1 From mountain to sea Banff and Buchan / Banff and Macduff Overview August 2017 Craig Watson Council & Partnership Analyst Policy, Performance & Improvement Customer Communication & Improvement Business Services 2 Contents Heading Page No. Executive Summary 3 Aberdeenshire Profile 6 Aberdeenshire Demographics Overview 7 Buchan Overview 8 Economy 11 Poverty 23 Education & Skills 28 Health 38 Housing 42 Transport & Access 46 Crime 50 Aberchirder and Whitehills Overview 57 Banff Overview 58 Gardenstown and King Edward Overview 59 Macduff Overview 60 Portsoy, Fordyce and Cornhill Overview 61 Sources 62 3 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Most economic indicators pertaining to the north east corner of Aberdeenshire align more closely with the Scottish average than with the rest of Aberdeenshire, although in many instances the differences are not particularly stark. Aberdeenshire, alongside Aberdeen City, forms one of the most prosperous regions in the country, despite the fall in the price of oil. Skills Development Scotland provides that the region’s economy will continue to grow through 2024, at the 3rd highest rate in the country. The jobs market in the Banff and Buchan region is prima facie less positive than is currently the case in Aberdeenshire. This is evidenced by the fact that, as at March 2017, the economic activity rate in Banff and Buchan is 5.5% lower than Aberdeenshire’s equivalent rate (77.4% versus 82.9%). Approximately 11,200 people aged 16-64 in the Banff and Buchan region are economically inactive (22.6% of the working age population). Of these, approximately 31.4% (or 3,500 people) are categorised as “long-term sick”, which is considerably higher than Aberdeenshire’s corresponding rate (23%). Indeed, Banff and Buchan’s rate is high enough to place it in the UK’s top quartile. This may have implications for health and social care services in the local area. Despite the 13% increase in the number of active enterprises in the Banff and Buchan region between 2010 and 2015, it is lower than the proportional increase experienced by the wider Aberdeen City & Shire area over the same period (21%). A number of reasons could account for the disparity, with local development planning and the commercialisation of certain zones elsewhere in the region the most likely explanation. How much the Energetica corridor boosted the enterprise count in the north east corner of Aberdeenshire is impossible to say but it is likely to have had at least some positive effect. Looking forward, whilst conditions remain challenging for North Sea oil & gas producers, there are indications that companies believe they are approaching the bottom of the cycle, and that business confidence is starting to slowly increase. This may indicate that the sector will see an improved outlook in 2017, which should in turn benefit overall economic growth, both for the North East region and Scotland as a whole. The consequences of Brexit may have a disproportionate effect on the wider Banff and Buchan area given the comparatively high number of overseas nationals (i.e. Eastern Europeans) living and working in the region. This is possibly more likely to affect Fraserburgh than either Banff or Macduff. 4 Given that the oil and gas industry is important to the Aberdeenshire economy, a statistically significant inverse relationship exists between the price of oil and the number of people claiming Job Seekers’ Allowance (JSA). That is to say, generally speaking, when the price of oil declines, the number of people claiming JSA in the subsequent period increases. A simple formula developed for this report suggests movements in the JSA count could be predicted over a 3-month period with a 66% degree of accuracy when certain conditions are met. There are areas in Aberdeenshire where child poverty is relatively high. These tend to be in the north of the Shire, specifically Banff & Buchan where approximately 18.9% of children live in poverty after housing costs. Poverty and deprivation is generally believed to impair life chances, the ultimate consequence being early mortality. It should be noted that latest data show Aberdeenshire as a whole had among the lowest rates of child poverty in the United Kingdom. A wide range of structural, household and individual-level factors contribute towards causing poverty, including: employment status, costs of living, social security system, qualification levels and skills, and broader structures such as the labour and housing markets. These relationships can create a cycle of disadvantage where the impact of growing up in poverty plays a part in causing later poverty and limiting social mobility. Disruptive changes to business models will have a profound impact on the employment landscape over the coming years. It is estimated that 35% of all jobs are likely to be automated in the next 20 years; and one estimate suggests 65% of children entering primary school today will ultimately end up working in completely new job types that don’t yet exist. The number of Vehicle registrations in the AB42 and AB43 postcode areas has increased considerably over the period 2010-2016, albeit the last few Quarters have seen registrations stagnate and the proportion of vehicles with a SORN increase. The fact that the general area has experienced an increase in vehicle numbers could suggest a degree of collective optimism about future prospects, which may in turn translate into a willingness on the part of some to seek employment. Vehicle ownership is both an important measure of overall affluence and an indicator of likely public transport demand in an area. Stagnating vehicle registrations and a rise in the proportion of vehicles no longer on the road may therefore portend or indicate a degree of financial hardship. Banff has continued to increase attainment in both Literacy and Numeracy SCQF Level 4 and Level 5 each year. There was a significant increase in attainment between 2014 and 2015. At SCQF Level 4 performance increased by more than 6%, and at SCQF Level 5 Banff cluster saw an increase in performance of over 12% across these two academic sessions. And although the proportion of school leavers entering a positive destination reduced in the most recent year, it remains slightly higher than the virtual comparator and Scotland as a whole. 5 Banff Academy has the highest number of pupils at Aberdeenshire secondary level who are eligible for and taking up free school meals as a percentage of the total school roll (7.4%). By way of comparison, the lowest free school meal uptake as a percentage of the schools roll on census Westhill Academy (1.2%) A key function of social housing is to provide accommodation that is affordable to people on low incomes. Social housing may therefore be used as a tool to identify areas in which people on lower incomes are likely to reside. There appears to be a statistically significant relationship between areas with a high proportion of social housing and a number of other socio-economic issues. it is possible to say that, where the proportion of socially rented properties is relatively high (in the context of Banff and Macduff), so too are the following: o The proportion of the population deemed to be income deprived; o The proportion of the population prescribed medication for depression, etc; o The proportion of the population claiming disability/incapacity benefits (as measured by the Comparative Illness Factor). o The proportion of overcrowded households; and o The proportion of young people not in education, employment or training (NEET). Conversely, pupil attainment and school attendance are more likely to be lower in such areas. According to the 2011 Census, there are a couple of postcodes with a relatively high proportion of both socially rented properties and families with dependent children. Both are in Banff - AB45 1AZ (near Bridge Road) and AB45 1GD (to the south east of Banff Academy). The crime data reinforces the idea that Aberdeenshire is among the least crime- affected areas in the country, with a crime rate some 44% below that of Scotland on a population basis. SIMD data tends to bolster official crime data – as do local surveys, with 98% of Aberdeenshire residents stating they feel Aberdeenshire is a safe place to live. However, there are areas that tend to experience elevated levels of crime and disorder, most notably Peterhead and Fraserburgh. Indeed, Banff & Buchan and Buchan have together accounted for over half the total number of recorded crime in Aberdeenshire since 2010/11. 6 Aberdeenshire Profile Aberdeenshire is a predominantly rural area in North East Scotland; traditionally economically-dependent upon the primary sectors (Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing) and related processing industries. Over the past 40 years, the development of the oil and gas industry and associated service sector has repositioned Aberdeenshire’s economic focus, and contributed to a rapid population growth of 50% since 1975. However, a recent sharp fall in oil prices indicates that Aberdeenshire faces fresh challenges that could significantly shape and change the area in the years to come. Aberdeenshire extends to 6,313 sq km (2,437 square miles), representing 8% of Scotland’s overall territory. The varied landscape encompasses the mountainous Cairngorms through to rich agricultural lowlands and rugged coastlines. In 2015 Aberdeenshire’s population was estimated to be 261,900, approximately 5.9% of Scotland’s total population of 5,373,000. Over the 10 years from 2005-2015 the population increased by 10.3%, the fourth highest increase in Scotland’s 32 local authorities and more than twice the national average of 5.1 %. Inward migration accounted for 74.8% of the 10.3% population growth during this period. An estimated 4% of Aberdeenshire’s population are non-UK EU citizens1. Aberdeenshire’s economy maintains a close link with that of Aberdeen City.