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Tracking Clean Energy Progress Tracking Clean Energy Progress Energy Technology Perspectives 2012 excerpt as IEA input to the Clean Energy Ministerial Energy Technology Perspectives 2012 Pathways to a Clean Energy System Global demand for energy shows no signs of slowing; carbon dioxide emissions keep surging to new records; and political uprisings, natural disasters and volatile energy markets put the security of energy supplies to the test. More than ever, the need for a fundamental shift to a cleaner and more reliable energy system is clear. What technologies can make that transition happen? How do they work? And how much will it all cost? The 2012 edition of Energy Technology Perspectives (ETP), to be released in June, answers these and other fundamental questions. Its up-to-date analysis, data and associated website are an indispensible resource for energy technology and policy professionals in the public and private sectors. www.iea.org/etp ETP 2012 is the International Energy Agency’s most Visit our new website for ambitious and comprehensive publication on new interactive tools and more energy technology developments. It demonstrates extensive data coverage how technologies – from electric vehicles to wind farms – can make a decisive difference in achieving the internationally agreed objective of limiting global temperature rise to 2°C above pre-industrial levels. It also provides guidance for decision makers on how to reshape current energy trends to build a clean, secure and competitive energy future. Tracking Clean Energy Progress Energy Technology Perspectives 2012 excerpt as IEA input to the Clean Energy Ministerial INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY The International Energy Agency (IEA), an autonomous agency, was established in November 1974. Its primary mandate was – and is – two-fold: to promote energy security amongst its member countries through collective response to physical disruptions in oil supply, and provide authoritative research and analysis on ways to ensure reliable, affordable and clean energy for its 28 member countries and beyond. The IEA carries out a comprehensive programme of energy co-operation among its member countries, each of which is obliged to hold oil stocks equivalent to 90 days of its net imports. The Agency’s aims include the following objectives: Secure member countries’ access to reliable and ample supplies of all forms of energy; in particular, through maintaining effective emergency response capabilities in case of oil supply disruptions. Promote sustainable energy policies that spur economic growth and environmental protection in a global context – particularly in terms of reducing greenhouse-gas emissions that contribute to climate change. Improve transparency of international markets through collection and analysis of energy data. Support global collaboration on energy technology to secure future energy supplies and mitigate their environmental impact, including through improved energy effi ciency and development and deployment of low-carbon technologies. Find solutions to global energy challenges through engagement and dialogue with non-member countries, industry, international organisations and other stakeholders. IEA member countries: Australia Austria Belgium Canada Czech Republic Denmark Finland France Germany Greece Hungary Ireland Italy Japan Korea (Republic of) Luxembourg Netherlands New Zealand Norway Poland Portugal Slovak Republic © OECD/IEA, 2012 Spain International Energy Agency Sweden 9 rue de la Fédération Switzerland 75739 Paris Cedex 15, France Turkey www.iea.org United Kingdom Please note that this publication United States is subject to speci c restrictions that limit its use and distribution. The European Commission The terms and conditions are available also participates in online at www.iea.org/about/copyright.asp the work of the IEA. Introduction Table of Contents 3 Table of Contents Introduction Acknowledgements 4 Key Findings 5 Recommendations for Energy Ministers 7 Part 1 Tracking Clean Energy Progress 13 Power Generation 16 Industry 32 Buildings 37 Transport 44 Carbon Capture and Storage 56 Part 2 Financing the Clean Energy Revolution 61 Low-Carbon Energy Investments to 2020 61 Benefits of a Low-Carbon Energy Sector 63 Unlocking Trillions from Institutional Investors 64 Understanding Investment Risks 66 Mechanisms and Financing Vehicles to Leverage Private Investment 67 Green or Climate Bonds 68 Annex 71 Acronyms, Abbreviations and Units 71 Technology Overview Notes 74 References 76 4 Introduction Acknowledgements Acknowledgements This publication was prepared by the International Energy Agency’s Directorate of Sustainable Energy Policy and Technology, under the leadership of Bo Diczfalusy, and in co-operation with other divisions of the Agency. Markus Wråke is the project leader of Energy Technology Perspectives 2012. Antonia Gawel co-ordinated and is lead author of this report, with drafting and analytical input from a number of IEA colleagues. Cecilia Tam is lead author of the finance section and Kevin Breen provided significant data and analytical support. The authors would like to thank Bo Diczfalusy, Paolo Frankl, Lew Fulton, Rebecca Gaghen, Robert Tromop and Markus Wråke for their guidance and for co-ordinating input from their respective teams. The following colleagues and experts also provided data, ideas and/ or substantive inputs to sections of the report: Davide D’Ambrosio, Luis Munuera, Sara Pasquier, Vida Rozite, Yamina Saheb, Nathalie Trudeau, Hirohisa Yamada on buildings and industry; Justine Garrett, Sean McCoy, Juho Lipponen on carbon capture and storage (CCS); Henri Paillere (OECD Nuclear Energy Association) on nuclear energy; Milou Beerepoot, Adam Brown, Zuzana Dobrotkova, Ada Marmion, Simon Muller on renewable energy; Keith Burnard, Osamu Ito and Colin Henderson (IEA Clean Coal Centre) on coal; Anselm Eisentraut and Michael Waldron on biofuels; François Cuenot, Lew Fulton and Tali Trigg on vehicle efficiency and electric vehicles; Uwe Remme on modelling data and analysis; David Elzinga and Steve Heinen on electricity transmission and distribution analysis; Joana Chiavari on policy; Karen Treanton on research, development and demonstration spending data; Christopher Kaminker (OECD), Sean Kidney (Climate Bond Initiative), Tom Murley (HG Capital) for the finance section; Davide D’Ambrosio on report design and data visualisation. Many thanks are due to the statisticians and national policy experts that provided data, input and comments. The following experts provided helpful review to drafts of this report: Tor Kartevold (Statoil); Tom Kerr (World Economic Forum); Atsushi Kurosawa (Institute of Applied Energy, Japan); Rick Duke, Robert Marlay, John Peterson, Graham Pugh, John Larsen, Christie Ulman, Craig Zamuda (Department of Energy, United States); Chris Barton, Terry Carrington, Paul Chambers (Department of Energy & Climate Change, United Kingdom); Yuhji Matsuo (Institute of Electrical Engineers of Japan); Dr. John Cheng (CLP). In addition, the IEA Experts Group on R&D Priority Setting and Evaluation provided useful input to the report analytical framework. This report would not have been possible without the voluntary contributions from the United States and the United Kingdom. Jane Barbière, Muriel Custodio, Astrid Dumond, Bertrand Sadin, Marilyn Smith and Cheryl Haines of the IEA Communications and Information Office helped to review, edit, format and produce this report. Kristin Hunter and Felicia Day provided editorial input. Catherine Smith and Annette Hardcastle provided administrative support. Introduction Key Findings 5 Key Findings Recent environmental, economic and energy security trends point to major challenges: energy related CO2 emissions are at an historic high, the global economy remains in a fragile state, and energy demand continues to rise. The past two years (2010 and 2011) also saw the Deepwater Horizon oil spill off the Gulf of Mexico, the Fukushima nuclear accident in Japan, and the Arab Spring, which led to oil supply disruptions from North Africa. Taken together, these trends and events emphasise the need to rethink our global energy system. Whether the priority is to ensure energy security, rebuild national and regional economies, or address climate change and local pollution, the accelerated transition towards a lower-carbon energy system offers opportunities in all of these areas. The Energy Technology Perspectives 2012 2OC Scenario (ETP 2DS)1 highlights that achieving this transition is technically feasible, if timely and significant government policy action is taken, and a range of clean energy technologies are developed and deployed globally. Based on current trends, are we on track to achieving this transition? Are clean energy technologies being deployed quickly enough? Are emerging technologies making the necessary progress to play an important role in the future energy mix? These are the key questions addressed in this report. In summary, the following analysis finds that a few clean energy technologies are currently on track to meet the 2DS objectives. Cost reductions over the past decade and significant annual growth rates have been seen for onshore wind (27%) and solar photo-voltaic (PV) (42%). This is positive, but maintaining this progress will be challenging. Government targets for electric vehicles stock (20 million by 2020) are ambitious, as are continued government nuclear expansion plans in many countries, in both of these cases, significant public and private sector efforts will be necessary to translate plans
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