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A New Zealand Perspective Paul Zuckerman Fletcher Building

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A New Zealand Perspective Paul Zuckerman Fletcher Building CREATING OPPORTUNITIES IN CHALLENGING TIMES - A New Zealand Perspective Paul Zuckerman Fletcher Building - Steel Division FBL Steel Division – September 2008 1 Disclaimer This presentation contains not only a review of operations, but also some forward looking statements about Fletcher Building and the environment in which the company operates. Because these statements are forward looking, Fletcher Building’s actual results could differ materially. Media releases, management commentary and analysts presentations, including those relating to the June 2008 full year results, are all available on the company’s website and contain additional information about matters which could cause Fletcher Building’s performance to differ from any forward looking statements in this presentation. Please read this presentation in the wider context of material previously published by Fletcher Building. FBL Steel Division – September 2008 Can we apply learnings from NZ across into Australia? FBL Steel Division – September 2008 Key Topics to be Discussed • New Zealand is already in a recession and facing a downturn in traditional steel consuming markets. Where is Australia heading? • Opportunities exist for building suppliers to shift their focus to segments where investment remains strong. • A number of market factors are in flux, creating challenges and opportunities. FBL Steel Division – September 2008 3 NZ steel consumption has risen steadily MAIN SEGMENTS 1,200,000 20,000 • Residential Construction 18,000 1,000,000 • Commercial/Industrial 16,000 800,000 • Manufacturing Sector 14,000 • Heavy Buildings 600,000 12,000 (GFCF $m) (GFCF Consumption (tonnes) Consumption • Infrastructure and 10,000 400,000 Engineering 8,000 • Rural and Specialty 200,000 6,000 0 4,000 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 NZ Consumption (tonnes) Total Real Gross Fixed Capital Formation (annual running total $m) FBL Steel Division – September 2008 4 A brief history of steelmaking in New Zealand Pacific Steel Group, Auckland - EAF New Zealand Steel, Glenbrook – Integrated Steelworks • Ingot casting started in 1962. 3 strand ROKOP concaster installed 1979 • Commenced in 1968 processing imported coil on a galvanising line • Wire mill operations also commenced in 1962 as GKN • Pioneering ironsand based steel making facilities • 2nd hand Lamberton cross-country rolling mill installed added in the 1970’s 1962 • Owned by the NZ government in 1980’s • New Krupp 50 tonne EAF installed 1972 • 110MW cogeneration capacity added in 1998 • Price control removed 1985, but briefly continued for NZS • In the 1990’s, BHP takes control of the facility • 42% owned by NZ Steel in 1986, who then supplied some • Now positioned to realise its competitive advantage billet based on its unique process under BSL ownership. • Sims scrap JV commenced December 1992 on adjacent site with the existing Fletcher shredder • New Danieli rod & bar mill installed 1997 Fletcher Steel Engineering Company , Wellington, 1965. View looking west toward airport and city. Quarantine facility is on Somes Island in centre FBL Steel Division – September 2008 5 The NZ residential market is roughly the size of WA • Housing activity is currently depressed (around 20,000 starts) with modest price declines Other 12% • Pressed and stone coated steel tiles service 1/4 of the roofing market Longrun Steel 39% Concrete 24% • Sector revenue is estimated at ~NZ$180m • Estimated 30,000 steel tonnes Tile Steel • Many rollformers, 3 with national presence 25% • Concrete tiles are a less significant roofing product in New Zealand than in Australia. FBL Steel Division – September 2008 6 A forecast drop in residential activity is becoming reality 35,000 30 Forecast 25 30,000 Consents (LH scale) 20 25,000 15 20,000 New Zealand’s first State House at Miramar in Wellington. Built by the Fletcher Construction 10 Company in 1937. 15,000 5 10,000 0 5,000 Nominal House Price % Change (RH scale) -5 0 -10 F83 F84 F85 F86 F87 F88 F89 F90 F91 F92 F93 F94 F95 F96 F97 F98 F99 F00 F01 F02 F03 F04 F05 F06 F07 F08 F09 F10 F11 F12 F13 New house built by Fletcher Residential in Auckland, 2007 Source: Infometrics FBL Steel Division – September 2008 7 The NZ commercial & industrial building market • Very strong steel share • Membranes are more significant than in the residential sector Delegat's winery, Blenheim • Sector revenue is estimated at ~NZ$220m • Estimated 75,000 steel tonnes Other 12% Concrete 4% Tile Steel 4% Longrun Steel Roofing 80% FBL Steel Division – September 2008 8 9 Source: Infometrics Source: 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000 FBL Steel Division –FBL September 2008 Commercial building activity is Mar 00Jun 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Sep Dec Mar Jun formation ($m) capital Gross fixed -96prices. at1995 activity Non-residential Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Forecast Dec Mar Jun Sep forecasttosoftenas well Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar 88 metre long Dimond sheets, Palmerston North 2008. North Palmerston sheets, Dimond long 88 metre until 1979. until casting ingot housed building This in 1962. Steel Pacific cladding at steel plant Installing Manufacturing has moved off shore and spending is down 7% 0.90 Forecast 6% 0.80 • GDP and FX rate are fundamental drivers. 5% 0.70 4% 0.60 • Circa 300,000 tonnes are 3% 0.50 consumed: flat, merchant, special US$ FX steels, etc Percent 2% 0.40 1% 0.30 • There has been some migration of 0% 0.20 manufacturing to non-OECD 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 countries. An example is Fisher and -1% 0.10 Paykel to Thailand -2% 0.00 Real GDP Change March Year (precent) US$:NZ$ Exchange Rate • A slump in profitability heralds a potential sharp pull-back in capex Source: Infometrics FBL Steel Division – September 2008 10 11 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000 FBL Steel Division –FBL September 2008 Heavy constructionprojects co Mar 00Jun 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Residential Non Mar Jun Activity at 1995-1996 prices. Gross fixed capital formation ($m) formation capital fixed Gross prices. 1995-1996 at Activity Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec A Mar ll OtherResidential Non Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Auckland Hospital extension Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Forecast Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar ntinue toholdupthe market • Solid backlogof privateandGovernment • Stadia • 300,000tonnesconsumptionp.a., Circa • GDP growth wentintonegativeterritory work - hospitals, education, prisons, etc. Dunedin Park, AMIChristchurch,Carisbrook structural sections,andbeams principally reinforcing, merchant bar, began inQ2 in Q12008,butgenuinerecession likely : RugbyWorldCupin2011:Eden Wellington Hospital Large scale infrastructure and engineering projects continue • Fueled by government spending • Significant participants are Downer, Fletchers, Mainzeal, and Multiplex • Serviced by large regional fabricators • Steel usage of 150,000+ tonnes per annum • Upgrades to Transportation - Manukau harbour crossing, New Lynn railway, Waterview trench, Tauranga Harbour link, Victoria Park • Development of Power Generation – Windfarms and geothermal • Resource Movement – Water, Oil and Natural Gas infrastructure FBL Steel Division – September 2008 Investment in power generation is forecast to be strong • 3% of NZ’s electricity is from wind but its share is growing fast • 20% effective capacity share in Denmark, which is less windy • Medium term expectation for wind is for vicinity 1200 MW, which would consume about 25,000 tonnes of steel just in the foundations • Makara farm is 62 turbines for total 140 MW • Typically EU-made blades, gears and generator. Rolled tower sections are 12mm to 30mm G300 plate. • Current max scale is 100m rotor with 5MW generator 48 tonnes of steel in each 15m base of the 112m high Makara turbines FBL Steel Division – September 2008 13 Commodity prices have risen sharply, generating wealth 240 220 200 World prices Last 12 mths, Total +11.6% yoy 180 (Aluminium 11%, Meat/Skins +19%, Dairy +2%, Horticulture 4%, Forestry -12%, Seafood +25%) Average NZ commodity price converted to NZD 160 Average world price of NZ commodities 140 120 100 14 80 FBL Steel Division – September 2008 Jan-86 Jan-87 Jan-88 Jan-89 Jan-90 Jan-91 Jan-92 Jan-93 Jan-94 Jan-95 Jan-96 Jan-97 Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Dairy farming and exports have “milked” large profits 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 Milk Solid Price (c/kg) - May years (MAF forecast) 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 Source: Infometrics 1997 1998 1999 Manufactured20 0Cow0 Price (c/kg) - June years (MAF forecast) 15 2001 • Sound fundamentals in rural commodities 2002 FBL Steel Division – September 2008 2003 2004 over the last few years with a strong 2005 2006 outlook. NZ has comparative advantage in 2007 rural, and declining NZD is an added boost 2008 2009 • Significant investment 2010 2011 2012 contributes NZ$10b in export receipts. • In Southland, dairy farm profit before tax increased six-fold in 2007/08. • Average farm has $1.5m gross income and $460k surplus from 195k kg of solids. in dairy production. It New Zealand’s ETS is likely to become reality • NZ ratified the Kyoto Protocol in Dec 2002. Its emissions in 2008 to 2012 to be no more than five times its 1990 emission level • NZ is 73 mt of CO2 equivalents for 0.2% of world.
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