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Efter Afghanistan VÅRT FÖRSVAR Oberoende tidskrift sedan 1890 Nr 3, Oktober 2015 Efter Afghanistan Ledare VÅRT FÖRSVAR Exit Afghanistan Oberoende tidskrift för försvar och säkerhet sedan 1890 och utges av ramtiden för afghanerna ut- afghanska konflikten har vidare Allmänna försvarsföreningen. målas sällan i ljusa pasteller. förgreningar till Mellanöstern, Det finns starka skäl för detta. Kaukasus och Centralasien. Inte Vårt Försvar utkommer med fyra F minst den geostrategiska situa- nummer per år. Tidskriften är ett Stabilitet och säkerhet i landet kan tionen i Mellanöstern med IS fram- populärvetenskapligt, opolitiskt bara nås via en fredsprocess som gångar och den katastrofala situa- organ för analys och debatt i försvars- tydligt involverar talibanerna. och säkerhetsfrågor. tionen i Irak gör att Washington Detta verkar vara en nästintill sannolikt söker slå vakt om möjlig- Ansvarig utgivare: utopisk tanke givet dessas interna heterna till en närvaro i Afghanistan Ingemar Wahlberg, ordförande konflikter om hur man ska förhålla i syfte att, förutom fortsatt begränsa Allmänna försvarsföreningen sig till en dialog/ förhandlingar talibanernas inflytande åstad- med Kabulregeringen och dennas Chefredaktör: komma sammaledes avseende de bundsförvanter, framförallt USA. Tommy Jeppsson ryska och kinesiska ambitionerna i E-post: [email protected] I förlängningen innebär situationen regionen. fortsatt västlig, inkluderande Redaktionskommitté: Afghanistan får också ökande amerikansk militär närvaro i landet Claes Arvidsson, Tommy Jeppsson, betydelse som basområde för mil- Stefan Ring och Cindy Sturesson om än med inledande fokus på att itära insatser i Centralasien och bygga upp inhemska afghanska Redigering: Kaukasus vilket inte minst samman- säkerhetsstyrkor och polis. Således Maria Fernsten, Tryckerigruppen AB hänger med lägesutvecklingen i fortsatt krig med vidhäftad inhemsk Ukraina. Landet utgör ett geograf- Tryck: motvilja mot den utländska mil- iskt lämpligt territorium utifrån Tryckerigruppen AB itära närvaron. Hur länge detta vilket situationen i Ukraina militärt krig kan tänkas pågå är omöjligt Nästa nummer: kan påverkas av Nato/USA. att sia om. Är det början på slutet 4/12 2015 eller slutet på början? En titt i Detta är ramfaktorer utifrån vilken Material: backspegeln uppmuntrar inte och den svenska diskussionen kring ett Publicering av artiklar införda i Vårt gör att ett fortsatt, tidsmässigt exit Afghanistan också borde föras. Försvar medges med angivande av långt utdraget krig framstår som en Med andra ord, utgående från källan. Tidningen tar inte ansvar för insänt icke beställt material. högoddsare. Sveriges roll i ett vidare västligt säkerhetssamarbete. Och därmed fortsatt blodsutgjut- Prenumeration: else och förluster i människoliv av Sverige blir kvar i Afghanistan Helår fyra nummer: 200 SEK. Pris t o m 25 år: 100 SEK. såväl soldater som civila. I väst- med en starkt reducerad militär Bankgiro 482-8885 eller länder tenderar detta att skapa personalvolym och det civila Plusgiro 127 11-8 nationella trauma inrikespolitiskt biståndet fortsätter. Var det värt och säkerhetspolitiskt leda till en satsade miljarder? Var det värt ISSN: 0042 - 2800 aversion mot interventioner. Detta insatsen i människoliv och person- i en situation där stora geopolitiska skador? Det är frågor som också Annonser och annonspriser: förändringar i Afghanistans närhet regeringens enmansutredning om Aff:s kansli är möjliga, sammanhängande med Afghanistaninsatsen måste svara Teatergatan 3, 111 48 Stockholm hur maktförhållandena utvecklas på – och Sverige nye ÖB Micael Telefon: Kanslichefen Bo Jifält 0708-60 87 71 mellan Kina och Indien samt vilken Bydén dra slutsatser av. E-post: [email protected] effekt detta och en turbulent inrikes- www.aff.a.se politisk situation kan påverka stabiliteten i Pakistan. Organisationsnummer: 802000-1106 För Sverige som fortsatt har ett, om än reducerat, militärt styrkebidrag i landet är utgångspunkten för Omslagsbild, foto: den inhemska debatten oftast det Jimmy Croona, Combat Camera, Försvarsmakten. nationella perspektivet medan den 3 22 32 VÅRT FÖRSVAR Nr 3, Oktober 2015 Noterat Analys och debatt Johan Larnefeldt Michael Odenberg 5 Kinas försvar 22 Så här sårbara är vi i Sverige Samhället lider av el-överkänslighet. Sten Tolgfors om Sverige och Nato Samuel Bergenwall 25 Den indiska tigern vässar sina klor Sten Tolgfors Stormakt i vardande. 7 Sverige i Nato ger krigsavhållande effekt Integrerat försvar i Österjöområdet. Misse Wester 28 Människor agerar inte som på film TEMA: Afghanistan Paniken är en myt. Håkan Edström, Marcus Mohlin, Anders Oltorp, – var det värt det? Tomas Ries, Jacob Westberg 30 Nyttja historien i säkerhetspolitisk debatt! Wilhelm Agrell Ryssland kränks inte om vi väljer Nato. 11 Frågetecken kring ett krig som bara blev Hur fattades besluten? Carl Bergqvist Som så ofta får man hoppas på det bästa Michael Claesson 32 Så blev uppgörelsen om försvaret. 14 Lärdomar av den militära insatsen Gamla sanningar fungerar. Claes Bergström 34 Danmark ersätter F 16 Tormod Heier Beslut fattas i närtid. 16 Den globale krigen mot terror Soldatene mistet sin uskyld. Lars Gyllenhaal 35 Svenska medier hänger inte med Bengt Kristiansson Georgien borde varit ögonöppnare. 18 Krigföring och bistånd hör inte ihop Den militära kompetensen brister. Amanda Wollstad 36 Små steg bort från självständighet Allan Widman Anpassning pågår. 20 Svik inte våra veteraner Fristående veterancentrum behövs. Ord i tiden Cindy Sturesson 38 Gränser i ett gränslöst Europa På flykt från krig. 4 Analys ochNoterat debatt KINAS FÖRSVAR: FOLKFÖRANKRING OCH EXPEDITIONÄR FÖRMÅGA Kinas tionde försvarsrelaterade het. De ökande ambitionerna vad roll för att värna social stabilitet vitbok, en nationell militär strategi, gäller expeditionär förmåga kopp- och upprätthålla partiets makt- har publicerats. Några utgångs- las till antipiratoperationer, terror- position. Här pekar man också på punkter är fredlig utveckling och ismbekämpning och humanitära behovet av att stärka banden mel- defensiv försvarspolitik samt att insatser snarare än till krigföring. lan folket och militären. Kina inte eftersträvar expansion. En Vitboken tar upp oro- förutsättning för detta är givetvis ligheter och terrorism att landets ledning ser vissa kon- i Tibet och Xinjiang flikter – Sydkinesiska/Östkinesiska samt påpekar att haven, Taiwan – som inrikesfrågor. militären har en aktiv Utrikes intressen nämns tydligare, och med konsekvenser för militära prioriteringar. Markarenans och arméns traditionella dominans försvagas, i och med satsningar på Kina bygger inte bara marinen och flygvapnet. Utöver längre murar mot om- detta betonar man små, modulära världen. Foto: testing, enheter samt rörlighet och uthållig- Shutterstock. UTMANINGAR MED UPPRORSBEKÄMPNING GENOM OMBUD Omvärldens ovilja till mer om- utbilda 54 rebeller. Inte långt där- väpnade styrkor under krigen i Irak fattande ingripande mot IS/Daesh efter medgav Pentagon att man och Afghanistan. Några problem har gjort att utbildning och övning tappat kontakten med många av som lyfts fram är oklara och mot- av (förhoppningsvis) moderata dessa och inte visste var de befann stridiga målsättningar, oförmåga syriska rebeller ofta betonats från sig. att förstå lokala politiska kontexter, politiskt håll. Detta blev ett svår- I en ny rapport från Center for a samt svårigheter att kombinera startat projekt. Tidigare i år med- New American Security lyfter civila och militära komponenter – delade den amerikanske försvars- Dafna H Rand och Stephen Tankel eller frånvaro av civila komponenter. ministern att man efter de omfatt- fram ett antal lärdomar från för- Bland rekommendationerna finns ande urvalsprocesserna kunnat söken att utbilda olika sorters förslag om ökad aktörssamordning, stärkta civila bidrag, utvärderingar av resultat, samt tydligare priori- tering mellan kortsiktiga och lång- siktiga mål. Brister på samtliga dessa områden pekas ut som bi- dragande orsaker till de irakiska säkerhetsstyrkornas kollaps inför IS/Daesh. Försöken att bekämpa uppror och terrorism genom utbildning och stöd kan antas fortsätta. Militära utbildningsinsatser har ofta haft svaga eller oklara resultat. Foto: DoD, Brian Chaney. 5 Noterat USAs NATIONELLA MILITÄRA STRATEGI Under sommaren publicerades Risken för att USA dras in i mellan- de tre megatrenderna, kan antas USA:s nya nationella militära strat- statligt krig beskrivs som låg men göra att värdet av USA:s teknolog- egi. Dokumentet pekar ut globalis- ökande, och man möter större ut- iska försprång minskar. Landets ering, teknologispridning och demo- maningar, främst kopplade till globala ambitioner kvarstår, men grafiska skiften som särskilt viktiga Kina. Samtidigt blir blandningen utmanas alltmer. trender. Dessa möjliggör snabbare av mellanstatligt och ickestatligt i informationsspridning och organis- form av hybrid- ering, men kan också driva på konflikter en större sociala spänningar och konkurrens fråga. Denna utveck- om knappa resurser. Tre nationella ling, kombinerad med militära mål sätts upp: att avskräcka, avvisa eller besegra statliga mot- ståndare, att störa, försvaga eller be- segra våldsamma extremistorganis- ationer samt att stärka USA:s globala Globalisering och hybrid- nätverk av allierade och partners hot oroar Pentagon. genom stöd och samarbeten. Foto: David B Gleason. "I strategi är det viktigt att se på det VÄRLDENS avlägsna som om det var nära, och att HOTBILDER Klimatförändringarna är det se på det närliggande med distans." största hotet i världen – åtminstone enligt dess invånare. Detta
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