular in the Middle East. 2. Assisting policy makers and investors through the global over- sight of Chinese investments, the Belt and Road Initiative, and its disadvantages and advantages. 12 3. To determine achieved results in attracting FDI and identif- ying restrictions for the purpose of intensifying the inflow and outflow of investment. One of the assumptions of integration of many countries at Chinas The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is a fulfillment of the conditions of the Stabilization and Associa- tion Agreement, which implies the implementation of economic reforms with the aim of strengthening the economy, business en- vironment and economic policies, and the creation of a favorable climate for private foreign and domestic investment. The work is reflected in the critical analysis of the legal and institutional fra- mework of the Belt and Road Initiative, the evaluation of the re- sults achieved and recommendations to create attractiveness and risk of Chinese capital investments worldwide. 4. To show the degree of possible positive or negative impact of TOTAL_INVESTMENT IMPORT_GOODS_SERVICES, EXPORT_GOODS_SERVICES, FDI_INFLOWS, FDI_OUT- FLOWS, GROSS_DOMESTIC_SAVING and DOMESTIC_CRE- DIT_TO_PRIVATE (time series analysis) in China on GDP. 5. The increasing of GDP means Economic development. Also, the increasing of GDP is important component to improve of standard of living (well-being) and reduce unemployment, besi- de other important internal and external factors effecting and de- termining the economic growth of countries, such as democracy, Human rights, open trade, inflation, exchange rate instability on account of capital outflows and economic reform to make a ro- bust structural reformation in international capital inflows such as foreign institutional investment and foreign direct investment.