rdt ehd n rciegatRS592-01 yhmakolde h upr fteNtoa Science Mi- National for E-mail: the Centre -8615. of for ESRC support the Seattle the through in acknowledges Council Lynham meetings GEO-1211972. Research Council grant RES-589-28-0001. 2016 Social Research through grant and Economics European Foundation Practice Economic the con- Labour and Group, from the health Methods for Micro support and the crodata financial Applied Society 338187 into acknowledges Hawai‘i Grant insights the gratefully of Starting Paula useful and University de through some Finally, the meetings for at Society Pope comments. participants Arden Economic useful thank to Royal also some indebted We 2016 articulate especially to Porter,the pollution. are helping John We particulate for Pattantyus, Tofte of Andre vog. Kristine M¯anoa Eco- thank sequences and behind UH Hawai‘i we at science of addition, Tam the University In Elizabeth of the and expertise. Howell, of GIS Steven Balderston her Businger, Adele offering Steven acknowledge for We Organization Research assistance. nomic research expert provided Sweeney This arti 10.1111/ecoj.12 doi: thisarticle as differences to lead between the of this version cite and Version Record.Please copyediting, paginationbeen throughthe andproofreadingtypesetting, process,may which This article acceptedhas been for publication andundergone fullpeer review buthasnot ∗

Accepted† Article orsodn uhr drs:22 al a;53Sudr al oouu I982 ee 88 956 (808) Tele: 96822. HI Honolulu, Hall; Saunders 533 Way; Maile 2424 Address: Author. Corresponding Jonathan and Jang Chaning data. the for Corporation Information Health Hawai‘i of Miyamura Jill thank We o :UigVlai rpin oEtmt h Health the Estimate to Eruptions Volcanic Using Vog: ewrs olto,Hat,Vlao atclts SO Particulates, Volcano, Health, Q53 Pollution, outcomes, Q51, Keywords: pulmonary I12, H51, for par- visits Code: in JEL ER increase on deviation expenditures standard young. in one very A increase the emergency 23-36% among costs. local mostly a of on to pollutants measure of leads uncor- precise individual impact are ticulates a the which of K¯ılauea and estimate volcano, from impact admissions high to emissions sources, The room the use pollution outcomes. we of other study, health with estimation this on related In the exposure health. short-term complicates on of pollutants pollutants effect industrial no find of well-established are studies correlation pollution of particulate number to a exposure but long-term of consequences negative The cle is prote ioh .Halliday J. Timothy halliday@hawaii.edu cted by copyright. All rights reserved. 609

ot fParticulates of Costs . † ac 0 2018 10, March onLynham John Abstract 2 ∗ ue ePaula de Aureo ´ fteeet fpluino elhcr tlzto hudb iwda en nlsv fthis of inclusive being as viewed estimates our be and should variable utilization omitted care this health for of on control much pollution to bedevilled of unable has are effects and We the thornier of variation is the area. behaviour, this of avoidance much in latter, research for The control the will seasonality congestion. in traffic pattern flexible in a pollution. for volcanic with adjusting correlated addition, systematically is In traffic former the are that analysis believe to our reason impact compelling no could that variables ( omitted behaviour avoidance main and two congestion The activities. human to K¯ılauea estimator. near levels (IV) emissions variables in instrumental on variations information an exploits with construct conjunction method to in second chain The island sea- the (OLS). in and Squares patterns regional Least wind with Ordinary model via parsimonious effects and a admissions fixed estimates (ER) method sonal room first emergency The and models. quality linear air estimate on data frequency high use of Both matter K¯ılauea. a in conditions pristine near to skies polluted dark, the in hours. from conditions change quality on air can Based emitting), Hawai‘i States. is of volcano United the state the not in or pollution cities. whether air (and many of conditions in weather sources pollution local exogenous smog truly to the akin of air, one small represents the essentially Vog in is suspended Vog aerosols) pollution. (sulfate smog) matter (volcanic particulate “vog” as known is what K¯ılauea produce from pollution standards. where quality context air a ambient (EPA) in Agency costs Protection and Environmental below outcomes well health effect are public the levels measure various precisely on more relatively matter to to particulate us leads allows of hand, variation other This the pollutants. on in source, variation quantifiable pollution independent of Our attribution pollutants. different the several complicating to possibly effects pollutants, induce generally various pollution among anthropogenic of correlation types high other and Industrial charges. and admissions tal This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article isprotected rights by All copyright. reserved. Accepted Article h L siao a ejsie ntegonsta h aito narqaiyi unrelated is quality air in variation the that grounds the on justified be can estimator OLS The by produced pollution the of impact health the estimate to approaches main two adopt We Emissions Hawai‘i. of island the form that volcanoes five the of active most the K¯ılauea is hospi- on pollution particulate of effect the document to emissions volcanic use we paper, this In e.g. epeaodn h udoso vgy as.W see We days). “voggy” on outdoors the avoiding people , orlto ewe umnr imnsadvgi uoecue yteeuto fLk ocn nIceland. in volcano Laki of eruption the by caused may estimators Europe usual in vog the and that ailments suggest pulmonary both between (2011) error. correlation al. measurement et to Goldman due and bias attenuation (2012) severe al. from et suffer Sheppard health. on pollution eruptions. modern on focused the have from come winds the when and high. are high O‘ahu are on islands. levels levels Hawaiian emissions particulate the south, volcanic from when away southwest, hand, the other to the blown On is satellite volcano a the is plume from 3 the coming Figure conditions: emissions wind sea. of northeast to island typical very out during the concentrations is blown of K¯ılauea dioxide are northwest there sulphur from the showing northeast emissions image to the the is from of 2 all come Figure because in winds Hawai‘i, shown when in of as that seen which is be O‘ahu, idea on can pollution which basic particulate Hawai‘i The little of 1. island Figure the of in part map southeast the the population on high with to located island K¯ılauea different Airport is (a International O‘ahu density). of Honolulu shore south at the collected on levels data particulate for direction instrument K¯ılauea is wind (where with island Hawai‘i conjunction of in south located) the from estimator. measurements (IV) variables emissions instrumental employs an strategy employ Our also we congestion, traffic or pollution industrial particulate of literature. type extant specific the a of of of much regions cost than other health credible more the in is of than particulate that estimate pollutants pollution of an industrial provide source we other a Consequently, many have to we US. literature). related that the the less is of much design much is our in that of (as bounds pollution utilization feature lower care unique as medical a estimates importantly, emergency OLS on but our Finally, vog view of reasonably impact can true one the such, of measurement As between may misalignment locations. measurement and exposure exposure instruments and measurement pollution in in imprecision Error through pollution downwards. our arise in estimates error our measurement of bias degree should large indicativevariables a be addition, may In which behaviour). fractures avoidance on limited pollution of of effect no see nevertheless (we margin adjustment This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article isprotected rights by All copyright. reserved.

Accepted2 1 Article itei nw bu h elhipcso ocnceisos lhuhafwrcn studies recent few a although emissions, volcanic of impacts health the about known is Little from biases variables omitted lingering any as well as bias error measurement the address To ntrso itrcleutos uadadGatn(01 s elhrcrsfo 73t oueta document to 1783 from records health use (2001) Grattan and Durand eruptions, air historical of of effect the terms underestimate In to tend designs OLS simple how explain (1997) Tager K¨unzli and example, For 2 nasuyo iaeiailn nJpn siaie al. et Ishigami Japan, in island Miyakejima of study a In 1 This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article isprotected rights by All copyright. reserved. Accepted Article iue1 oorpia a fteIln fHawai‘i of Island the of Map Topographical 1: Figure iue2 a fteHwia Islands Hawaiian the of Map 2: Figure ocdeprtr oue(E1.Sil trmisucerwehricesdvlai emissions volcanic increased whether unclear remains it Still, and cough (FEV1). including volume et outcomes Tam expiratory respiratory recently, and forced Most exposure vog symptoms. between ocular association who observable an patients have show that (2016) do al. vog report to (2011) due Lagunzad vog irritation and to eye Camara of exposure study, complain higher non-comparative a the In with associated 2008. were since effects health of the and magnitudes of health, stronger Half their relatively affected vog. negatively to had eruption exposure K¯ılauea’s intensified blood with that perceived and correlations participants statistical pressure strong (blood document measurements to in-person uses outpatient saturation) (2013) and and oxygen Longo ailments vog (2010). between self-reported al. et correlation of Longo strong combination by A found a was headaches and (2009)). problems pulmonary Longo for (2008); visits al. unaffected et areas (Longo in residents vog to by relative problems nasal residents and nearby eye, emissions, a pulmonary, in increased of escalation self-reported 2008 focus the the to Prior been has studies. K¯ılauea epidemiological itself recent of number breathlessness). and throat, sore (cough, (SO effects dioxide sulphur pulmonary between correlation strong a found (2008) This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article isprotected rights by All copyright. reserved. Accepted Article iue3 aelt mg fSlhrDoieMass Dioxide Sulphur of Image Satellite 3: Figure ore AAErhObservatory Earth NASA Source: 2 ocnrtosadself-reported and concentrations ) aito npluinfo h ocn vrtm ihnargo,orrsac einde oetoog o of job thorough more a does design exploit research we our the Because region, particular, a In within factors. time confounding over 9). confounds. unobserved volcano these eliminate p. the eliminating not from (2013, may pollution Longo studies in causality” variation previous not of associations, nature measured cross-sectional and misclassification, bias, correlation selection significant a found area same PM the average moving in used 5-day study between study follow-up This A (1991). admissions. III PM Pope hospital between children monthly link age pre-school causal a among a of particularly demonstrate admissions, closure to hospital intermittent Valley the Utah exploited in study hospital influential mill respiratory and steel on early particulates An of effects mortality. the and investigate admissions own our with align closely most that PM as inversions and roads thermal CO toll use of of (2016) effect introduction the al. the measure et to use Arceo-Gomez (2011) variation. Walker pollution and Knittel quasi-exogenous Currie California; of and in sources traffic; traffic road airport use use use (2011) (2016) (2016) Neidell Walker al. and and et Schlenker Moretti Angeles; children. Los on in pollution traffic of due impact boat location the in study pollution changes to air forced transfers between uses military link (2010) to a Lleras-Muney for hospitalizations. test asthma Neidell to children’s mortality. California and infant quasi- within on variation a impact pollution as an seasonal for recession test uses 1981-82 to (2004) the matter particulate use in (2003) variation of Greenstone particulate source between and random link Chay a for mortality. test al. to et adult 1970s Chay the and in matter Act evidence. Air correlative Clean purely the by on induced based variation use studies (2003) epidemiological many in eliminate present to order biases an in the variation been pollution of has of there sources quasi-random economics, or Within “natural” find to health. attempt human and pollutants of sources industrial between to difficult K¯ılauea. it on make studies errors epidemiological self-reporting previous and state) from the evidence of causal to rest infer close the live to to different choose quite who are volunteered individuals volcano respondents of the characteristics example, socio-economic (for the bias and surveys selection answer particular, to In problems. health causing are This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article isprotected rights by All copyright. reserved.

Accepted3 Article hr sas orsodn eia ieaueo h elheet fpluin h studies The pollution. of effects health the on literature medical corresponding a also is There relationship causal a estimate to attempts that literature broader much a course, of is, There h edn coa nti ieauentsta e cosscinleieilgcdsg a ucpil to susceptible was design epidemiologic “cross-sectional her that notes literature this in scholar leading The 10 10 olto n o-cietlmraiyPp I ta.(1992). al. et III Pope mortality non-accidental and pollution nifn otlt nMexico. in mortality infant on 10 3 olto n respiratory and pollution iapasoc hycnrlfrohrcreae oltns(.73:“h ffc fP1 a itecagdby changed little related was traffic PM10 other for of control effect by (NO2) “The eliminated or 773): (CO) reduced (p. substantially was pollutants but pollutants”. correlated SO2, or other ozone for for control control they day once given disappears a on matter particulate in increase e.g. deviation standard one a that find we particular, In another. from pollutant one of correlated, effects strongly the are disentangle pollutants to other important difficult and on it particulates matter making studies, particulate other of are most effect we In pure such, the As outcomes. of health estimates pollutant. clean have industrial we other that paper no this confident and in quite results matter the particulate Finally, from entirely (2006). almost characteristics Dockery and stem and III composition Pope chemical health the few human how affect region; our of particulates aerosols, a of question sulfate within unresolved of the quality entirely on almost air light composed with is shed lock-step vog results that in given basis Fifth, daily this. in a do confound variables on potential omitted vary any to region, have a because within would Moreover, pollution study in our Hawai‘i. variation of (daily) state frequency examine the high we in on and hospitals rely confounds of we registry cross-sectional a eliminate Our from can surveys). outcomes that out health fill panel objective to regional volunteer a to use likely less to are is ill approach extremely the apt example, are variables (for omitted confounds cross-sectional be which on to in relies data vog self-reported of largely consequences of health the cross-section the single Fourth of on a work many epidemiological work. in the previous variation in of than much the greater earlier), much Third, discussed is (as basis day-to-day a measures. on particularly, cost data and, our construct in literature measures to other pollution imputations the on of rely much not than do hospitalization we of costs human the of on result data the accurate are that pollution of sources ( exploit activity literature economics the in studies all the of (2009) al. et III with Pope correlations and strong observe (2002) and US. al. the particulates et in to mortality III exposure Pope long-term of (1995), effects al. the et investigate Pope (1993), al. et Dockery This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article isprotected rights by All copyright. reserved.

Accepted5 4 Article efidsrn ffcso atclt olto nE disosfrploayrltdreasons. pulmonary-related for admissions ER on pollution particulate of effects strong find We majority vast the First, follows. as are literature existing the to study this of contributions The o xml,L etee l 20)fidta h ffc fpriuaepluino adoaclrdisease cardiovascular on pollution particulate of effect the that find (2002) al. storms et dust Tertre of effects Le health the example, investigates For that science, environmental in predominantly literature, a is There hne l 20)adPrze l (2012). al. et Perez and (2008) al. et Chan e.g. rmcr,arlns atre,o trigfie ocerforest). clear to fires starting or factories, airplanes, cars, from , 5 4 eod euemore use we Second, ‘h hr h attm h P’ orsadr o abnmnxd a xeddwso h 5hJanuary 15th the the by on was volcano details: exceeded the was more of monoxide for summit carbon website on for the K¯ılauea Honolulu volcano standard at in USGS hour is or hvo/hvo_gas.html the 1 monoxide EPA’s islands See carbon the Maui of time measurement 1973. or last accurate Hawai‘i the nearest on The where (USGS). O‘ahu measured Survey not Geological is States United monoxide summit, Carbon the Currently, inside concern. records. there emissions opened 2008, previous vent all 12, new breaking March threefold, a K¯ılauea: Since increased from have emissions volcano. emissions average the in and of increase side dramatic the a on been Zone” has Rift “East the in cone) pollution (volcanic main the and pollutant harmful another volcano. the SO also Moreover, by is caused problem pollutant. which industrial matter common a particulate also into is and turns health human to threat emissions). serious of a 1% poses totalling (CO); monoxide (hydrogen, carbon gases and trace fluoride, minor hydrogen other chloride, sulphur with hydrogen along and tourist emissions), dioxide, total a of carbon 99% as vapour, comprise gases water mainly (these severe emits dioxide serve K¯ılauea but primarily intermittent flows been quality. lava has air activity the human number in on impacts, deteriorations small volcano minor the a of these and impact 1990 primary than The in Other attraction. residents of some 2014. island displaced late the flows in on Lava again life state. disrupts the occasionally across and and 1983 Hawai‘i in began period eruption K¯ılauea’s current Data and Background 1 summarize we conclude. that, After we Finally, be- methods. results. our relationship describe our the then discuss We we pollution. that, and Following emissions data. volcanic tween our describe and volcano the on background fracture-related or young. placebo. cardiovascular-related our very on is the pollution latter among the particulate effects which of strong of find effects admissions, We estimates any IV find Our 36%. not and estimates. do 23 OLS We between our effect, use larger we much when a charges imply ER additional 2% with associated is This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article isprotected rights by All copyright. reserved.

Accepted6 Article hr r urnl w ansucso i olto nKıae:tesmi tefadahole a and itself summit K¯ılauea: the on pollution air of sources main two currently are There further some give we section, next the In follows. as organized is paper this of balance The lhuhcro ooiei mte rmtevlao ti nsc ml uniista ti o as for cause a not is it that quantities small such in is it volcano, the from emitted is monoxide carbon Although https://volcanoes.usgs.gov/observatories/ 6 SO 2 2 ain ae nadto,w nwteaeadgne fteptet eas aeinformation have also We patient. for the charged of amount gender total and data age the These the as know well we 2012. as addition, 31, admission In December of to cause care. 2000 patient and 1, date unaffected January the be period should on the the they information span than as include data placebo, other The a bones as of serve pollution. to dislocations air designed by and are fractures Fractures for back. or admissions femur, all pelvis, as well as groups, related stations monitoring state. thirteen from the quality in air on (DOH) obtained Health we of Department Second, Hawai‘i the (HHIC). from data Corporation Information Health Hawai‘i the from Hawai‘i in charges Hawai‘i. produce of to state potential the in the anywhere has pollution volcano the summary, SO of In sulfate levels in high plants. high also power are coal-fired that sources as particulate such other to aerosols pertinent more be no islands), may study and Hawaiian this compounds) of other results sulfate the other on SO and of and levels acid high Island (sulphuric contains Hawai‘i longer matter of particulate small side essentially west is the vog on volcano coast the from Kona away farther the Thus, (along pollution). (particulate conditions hazy producing processes, of mostly consists vog vents, K¯ılauea’s active Near SO volcano. the to proximity on depends typically levels to quality air EPA. pristine the SO by near of set from amount guidelines ranging actual exceed areas, far the that surrounding in and differences summit daily vast the near be present can there conditions, stationary wind prevailing largest the and surprisingly, not K¯ılauea is, SO (2001)). of (Gibson source SO source of single tons a 0.25 from is day pollution industrial per for standard safety Agency’s SO of Protection tons Environmental 1,500 the and 500 between basis daily a on fluctuate emissions This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article isprotected rights by All copyright. reserved. Accepted Article 2 h Rdt nld disosifrainfralcrivsua n umnr diagnosis- pulmonary and cardiovascular all for information admissions include data ER The and admissions ER on data obtained we First, sources. primary two from data employ We composition the and aerosols, and gases different of composed is vog, or pollution, Volcanic a.Oe ie SO time, Over gas. 2 olto nteUie ttso mrc.Dpnigo ocncatvt,rainfall, activity, volcanic on Depending America. of States United the in pollution 2 olto ertevlaoadhg eeso atclrseiso particulate of species particular a of levels high and volcano the near pollution 2 a xdzst uft atce hog aiu hmcladatmospheric and chemical various through particles sulfate to oxidizes gas 2 eas hsseiso atcltsi ihi upui cd the acid, sulphuric in high is particulates of species this Because . 2 e a.A eeec point, reference a As day. per 2 2 vnatrcrepnigwt h O,i ssilntcert shwter2-oraeae eecomputed. were averages 24-hour their how us to clear not still micrometres. is (10) it 2.5 DOH, of the diameter with aerodynamic corresponding an after at even 50% computed of we ZIP efficiency then transmission station’s a stations, the with monitoring which sampler numerous selective in contained community community SES SES an the If determined we resided. Next, ZIP code which in determine resided. to station station monitoring the the code of latitude and longitude exact the computed we of measurements day. The that for means analysis. regression our for appropriate possible when as averages sample SO a took of and large together as have calculations) could own we our our so For from taken two. and ( the available, DOH particulates averaged was the of we by series were, measure time they 24-hour two When the the spliced or day. we hour results, same empirical the one on the available either both time, were 24 rarely the over but of taken Most averages arithmetic were which measures. averages, hourly DOH. 24-hour the own by our computed computed average we 24-hour a measures, and hourly ( an meter available: cubic were per sures micrograms in measured are particulates (PM ameter in merged we once exposure this of did measure We precise more admitted. a data. was us pollution she give the or would he it which that to the believed ER to we the corresponds of because information location location the the that not note and to ( residence important cause patient’s is given ER it a again, total for Once and and admissions location, fractures). given of or a number in total day, the given a obtain on to charges community SES and admission, of appendix. cause the in A1 Figure in communities Kaua‘i SES and L¯ana‘i, the Moloka‘i Maui, show We Hawai‘i, location O‘ahu, of of codes. residence islands ZIP the the several reports of on collection HHIC a particular, is In which community,” “SES an residence. as of location defined broadly a on This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article isprotected rights by All copyright. reserved.

Accepted8 7 Article 2 omretearqaiydt noteE disosdt,w sdtefloigpoes First, process. following the used we data, admissions ER the into data quality air the merge To di- in micrometres 10 and 2.5 particulates pollutants: following the of measurements use We day, by data the collapsed we analysis, regression for suitable format a in data the put To h O i o ipycmuea rtmtcaeaeo orymaueet sw i.Unfortunately, did. we as measurements hourly of average arithmetic an compute simply not did DOH The PM precise, more be To eetkno nhul ai;t opt umr esrsfragvndy ecomputed we day, given a for measures summary compute to basis; hourly an on taken were 2 . 5 n PM and 10 2 n SO and ) . 5 (PM 10 stems e ui ee fprilspsigtruhteilto size a of inlet the through passing particles of meter cubic per mass the is ) 2 . 7 l esrmnsfrSO for measurements All µ g/m 2 e.g. r nprsprblin(p) and (ppb), billion per parts in are 3 i.e. .Frpriuae,tomea- two particulates, For ). h 4hu vrgsprovided averages hour 24 the umnr,cardiovascular, pulmonary, , 8 sn h hourly the Using ure h ieo h vrg olpato h anad,adpealn id lwiseisosdrcl offshore. directly emissions its SO blow winds on prevailing effect and no mainland), have the to on plant appears coal plant average The the of size the quarter SO for direction. wind the on depending islands, smog-like Hawai‘ian this the and across vog, farther form carried to be particulates can volcanic substance other with mixes This SO pollution. particulate distance. with dissipate first then the in and NAAQS volcano of violations are there regions. Kona; these SO in of that extent, two lesser see a we to 6, and, Figure Hawai‘i PM South in poor Hawai‘i, However, for have NAAQS to of Hawai‘i. appears violations of any generally island see which the not Hawai‘i, do of We island the quality. on air all are Hawai‘i spike South and noticeable Kona, The Hawai‘i. South and PM in Maui, West/Central Kona, Hawai‘i, Hilo/North Ewa, PM at Looking averages SO 24-hour for use We pollutant. 35 that the of for to (NAAQS) corresponding Standards line horizontal Quality a Air include Ambient we National pollutant, each For community. SES by consider 1. Table in pollutants the PM for for statistics summary information comprehensive report most the have we far, By data used we total, In stations. monitoring no communities. We had SES that nine communities the communities. from in SES SES A1 from the Table data and use stations community. not monitoring SES did given the a between in mapping day the given displays a appendix on stations monitoring the all for means This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article isprotected rights by All copyright. reserved. 11 10

Accepted9 Article o u ntuetlvralsrsls eepo aao iddrcincletdb h Na- the by collected direction wind on data employ we results, variables instrumental our For regions. particular in quality air poor of periods indicate 6 through 4 Figures whole, the On we that pollutants the of each for series time the of graphs present we 6, through 4 Figures In communities. SES nine all for pollutants for series time complete have not do we Unfortunately, h tt fHwiisol olfie oe ln slctdi h EaSS hsi ml ln ruhya (roughly plant small a is This SES. ’Ewa the in located is plant power coal-fired tails. the only Hawai‘i’s from 1% of state bottom and The top the trimmed we see data, particulates, on ER information and For pollution the both For 2 µg/m 2 2 saoehu vrg eo 5ppb. 75 below average hour one a is . . 5 10 n20 nWs/eta aiwscue yalrebuhfie ioNrhHawai‘i, Hilo/North fire. brush large a by caused was Maui West/Central in 2007 in o PM for 3 2 . 5 nFgr ,w e iltoso AQ nAe/er iy eta Honolulu, Central City, Aiea/Pearl in NAAQS of violations see we 4, Figure in 11 2 . 5 n 150 and hs rnsmk es nta SO that in sense make trends These µg/m http://www.epa.gov/air/criteria.html 2 eesi ’Ewa. in levels o PM for 3 2 10 ecswt te hmcl nteart produce to air the in chemicals other with reacts eue h le 4hu vrg f10ppb 140 of average 24-hour older the used We . 9 2 2 msin hudb ihs erthe near highest be should emissions 2 . 10 5 eesaevr ihi Hilo/North in high very are levels lhuhti sntrcre on recorded not is this although , n,t esretn,SO extent, lesser a to and, oeta h urn NAAQS current the that Note . 2 We . This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article isprotected rights by All copyright. reserved. Accepted Article iue4 PM 4: Figure iue5 PM 5: Figure 2 10 . 5 ySSCommunity SES by ySSCommunity SES by This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article isprotected rights by All copyright. reserved. Accepted Article iue6 SO 6: Figure 2 ySSCommunity SES by ee40 disosfrcrivsua esn,50 disosfrploayraos n 1.98 and reasons, pulmonary there day, for SES average admissions an an 5.00 on is reasons, that, observation cardiovascular see for An we admissions consider, 4.01 we were communities 1. Table SES the in all information For quality community/day. air have we which for Communities 3). Figure in south depicted directly h (as offshore 24 winds sitting to northeast is 10 recent plume plume to the vog due if the O‘ahu shorter give of be would could m/s time 10 travel and This 4 Honolulu Honolulu.” between to reach speed vents to wind the typical from A distance plume km. straight-line 350 the “The about of (2017): is location al. the et Tofte and time Travel to direction, According sea. exact to strength, offshore. out wind not on O‘ahu, happens, depends this of O‘ahu When island K¯ılauea 180 to the from and to south. 120 blown the between K¯ılauea are from data from O‘ahu of emissions to volcanic cluster come the a do see winds do the 92.3 we occasionally is However, that direction wind reflects As mean which degrees. the 70 fact, is 7. In median Figure in the northeast. histogram and the the degrees from in come data primarily winds these the summarize corresponding We seen, zero be with can north. ten) due nearest from the coming to winds (rounded the degrees to in reported International are Honolulu data at These station weather Airport. their from Association Atmospheric and Oceanic tional This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article isprotected rights by All copyright. reserved. Accepted Article ecnld hsscinb eotn umr ttsisfo h HCdt o l h SES the all for data HHIC the from statistics summary reporting by section this conclude We iue7 itga o idDrcinData Direction Wind for Histogram 7: Figure esn.Frt cuaepplto ubr r o vial ewe essyas nparticular, In years. census between available have not we are numbers population accurate First, reasons. outcomes. health on pollution of effects dynamic term for for The adjust which residual. dummies parameter, the year is The term and patterns. final month, weather day, or are traffic terms to due three confounds next possible The region. given a in day where period time which pollution. let particulate in that for approach notation instrument IV the to adopt an direction we is wind Throughout, second and The emissions volcanic on OLS. data via leverage while seasonality we measures of pollution pattern our The onto flexible outcomes a clinical utilization. for of ER controlling regression on linear a emissions estimate volcanic simply of to impact is first the estimate to approaches two employ We Methods 2 payer. the other of factors power reflects monopsony charged) the as to such opposed service (as the paid actual of the amount cost of the the measure Often, than better a service. is there charged health amount limitation, the the data if of well a cost as as this which, this to received, aspects view positive it may some what some be While may not Finally, HHIC. charged, from provider available the not $4204.16. what is of to unfortunately, total correspond a admissions amounts cardiovascular-related cost these for admissions that charges pulmonary-related note Total whereas day, per region. $5159.18 given are a in fractures for admissions This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article isprotected rights by All copyright. reserved. Accepted Article d euetecut fttlamsin n o ae stedpnetvral o several for variable dependent the as rates not and admissions total of counts the use We model: empirical parsimonious following the consider we First, eoetedyo h week, the of day the denote outcome daily t . aata pnteyas20 o21 n,s ti oehtftl xrieto exercise futile somewhat a is it so and, 2012 to 2000 years the span that data tr sete Ramsin rcagsand charges or admissions ER either is outcome tr m = eoemnho h er and year, the of month denote β β q q ( ( L L t salgplnma forder of polynomial lag a is ) ) stetm eidand period time the is p tr + α d + α m p + tr samaueo i ult o given a for quality air of measure a is α y + α r y r stergo.I diin we addition, In region. the is + eoeya orsodn to corresponding year denote α ε q r tr hc ewl s otest to use will we which , sargo um.The dummy. region a is , (1) vr a n ilotnwi o ek eoetkn e esrmn.As,tedvc h SSue to uses USGS the device the Also, with winds measurement. (steady exist new conditions a weather taking certain when before emissions works measure weeks only to for not spectrometer) chooses mini-UV wait USGS IV (a SO often the thus, emissions elevated lower, will measure are endogenously and of emissions and is intermittent, When periods emissions very day daily). During volcanic are every (often of emissions frequently Survey. sampling more volcanic Geological Furthermore, rates of US emission measurements substantially. the the size by sample example, determined For the lower would admission estimates regressions. on impact IV its our from in stem will action the of entirety the movements, log a that have is will there we blows, emissions. wind the the intercepting direction be which should matter that SO no station of since weather measurement volcano, actual the the to on proximity impact close negligible to a within have located should is direction station wind Puna Thus, SO and of stations. west, measure the our station day, to View each located On Ocean is Volcano, east. station the the Pahala of southwest, northeast the the the to surround to located essentially located is that is Hawaii station South View in Mountain stations volcano. monitoring four are There DOH. Hawai‘i SO of proxy Our SO O‘ahu. on pollution particulate for strument omitted from biases lingering possible any measurements and this pollution correct our will in of variables. estimates error estimation IV Our measurement OLS of hand, 1). degree other footnote large the (see On a to due see). downwards will biased reader be the as not does approach IV which basis day-to-day a on implausible. problematic populations is be think regional could we impacting levels seriously to were ER opposed emissions as and volcanic rates pollution use if between to is in failure relationship that are, way the we only in effects, the variation Hence, fixed series regional admissions. of time presence on the relying to exclusively due changes effect, importantly, population most for account and effects Finally region- fixed employ year time. Third, also over we checks. addition, robustness In some effects in fixed population. trends regional the specific Second, in differences days. cross-sectional these of for each account for will denominator sensible a construct to attempt This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article isprotected rights by All copyright. reserved.

Accepted13 12 Article 2 et o u ntuetlvralsrgeso,w s SO use we regression, variables instrumental our for Next, (our data available the all utilizes it that advantage the has (1) equation of estimation OLS hr sas aafo h SGooia uvybtteedt r eyicmlt ow ontuethem use not do we so incomplete very are data these but Survey Geological US the from data also is There let formally, more this see To eesfo h ot aa‘ oioigsain icse ntepeiu eto rmthe from section previous the in discussed stations monitoring Hawai‘i South the from levels OP P A t t log = 12 A A t − t eoeamsin nday on admissions denote log OP P t nteasneo n ffcso olto ndyt-a population day-to-day on pollution of effects any of absence the In . 2 stemxmmSO maximum the is t and 13 OP P 2 2 2 2 t ee eodda n n fthese of one any at recorded level msin rmKıae sa in- an K¯ılauea as from emissions msin,teUG re omeasure to tries USGS the emissions, eoetepplto nday on population the denote msin stemaueetof measurement the is emissions counts . β q ( L t Then . will ) 2 itet orain). no to little estimate then explanatory we the stage, weaken second greatly the would In these instruments. of the are inclusion of power that and emissions utilization volcanic ER in with patterns correlated seasonal also systematic no are there since controls and seasonality degrees), 90 degrees: and 360 10 and between 10 directions ( between northeast values the on from take coming measurements are Airport International Honolulu at winds t where this. doing SO of these higher because way this had clean compromised have have may a may estimations regions with the in us Hawai‘i or provides Maui O‘ahu on regions on of Inclusion pollution particulate for instrument other an by as contaminated being without SO Using pollution particulate pollutants. of consequences health of the island estimate the towards the vog occasion, the on blows However, this and vog. south little the very is from O‘ahu. there come winds and emissions trade volcanic direction with the reverse days blow winds northeast on the so, from and winds sea trade to time out the of most unreported that in fact that, the exploit say to important also SO is of SO effects It direct no vog. found course, we of results, than, other O‘ahu on pollution This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article isprotected rights by All copyright. reserved. ,

AcceptedSO Article 2 codnl,orI prahwrsa olw.Tefis tg is stage first The follows. as works approach IV our Accordingly, the is work this of aims the of one since O‘ahu of island the to estimations IV the restrict We SO that argue would We eesfo ot aa‘ sa Vde o ilt n xlso etitos nadto,we addition, In restrictions. exclusion any violate not does IV an as Hawai‘i South from levels 2 p t tr steSO the is stepriuaelvl(ihrPM (either level particulate the is 2 ee ttime at level 2 olto rmteiln fHwii(ncnucinwt iddirection) wind with conjunction (in Hawai‘i of island the from pollution p tr = 2 γ eesi ot aa‘ r neae oms asso particulate of causes most to unrelated are Hawai‘i South in levels r + 2 t ocnrtosdet hi rxmt otevlai eruptions. volcanic the to proximity their to due concentrations nSuhHawai‘i, South in γ outcome 1 SO 2 2 t + nploayotoe n,s,i per si using if as appears it so, and, outcomes pulmonary on tr γ γ 10 = 2 r NE rPM or sargoa xdeet ed o nld any include not do We effect. fixed regional a is β p c t tr + NE + γ 2 α . 3 5 SO t r nayo h ein nOaua time at O‘ahu on regions the of any in ) sadmyvral niaigta the that indicating variable dummy a is + 2 ε t tr NE × NE t sadmyvral o wind for variable dummy a is t + e tr i.e. h iddirection wind the (3) (2) n o he ieetpluat.W hnto h te eiul rmteemdl n siae AR(20) SO SO For estimated of Newey-West effect the and for little lags. models lags was ten ten these there used to we that from up estimations, showed coming residuals significant work the were For preliminary fitted since autocorrelations the effects) errors lags. the took ten significant standard that than find then more found might for We we we autocorrelations particulates, significant might which For for throat pollutants. outcomes sore different only models. pre-existing three the a were for revealed direction: and analysis opposite preliminary air. (which the the outcomes in in vog work is that there when responses salient behavioural more be become could the there In that days. ten to //ltgov.hawaii.gov/emergency-information/important-information-about-vog/ well. up as for errors residuals standard the alternative in report correlation also serial we more and appendix, likely day given most a is on lags islands the ten Hawaiian although that indicating errors, similar, standard Newey-West very adequate. were the than lag for one lags only ten with used estimation errors We consistent standard for used matrix. be covariance However, must the errors of standard Newey-West all. present, at is asymptotics correlation cross-sectional serial on data rely our not in does days large- more it many since have pollution we Arellano in large- that to the correlation is reader addition, approach the In this refer for we regions. reason estimator, than an main such The of discussion p.19. a For (2003), regions. of number fixed adaptation. for control fully to were one if admissions ER on Neidell and estimated to Moretti the (2009); likely Neidell dampen (2009); more would (2011). Neidell likely were and most Zivin people outcomes this health example, poor, on for was pollution quality of If, effects air the when place. days taken on have indoors stay may that adaptation of sort any O‘ahu. from data utilization ER only using This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article isprotected rights by All copyright. reserved.

Accepted15 14 Article ocmuetesadr ros ewl eyo naypoi itiuinfrlarge for distribution asymptotic an on rely will we errors, standard the compute To include estimates IV and OLS our that is which results, our to caveat important an is There ocos h ubro asfrteNwyWs tnaderr,w siae u oesfrpulmonary for models our estimated we errors, standard Newey-West the for lags conditions: of number vog the heavy choose during To indoors stay to citizens encourages Hawai‘i of State the example, For T 14 smttc eur nivsiaino h iesre rpriso h eiul n fany if and residual, the of properties series time the of investigation an require asymptotics nti es,oretmtscudb iwda oe onso h ffcso pollution of effects the on bounds lower as viewed be could estimates our sense, this In 15 hs tnaderr lo o rirr orltosi eiul costhe across residuals in correlations arbitrary for allow errors standard These T xdeet siao losfrabtaycross-sectional arbitrary for allows estimator effects fixed 2 o n fteoutcomes. the of any for tsol lob noted be also should It . 2 efound we , T u a but http: eid 0821,i oun2 okn teisosfo h R ntenx w oun fthe of columns two next the in ERZ the from emissions at Looking 2. column in 2008-2010, period, PM and PM and the estimate increased we summit the 2008, 2008. from 12, during Emissions March summit on the starting 2008-2010. and threefold in 2000-2007 opened periods include vent the only for second we separately a regressions, model because these on Finally, for locations So, both ERZ. at measurement the a year. and take the to staffing of possible to day always Due every The not is spectrometres. it vehicle-based locations. constraints, the using no logistical of have staff other miles days one USGS many 11.5 only by that from about taken basis, measurement are are daily a measurements locations have a on others two taken many The not that were and measurements measurements, these 2010. that of Note December to apart. ‘ 2000 Pu‘u of and January summit from the (ERZ), at crater the of edge the SO on measurements daily employ We (USGS). is emissions volcanic of measure Our section. next the in report we that estimation IV the clear of a establish stage Hawai‘i first SO south and to emissions time. sample volcanic over the the restrict state between we the connection this which in in in pollution estimations results the affect the of emissions addition, some volcanic In Finally, how paper. into this insights SO in some that consider provide we establish section that to pollution this particulate do the We of source measures. quality SO air between our connection on a establish we section, this Pollution In and Emissions Volcanic 3 This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article isprotected rights by All copyright. reserved. Accepted Article al ipasterltosi ewe ocnceisosadpriuaepluin(PM pollution particulate and emissions volcanic between relationship the displays 2 Table emissions: on quality air of regression simple very a estimate we this, accomplish To 2 10 . 5 .I oun1 eseta hr sn eainhpbteneisosfo h summit the from emissions between relationship no is there that see we 1, column In ). uigtepro 0020,btteei usata eainhpfrtesubsequent the for relationship substantial a is there but 2000-2007, period the during E p t tr aao msin oefo h SGooia Survey Geological US the from come emissions on Data . = α 1 + 2 α msin ntdfo ¯luafo w locations, two K¯ılauea from from t/d in emissions ‘ovlai oewti h atr itZone Rift Eastern the within cone O‘¯o volcanic ¯ 2 2 E eesna ¯luawihi rcro othe to precursor a is K¯ılauea which near levels t + 2 e msin smaue ntn/a (t/d) tons/day in measured as emissions tr . 2 msin rmKıae r the K¯ılauea are from emissions E t rmtesmi rfrom or summit the from (4) 10 uhri(04 eotta h ieetpluat ntersml r hgl orltd p 207). (p. correlated” “highly are sample correlation their in the pollutants study, different the Neidell that same report the (2014) Mukherji In 0.0081. is it sample, our PM between In 0.52. is (CO) monoxide PM between coefficient correlation the parts California, most of correlated. In highly are 4. pollutants Table air in States, Hawai‘i United of the of state the in pollutants various between coefficients correlation expected. as Hawai‘i, South to sample the restrict we when between higher relationship substantially significant a show tables SO both using whole, SO to the addition On in Hawai‘i, stations. South monitoring from available data using only four last model SO the this Since whereas estimate summit, ERZ. the the from from emissions emissions on on focus focus columns columns four first The state. the across as not are PM point-estimates for the observed although we periods, as both close PM in and ERZ statistically relationship the significant more from statistically much emissions a between a see relationship see the we estimate we So columns, two last the (1). column PM and in about emissions error error between standard standard relationship a significant the it with of period, 2000-2007 size later period the the the for of for higher one-tenth estimate is estimate the point than the estimated that tightly see more not 2008-2010 is do and we 2000-2007 while in summit (6), the and from (5) emissions columns Comparing in columns. four all in increase quality large air very the experienced time has two that the emissions over of constant source relatively summit 2008. been since the has only ERZ is the It reassuring from is emissions periods. This of 0.00055). level fact, to the In compared that periods. (0.00059 given both identical in almost emissions are and coefficients quality estimated air the between relationship significant a see we table, This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article isprotected rights by All copyright. reserved.

Accepted16 Article 2 sfrhreiec fteidpnetvraino SO of variation independent the of evidence further As SO of impact the estimate we 3, Table In PM to Turning hsrltosi lohlsi ayohrprso h ol,icuigdvlpn onre.Gohand Ghosh countries. developing including world, the of parts other many in holds also relationship This msin n SO and emissions 10 n NO and 2 . 5 ntefia orclms esilsesgicn ffcso ocnceisoson emissions volcanic of effects significant see still we columns, four final the in 2 2 olto eestruhu h tt.O oei htteeetmtsare estimates these that is note Of state. the throughout levels pollution s07 hra norsml ti .27 ntect fPonx Arizona, Phoenix, of city the In 0.0267. is it sample our in whereas 0.7, is 10 . 2 msin rmKıae ntdo SO on t/d K¯ılauea in from emissions 2 . 5 10 2 o 0821 hnfrteerirpro.In period. earlier the for than 2008-2010 for eessol ehgetna h ocn,we volcano, the near highest be should levels n h xrml amu oltn carbon pollutant harmful extremely the and 16 o xml,i h edl 20)study (2004) Neidell the in example, For 2 n atclt olto,w present we pollution, particulate and 2 2 eesfo all from levels eesi ppb in levels 2 . 5 we ; nraei PM in increase PM for effect significant statistically a admissions see PM log not for on effect do particulates significant we of effects (7), the and of (3) estimates columns the in to Turning region. given a in reasons PM in increase PM of deviation standard the Similarly, PM PM of in deviation increase standard deviation The standard one level. 1% the at significant are that see we PM column, of fifth the effects In the observation. community day/SES a logs. for and admissions additional levels 0.015 both in model the estimate Newey- we report Finally, we estimations. above, all discussed for that reasons errors two For another standard estimate West and We measure pollution. 5. pollution lagged Table and contemporaneous in contemporaneous the reported includes includes are only Results that pulmonary-related for one (1). charges specifications: equation and of admissions estimation ER OLS on via pollutants reasons of effects the consider we First, Results OLS 4.1 Results 4 course, of than, (other pollutants industrial other many SO to unrelated is that pollution particulate PM between PM between SO coefficient that correlation evidence the As 0.0118. is PM it and CO between coefficient correlation the This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article isprotected rights by All copyright. reserved.

18 Accepted17 Article 2 o okn tteeet nE hre ntebto ae,w e htaone a that see we panel, bottom the in charges ER on effects the at looking Now one a that see we 5, Table of column first the In eas ml ubro h bevtoswr eo,w oktelgo h ucm lsone. plus outcome the of log the took we zeros, were observations the of number PM small that a note Because to important is It ). 10 n SO and 10 2 . 5 2 sascae ih$36 oecagsfrploayrltdamsin.The admissions. pulmonary-related for charges more $13.67 with associated is eut noeadtoa Ramsineey1.0dy o pulmonary-related for days 10.10 every admission ER additional one in results . 5 r agr iha siaeo .3 diinlamsin.Bt estimates Both admissions. additional 0.030 of estimate an with larger, are 2 2 ti 0.1. is it . 5 f0.36%. of 2 . 5 17 sacmoeto PM of component a is 2 PM , oauiu etr fordsg sta ehv oreof source a have we that is design our of feature unique a So 2 10 . 2 5 . 5 2 eut na diinlE diso vr 06 days. 10.68 every admission ER additional an in results n PM and . s3.30 is 5 n PM and , 2 . 5 µg/m 10 s08 seMre l 20).I u sample, our In (2000)). al. et Mar (see 0.85 is s05,btenPM between 0.52, is 10 10 . µg/m 3 niaigta n tnaddeviation standard one a that indicating , r en eeae ytesm source, same the by generated being are 3 nraei PM in increase 10 s6.24 is 2 µg/m . 5 n SO and 10 10 3 niaigta a that indicating , sascae with associated is u ed e a see do we but , 2 ti .,and 0.4, is it µg/m 18 3 utest einseicted.W hwta hr r tl infiateet ihteregional the with spurious. effects be significant may still charges are there that show We of trends. region-specific consequence to a bustness as increase fractures for admissions ER distributed that the evidence pollution. and no particulate pollution see contemporaneous We only with model. specification the lag both consider We request. upon 6. available are they but results, these report not do We investigations. these of SO as appendix. the in this PM of using explanation estimated formal effects a the provide of We estimates the that suggest would this 5, PM view 10 can and 2.5 one between dangerous, more PM are for proxy particulates noisy smaller a the because and PM this that Note of dangerous. Because particularly PM them since making consensus lungs medical into the deeply travel with consistent is This 5. Table in effects. persistent of of evidence level indicate the not on do estimations effects pollution the persistent particulate of for of evidence effects see persistent PM do for for We admissions evidence mixed admissions. is ER there pulmonary-related whole, on the On table. the one a PM that of see effect we the variable, that outcome the as charges PM of in log increase the using results the at Looking PM PM for number corresponding This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article isprotected rights by All copyright. reserved.

Accepted19 Article ial,i h pedxw odc ubro outestss is,w netgt ro- investigate we First, tests. robustness of number a conduct we appendix the in Finally, PM of effects the at look we test, placebo a As well as admissions ER cardiovascular-related on particulates of impact the investigated also We PM of effects the that is point important An of columns even the in model the of variant lagged distributed the of results the report We h ffcso PM of effects The 10 2 n PM and nbt umnr n adoaclramsin.W i o noe n ffcsi any in effects any uncover not did We admissions. cardiovascular and pulmonary both on 2 . 2 5 . 5 eut n$53 n 139 diinlcagsi ie eino ie day. given a on region given a in charges additional $143.91 and $85.30 in results sascae iha05%ices ncagsi oun() oee,w see we However, (7). column in charges in increase 0.52% a with associated is 10 10 µ nclm n nlgcagsfrPM for charges log on and 2 column in nallge ucmsapa ob otyisgicn n,s h eaieeeto log on effect negative the so and, insignificant mostly be to appear outcomes logged all on g/m 10 2 . 5 nlgcagsi eaiei oun3adsgicn tte10%. the at significant and 3 column in negative is charges log on hr h esrmn ro u oteadto fcasrparticulates coarser of addition the to due error measurement the where 3 sntma eobtcasclohrie sw aewtesdi Table in witnessed have we As otherwise. classical but zero mean not is 2 . 5 s$36.Rsetvl,aoesadr eito nraein increase deviation standard one a Respectively, $43.61. is 2 . 5 10 r ytmtclylre hnteeet fPM of effects the than larger systematically are n PM and 2 . 2 5 . 5 nclm .Hwvr h remainder the However, 6. column in namsin o rcue nTable in fractures for admissions on 2 . 5 u otersalsz,can size, small their to due , 10 10 hudb attenuated. be should oscnanPM contain does 19 µg/m 10 2 as . 10 5 3 . eetees u anpitrmiswihi htteeaesaoa atr nwinds. in patters seasonal are there that is which remains point main our Nevertheless, (8). and (7) columns in 14.64 and 13.16 to (6) and (5) excluded columns PM the in for of pattern power similar a explanatory see We the attenuate (3)-(4). columns greatly to is this the of since instruments effect net the This table, parlance. the local of 8. in Figure weather” in through “Kona depicted August called of is is months seasonality what the pat- during experience seasonal present residents strong less O‘ahu display are when winds they October which trade in the period that a is includes this which the for terns that variable reason however, dummy The the Note, attenuates winds. greatly sea. northeasterly (7)-(8) to and for out (3)-(4) vog columns the in blow dummies month they of and inclusion winds trade called PM are both winds for easterly O‘ahu on levels particulate on impact negative month week, the of day fashion. include cumulative fourth a and in dummies third, year second, first and The The specifications. controls. four of seasonality estimation no the contains from results the report PM we for measure, stages particulate each first the discussing by begin We Results IV 4.2 standard regions. the the SES and that on error find clustered standard we error robust Generally, Eicker-White the computed. between already lies error have these standard we compare Newey-West that the and errors model with the standard significant of Newey-West still errors the are standard to results alternative compute the we of Fourth, using Most Tobit. (1) and equation Tobit. in NBM and once model (NBM) the and, estimate model we seasonality binomial Third, for negative adjust in the inclusion. their thoroughly results to more the robust are that of results robustness effects the again, the fixed alternative explore we using to Second, 5 attenuated. Table somewhat are they but trends, This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article isprotected rights by All copyright. reserved.

Accepted20 Article ed o eiv mtigmnhdmist easrostra oorietfiain While identification. our to threat serious a be to dummies month omitting believe not do We strong a have northeast the from coming winds that see we (5)-(6), and (1)-(2) columns In oeta h gr hw htnrhatrywnsaeatal es rvln uigtewne months. winter the during prevalent least actually are winds northeasterly that shows figure the that Note F saitc ofo 84 n 77 nclms()()t .9ad42 in 4.28 and 8.99 to (1)-(2) columns in 17.76 and 18.46 from go -statistics 20 scnb eni the in seen be can As 10 2 . 5 n PM and ihthe with 2 . 10 5 F hc r eotdi al .For 7. Table in reported are which F saitcgigfo 95 n 28.87 and 29.54 from going -statistic n PM and saitc eotdi h bottom the in reported -statistics 2 . 5 sw icse,north- discussed, we As . a .1 n,s h ffcsaenwaot2 ie ihr oigo otecorresponding the to on Moving higher. times 28 Table about in now estimate are OLS effects corresponding the The so level. and, 1% 0.015 the PM was at of 5 significant impact is the and of 0.418 estimate is IV admissions the that see we 1, column seasonal the without specification parsimonious follows. confounded the what important dummies in with for month controls proceed controlling of thus without inclusion we instruments of and the effect variables weakening main omitted be the to view we stage such, first As the in provide relation. estimates the those on error bound measurement robust lower of are a Because estimates OLS seasonality. Our for A3. controls Table comprehensive in to reported specification are one results including whose seasonality dummies for month/year controls of with set comprehensive a include specifications estimate OLS the we importantly, also that and that Also variation monthly reasons. pulmonary-related similar for exhibit admissions that ER winds, variables impact trade omitted the other in any patterns seasonal of to conceive due cannot levels we vog in variation monthly is there that concede we This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article isprotected rights by All copyright. reserved. Accepted Article enwetmt h oe neuto 3 sn Vadpeetterslsi al .In 8. Table in results the present and IV using (3) equation in model the estimate now We iue8 esnlt nN Winds NE in Seasonality 8: Figure 2 . 5 ntelvlo pulmonary-related of level the on o V oevr vni twr ibeisrmn,tedsrpnybtenteOSadIV and OLS the between discrepancy the instrument, required viable restriction a were exclusion it consequence the if direct violates even a clearly Moreover, is K¯ılauea which behaviour by IV. avoidance produced for since is bias this that for vog correct the not of proxy does a case) (or our emissions volcanic in using it However, of that behaviour. variable avoidance omitted is plausible downwards only OLS The bias could variables. pollution our in error measurement of presence standard their charges. by in PM up increase in numbers increase 21.1% these deviation and scale standard one again, a once that we, obtain If we charges. deviations, in increase 6.7% a and one 8.2% a that see we charges, log on effects in increase deviation standard one a So, PM respectively. charges, additional $337.01 one and a $331.38 that with see We columns. numbered even the request. upon available are but reported not are results These included. are dummies quarterly the PM for estimate corresponding ( the 0.211 becomes PM attenuated 0.418 of are of impact estimates column the the first of although estimate stage, the second example, the For in this. dummies) by year and week the of day as a admissions. in results in pollution increase particulate 23.1% in a increase and deviation 35.6% standard one PM a respectively, in deviations that, standard obtain respective we the by one up a numbers that these see scale we we If 7, respectively. and 3 columns in admissions of log the µg/m on impacts the at looking Finally, increase 1.82. deviation standard one a Accordingly, PM larger. times in 18 about is which 0.030, was estimate PM of effects This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article isprotected rights by All copyright. reserved. Accepted Article u upco sta h usatal agretmtsta eoti sn Vaedet the to due are IV using obtain we that estimates larger substantially the that is suspicion Our in reported are which outcome the as day) (per charges with estimates IV the to turn now We well (as dummies quarterly of inclusion the to robust are 8 Table from results the Importantly, 10 3 n PM and 10 nraei PM in increase eut n26adtoa optlztosprdy h orsodn ubrfrPM for number corresponding the day; per hospitalizations additional 2.6 in results 2 . 2 5 . 5 nclm ,w e httepitetmt s053 hra h nlgu OLS analogous the whereas 0.553, is estimate point the that see we 5, column in eut n$078 n 11.3adtoa hre,rsetvl.Trigt the to Turning respectively. charges, additional $1112.13 and $2067.81 in results 10 n PM and 2 . 5 2 . 5 sascae iha57 n .%ices nadmissions, in increase 7.0% a and 5.7% a with associated is < p f053i h fhclm eoe .8 ( 0.282 becomes column fifth the in 0.553 of µg/m 0 . 0 hnqatrydmisaeicue.Similarly, included. are dummies quarterly when 10) 3 nraei PM in increase µg/m 3 10 nraei PM in increase nploayrltdamsin nthe in admissions related pulmonary on 10 n PM and 10 n PM and 10 2 . 5 n PM and eut na respective, a, in results 2 . 5 eut na51.2% a in results 2 < p . 5 10 sassociated is 0 n PM and . 1 when 01) 2 . 5 2 . 5 is , ecnutasre feecsst netgt foretmtso h ffcso atcltso ER on particulates of effects the of estimates our if investigate to exercises PM of SO either series with is a correlated confounder conduct is we possible that O‘ahu one of by traffic, island driven the or be on pollution cannot pollution result industrial this from pollution While particulate stemming of variables short-term. effect omitted the direct a in is outcomes there health that pulmonary-related indicate on to seem presented just results IV The admissions. Mechanisms ER on weather Kona 4.3 of effect possible suggesting a up further picking this simply to not robust are are results results IV The our common. that most is weather We Kona which R stage. in stage months first first because the granular estimates raises OLS more instruments the towards a of estimates proliferation using the moves the model stage find first IV not granular the more do a estimate We using we that fractures. show Next, outcome, placebo effects. our any on of particulates evidence of impact the estimate we First, exacerbated produce estimators. are effects may issues fixed error misalignment) in measurement Furthermore, spatial 1). and footnote (see (imprecision error factors measurement severe two epidemiological these The for that error. scope measurement suggests of of source literature plenty important another leaves as exposure recognized which and also measurement micrometres is of point location (10) between misalignment 2.5 spatial of The efficiency measurement. diameter transmission in variations aerodynamic a with an sampler at size-selective small 50% a of of inlet the mind through in passing PM bear particles Specifically, to important measured. is is it pollution However, particulate measurements. how particulate our in error measurement place. of taking is behaviour find avoidance we little lot that that show is suggesting we there fractures appendix, that on the pollution suggest in of does However, effects it variables. zero although pollution estimates, our in OLS the error as the measurement error in of measurement bias with downward us a leaves of This source only avoidance. of degree implausible an implies results This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article isprotected rights by All copyright. reserved. Accepted Article ial,i h pedx ecnutasre fadtoa xrie sn u Vestimator. IV our using exercises additional of series a conduct we appendix, the in Finally, amount the for have estimates these that implications the by surprised be may readers Many 2 ial,w siaetemdlexcluding model the estimate we Finally, . 2 . 5 (PM 10 stems e ui ee of meter cubic per mass the is ) 10 rPM or 2 . 5 nTbe n 10, and 9 Tables In . 2 rus h dai osewehrteeaedsrprint ffcsfrvleal populations vulnerable for effects disproportionate are admitted. there person whether the age see different of to in is admissions age of idea the number The the by outcomes pollutants groups. as using of regressions effects the run the we precisely, investigate More we 11, Table in Next, Age by Results 4.4 zero. are coefficients both that null the rejects resoundingly the Finally, column. second PM the and in column first the in admissions impact cantly PM includes that SO vector and a onto charges and admissions pulmonary regress we Specifically, SO involving terms the that null the reject to fail the all term of estimates the by shown SO as However, columns. two SO on first and coefficient the direction wind in between significant interactions marginally the are Next, from emissions O‘ahu. SO volcanic on on between levels relationship estimates particulate strong coefficient K¯ılauea and a the indicating significant contrast, highly In and positive sign. all incorrect the has always and SO raising K¯ılauea are from emissions results. our SO driving of is emission that volcanic O‘ahu is on really particulates it to converted if get test that to of is island exercise the this on of emission idea volcanic basic the which SO to by particulate proxied degree creates (as the emissions Hawai‘i indicates volcanic 9 which Table to O‘ahu, degree on the demonstrates pollution 7 Table in stage first the PM SO by contaminated are admissions This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article isprotected rights by All copyright. reserved. Accepted Article 2 nTbe1,w siae“ice ik regressions sink” “kitchen estimate we 10, Table In volcanic the that evidence find not do we and 9 Table from specifications four all estimate We either of lieu in that except (2) equation in stage first the of version a estimate we 9, Table In 2 . ees ial,the Finally, levels. 5 rPM or 2 nbt siain,SO estimations, both In . 10 NE eueSO use we , hsi ieydie ytefc htwn ieto ssrnl soitdwith associated strongly is direction wind that fact the by driven likely is this , F 2 ts fjitsgicneo h offiinso SO on coefficients the of significance joint of -test 2 eeso ot aa‘)aeascae ihSO with associated are Hawai‘i) south on levels eeso ‘h stedpnetvral.Weesteetmto of estimation the Whereas variable. dependent the as O‘ahu on levels 2 F 2 snvrsgicn,weesbt atclt esrssignifi- measures particulate both whereas significant, never is ts ftejitsgicneo h w atclt measures particulate two the of significance joint the of -test hthsmgae rmteiln fHwiit O‘ahu. to Hawai‘i of island the from migrated has that 2 eeso ‘h.Tececeto SO on coefficient The O‘ahu. on levels 10 etitdt h sado O‘ahu of island the to restricted a ihysgicn mato charges on impact significant highly a has 2 r zero. are 2 nteiln fHawai‘i of island the on 2 2 eeso ‘h.The O‘ahu. on levels 2 n h interaction the and snvrsignificant never is 2 nTbe7are 7 Table in 10 i OLS. via PM , 2 . 5 2 , ltso hr-emotoe uha lns n optlzto.Tu,teeaevr e studies few very are there Thus, hospitalization. and illness as such outcomes short-term on ulates birth affected the areas. of poorer percent in larger 1.2 much or Jayachandran is children,” size mortality. “missing effect infant The 15,600 on to cohort. led 1997 pollution in that occurred finds particulate that of (2009) fires impact the forest infer large-scale to from census Indonesian pollution 2000 10%. the the by after deaths from cardiovascular years data and uses 70%, six 16%, (2009) by by and Jayachandran decreased deaths Dublin before respiratory in 6%, years concentrations by smoke six declined black deaths comparing that non-trauma By found (2002) the al. 1990. ban et in Clancy to ban, Ireland decision coal the Dublin, lower years examined in 5.5 study coal about similar of are A sale expectancies mortality. life concentrations and cardiorespiratory ambient north find increased the (2013) to in al. due higher et similar 55% Chen about comparing river, are By Huai particulates the of of pollution. sides particulate opposite in on have changes located approaches large areas quasi-experimental to literature. most exposure existing particulates, long-term the on on to primarily focused compare focused results studies our how of of terms discussion In a with section this conclude Literature We the most the with are Comparison who young very the 4.5 is it that appears it So, pollution. bin. particulate to 2-5 vulnerable the PM for both is for bin measures age both 0-1 for the for largest the are estimates adjusted effects. larger indicate numbers Higher this. for adjust to report we of group, idea given better a a for gain higher to of are So, numbers pollution reasons. different of mechanical contain effects purely bins the for different whether part, the in Because vary, will estimates old. these very ages, the and young very the as such This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article isprotected rights by All copyright. reserved. Accepted Article thspoe uhmr icl oetmt h ffc frltvl ml eutosi partic- in reductions small relatively of effect the estimate to difficult more much proven has It The pollution. particulate by affected disproportionately indeed are people younger that see We (Effect) / #o gsi bin) in ages of (# × 1000 10 n PM and 2 . 5 h ethighest next The . nincte s05.I h od fPp I n okr 20) Hgl eae oudrtnigterole the understanding substantial CO.” includes to often and substantial sources related dioxide and includes traffic nitrogen “Highly typically from sources to pollution coal various to of coexposure (2006): of exposure burning and Dockery PM importance the nitrates relative SO2. from and secondary to pollution the III coexposure to understanding and exposure Pope sulphates is PM secondary of PM example, For words of copollutants. constituents the related and In characteristics various 0.51. of is cities Indian outcomes. PM2.5, health versus not PM10 and versus productivity CO worker of is other on impacts with here the along caveat identify emitted separately important is to an CO unable that are exposure, mentioning we monoxide and worth carbon pollutants of is impacts “It exceeds the typically estimate 507): we (2017) while (p. al. that words et own their Bharadwaj in in correlation and, matter the 0.9 particulate example, another and As monoxide 0.0267. carbon and between 0.0118 are sample our PM in between numbers coefficient corresponding the and 0.52 is PM particulate sample between (2004) of coefficient Neidell on the effect correlation effects no The large have finds pollutants admissions. (2004) other room but particulates Neidell emergency children that among example, asthma find For for pollutants hospitalizations on outcomes. other pollution health alongside on particulates correlated. effect of highly no effect are have the pollutants at major look most that that studies is health on particulates of particulate where standards. area EPA an U.S. in below occurs well This are admissions. levels pollution respiratory in particulate increase in 4% change a deviation with standard in correlated one children is a of that health finds strong respiratory (2015) finds the Ward which for Canada. (2015), pollution Ontario, Ward particulate probably of is effect own detrimental our the to for closest evidence study The cough. a of probability PM in increase increase deviation deviation standard standard one a that find PM (2014) in Mukherji and Ghosh effects fixed controls. city other and quasi-experimental month with a using along on use relies not strategy identification do their in they variation; children and pollution on of fortnightly source pollution vary air measures of pollution impact Their the explore India. results. (2014) urban Mukherji our and compare Ghosh directly to effects. smaller us allow find that of aware are we that This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article isprotected rights by All copyright. reserved.

Accepted22 21 Article smninderir n ftemjrcnonigise nietfigtesottr effect short-term the identifying in issues confounding major the of one earlier, mentioned As hn ta.(06 xlr hr-emvraini atclt atra eesblwEAsadrsbtfocus but standards PM EPA below between levels coefficient at correlation matter particulate The in variation short-term explore (2016) al. et Chang 2 . 5 sascae iha60 rbblt onsices ntelklho facuh n 1 a and cough, a of likelihood the in increase points probability 6.01 a with associated is 10 sascae iha1.4poaiiypit nraei the in increase points probability 14.74 a with associated is 2 . 5 n irgndoiei h hs n uhri(04 td of study (2014) Mukherji and Ghosh the in dioxide nitrogen and 10 n irgndoiei ..The 0.7. is dioxide nitrogen and 21 hs htd xs edto tend exist do that Those 10 n abnmnxd in monoxide carbon and 22 nfc,many fact, In tvnHwl,AdePtatu,C re oeII onPre,adEiaehTm swl nrsac published (2015). research al. on gas. well et as Businger ammonium Tam, and Elizabeth by acidity and (2012) Porter, neutralized al. The John et III, been Mather Pope have basis. in Arden C. they consistent Pattantyus, Andre which acidic a Howell, Steven to more on degree be confirmed the may be on vog to depends the yet sulphates in has the sulphates this of and the but K¯ılauea vog that in smog, believed particles typical is the to it Although compared aerosols, different. sulfate be both may are aerosols smog sulfate the cities) of most in size pollution particulate the of and identification the high compounding and issues the compounds of oxide (one nitrogen levels contains ozone typically differences smog main volcanic that the with is of One confused smog and K¯ılauea be eruptions). vog between volcanic not during should created Vog minerals and aerosols. rock of sulfate (fragments of ash amounts large contain both that in smog. K¯ılauea establish and from to vog between experts differences medical a main and the with volcanologists, consulted We meteorologists, scientists, cities. most atmospheric in of found number pollution particulate the to comparable K¯ılauea is from otherwise. suggest to appear consequences results adverse Our of particulates. evidence long-term in little increases sustained is short-term that there to reflective but literature due is damaging the is This in pollution finding particulate period). standard to hour the exposure one and a wisdom over conventional 35ppm the is monoxide of carbon least for the standard are primary pollution PM the particulate for standard for primary standards the the example, frequency, (for restrictive temporal quality of air terms hourly without In pollutants par- only standards. and the are lead, lead pollutants dioxide, and “criteria” sulphur pollution main ozone, particulate dioxide, six pollution), ticulate nitrogen the monoxide, of (carbon that EPA note the to by interesting regulated is it hospitalizations, ER and lution sunlight). of ozone presence creates one (which the and only dioxide in nitrogen affects statistically or that both monoxide instrument carbon observe emit an to not have studies K¯ılauea does we volcano few pollutant. that the is of particulates one of be effects may significant we economically reasons the of one Thus, etc.” This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article isprotected rights by All copyright. reserved.

Accepted23 Article n motn su ihetaoaigorfidnst te otxsi hte rnttevog the not or whether is contexts other to findings our extrapolating with issue important One pol- particulate in variation short-term between link causal a finding our of context the Within h nomto nti aarp n h eti ae nproa omncto ihSee Businger, Steven with communication personal on based is next the and paragraph this in information The 2 . 5 sa nulma f12.0 of mean annual an is 23 o rmKıae n mgaesimilar are smog K¯ılauea and from Vog µ g/m 3 whereas fpluat.Mjravne npbi elhcudb aei ecncretyietf htare what identify correctly pollution. can particulate we of if forms made dangerous characteristics be the most could on the health focus public to in Dockery advances and ( Major Pope pollutants by pollutants. other call of the or reinforce ozone results eastern primarily our in is fact, plants In smog power where Angeles). coal-fired where settings near settings to areas so to less (e.g. results but aerosols our Pennsylvania) sulfate extrapolating of Thus, confident composed most primarily pollution.” feel is PM smog we of validity, toxicity external relative of health the observed terms the affect in for may responsible is characteristics PM general of various component trace effects, provides or literature major the to single Although a relates effects. that health knowledge evidence characteristics observed little our and the for in pollutants, responsible of gaps most sources biggest and are pollutants, pollutants the III of of of Pope combination “One pollutants, review, that, air comprehensive 730-1 not specific a what do pp. In we on time, state outcomes. in (2006) point health Dockery this affect At differences chemical and sources. these physical and how the regions know in across differences directly are pollution be There not particulate can of California. Pennsylvania or properties in York smog New the in pollution; smog smog to However, of compared copollutants. study of any absorption to There and applies chemistry, example. caveat for shape, Hawai‘ithis Pennsylvania, size, in eastern particle vog of on regions that based coal mean differences the not are in does smog this to compared said, directly That be K¯ılauea vog. can to similar very is plants) power on based is standard EPA the that fact the by complicated emissions exposure. is when long-term this effects but observing guidelines are EPA we post- below why aerosols are sulfate explain for may calculated which are ammonium, pollution with particulate the neutralization for from guidelines and EPA breathing) as fertilizers. (such of activity animal use and human from comes typically gas Ammonium This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article isprotected rights by All copyright. reserved. Accepted Article vrl,so hti rmrl opsdo uft eoos(uha htfudna coal-fired near found that as (such aerosols sulfate of composed primarily is that smog Overall, e.g. Los nvriyCleeLno,Sa al colo cnmc,IsiuefrFsa tde n CeMMAP and Studies Fiscal for Institute Economics, of S˜aoSchool London, Paulo UHERO College M¯anoa large. University and at quite is Hawai’i IZA cost of and M¯anoa, full University UHERO, at the Hawai’i that scope of suggest the University certainly beyond estimates is our Hawai‘i but in room. health analysis emergency affects this the pollution of volcanic to that trip ways different a causes the vog necessitate of that not counting suggests do evidence that Anecdotal impacts admissions. health ER considerable to attention our PM restricted with have regression associated we our costs that and implies admissions likely the behaviour of avoidance estimates earlier, discussed As perspective. welfare a under (children five). young of very pollution age the particulate the among of concentrated effects most the The are outcome. admissions placebo pulmonary-related on our fractures, on pollution volcanic SO of pure We effect for outcomes. effects pulmonary-related strong for find visits not room do emergency on expenditures in increase 23-36% a pulmonary- increases pollution particulate that Hawai‘i hospitalization. evidence in related quality strong air find that we assumption the determined, on there randomly Relying when is emissions. post-2008, daily strongest of level is elevated relationship an The been has between Hawai‘i. correlation in statistical quality strong air Air a and observe We emissions Hawai‘i. K¯ılaueavolcanic south. is when the of except from state nation coming the are the winds in and highest in erupting the costs ranked SO typically and of are Hawai‘i impact admissions in the room conditions for quality emergency test to on eruptions matter volcanic by particulate induced and quality air in variation used have We Conclusions 5 This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article isprotected rights by All copyright. reserved.

Accepted24 Article ubro aet edt ebrei idwe nepeigorrgeso siae from estimates regression our interpreting when mind in borne be to need caveats of number A to leads pollution particulate in increase deviation standard one a that suggest results IV Our Vg-vlai mg-klspat,cssahz vrHawai‘i”, over haze a casts plants, kills - smog volcanic - “Vog 2 olto rfrcrivsua ucms eas n no find also We outcomes. cardiovascular for or pollution S Today USA 2 . 5 r isddwwrs Furthermore, downwards. biased are a ,2008. 2, May , 24 ulac- full A 2 okr,DulsW re oe iigX,Jh pnlr ae Ware, H James Spengler, D John Xu, Xiping Pope, Arden C W, Douglas Dockery, Walker Reed and Janet Currie, Dockery W Douglas and Sinclair, Hamish Goodman, Pat Luke, Clancy, Li Hongbin and Greenstone, Michael Ebenstein, Avraham Yuyu, Chen, Greenstone Michael and Y Kenneth Chay, Greenstone Michael and Dobkin, Carlos Kenneth, Chay, Neidell Matthew and Gross, Tal Zivin, Graff Joshua Tom, Chang, Chung- Chang, Wei-Tien Chen, Wen-Jone Chuang, Kai-Jen Chang-Chuan, Chan, Lagunzad D Kenneth John and G Jorge Camara, Tamar Sutton, Jeff A Horton, Keith Pattantyus, Andre Huff, Roy Steven, Businger, Neil- Christopher and Zivin, Graff Joshua Gibson, Matthew Prashant, Bharadwaj, M. Arellano, Oliva Paulina and Hanna, Rema Eva, Arceo-Gomez, References This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article isprotected rights by All copyright. reserved. son Mexico from Evidence Countries? Developed and Developing City,” Between Differ Mortality Infant ataEFy ejmnGFri r n rn Speizer E cities,” Accepted Frank US six and in 1753–1759. 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This article isprotected rights by All copyright. reserved. e ag ohaBGen rdrc rsy n ikeLCrosby L at Vickie activity increased and from Crosby, (vog) 1370–1381. pollution (20), L 2008,” air Frederick volcanic in to Volcano Green, exposure Kilauea with B associated Joshua effects health Yang, Repeated Wei A K¯ılauea, Volcano: at Activity Increased with Survey,” Associated Population-Based Effects Health “Adverse , 23–31. (1), olto vrteIln fHwii msin,dsesl n opsto.Ascainwith Association composition. and dispersal, Avol Emissions, Edward Hawai’i: and of Dockery, Island the Douglas over Tantisira, pollution Kelan Chen, AcceptedYi-Leng Epidemiology,” Brunekreer Pollution Bert Air and in III, Pope Arden C. health,” adults,” US of al. study et medicine prospective care Heath a W in mortality Clark of Speizer, E Frank Evans, (Spain),” Barcelona in study crossover Sunyer Jordi and asthma,” childhood on quality hospitalizations,” Angeles,” Los of ports the from Hawaii,” K¯ılauea volcano, of 2012, al. eruption et summit Sutton 2008 AJ ongoing Edmonds, M Sims, KWW Article 1995-1997.,” Phoenix, in mortality 2000, and pollution air between pollution,” air volcanic sulphurous 83 108 292–323. , eiwo cnmcStudies Economic of Review 4,347. 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(3), ora fTxclg n niomna elh atA Part Health, Environmental and Toxicology of Journal SNPbi Health Public ISRN ora fHat Economics Health of Journal i ult,Amshr n Health and Atmosphere Quality, Air ora fHmnResources Human of Journal ulchealth Public 2016, , niomn international Environment Pluin elh n viac eairevidence behavior avoidance and health, “Pollution, , 83 Crirsiaoyhat ffcsascae with associated effects health “Cardiorespiratory , CnonigadEpsr esrmn Error Measurement Exposure and “Confounding , Arot,arpluin n contemporaneous and pollution, air “Airports, , 2009, , 2013, , 2,768–809. (2), 2008, , Hlgn n rc ea msin rmthe from emissions metal trace and “Halogens , mrcnjunlo eprtr n critical and respiratory of journal American 44 Priuaearpluina predictor a as pollution air “Particulate , 2013. 122 2,450–478. (2), 8,809–820. (8), 2004, , eciiae omciiaActa Cosmochimica et Geochimica 2011, , niomna elhperspectives health Environmental 2012, , 23 ue2012, June , 46 usn research Nursing 6,1209–1236. (6), 1,154–175. (1), 48 150–155. , Vlai air “Volcanic , “Associations , 5 2,203–216. (2), 2010, , 2009, , “Acute , 73 58 , , ii,Jsu rffadMthwNeidell Matthew and Graff Joshua Zivin, J Courtney Ward, Barnes M Gary and Chu, Pao-Shin Kristine, Tofte, Vonk, JM Boumghar, A Michelozzi, P Forsberg, B Samoli, E Medina, S Le, A Tertre, This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article isprotected rights by All copyright. reserved. o ocncso curne nOh,Hawaii,” Oahu, on occurrences smog volcanic for al. cities,” 2002, et European eight Ayres in JG diseases cardiovascular Atkinson, R Bellini, A children,” school Island Hawai’i in function national lung and symptoms respiratory Accepted Articleagement behavior,” avoidance intertemporal and closure 1694–1732. (5), hospitalizations,” 18. 56 2016, , 2009, , 1) 773–779. (10), 92 58 543–552. , aainJunlo cnmc/eu aained’´economique canadienne Economics/Revue of Journal Canadian 2,119–128. (2), I’ nilwn:Teeeto n atclt i olto nrespiratory on pollution air particulate fine of effect The wind: ill an “It’s , Sottr ffcso atclt i olto on pollution air particulate of effects “Short-term , Dy fhz:Evrnetlifraindis- information Environmental haze: of “Days , ora fEvrnetlEooisadMan- and Economics Environmental of Journal i ult,Amshr Health & Atmosphere Quality, Air ora fEieilg omnt Health Community & Epidemiology of Journal Lresaewahrpten favorable patterns weather “Large-scale , niomn inter- Environment 07 p 1– pp. 2017, , 2015, , 48 , This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article isprotected rights by All copyright. reserved. Accepted Article

Table 1: Summary Statistics for Pollutant and Hospitalization Data PM10 PM2.5 SO2 Cardiovascular Pulmonary Fractures in µg/m3 in µg/m3 in ppb Admissions Charges Admissions Charges Admissions Charges Aiea/Pearl City 16.53 4.37 – 4.41 5005.89 5.00 3932.30 2.25 1608.22 (5.61) (2.41) (2.35) (3733.90) (2.90) (3020.09) (1.56) (1374.24) Central Honolulu 13.85 4.25 0.62 4.75 6334.18 5.42 5043.31 2.40 1952.71 (4.71) (2.32) (0.75) (2.51) (4354.10) (2.92) (3624.98) (1.61) (1561.85) East Kauai – 5.84 2.77 2.57 4548.77 3.10 3041.77 1.16 902.77 – (2.94) (4.10) (1.61) (3253.94) (1.85) (2233.14) (1.11) (951.47) Ewa 15.19 4.94 0.70 5.36 7218.27 7.67 6378.39 2.66 1900.35 (5.70) (2.99) (0.64) (2.68) (4750.31) (3.56) (3954.93) (1.69) (1496.38) Hilo/North Hawai‘i 11.60 5.19 2.87 4.13 5124.33 4.55 3599.80 1.66 1128.62 (3.55) (4.15) (5.92) (2.27) (3584.68) (2.52) (2793.71) (1.33) (1183.50) Kona – 15.98 4.96 3.08 4366.75 4.11 3743.41 1.94 1600.16 (5.88) (4.61) (1.90) (3264.70) (2.39) (2671.91) (1.43) (1413.31) South Hawai‘i – 9.12 11.28 2.48 3078.78 2.96 2379.53 1.16 840.45 (4.84) (13.33) (1.81) (2836.40) (2.04) (2249.64) (1.10) (1046.95) West/Central Maui 20.41 6.41 – 3.11 3992.91 3.26 2482.01 1.73 1494.84 (7.54) (5.19) (2.01) (3445.52) (2.22) (2235.51) (1.41) (1432.09) West Honolulu – 7.36 – 4.74 6125.65 7.27 6362.04 2.21 1736.69 (3.70) (2.37) (4084.08) (3.45) (3973.84) (1.51) (1442.21) All 16.04 6.52 3.29 4.01 5159.18 5.00 4204.16 1.98 1512.00 (6.24) (3.30) (6.96) (2.45) (4018.47) (3.23) (3460.13) (1.53) (1417.32) Notes: Reports means and standard deviations in parentheses. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article isprotected rights by All copyright. reserved. Accepted Article

Table 2: Effects of Volcanic Emissions of SO2 (tons/day) on Particulate Pollution (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8)

PM10 PM2.5 ∗∗∗ ∗∗ ∗ ∗ ∗∗∗ ∗ ∗∗∗ SO2 (tons/day) -0.000531 0.00234 0.00059 0.00055 0.01061 0.00195 0.00067 0.00128 (0.00474) (0.00078) (0.00029) (0.00028) (0.00563) (0.00063) (0.00041) (0.00039) Source of Measurement –Summit × × × × –Eastern Rift Zone × × × × 2000-2007 × × × × 2008-2010 × × × × NT 1297 1391 1130 635 895 2636 789 1203 ∗ significant at the 10% level; ∗∗ significant at the 5% level; ∗∗∗ significant at the 1% level Notes: Each column corresponds to a regression of a pollutant onto measures of SO2 emissions from Kilauea measured in tons/day. Newey-West standard errors are reported in parentheses.

Table 3: Effects of Volcanic Emissions of SO2 (tons/day) on SO2 Pollution (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) Emissions from the Summit Emissions from the Eastern Rift Zone ∗∗∗ ∗∗ ∗ ∗∗∗ ∗∗∗ ∗∗ ∗∗∗ SO2 (tons/day) 0.00926 0.03122 0.00254 0.01357 0.00060 0.00148 0.00029 0.00035 (0.000248) (0.01235) (0.00135) (0.00234) (0.00015) (0.00067) (0.00051) (0.00128) 2000-2007 × × × × 2008-2010 × × × × Restricted to S. Hawai‘i × × × × NT 1608 187 2145 366 1457 180 976 162 ∗ significant at the 10% level; ∗∗ significant at the 5% level; ∗∗∗ significant at the 1% level Notes: Per Table 3. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article isprotected rights by All copyright. reserved. Accepted Article Table 4: Pollution Correlation Matrix PM2.5 PM10 SO2 CO NO2

PM2.5 1 PM10 0.5247 1 SO2 0.4047 0.0937 1 CO 0.0118 0.0081 0.0560 1 NO2 0.0798 0.0267 0.2032 -0.0346 1

Table 5: Effects of Particulates on Pulmonary Outcomes (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8)

PM10 (in levels) PM2.5 (in levels) Levels Logs Levels Logs Admissions t 0.015∗∗∗ 0.012∗∗ 0.0006 0.0002 0.030∗∗∗ 0.025∗∗∗ 0.0036∗∗∗ 0.0038∗∗∗ (0.004) (0.005) (0.0007) (0.0009) (0.006) (0.007) (0.0010) (0.0013) t − 1 0.009∗∗ 0.0008 0.007 0.0000 (0.005) (0.0008) (0.007) (0.0013) F -Test [0.000] [0.2205] [0.000] [0.0043] NT 13902 12933 13902 12933 17831 14844 17831 14844 Charges t 13.67∗∗∗ 11.89∗∗ -0.0045∗ -0.0058∗ 43.61∗∗∗ 28.11∗∗∗ 0.0052∗∗∗ 0.0040 (4.03) (4.74) (0.0025) (0.0032) (6.40) (8.13) (0.0026) (0.0037) t − 1 6.34 0.0014 13.68∗ 0.0002 (4.62) (0.0030) (8.08) (0.0036) F -Test [0.000] [0.1187] [0.000] [0.2072] NT 13869 12899 13869 12899 17745 14751 17745 14751 ∗ significant at the 10% level; ∗∗ significant at the 5% level; ∗∗∗ significant at the 1% level Notes: All estimations include region, day, month, and year dummies. Newey-West standard errors are reported in parentheses. The F -test is a test that the sum of the contemporaneous and lagged pollution variable sum to zero and its p-value is reported in brackets. The dependent variable is ER admissions or charges either in levels or logs. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article isprotected rights by All copyright. reserved. Accepted Article

Table 6: Placebo Tests: Effects of Particulates on Admissions for Fractures (1) (2) (3) (4)

PM10 PM2.5 t 0.003 0.001 0.002 0.000 (0.002) (0.003) (0.003) (0.004) t − 1 0.003 0.003 (0.003) (0.004) F -Test [0.435] [0.677] NT 14004 13036 17965 14982 Notes: Per Table 5.

Table 7: IV Results: First Stages (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8)

PM10 PM2.5 NE (Northeasterly winds) -1.23∗∗∗ -1.21∗∗∗ -0.12 -0.12 -1.02∗∗∗ -1.02∗∗∗ -0.46∗∗ -0.58∗∗∗ (0.30) (0.29) (0.28) (0.27) (0.20) (0.20) (0.20) (0.19) ∗∗∗ ∗∗∗ ∗∗∗ ∗∗∗ ∗∗∗ ∗∗∗ ∗∗∗ ∗∗ SO2 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.03 (0.02) (0.02) (0.01) (0.02) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) ∗ ∗ ∗∗∗ ∗∗ ∗∗ ∗∗ ∗∗ ∗∗ SO2 × NE -0.03 -0.03 -0.03 -0.03 -0.03 -0.03 -0.03 -0.03 (0.02) (0.02) (0.02) (0.02) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) Day of Week Dummies No Yes Yes Yes No Yes Yes Yes Month Dummies No No Yes Yes No No Yes Yes Year Dummies No No No Yes No No No Yes F -Test 18.46 17.76 8.99 4.28 29.54 28.87 13.16 14.64 NT 6814 6814 6814 6814 6195 6195 6195 6195 ∗ significant at the 10% level; ∗∗ significant at the 5% level; ∗∗∗ significant at the 1% level Notes: All estimations include region dummies. Newey-West standard errors are reported in parentheses. The F -Test is a test of the joint significance of the excluded exogenous variables. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article isprotected rights by All copyright. reserved. Accepted Article Table 8: IV Results: The Impact of Particulates on Pulmonary Outcomes (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) Admissions Charges Admissions Charges Admissions Charges Admissions Charges Levels Logs Levels Logs ∗∗∗ ∗∗∗ ∗∗∗ ∗∗∗ PM10 0.418 331.38 0.057 0.082 - - - - (0.073) (72.53) (0.010) (0.015) ∗∗∗ ∗∗∗ ∗∗∗ ∗∗∗ PM2.5 - - - - 0.553 337.01 0.070 0.067 (0.087) (77.25) (0.011) (0.015) F -Test 18.46 29.54 NT 6814 6779 6814 6779 6195 6115 6195 6115 ∗ significant at the 10% level; ∗∗ significant at the 5% level; ∗∗∗ significant at the 1% level Notes: All estimations include region dummies. Newey-West standard errors are reported in parentheses. The F -Test is a test of the joint significance of the excluded exogenous variables. We only report the F -statistics from the first stages using admissions; the F -statistics from the regressions using charges are similar.

Table 9: OLS Estimates of the Effects of SO2 from the Island of Hawai‘i on SO2 on O‘ahu (1) (2) (3) (4) NE (Northeasterly winds) -0.305∗∗∗ -0.304∗∗∗ -0.243∗∗∗ -0.260∗∗∗ (0.047) (0.047) (0.048) (0.046) SO2 -0.002 -0.002 -0.002 -0.002 (0.002) (0.002) (0.002) (0.002) ∗ ∗ SO2 × NE 0.004 0.004 0.003 0.003 (0.002) (0.002) (0.002) (0.002) Day of Week Dummies No Yes Yes Yes Month Dummies No No Yes Yes Year Dummies No No No Yes F -Test 1.62 1.61 1.11 1.01 [0.1989] [0.1997] [0.3298] [0.3655] NT 4633 4633 4633 4633 ∗ significant at the 10% level; ∗∗ significant at the 5% level; ∗∗∗ significant at the 1% level Notes: All estimations include region dummies. Newey-West standard errors are reported in parentheses. The F -Test is a test of the joint significance of SO2 and its interaction with the wind variable. Its p-value is reported in brackets. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article isprotected rights by All copyright. reserved. ee-etsadr rosaerpre nprnhss ahcl orsod oasprt regression. separate a to corresponds dummies. cell year Each and Accepted month, parentheses. region, in includes that reported regression are OLS errors separate standard a Newey-West from come estimates All Notes: ∗ 65+ 51-65 19-50 11-18 6-10 2-5 0-1 Article infiata h 0 level; 10% the at significant aderr r eotdi aetee.The stan- Newey-West parentheses. dummies. in year PM reported and month, are day, errors region, dard include estimations All Notes: ∗ NT F PM PM SO al 1 ffcso atcltso umnr disosb g ftePatient the of Age by Admissions Pulmonary on Particulates of Effects 11: Table infiata h 0 level; 10% the at significant -Test 2 10 2 10 . 5 n PM and 0.006 0.005 (0.001) (0.001) (0.002) (0.001) (0.001) (0.001) (0.002) 0.003 PM 0.001 0.002 0.000 0.001 10 2 ∗∗∗ ∗∗∗ ∗∗ . 5 Its . al 0 ice ikOSRgeso nO‘ahu on Regression OLS Sink Kitchen 10: Table p vlei eotdi brackets in reported is -value Admissions ∗∗ [0.0001] (0.023) (0.011) (0.060) 0.050 0.018 0.028 infiata h %level; 5% the at significant 4684 9.63 fae nbin in ages of # ∗∗ ∗∗ ∗ Effect infiata h %level; 5% the at significant 0.00 0.13 0.20 0.19 0.75 2.50 - umnr Outcomes Pulmonary × 1000 F Ts sats ftejitsgicneof significance joint the of test a is -Test ∗∗∗ infiata h %level 1% the at significant 0.006 0.011 0.007 0.007 0.006 0.004 (0.002) (0.002) (0.003) (0.001) (0.001) (0.002) (0.002) ∗∗∗ PM 0.000 infiata h %level 1% the at significant 2 ∗∗∗ ∗∗∗ ∗∗∗ ∗∗∗ ∗∗∗ ∗∗∗ . 5 Charges 31.97 [0.0001] (27.13) (11.60) (64.99) -47.61 35.29 4941 9.70 ∗∗∗ fae nbin in ages of # Effect 0.00 0.40 0.34 0.50 1.75 3.50 - × 1000