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Representing Artificial Intelligence in Wargames Connections 2020 Conference Working Group 2 Proceedings December 2020

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Representing Artificial Intelligence in Wargames Connections 2020 Conference Working Group 2 Proceedings December 2020 Representing Artificial Intelligence in Wargames Connections 2020 Conference Working Group 2 Proceedings December 2020 Chairs ED McGrady, Justin Peachey Contributors ED McGrady Dennis J. Rensel Kristan J. Wheaton Megan Hennessey Abram Trosky Joseph Saur Jeremy Sepinsky John T. Hanley 1 Table of Contents Introduction .................................................................................................................................................. 3 Approach ............................................................................................................................................. 3 High Level Takeaways ......................................................................................................................... 4 Organization of this Report ................................................................................................................. 4 Speculative Games, Technology, and Necessary Fantasy: ED McGrady, Ph.D. ............................................ 6 What are speculative games? ............................................................................................................. 6 Why don’t we do more speculative games? ....................................................................................... 6 Why should we run speculative games? ............................................................................................. 9 So how does all this relate to technology? ....................................................................................... 10 Any answers? .................................................................................................................................... 11 Building Speculative Games: ED McGrady, Ph.D. ....................................................................................... 12 Technology and scenarios ................................................................................................................. 12 Gaming artificial intelligence ............................................................................................................ 21 Concluding comment ........................................................................................................................ 24 Artificial Intelligence – A Wargame Asset: Dennis J. Rensel ....................................................................... 25 Executive Summary ........................................................................................................................... 25 Artificial Intelligence – A Wargame Asset ......................................................................................... 26 Bibliography ...................................................................................................................................... 41 Making the Case for a Bigger, Better Widget: Kristan J. Wheaton, Megan Hennessey, Abram Trosky ..... 44 What are argumentation mechanics? .............................................................................................. 44 What other games use argumentation mechanics? ......................................................................... 44 Can you show how argumentation mechanics work in a real game? .............................................. 45 How might this mechanic be useful in modelling speculative technologies? .................................. 50 What are some of the limits to argumentation mechanics? ............................................................ 50 What’s the final word on argumentation mechanics and speculative technologies in wargames? 51 New Technologies in Wargames: Joseph Saur............................................................................................ 52 Modeling Artificial Intelligence in Wargames: Human in the Box: Jeremy Sepinsky, Ph.D. ....................... 53 Introduction ...................................................................................................................................... 53 AI in the DoD ..................................................................................................................................... 54 Human in the Box: Mechanics .......................................................................................................... 54 Human in the Box: Tradeoffs ............................................................................................................ 57 Conclusions ....................................................................................................................................... 58 Games, Game Theory, and Artificial Intelligence: John T. Hanley, Jr. Ph.D. ............................................... 59 Abstract ............................................................................................................................................. 59 Introduction ...................................................................................................................................... 59 A game theory primer for gamers .................................................................................................... 61 Game-theoretic forms....................................................................................................................... 63 Experimenting with games and results ............................................................................................. 68 Artificial Intelligence ......................................................................................................................... 72 Summary of experimental results ..................................................................................................... 74 So, what to do? ................................................................................................................................. 75 References ........................................................................................................................................ 77 2 Introduction What effects will AI or other advanced technologies have on how we fight? New technologies are notoriously hard to incorporate into existing military operational concepts. Some change nothing, others change everything. How to identify the holistic effects of technologies like AI or other advanced technologies is a task is well suited to wargaming. After all, wargamers often consider the far flung future and provide a possible universe for study. As noted by multiple authors1,2, the lack of actual technology did not prevent study of future technologies in the InterWar period. AI, however, may represent a significant challenge to game design. Is AI fundamentally different from other types of technologies, in that it speaks to the very heart of what games address: decision-making? If AI is making the decisions, what are the players contributing? Perhaps the most challenging part of representing AI when compared to previous technological breakthroughs may be the ability of the AI to surprise human decision makers3. While AI systems are making decisions, they are not making human decisions. They are using different means to arrive at answers that may differ significantly from human decisions. This ability to change the underlying narrative of decision-making is a significant challenge that AI presents to modern game designers. Approach Because we find increasing need to represent artificial intelligence and emerging technologies in wargames, this working group set out to identify and understand the challenges associated with doing so. Our goal was to both frame the problem and describe potential solutions. Working group participants were asked to develop methods to address advanced technologies in games. Proposed methods included each of the following approaches. ● Abstraction: Game adjudicators don’t know how a new technology will work, so +2 to all relevant die rolls. ● Simulation: Adjudicators believe that the new technology will work in a specific manner, players may use the technology in that manner. ● Player: Adjudicators ask players to define how the technology may work. ● Subject matter expert: Adjudicators rely on Subject Matter Experts to define how the new technology may work. ● Mechanics: Adjudicators rely on game mechanics that abstract and channelize play (e.g. matrix games or mechanics like chit pulls, randomization, and other board game mechanics) ● Role player: Adjudicators rely on players to act as if they were the new technology, e.g., players fill the role of an artificial intelligence. Participants in the working group were asked to consider how each of these or other approaches may be included in the game. To do so, participants submitted papers to a Google Drive and were involved in 1 Nofi, Albert A., "HM 18: To Train the Fleet for War: The U.S. Navy Fleet Problems, 1923-1940" (2010). Historical Monographs. 18. 2 McCue, Brian. 2005. Wotan’s Workshop: Military Experiments Before WWII. CNA. D0013347.A1. 3 Ilachinski, Andrew. 2017. AI, Robots, and Swarms Issues, Questions, and Recommended Studies. CNA. DRM- 2017-U-014796-Final. 3 discussion in an associated Google Group. Prior to the conference, participants collaborated to improve each of the papers and provide feedback on topics for further study. During a workshop held virtually at Connections 2020, three members of the working group presented interim results to attendees for feedback. During the discussion, participants summarized three approaches to addressing AI use in a wargame: 1. Model the AI. This
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