30hr Childcare: Analysis of potential demand and sufficiency in Ealing. Summer 2016

Introduction: Calculating the number of eligible children in each Ward of the borough

The methodology utilised by the DfE to predict the number of eligible children in the borough cannot be replicated at Ward level (refer to page 14: Appendix 1 for DfE methodology) Therefore the calculations for the borough have been calculated utilising the most recent data at Ward level concerning the proportions of parents working, the estimates of 3& 4 year population and the number of those 4yr old ineligible as they are attending school.

The graph below illustrates the predicted lower and upper estimates for eligible 3&4 year olds for each Ward

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Executive Summary

The 30hr eligibility criteria related to employment, income and the number of children aged 4 years attending reception class (who are ineligible for the funding) makes it much more likely that eligible children will be located in Wards with higher levels of employment and income (potentially up to a joint household income of £199,998) and lower numbers of children aged 4years in reception class.

Although the 30hr. childcare programme may become an incentive to work in the future, in terms of the immediate capital bid, the data points to investment in areas which are quite different than the original proposal, which targeted the 5 wards within the Southall area. The 5 Southall Wards are estimated to have the fewest number of eligible children for the 30hr programme.

The top 5 Wards estimated to have the highest number of eligible children are amongst the least employment and income deprived Wards in Ealing with the lowest numbers of children affected by income deprivation.

Top 5 Wards estimated to have the highest Lowest 5 Wards estimated to have the fewest number of eligible children number of eligible children

Southfield Lady Margaret

Northfield Norwood Green

Walpole Dormers Wells

East Acton Southall Broadway

North Greenford Southall Green

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Methodology for estimating eligible children for 30hr places The methodology utilised by the DfE1 to predict the number of eligible children for 30hr places in the borough (1700) cannot be replicated at Ward level. Therefore the number of eligible children for 30hr places per Ward has been calculated utilising the following methodology: 1. We utilised Census Data ONS: LC1601EW - Family status by number of parents working by economic activity, to ascertain the % of all families in each Ward which best matched the 30hr.eligibility criteria (Couple families: both parents working; Lone parent family with parent working and couple families where 1 parent working and 1 parent sick or disabled)

2. We calculated the predicted total number of 3& 4 year olds by Ward utilising the ONS Mid-2014 Lower Layer Super Output Area population estimates.

3. We applied the % of eligible families to the 3& 4 population number to estimate the total number of eligible 3& 4 yr. olds per Ward.

4. We identified the current number of 4yr olds in infant class in primary schools by Ward by utilising the School Census data: 4yrolds attending reception (Summer 2016) and deducted this sum from estimated eligible 3& 4 yr. total as they would be ineligible.

5. This gave us the lower estimate of eligibility by Ward

6. We applied the % differential between the lower estimate and the DFE total estimate to attain the upper estimate per Ward Limitations to the methodology  Eligibility estimates should be treated as indicative, given that the main source of data regarding parents’ status is from the 2011 Census and the uncertainty regarding changes in population, employment & earnings since that date affecting levels of eligibility.  Ealing also has one of the highest levels of internal and external migration in the country and there are a number of employment/regeneration programmes within some of the target areas, which may also affect levels of eligibility. Sources:  Ealing eligible children for 30hour places by Ward Calculation table  Census Data ONS: LC1601EW - Family status by number of parents working by economic activity  ONS Mid-2014 Lower Layer Super Output Area population estimates.  School Census data: 4yrolds attending reception (Summer 2016)  DFE 30hr eligible estimate for the borough

1 Refer to Page 15 for DFE methodology Page 3 of 15

Calculation table LC1601EW - Family status by number of parents working by economic activity Census Data ONS Crown Copyright Reserved [from Nomis on 26 July 2016] Population : All parents aged 16 and over with dependent children Ward All Couple Lone Number of couple Total % of all Estimated % of all Number of 4 yr. Estimated Plus 30% categories family: parent families where 1 families 3& 4 families olds in infant number differential parents Both family: parent working and population classes in eligible 3 & 4 with DfE parents Parent 1 sick or disabled primary schools yr. olds estimate of working working 1700 Acton Central 3043 1238 345 16 1599 52.6 481 253 206 47 61 Cleveland 3286 1582 305 11 1898 57.8 409 236 161 75 97 Dormers Wells 3059 1102 249 36 1387 45.3 388 176 196 -20 -14 Ealing Broadway 2427 1230 171 13 1414 58.3 312 182 118 64 83 Ealing Common 2386 1146 209 7 1362 57.1 284 162 103 59 77 East Acton 3300 1122 429 13 1564 47.4 511 242 154 88 114 Elthorne 3107 1576 350 9 1935 62.3 471 293 219 74 96 Greenford Broadway 4124 1716 440 14 2170 52.6 652 343 277 66 86 Greenford Green 3380 1754 292 15 2061 60.1 477 287 225 62 81 Hanger Hill 3256 1450 201 17 1668 51.2 475 243 162 81 105 Hobbayne 3440 1748 375 18 2141 62.2 498 310 229 81 105 Lady Margaret 3074 1410 197 33 1640 53.4 339 181 176 5 6 Northfield 2964 1952 188 12 2152 72.6 411 298 153 145 188 North Greenford 3192 1664 281 19 1964 61.5 409 252 170 82 107 Northolt Mandeville 3547 1426 419 29 1874 52.8 528 279 223 56 73 Northolt West End 3683 1322 440 24 1786 48.5 543 263 241 22 29 Norwood Green 2867 1016 260 32 1308 45.6 382 174 175 -1 0 Perivale 3377 1572 298 28 1898 56.2 470 264 214 50 65 South Acton 2850 1100 302 15 1417 49.7 414 206 154 52 68 Southall Broadway 2885 898 215 41 1154 40 388 155 220 -65 -46 Southall Green 3228 1086 215 45 1346 41.7 500 209 289 -80 -56 Southfield 2757 1618 169 8 1795 65.1 405 267 87 180 234 Walpole 2762 1746 165 4 1915 69.3 414 287 153 134 174 71994 32474 6515 459 39448 10161 5562 4305 1257 1733

Lower Upper Estimate Estimate

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Identification of current sufficiency within Primary schools. Top 14 schools originally identified as at high Ranked by Ward with highest predicted number of eligible 3&4 year olds capacity

Ward Lower estimate Upper estimate Primary School % occupancy Planned places SPRING 2016 CENSUS eligible 3&4 yrs. eligible 3&4 yrs. 2015/16 PTE Southfield 180 234 Southfield Primary 84% 50 42 Northfield 145 188 Fielding Primary 99% 100 99 Little Ealing Primary 96% 78 75 Mount Carmel C Primary 94% 52 49

Walpole 134 174 No Schools East Acton 88 114 East Acton Primary 84% 50 42 John Perryn Primary 86% 50 43 North Greenford 82 107 Greenwood Primary 96% 50 48 Horsenden Primary 100% 100 100 Wood End Infant 94% 100 94

Mandeville School Hanger Hill 81 105 Holy Family C Primary 87% 60 52 Montpelier Primary 104% 50 52 St Gregory's C Primary 102% 50 51 West Twyford Primary 100% 50 50 Hobbayne 81 105 Brentside Primary 66% 50 33 Hobbayne Primary 138% 50 69 Mayfield Primary 86% 50 43 Cleveland 75 97 Drayton Green Primary 76% 50 38 Hathaway Primary 36% 50 18 North Ealing Primary 90% 100 90

Castlebar School Elthorne 74 96 Oaklands Primary 67% 100 67

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St John's Primary 64% 100 64 St Joseph's C Primary 96% 52 50 St Mark's Primary 100% 50 50 Greenford Broadway 66 86 Gifford Primary 121% 100 121 Our Lady of the Visitation C 92% Primary 52 48 Ravenor Primary 88% 50 44 Stanhope Primary 100% 50 50 Ealing Broadway 64 83 Christ the Saviour CE Primary 130% 50 65 Greenford Green 62 81 Coston Primary 86% 50 43 The Edward Bentham CE 96% Primary 50 48 Oldfield Primary 98% 50 49 Springhallow School

Ealing Common 59 77 Grange Primary 115% 60 69 Northolt Mandeville 56 73 Petts Hill 100% 50 50 Willow Tree 89% 100 89 South Acton 52 68 Ark Priory Primary Academy 98% 60 59 Berrymede Infant 80% 25 20 Perivale 50 65 Perivale Primary 100% 50 50 Selborne Primary 138% 50 69 St John Fisher C Primary 92% 52 48 Vicar's Green Primary 100% 50 50 Acton Central 47 61 Derwentwater Primary 37% 100 37 St Vincents C Primary 44% 52 23 West Acton Primary 80% 50 40

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Northolt West End 22 29 Alec Reed Academy 89% 100 69 Downe Manor Primary 85% 60 51 St Raphael's C Primary 94% 52 49 Viking Primary 102% 50 51 John Chilton School

Lady Margaret 5 6 Durdans Park Primary 90% 100 90 Lady Margaret Primary 110% 50 55 Norwood Green Dairy Meadow Primary 67% 100 67 Havelock Primary 80% 100 80 Khalsa Primary 100% 50 50 St.Anselm's C Primary 77% 52 40 St Mary's CE Primary

Three Bridges Primary 100% 52 52 Wolf Fields Primary 52% 100 52 Dormers Wells Allenby Primary 98% 50 49 Dormers Wells Infant 89% 100 89 North Primary

Southall Broadway Beaconsfield Primary 100% 50 50 Blair Peach Primary 100% 100 100 Hamborough Primary 99% 100 99 Tudor Primary 100% 50 50 Southall Green Clifton Primary 96% 50 48 Featherstone Primary 87% 100 87

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Impact of the underpinning 30hr eligibility criteria on residents’ likelihood of eligibility for the scheme

Distribution of 3& 4 year olds across the Wards Number Number Total The table and map rank by overall number the distribution of 3& 4 year olds across the Ward 3yrs 4rs 3&4s Wards in the borough. Greenford Broadway 325 327 652 In terms of those Wards with the predicted higher numbers of eligible children, Southfield, Northolt West End 255 288 543 279 249 528 Northfield, Walpole and North Greenford sit below the Ealing Ward average of 441. Northolt Mandeville East Acton 258 253 511 Hanger Hill, Hobbayne and East Acton sit above the average Southall Green 260 240 500 Hobbayne 242 256 498 Acton Central 231 250 481 Greenford Green 263 214 477 Hanger Hill 255 220 475 Elthorne 244 227 471 Perivale 221 249 470 South Acton 213 201 414 Walpole 221 193 414 Northfield 201 210 411 Cleveland 197 212 409 North Greenford 212 197 409 Southfield 210 195 405 Dormers Wells 205 183 388 Southall Broadway 211 177 388 Norwood Green 203 179 382 Lady Margaret 174 165 339 Ealing Broadway 162 150 312 Ealing Common 141 143 284 5183 4978 10161

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Impact of the underpinning 30hr eligibility criteria on residents’ likelihood of eligibility for the scheme

Number of children aged 4 years attending reception class Ward Number of pupils The table and map rank by overall number the distribution of the number of 4 year olds aged 4 yrs. attending attending reception class in schools across the Wards in the borough. reception Summer These children will be ineligible for the additional 15 hours childcare scheme 2016 In terms of those Wards with the predicted higher numbers of eligible children, Southfield, Southall Green 289 Northfield, Walpole, East Acton, Hanger Hill and North Greenford sit below the Ealing Ward Greenford Broadway 277 average of 187. Only Hobbayne Ward sits above the average Northolt West End 241 Hobbayne 229 Greenford Green 225 Northolt Mandeville 223 Southall Broadway 220 Elthorne 219 Perivale 214 Acton Central 206 Dormers Wells 196 Ealing Average 187 Lady Margaret 176 Norwood Green 175 Northfield 170 Hanger Hill 162 Cleveland 161 East Acton 154 South Acton 154 North Greenford 153 Walpole 153 Ealing Broadway 118 Ealing Common 103 Southfield 87 Page 10 of 15

Impact of the underpinning 30hr eligibility criteria on residents’ likelihood of eligibility for the scheme

Employment Status: A key criteria for eligibility Employment Domain Rankings: IMD 2015 The table and map indicate the relative employment deprivation across the Wards in the Ealing Ward Rank within Rank in Rank in borough. Ealing London England Northolt West End 1 72 1,110 In terms of those Wards with the predicted higher numbers of eligible children, Southfield, Norwood Green 2 98 1,343 Northfield & Hanger Hill sit within the 20% least deprived (employment) in England. Walpole South Acton 3 114 1,472 within the 20% least deprived (employment) in Ealing. North Greenford just sits outside this Dormers Wells 4 131 1,554 group. Hobbayne is middle ranking, with East Acton ranked 9/23 Southall Green 5 146 1,664 Greenford Broadway 6 158 1,738 Southall Broadway 7 203 2,061 Northolt Mandeville 8 216 2,155 East Acton 9 223 2,224 Acton Central 9 223 2,224 Hobbayne 11 250 2,413 Cleveland 12 261 2,481 Elthorne 13 283 2,619 Lady Margaret 14 310 2,843 Ealing Common 15 389 3,560 Perivale 16 418 4,022 Greenford Green 17 425 4,142 North Greenford 18 478 4.801 Southfield 19 486 4,858 Walpole 20 496 5,006 Ealing Broadway 21 521 5,385 Hanger Hill 22 562 6,028 Northfield 23 588 6,497 Total Wards 23 654 7,529 *1 = most deprived Wards amongst the 20% most deprived (Employment) Wards amongst the 20% least deprived (Employment)

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Impact of the underpinning 30hr eligibility criteria on residents’ likelihood of eligibility for the scheme

Income Domain Rankings: IMD 2015 Income Status: A key criteria for eligibility Ealing Ward Rank within Rank in Rank in The table and map indicate the relative employment deprivation across the Wards in the Ealing London England borough. The ranking of the Wards is the same as for the Employment Domain. Northolt West End 1 73 578 Southfield, Northfield, Walpole & Hanger Hill sit within the 20% least deprived (income) in Norwood Green 2 101 705 South Acton 2 101 705 the borough. North Greenford just sits outside this group Dormers Wells 4 137 928 Hobbayne is middle ranking, with East Acton ranked 9/23 Southall Green 5 166 1,051 Norwood Green, Dormers Wells, Southall Green & Southall Broadway sit with 20% most Greenford Broadway 6 172 1,071 deprived in England (income) Southall Broadway 7 184 1,129 Northolt Mandeville 8 189 1,162 East Acton 9 201 1,195 Acton Central 9 241 1,453 Hobbayne 11 264 1,593 Cleveland 12 269 1,626 Elthorne 13 280 1,714 Lady Margaret 14 343 2,210 Ealing Common 15 415 2,777 Perivale 16 416 2,806 Greenford Green 17 424 2,939 North Greenford 18 438 3,119 Southfield 19 479 3,841 Walpole 20 481 3,877 Ealing Broadway 21 496 4,064 Hanger Hill 22 508 4,064 Northfield 23 584 4,265 Total Wards 23 654 5,684 *1 = most deprived Wards amongst the 20% most deprived (Income) Wards amongst the 20% least deprived (Income)

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Impact of the underpinning 30hr eligibility criteria on residents’ likelihood of eligibility for the scheme

Income Deprivation affecting Children (IDACI 2015) Income Domain Rankings: IMD 2015 The table and map indicate the relative income deprivation affecting children across the Ealing Ward Rank within Rank in Rank in Wards in the borough. Ealing London England Southfield, Northfield, Walpole & Hanger Hill sit within the 20% least deprived (IDACI) in the East Acton 1 83 417 Northolt West End 2 126 598 borough. North Greenford just sits outside this group South Acton 3 139 682 Hobbayne is middle ranking, with East Acton ranked the highest rate of IDACI Norwood Green 4 177 862 Northolt Mandeville 5 191 943 Greenford Broadway 6 221 1,092 Southall Green 7 233 1,168 Acton Central 8 251 1,237 Dormers Wells 9 269 1,360 Cleveland 10 309 1,661 Elthorne 10 309 1,661 Southall Broadway 12 320 1,743 Hobbayne 13 329 1,797 Lady Margaret 14 389 2,312 Ealing Common 15 404 2,437 Perivale 16 416 2,607 Greenford Green 17 431 2,769 North Greenford 18 463 3,170 Southfield 19 472 3,325 Ealing Broadway 20 488 3,569 Hanger Hill 21 491 3,594 Walpole 22 515 4,072 Northfield 23 575 5,196 Total Wards 23 654 7,529 *1 = most deprived Wards amongst the 20% most deprived (Employment) Wards amongst the 20% least deprived (Employment)

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Impact of the underpinning 30hr eligibility criteria on residents’ likelihood of eligibility for the scheme

Household income distribution across 4 income bands The graph and table below illustrate the distribution of average household income across 4 income bands for the 5 highest average income and 5 lowest average income Wards in the borough. This is for all households, with 7 without dependent children. The graph shows that at the £12-25K band a higher proportion of the lowest average income Ward. The greatest convergence of the 10Wards is at the £25k-£50K band and after that a much greater divergence between the highest and lowest income Wards. To attain the greatest parity across the Wards the 30hr childcare programme should have set the upper household income threshold at £ 50K. The extension beyond has significantly increased the eligibility to households with higher incomes.

% ward % ward %ward %ward £12K- £25k- £50k- Area Name £75-100k £25K £50K £75k Dormers Wells 5.7% 3.8% 2.0% 1.8% East Acton 5.6% 6.0% 5.9% 5.8% Lady Margaret 4.9% 4.3% 2.8% 2.4% North Greenford 4.5% 4.8% 4.1% 3.9% Northfield 2.5% 3.8% 5.8% 6.2% Norwood Green 5.2% 3.7% 2.4% 2.2% Southall Broadway 5.9% 3.8% 1.7% 1.4% Southall Green 6.4% 4.3% 2.0% 1.8% Southfield 2.3% 3.8% 6.2% 6.7% Walpole 2.4% 3.7% 5.9% 6.3%

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Appendix: 1 Infographic of DfE calculation process estimating eligibility for 30hr childcare for LAs

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