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Yulon Motor Downgraded to 'Twa-/Twa-2' on Higher Capital Spending and Low Car Sales; Outlook Stable

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Yulon Motor Downgraded to 'Twa-/Twa-2' on Higher Capital Spending and Low Car Sales; Outlook Stable Rating Research Service 信用評等資料庫 Media Release Yulon Motor Downgraded To 'twA-/twA-2' On Higher Capital Spending And Low Car Sales; Outlook Stable January 4, 2019 Overview PRIMARY CREDIT ANALYST − Yulon's higher capital spending on new model development for Luxgen branded cars is likely to push Jin Dong, CFA up the company's debt level in 2019 and 2020, and lift its ratio of debt to EBITDA above 3x. Taipei +886-2-8722-5821 − Shrinking sales of the Luxgen vehicles and the brand's increasingly vulnerable market position could jin.dong constrain the degree of sales recovery through the introduction of new models. @spglobal.com − We are therefore lowering our long-term issuer credit rating on Yulon to 'twA-' from 'twA' and the jin.dong short-term issuer credit rating to 'twA-2' from 'twA-1'. @taiwanratings.com.tw − The stable outlook is supported by significant and stable cash dividend from Yulon Nissan. The SECONDARY CREDIT ANALYST outlook also reflects Yulon Finance Corp.'s strong position in domestic auto finance and strong capitalization, which mitigate Yulon's higher business and financial risks. David Hsu Taipei Rating Action +886-2-8722-5828 david.hsu Taiwan Ratings Corp. today lowered its issuer credit ratings on Yulon Motor Co. Ltd. to 'twA-/twA-2' @spglobal.com david.hsu from 'twA/twA-1'. The outlook on the long-term rating is stable. @taiwanratings.com.tw Rationale The rating downgrade reflects elevated financial risk associated with the development of Yulon's Luxgen branded cars. We believe the high development cost will further push up Yulon's debt level over the next two to three years. Meanwhile, a moderate recovery in the company's operating cash flow through the sale of new models is unlikely to offset the impact of the increase in debt. This reflects our view that Luxgen's weakened brand image and shrinking operating scale constrains Yulon's capability to recover its sales scale substantially. Consequently, Yulon's ratio of debt to EBITDA is likely to exceed 3x on a consistent basis over the next two to three years. Yulon's decision to allow Taiwan-based Luxgen Motor Co. Ltd. (Luxgen Taiwan) to bear Luxgen's model development cost will increase Yulon's financial burden, compared with the previous practice of splitting the model development cost between Yulon and its Chinese partner, Dongfeng Motor Co. As Luxgen Taiwan is Yulon's fully owned subsidiary, Yulon alone will bear the full amount of the development cost and risks associated with lower-than-expected sales volume, including the write-off of intangible assets and insufficient return to cover the development costs. We project Luxgen Taiwan will pay Hua-chuang Automobile information Technical Center Co. Ltd. (HAITEC) New Taiwan dollar (NT$) 4.5 billion-NT$5 rrs.taiwanratings.com.tw billion in 2019 and NT$2 billion–NT$2.6 billion in 2020 to acquire two developed car models, which are planned to be launched in 2019 and 2020. Meanwhile, Luxgen's weakened brand image casts high uncertainty on meaningful sales recovery, particularly as the auto market cools down. An engine issue surrounding selected Luxgen models negatively impacted the brand's reputation and lowered consumer confidence in the brand over the past 12 months, resulting in an accelerated decline in unit sales over the period. The company's inferior R&D capability compared with that of global brands has also deterred buyer interest. We believe the Luxgen business could face greater challenge in reviving its sales because slowing economic growth and retreating consumer confidence is likely to hit the auto market in Taiwan and China over the next two years. Finally, the brand's small operating scale also constrains new model marketing and channel expenses, which can limit the degree of sales improvement. The stable outlook reflects our expectation that Luxgen could moderately improve its sales performance through introducing new models in 2019 and 2020. Meanwhile, sales of Nissan branded cars in Taiwan could moderately recover in 2019 following the launch of Kicks (a new SUV model) in November 2018. Furthermore, we expect Nissan's strong market position in China to continue to support the brand's sales volume at an elevated level over the next two years. We view Nissan's robust performance in China as the key factor behind Yulon Nissan's (Yulon's 50/40 joint venture with Nissan Motor) capability to provide stable and sizeable cash dividend to Yulon. These factors underpin our expectation of a moderate recovery in Yulon's EBITDA generation, which will help to maintain its ratio of debt to EBITDA below 4x over the next two years. The ratings on Yulon are also supported by the strong business position in Taiwan's auto finance and leasing industry of Yulon's financing arm, Yulon Finance Corp. (YFC), as well as its strong capitalization and prudent capital management. YFC's solid market position and lower financial risk partly offsets Yulon's higher business and financial risks, in our view. In addition, we believe Yulon's debt level will drop substantially under the sales income from the company's real estate development project in Xindian, New Taipei City, likely in around 2023. Our base-case scenario assumes the following: − Domestic auto sales to slightly decline by 2%-4% annually in 2018 and 2019 due to lower replacement demand following high car sales volume in the previous four years and a lukewarm economic outlook. − Passenger car sales in China to decline by 3%-5% in 2018 and 2019, as a result of weakening consumer confidence, slowing economic growth, and the recovery of the purchase tax to 10%. − Yulon's revenue to decline by 11%-13% in 2018 and recover by 8%-10% in 2019, reflecting sluggish Luxgen sales and a decline in Nissan car sales in Taiwan in 2018. The rebound in sales in 2019 reflects sales recovery in both branded cars from the introduction of new models. − Yulon's gross margin to decline slightly to 16.5%-17.5% over the next two years from 18.7% in 2017, reflecting margin pressure caused by lower sales volume for Nissan and Luxgen branded cars in Taiwan. Luxgen's restructuring and effective cost reduction in China could help to reduce such margin pressure over the same period. − Strong Nissan sales in China will continue to support Yulon's dividend income over the next one to two years. We assume at least 100% cash dividend payout for Yulon Nissan in 2018 and 2019. − Working capital outflow of NT$5 billion-NT$7 billion in 2018, including outflow related to Luxgen's sales and model development, as well as construction of the company's real estate development project in Xindian. We expect Yulon's working capital outflow to slightly decline to NT$2.5 billion- NT$3.5 billion 2019. − Yulon's capital expenditure of NT$3 billion-NT$4 billion in 2018 and NT$8 billion-NT$9 billion in 2019. The higher level in 2019 is mainly associated procurement of car model development asset from HAITEC. − Purchase of preferred stock issued by YFC in the amount of NT$1.8 billion-NT$1.9 billion in 2018. − Cash dividend payout of NT$912 million in 2018 and NT$550 million-NT$650 million in 2019. − Tax rate of 15%-17% in 2018 and 2019. rrs.taiwanratings.com.tw January 4, 2019 2 Based on these assumptions, we arrive at the following credit measures: − EBITDA margin of 7%-8.5% in 2018 and 2019. − Ratio of debt to EBITDA of 2.5x-2.9x in 2018 and 3x-3.6x in 2019. − Ratio of EBITDA interest coverage of 9x-11x in 2018 and 2019. Liquidity The short-term issuer credit rating is 'twA-2'. We believe that Yulon has adequate liquidity to meet its needs in the 12 months ending September 2019. Our view of the company's liquidity profile incorporates our assessment that the ratio of liquidity sources to liquidity uses will be 1.2x-1.25x and that liquidity sources will continue to exceed uses even if Yulon's EBTIDA were to decline by 15% over the period. It also reflects our view that the company has good banking relationship and a satisfactory standing in credit markets, evidenced by the issuance of corporate bonds at a low interest rate at the end of 2018. Yulon's debt does not carry any covenants. Principal Liquidity Sources − Cash and short-term investments: NT$26.8 billion at the end of September 2018. − Cash flow from operations: NT$4 billion-NT$5 billion in the 12 months ending September 2019. − Asset sales: NT$700 million-NT$900 million in the 12 months ending September 2019. Principal Liquidity Uses − Debt maturity: NT$18 billion-NT$19 billion in the 12 months ending September 2019. − Working capital outflow: NT$3 billion-NT$4 billion in the 12 months ending September 2019. − Maintenance capital expenditure: NT$3 billion-NT$4 billion in the 12 months ending September 2019. Outlook The stable outlook on Yulon Motor reflects our view that sales of Nissan-branded cars in Taiwan and Luxgen-branded cars could moderately recover after the launch of new car models, leading to a recovery in Yulon's EBITDA. Meanwhile, we believe strong and stable sales of Nissan-branded cars in China will continue to underpin Yulon Nissan's capability to contribute significant and stable cash dividend to Yulon. The stable outlook also reflects our view that YFC's strong capitalization and prudent capital management mitigates Yulon's higher financial risk associated with the Luxgen brand. In addition, sales from the Xindian real estate project could lower Yulon's debt level substantially in 2023.
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