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From mountain to sea

Banff and Buchan / Banff and Macduff Overview

August 2017

Craig Watson Council & Partnership Analyst Policy, Performance & Improvement Customer Communication & Improvement Business Services

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Contents

Heading Page No. Executive Summary 3 Aberdeenshire Profile 6 Aberdeenshire Demographics Overview 7 Buchan Overview 8 Economy 11 Poverty 23 Education & Skills 28 Health 38 Housing 42 Transport & Access 46 Crime 50 Aberchirder and Whitehills Overview 57 Banff Overview 58 Gardenstown and King Edward Overview 59 Macduff Overview 60 Portsoy, Fordyce and Cornhill Overview 61 Sources 62

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

 Most economic indicators pertaining to the north east corner of Aberdeenshire align more closely with the Scottish average than with the rest of Aberdeenshire, although in many instances the differences are not particularly stark. Aberdeenshire, alongside Aberdeen City, forms one of the most prosperous regions in the country, despite the fall in the price of oil. Skills Development Scotland provides that the region’s economy will continue to grow through 2024, at the 3rd highest rate in the country.

 The jobs market in the Banff and Buchan region is prima facie less positive than is currently the case in Aberdeenshire. This is evidenced by the fact that, as at March 2017, the economic activity rate in Banff and Buchan is 5.5% lower than Aberdeenshire’s equivalent rate (77.4% versus 82.9%).

 Approximately 11,200 people aged 16-64 in the Banff and Buchan region are economically inactive (22.6% of the working age population). Of these, approximately 31.4% (or 3,500 people) are categorised as “long-term sick”, which is considerably higher than Aberdeenshire’s corresponding rate (23%). Indeed, Banff and Buchan’s rate is high enough to place it in the UK’s top quartile. This may have implications for health and social care services in the local area.

 Despite the 13% increase in the number of active enterprises in the Banff and Buchan region between 2010 and 2015, it is lower than the proportional increase experienced by the wider Aberdeen City & Shire area over the same period (21%). A number of reasons could account for the disparity, with local development planning and the commercialisation of certain zones elsewhere in the region the most likely explanation. How much the Energetica corridor boosted the enterprise count in the north east corner of Aberdeenshire is impossible to say but it is likely to have had at least some positive effect.

 Looking forward, whilst conditions remain challenging for North Sea oil & gas producers, there are indications that companies believe they are approaching the bottom of the cycle, and that business confidence is starting to slowly increase. This may indicate that the sector will see an improved outlook in 2017, which should in turn benefit overall economic growth, both for the North East region and Scotland as a whole.

 The consequences of Brexit may have a disproportionate effect on the wider Banff and Buchan area given the comparatively high number of overseas nationals (i.e. Eastern Europeans) living and working in the region. This is possibly more likely to affect Fraserburgh than either Banff or Macduff.

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 Given that the oil and gas industry is important to the Aberdeenshire economy, a statistically significant inverse relationship exists between the price of oil and the number of people claiming Job Seekers’ Allowance (JSA). That is to say, generally speaking, when the price of oil declines, the number of people claiming JSA in the subsequent period increases. A simple formula developed for this report suggests movements in the JSA count could be predicted over a 3-month period with a 66% degree of accuracy when certain conditions are met.

 There are areas in Aberdeenshire where child poverty is relatively high. These tend to be in the north of the Shire, specifically Banff & Buchan where approximately 18.9% of children live in poverty after housing costs. Poverty and deprivation is generally believed to impair life chances, the ultimate consequence being early mortality. It should be noted that latest data show Aberdeenshire as a whole had among the lowest rates of child poverty in the United Kingdom.

 A wide range of structural, household and individual-level factors contribute towards causing poverty, including: employment status, costs of living, social security system, qualification levels and skills, and broader structures such as the labour and housing markets. These relationships can create a cycle of disadvantage where the impact of growing up in poverty plays a part in causing later poverty and limiting social mobility.

 Disruptive changes to business models will have a profound impact on the employment landscape over the coming years. It is estimated that 35% of all jobs are likely to be automated in the next 20 years; and one estimate suggests 65% of children entering primary school today will ultimately end up working in completely new job types that don’t yet exist.

 The number of Vehicle registrations in the AB42 and AB43 postcode areas has increased considerably over the period 2010-2016, albeit the last few Quarters have seen registrations stagnate and the proportion of vehicles with a SORN increase. The fact that the general area has experienced an increase in vehicle numbers could suggest a degree of collective optimism about future prospects, which may in turn translate into a willingness on the part of some to seek employment. Vehicle ownership is both an important measure of overall affluence and an indicator of likely public transport demand in an area. Stagnating vehicle registrations and a rise in the proportion of vehicles no longer on the road may therefore portend or indicate a degree of financial hardship.

 Banff has continued to increase attainment in both Literacy and Numeracy SCQF Level 4 and Level 5 each year. There was a significant increase in attainment between 2014 and 2015. At SCQF Level 4 performance increased by more than 6%, and at SCQF Level 5 Banff cluster saw an increase in performance of over 12% across these two academic sessions. And although the proportion of school leavers entering a positive destination reduced in the most recent year, it remains slightly higher than the virtual comparator and Scotland as a whole.

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 Banff Academy has the highest number of pupils at Aberdeenshire secondary level who are eligible for and taking up free school meals as a percentage of the total school roll (7.4%). By way of comparison, the lowest free school meal uptake as a percentage of the schools roll on census Westhill Academy (1.2%)

 A key function of social housing is to provide accommodation that is affordable to people on low incomes. Social housing may therefore be used as a tool to identify areas in which people on lower incomes are likely to reside. There appears to be a statistically significant relationship between areas with a high proportion of social housing and a number of other socio-economic issues. it is possible to say that, where the proportion of socially rented properties is relatively high (in the context of Banff and Macduff), so too are the following:

o The proportion of the population deemed to be income deprived; o The proportion of the population prescribed medication for depression, etc; o The proportion of the population claiming disability/incapacity benefits (as measured by the Comparative Illness Factor). o The proportion of overcrowded households; and o The proportion of young people not in education, employment or training (NEET).

Conversely, pupil attainment and school attendance are more likely to be lower in such areas.

 According to the 2011 Census, there are a couple of postcodes with a relatively high proportion of both socially rented properties and families with dependent children. Both are in Banff - AB45 1AZ (near Bridge Road) and AB45 1GD (to the south east of Banff Academy).

 The crime data reinforces the idea that Aberdeenshire is among the least crime- affected areas in the country, with a crime rate some 44% below that of Scotland on a population basis. SIMD data tends to bolster official crime data – as do local surveys, with 98% of Aberdeenshire residents stating they feel Aberdeenshire is a safe place to live. However, there are areas that tend to experience elevated levels of crime and disorder, most notably Peterhead and Fraserburgh. Indeed, Banff & Buchan and Buchan have together accounted for over half the total number of recorded crime in Aberdeenshire since 2010/11.

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Aberdeenshire Profile

Aberdeenshire is a predominantly rural area in North East Scotland; traditionally economically-dependent upon the primary sectors (Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing) and related processing industries. Over the past 40 years, the development of the oil and gas industry and associated service sector has repositioned Aberdeenshire’s economic focus, and contributed to a rapid population growth of 50% since 1975. However, a recent sharp fall in oil prices indicates that Aberdeenshire faces fresh challenges that could significantly shape and change the area in the years to come.

Aberdeenshire extends to 6,313 sq km (2,437 square miles), representing 8% of Scotland’s overall territory. The varied landscape encompasses the mountainous Cairngorms through to rich agricultural lowlands and rugged coastlines.

In 2015 Aberdeenshire’s population was estimated to be 261,900, approximately 5.9% of Scotland’s total population of 5,373,000. Over the 10 years from 2005-2015 the population increased by 10.3%, the fourth highest increase in Scotland’s 32 local authorities and more than twice the national average of 5.1 %. Inward migration accounted for 74.8% of the 10.3% population growth during this period. An estimated 4% of Aberdeenshire’s population are non-UK EU citizens1.

Aberdeenshire’s economy maintains a close link with that of Aberdeen City. In 2015, the area was estimated to have contributed 3.7% to Scotland’s total GDP. For 2014- 15 Clackmannanshire (2.5%) was forecast to deliver the highest increase in GDP amongst all 32 Scottish local authorities. However, Aberdeen City was forecast to have the lowest growth rate and Aberdeenshire the second lowest, such is the impact of the oil and gas downturn on the city-region.

Aberdeenshire is Scotland’s foremost fishing area. In 2014 the region accounted for 56.4% of all fish landed into Scotland by value. Together with Aberdeen it provides 31% of Scotland’s regular fisheries employment. Moreover, since 2010, the quantity of fish landings in the North East has increased by 23% and total employment by 5.4%.

Aberdeenshire has 9% of Scotland’s land area but 26% of the national arable total. Almost 6,000 people are estimated to be employed in the Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing industry in Aberdeenshire. Also, Aberdeenshire is perhaps best known for its livestock sector, finishing (the process of fattening calves prior to slaughter) over one third of Scotland’s beef herd.

A selection of high level demographic information is found on the next page.

1 Aberdeenshire Census Profile 2011

ABERDEENSHIRE DEMOGRAPHICS 7 7

POPULATION PROJECTIONS RACE & RELIGION FERTILITY RATE BIRTH, PARENTS & MOTHERS DEATHS

19.7% - the increase in In 2039 the worker-to- 94.5% of 62.2 births per 2,891 births in 38.9% of 85.0% of mothers 2,458 in 2015. Main population between 2014 pensioner (or Aberdeenshire’s 1,000 women aged 2015. Approx. babies in 2015 were born in the cause of death – and 2039, the 3rd highest dependency) ratio may residents are White 15-44 years in 2015, 22% of babies are were born to UK, and 9.1% in the neoplasms (cancer), in Scotland. The 65+ age fall to 2.4 to 1 in British. Most (61.3%) the 2nd highest rate born to mothers parents who EU (the 6th highest which accounted for group is expected to Aberdeenshire and to identify as Scottish. in Scotland and aged over 35 were not married, proportion of EU 29.7% of total deaths, increase by 64%, to 2.2 to 1 in Scotland from Approximately 43% Aberdeenshire’s years - almost the 3rd lowest mothers in the a slightly higher rate 75,000 (or 24% of the a base of 3.6 to 1 in both have no religion highest rate since at triple the figure proportion in country). than for Scotland projected population). cases. (2011 Census). least 1991. recorded in 1991. Scotland. (28.4%).

Region SCOTLAND ABERDEENSHIRE NET MIGRATION & NATURAL CHANGE IN ABERDEENSHIRE SINCE 1991

Year 2014 2039 2014 2039 Migratory flows between

Aberdeenshire’s population increase is Aberdeen City and

Net migration mainly driven by net migration… Aberdeenshire continue to

Projected 3.22 k be strong. Historically, a population higher proportion of Aberdeen City leavers change

tend to settle in Natural change + 6.6% + 19.7%

(births minus deaths) Aberdeenshire than vice 0.95 k 0.85 k versa. The net Shire Relative percentage of population by age 0.43 k intake in 2015 from the 0 City was over 2,000, which group, 2014 and 2039 is higher than average. …but net migration has been The figures have been 2014 2039 falling since 2005 8% 2014 2039 rising over the past few years, peaking in 2013/14 7% 1991 1996 2005 2015 (start of oil price decline).

6% HOUSEHOLD PROJECTIONS (AGE GROUP) SALIENT POINTS 2039 Largest increases are Aberdeenshire is projected to experience the 3rd highest 5% 2014 for those headed by population increase in Scotland between 2014 and 2039. older age groups (due 14 k Older age groups will see the greatest proportional to ageing population) increases. 4%

2014 2014 POPULATION: POPULATION: Net migration has tended to propel growth in the past. High 3% 2014 fertility rates and increasing numbers of females of child 5.35 m 260.5 k HOUSEHOLDS: bearing age may contribute proportionately more in the

2% 108 k years to come. This latter development may have 2039 2039 implications for health partnerships, education services, and POPULATION: POPULATION: 2039 childcare provision.

1%

5.70 m 311.9 k HOUSEHOLDS: 135 k Aberdeenshire households are expected to increase to 0% 135,000 by 2039, from 108,000 in 2014 (+25%). The area

is also expected to have one the highest proportions of

0-4 0-4

90+ 90+

90+

10-14 20-24 30-34 40-44 50-54 60-64 70-74 80-84 10-14 20-24 30-34 40-44 50-54 60-64 70-74 80-84

20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85-89 16-19 households with children. Therefore, there will likely be challenges at both ends of the age spectrum in future years.

8 Banff and Buchan Overview

Map of Banff and Buchan Councillors

BANFF AND DISTRICT TROUP ABERDEENSHIRE COUNCIL

Labour

Scottish Greens 1 1 Independent 10 Conservatives Liberal 70 23 Democrats Cllrs 14 John Glen Michael Ross Mark Hamish COX REYNOLDS ROY CASSIE FINDLATER PARTRIDGE SNP (Aligned (SNP) (Conservative) (SNP) (Conservative) (Aligned 21 Independent) Independent)

FRASERBURGH AND DISTRICT BANFF AND BUCHAN

Independent Conservatives 1. Banff and District 3 3 2. Troup 10 3. Fraserburgh and District Cllrs

Charles Andy Doreen Brian SNP BUCHAN KILLE MAIR TOPPING 4 (SNP) (Conservative) (Aligned (SNP) Independent)

Population - Settlements Summary

Banff and Buchan is one of six administrative areas in Aberdeenshire, and encompasses 617 square

kilometres (or just under 10% of Aberdeenshire’s land mass). 2003 2012 % CHANGE Aberchirder 1,150 1,250 8.7 Banff and Buchan’s population is 35,277, the smallest of Aberdeenshire’s administrative areas in Banff 3,930 4,020 2.3 terms of population. There are 57.2 persons per square kilometre in Banff and Buchan, a denser Inverallochy & Cairnbulg 1,170 1,340 14.5 Fraserburgh 12,180 13,140 7.9 population than Aberdeenshire as a whole (39.2 persons per square kilometre). Gardenstown 760 670 -11.8 Macduff 3,740 4,030 7.8 Fraserburgh is the largest town in Banff and Buchan (pop. 13,140). Banff and Macduff are also Portsoy 1,740 1,730 -0.6 significant settlements (pop. 4,020 and 4,030 respectively). Rosehearty 1,190 1,320 10.9 Buchan’s population is 40,300, the 3rd smallest Sandhaven 680 820 20.6 Whitehills 1,010 1,140 12.9 of Aberdeenshire’s administrative areas. There are 57.2 persons per square kilometre in Buchan, a denser population than Aberdeenshire as a whole (39.2 persons per square kilometre).

Peterhead is by far the largest town in Aberdeenshire (pop. 18,450) and therefore dominates Buchan’s economy which, like neighbouring Banff & Buchan, was built on fishing and agriculture. 9

BANFF & BUCHAN OVERVIEW

Banff and Buchan includes the important coastal towns of Portsoy, Banff, Macduff, and Fraserburgh, their related communities and smaller villages such as Aberchirder, Cornhill, New Byth, and Fordyce. These communities are said to have suffered from a fall in traditional industries.

The economy of Banff and Buchan is mainly based on the traditional industries of fishing and agriculture. The area is largely rural, with fewer employment and service connections to the city of Aberdeen than other parts of Aberdeenshire.

Initiatives such as the ‘Framework for regeneration and its associated action plans target the major coastal towns in the region to improve the built and natural environment, and to improve opportunities for employment.

Fraserburgh in particular is being encouraged to grow based on harbour-related activities and to develop as a service centre. Challenges faced in Banff, Macduff, and Portsoy relate to maintaining and actively using the built heritage within these towns. In each of these areas there are significant issues of distance from markets and the quality of buildings in the old parts of the town that limit opportunities for growth, despite the capacity that each town has.

Banff Overview

Banff is an important administrative and service centre for the western half of northern Aberdeenshire. Most of the historic lower town and the Georgian architecture of the upper town are covered by a Conservation Area. The southern aspect of Banff is covered by the Duff House Gardens which has a Designed Landscape designation.

Banff’s significance as a regional service centre is enhanced by its attractive coastal situation and its location on the main A98 road, making it an attractive tourist and visitor destination for the North East of Scotland and the Moray Firth Coast.

Macduff Overview

Macduff is situated on Banff Bay across the estuary from Banff and, like Banff, is located within the Regeneration Priority Area. Macduff was first developed as a fishing harbour, around which the settlement has expanded. Fishing vessels still use the harbour, but the principal use is now shipbuilding and tourism activities. Macduff’s town centre stands alongside the working port and therefore maintaining the adjacent business and industrial potential is a high priority.

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Town Centre Health Checks 20151

Town centres have been under sustained pressure for many years, from the rise of the out-of-town superstore drawing significant trade away from the centres, and the rise of internet shopping, that has centralised the storage and distribution of goods. Nationally, retailing in small towns has been in serious decline with an increase in ‘discount’ chains and big brand supermarkets at the expense of local independent shops.

Banff and Macduff were surveyed in relation to the 2015 Town Centre Health checks programme.

Banff was identified as having a healthy town centre showing a good range of independent retailers and, in parts, exceptionally high quality built heritage. Weaknesses were identified in respect of the streetscape on High Street, and a high level of vacancy. Banff serves a role as a regional centre to the surrounding area, reinforced by the Census travel-to-work data presented in the main body of this report.

Macduff Town Centre was said to have a much more ‘intimate role’, acting as a local service centre with a poorer range of shop types. Again, built heritage and a sense of place was said to be exceptionally high, but Macduff had suffered from changing retail trends over the decades and had ‘significant problems’ with vacancy. The 2015 Town Centre Health check report concluded that care had to be taken with redefining the role of Macduff, as success in Macduff may result in the weakening of Banff Town Centre.

Regeneration

Regeneration efforts within Banff and Macduff (as well as in Fraserburgh and Peterhead) are driven by the relatively new regeneration strategey, From Strategy to Action: Developing Excellence in Our North Coast Communities.

In Banff, progress continues to made on the Bridge Street / Low Street Conservation Regeneration Scheme (or the CARS programme). This will assist the conservation and restoration of property in the area and help enhance and preserve the character and quality of its built heritage. A number of key projects are underway including a creative writing centre inspired by Lord Byron at the former Tollbooth Hotel, and a new shop in a listed building on Bridge Street, a dedicated farmers market near Carmelite Street and a silversmith workshop. The project is scheduled for completion by March 2019.

In Macduff, the key priority with short and longer term aspirations is the development of Macduff Harbour. One of the key milestones that has been achived is the relaxation of the landing port designation to increase volumes of landings when using port facilities. The road reconfiguration has also been agreed and short term works completed.

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ECONOMY

Many factors influence the performance of the economy, most of which are outside the control of the public sector. Scotland has an open economy, which means it is heavily influenced by global economic performance, including exchange rates, interest rates, commodity prices (oil & gas especially) and worldwide political decisions. The challenge for the public sector is to help create the conditions that stimulate employment opportunities, encourage business growth, entrepreneurship and innovation, and create demand for products and services manufactured and available locally, regionally, and nationally2.

Regional Overview – Aberdeen City & Shire

Aberdeen and Aberdeenshire, recognised world-wide as a centre of the oil and gas industry, form one of the most prosperous regions in the UK. The region has consistently experienced above average rates of population growth, business growth and enterprise growth compared to most major UK city regions, and the rest of Scotland. Industry-specific data for Aberdeen City & Shire are presented in Table 1. (Note: Gross Value Added, or GVA, is the value of goods and services produced in an area.)

Table 1 – Gross Value Added (GVA) (£ millions, North East of Scotland), and employee count (Aberdeenshire only), broken down by industry

GVA as % 2015 GVA % Change in No. of Enterprises of No. Industry (City & Shire) GVA (Aberdeenshire only) Scotland’s £ million (2010-15) total 2010 2016 1 Distribution; transport; accommodation & food £3,698 15.4% + 39.2% 2,230 2,205 2 Business service activities £3,260 24.8% + 44.0% 3,245 4,945 3 Manufacturing £2,465 17.3% + 89.5% 615 700 4 Public administration; education; health £2,378 8.3% + 6.4% 350 395 5 Production £2,248 32.4% - 26.9% 80 180 6 Real estate activities £1,653 13.0% + 45.5% 185 240 7 Construction £940 11.5% + 12.3% 1,405 1,430 8 Other services and household activities £580 12.4% + 17.4% 520 590 9 Information and communication £446 9.4% + 25.3% 320 390 10 Agriculture, forestry and fishing £236 14.7% - 16.6% 2,990 2,980 11 Financial and insurance activities £176 2.1% - 26.1% 70 85 Total £18,081 14.2% + 21.6% 12,020 14,145

Source: ONS

From a business perspective, active enterprises in Aberdeenshire are increasing year- on-year, as is the total turnover (i.e. revenue or sales) of registered enterprises; business survival rates remain among the highest in the country; and Gross Value Added in the region (including Aberdeen City) exceeded £18 billion for the second year running, albeit 2015 saw that value dip by just under £400m due in large part to the

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downturn in the oil and gas sector (which is associated with the “Production” industry in the table above).

Nonetheless, despite the dip, the wider North East region accounted for 14.2% of Scotland’s total GVA in 2015, a proportional increase of 2% from the 1997 baseline.

A number of indicators suggest Aberdeenshire residents compare favourably to their Scottish (and UK) counterparts. For example, a greater proportion of Aberdeenshire’s working age population is economically active relative to Scotland; Aberdeenshire residents also tend to be well-qualified, earn higher wages, and claim fewer benefits as a proportion of the working age population compared to their Scottish counterparts (e.g. ESA and Incapacity, Lone Parent, Carer, Disabled, or Out-of-Work benefits).

A selection of Aberdeenshire-wide key indicators are presented below.

ECONOMIC ACTIVITY / INACTIVITY (2004-2016)

Working age population economically active / inactive, Economically Active, Dec 2016 Breakdown Aberdeenshire, January 2004 to December 2016 Self-employed (14%) Economically Active Males Economically Active 144,200 people 127,600 people (82.6%) 89.9% (81.6%) Total:

144,200 The vast majority of Aberdeenshire's working age Economically Active Females In employment population are economically active; rates are consistently higher than both Scotland and the (86%) 75.4%

UK – and among the highest in the country.. EconomicallyEconomically Inactive, Inactive, Dec Dec 2016 2016 Breakdown Breakdown Economically Inactive Other Looking after 27,900 people 29,100 people (27%) family / home Wants a Job: (18.4%) (17.4%) (32%) Total: 9,800 29,100 Those economically inactive have decreased, with the largest proportion tending to look after Does not want a Job: Retired the family home. Of those who are economically (18%) Long-term sick inactive, 9,800 (or 33%) want a job. 19,300 (24%)

BENEFIT CLAIMANTS (1999-2016) Main Benefit Claimants (absolute number and % of working age client group), Aberdeenshire, November 1999 to November 2016 (Nov) (Nov) 1999 2016 Trends ESA & Incapacity (7530 / 5.1%) ESA & Incapacity 5.1% - 7% (7040 / 4.2%) 4.2%

13,810 (9.3%) 12,850 (7.7%) Other Claimants (3550 / 2.4%) 2.4% Other Claimants Job Seekers 1.5% Total Benefit Claimants (2510 / 1.5%) (2630 / 1.8%) (1999-2016) Job Seekers 1.8% 1.0 % (1700 / 1.0%) The number of claimants has Carers generally decreased. The number Carers 1.0% (920 / 0.6%) claiming Carers benefits has (1590 / 1.0%) 0.6% bucked the overall downwards trend

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Regional Overview – Banff & Buchan (UK Parliamentary Constituency)

Most economic indicators pertaining to the north east corner of Aberdeenshire align more closely with the Scottish average than with the rest of Aberdeenshire, although in many instances the differences are not particularly stark. Table 2 and the four charts below present data on a selection of economic indicators within the Banff and Buchan Scottish Parliamentary Constituency.

Table 2 – Key economic indicators per region 2004/05 and 2016/17 (12 months to March). All figures are percentages.

Banff & Buchan Aberdeenshire Scotland Indicator 2004 2017 % Diff 2004 2017 % Diff 2004 2017 % Diff Economic activity rate - % of people aged 16-64 78.5 77.4 -1.1 81.0 82.9 1.9 76.8 76.9 0.1 Employment rate - % of people aged 16-64 73.7 71.6 -2.1 77.1 78.0 0.9 72.8 73.4 0.6 % aged 16-64 who are self employed 9.9 5.5 -4.4 9.7 10.3 0.6 7.1 8.4 1.3 % who are economically inactive - aged 16-64 21.5 22.6 1.1 19.0 17.1 -1.9 23.2 23.1 -0.1 % of economically inactive who want a job 22.7 34.6 11.9 26.2 33.0 6.8 26.6 24.5 -2.1 Economic activity rate males - % of males aged 16-64 87.4 81.2 -6.2 90.2 88.1 -2.1 82.9 80.9 -2.0 % of males who are economically inactive - males aged 16-64 12.6 18.8 6.2 9.8 11.9 2.1 17.1 19.1 2.0 % of economically inactive males who want a job 34.5 49.9 15.4 30.4 42.3 11.9 31.5 28.1 -3.4 Economic activity rate females - % of females aged 16-64 69.9 74.1 4.2 71.8 77.6 5.8 71.0 73.1 2.1 % of females who are economically inactive - females aged 16-64 30.1 25.9 -4.2 28.2 22.4 -5.8 29.0 26.9 -2.1 % of economically inactive females who want a job 17.9 25.0 7.1 24.8 28.1 3.3 23.9 22.0 -1.9

Source: NOMIS

Figure 1 – (1) Total number of JSA Claimants, Banff & Macduff, September 2014 to July 2017; (2) Average gross weekly wages of full-time workers, Aberdeenshire & Banff and Buchan UK Parliamentary Constituency, 2010 to 2016; (3) Total number of registered vehicles in the AB42 and AB43 postcode areas, 2010 to 2016; (4) Proportion of the total number of vehicles in the AB42 and AB43 postcode areas with a Statutory Off-Road Notice (SORN), 2010 to 2016

1 No. of JSA Claimants 2 Average Weekly Wages 3 No. of Registered Vehicles Aberdeenshire 48 £567 £545 37,227 36 43

33 £498 33,790 £427 Banff & Macduff Banff & Buchan AB42 & AB43 postcode areas

4 % of Vehicles with a SORN 1 Total number of JSA claimants, Banff & Macduff, Sep 2014 to Jul 2017 14.4% 2 Weekly wages, Banff & Buchan versus Aberdeenshire, 2010 to 2016 8.4% 3 Total vehicles registered in the AB42 & AB43 postcode areas, 2010 to 2016 4 % of total vehicles in the above postcode areas with a SORN, 2010 to 2016 AB42 & AB43 postcode areas

Source: NOMIS; Department for Transport

Table 2 generally suggests a slightly less positive jobs market in the Banff and Buchan region relative to Aberdeenshire as a whole. This is evidenced by the fact that, as at March 2017, the economic activity rate in Banff and Buchan is 5.5% lower than Aberdeenshire’s equivalent rate.

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What’s more, a higher proportion of residents in Banff and Buchan work part-time compared to those in Aberdeenshire. In the absence of a disproportionately high young/student population (who are more likely to be engaged in part-time work), this could suggest full-time jobs in the region are less plentiful relative to Aberdeenshire.

Economic Inactivity

Approximately 11,200 people aged 16-64 in the Banff and Buchan region are economically inactive (22.6% of the working age population). Of these, approximately 31.4% (or 3,500 people) are categorised as “long-term sick”, which is considerably higher than Aberdeenshire’s corresponding rate (23%). Indeed, Banff and Buchan’s rate is high enough to place it in the UK’s top quartile. This may have implications for health and social care services in the local area, and, although there is no evidence to support this inference, it may also have implications for unofficial carers in the region, particularly where children are caring for their parents. This could have the effect of reducing school attendance rates and, ultimately, levels of attainment. (There is a strong correlation between school attendance and attainment levels2.)

Table 2 also highlights noteworthy changes over time. For example, a far greater proportion of those currently economically inactive in the Banff and Buchan region want a job compared to 2004 (up by 11.9%). A similar story emerges for Aberdeenshire as a whole while Scotland saw its corresponding proportion decrease over the relevant period.

Put simply, given that economic activity/inactivity rates have remained fairly constant over the period, a higher proportion of those who want a job suggests a greater degree of eagerness to secure employment.

Locally, the recent rise in the proportion of people wanting a job may have been boosted by recent redundancies/lay-offs on the back of the oil price decline. Indeed, one of the challenges for colleagues engaged in back-to-work schemes is the potential for those recently made redundant and equipped with the necessary skills and experience being prioritised over less skilled and less experienced workers. Although discouraged workers are relatively few in number, this ‘jumping-the-queue’ phenomenon may have a detrimental effect on the life chances of those less skilled if, that is, it continues for a prolonged period of time.

It may also be due to changes to the welfare system or to enhancements made in relation to transition-to-work activities (i.e. people are more encouraged to seek employment because they believe there is a greater chance of securing it). The rise in the proportion of people wanting a job is likely a combination of all those factors, and more.

2 Statistically, the correlation coefficient equates to 0.68 in Scotland. The correlation coefficient measures the strength of the relationship between two variables. The number can be anything between -1 and +1. The closer it is to either -1 or +1, the greater the correlation (negative or positive) between the two variables. Therefore, a score of 0.68 would be defined as a strong positive correlation. In this case it means, generally speaking, the higher the attendance rate, the higher the level of attainment.

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Employee Status

Other noteworthy changes in Table 2 relate to the decrease in the proportion of those deemed ‘self-employed’ in the Banff and Buchan region, falling from 9.9% in March 2004 to 5.5% in March 2017. The fall was particularly marked from June 2012 onwards. Reasons for this are manifold, but it could indicate that:

 Finance and other support for small business owners in the Banff and Buchan region is harder to come by than was the case prior to 2012. If there is a will to set up new, and nurture existing, businesses among the local population, then relevant agencies should seek to support that ambition as far as resources allow.  A shortage of skills in industries traditionally associated with self-employment, for example, plumbers, joiners, electricians, etc. If that is the case, the relevant agencies could seek to bolster initiatives that promote apprenticeships in the sectors experiencing the most acute skills shortages.  More business owners are opting to sell their businesses to third parties rather than passing them on to family members, e.g. their children. This in turn could indicate a diminishing appetite on the part of the younger generation to follow in the footsteps of their parents. In some instances, this could be a net benefit in terms of attainment levels and the subsequent uptake of recognised qualifications in the region: without having a business to ‘walk into’, so to speak, the younger generation may be incentivised to gain as many qualifications as is commensurate to their abilities and aspirations.

But fewer self-employed workers could simply indicate that people are gravitating towards a more suitable alternative for their purposes, preferring to opt for employee status rather than self-employment (steadier incomes, etc.).

This latter inference is borne out to some extent by the increase in the number of active enterprises in the Banff and Buchan region over the previous few years, as Table 3 shows.

Active Enterprises

Table 3 – Total number of active enterprises in the Banff and Buchan region per industry category, 2010-2016

Industry 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Agriculture, forestry and fishing 1,520 1,520 1,545 1,530 1,510 1,530 1,515 Production 20 20 30 45 75 80 95 Manufacturing 265 265 285 295 285 295 295 Construction 480 475 475 475 475 490 500 Distribution; transport; accommodation and food 855 850 845 840 825 830 840 Information and communication 65 55 65 60 60 55 60 Financial and insurance activities 20 20 20 20 15 20 20 Real estate activities 45 45 45 45 50 60 60 Business service activities 660 705 775 840 935 1,030 1,045 Public administration; education; health 115 115 120 125 115 125 115 Other services and household activities 160 170 180 165 165 180 180 Total 4195 4245 4375 4430 4525 4700 4730

Source: NOMIS

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Despite the 13% increase in the number of active enterprises in the Banff and Buchan region between 2010 and 2015, it is lower than the proportional increase experienced by the wider Aberdeen City & Shire area over the same period (21%). A number of reasons could account for the disparity, with local development planning and the commercialisation of certain zones elsewhere in the region the most likely explanation. How much the Energetica corridor boosted the enterprise count in the north east corner of Aberdeenshire is impossible to say but it is likely to have had at least some positive effect.

As with Aberdeenshire as a whole the vast majority (90.4%) of enterprises in Banff and Buchan employ fewer than 10 people.

Agriculture, forestry and fishing remains one of the key industries in the area. Business service activities – Aberdeenshire’s main industry on the basis of the number of enterprises – is the fastest growing industry in the Banff and Buchan region.

Gross Value Added – Banff and Buchan

If each enterprise in the Banff and Buchan region produced the same GVA as Aberdeen City and Shire, then Banff and Buchan’s GVA would have equated to £3,644 million in 2015 (or 20% of the North East region’s total). The reason GVA is not higher in this region could be due to the fact that, compared to the North East as a whole, its economy is skewed towards a low value add industry, namely Agriculture, forestry and fishing. Approximately 33% of the active enterprises in Banff and Buchan fall within this industry, which produces approximately £80,000 GVA per enterprise. By way of comparison the Production industry produces approximately £8.65 million per enterprise (see Table 4). This is despite a near 50% reduction in the GVA per enterprise for this industry since 2010 (due in large part to the oil price decline).

Table 4 - Gross Value Added (GVA) per enterprise within the main industry categories (£ million), Aberdeen City & Shire, 2010- 2015

Industry 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Agriculture, forestry and fishing £0.09 £0.08 £0.07 £0.07 £0.08 £0.08 Production £16.18 £14.73 £18.09 £12.41 £11.26 £8.65 Manufacturing £1.27 £1.52 £1.51 £1.90 £2.26 £2.23 Construction £0.42 £0.44 £0.42 £0.47 £0.50 £0.47 Distribution; transport; accommodation and food £0.71 £0.74 £0.77 £0.86 £1.00 £0.99 Information and communication £0.57 £0.52 £0.51 £0.55 £0.59 £0.55 Financial and insurance activities £1.19 £0.91 £0.90 £0.76 £0.91 £0.84 Real estate activities £2.67 £2.97 £3.03 £2.94 £2.98 £3.06 Business service activities £0.37 £0.39 £0.37 £0.36 £0.36 £0.34 Public administration; education; health £3.26 £3.28 £3.04 £3.25 £3.18 £2.95 Other services and household activities £0.52 £0.52 £0.54 £0.63 £0.58 £0.53 Average GVA per Enterprise £0.78 £0.79 £0.80 £0.81 £0.83 £0.78

Source: ONS; NOMIS

Fish processing does not form part of the Agriculture, forestry and fishing industry: it instead forms part of the Manufacturing industry. This latter industry adds more value to the respective economy, and accumulates more gross trading profits per enterprise, than most of the other main industries listed in Table 4.

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Gross Value Added – Banff and Macduff

It’s possible to estimate GVA at a very local level, i.e. at Intermediate Zone, but great caution should be taken when viewing figures at this level. Firstly, the enterprise count at Intermediate Zone level are based on 2016 data (the only year for which data are available at this level) and figures are rounded to the nearest five. Secondly, the GVA figures are based on 2015 prices and, thirdly, GVA per industry is derived from the Aberdeenshire/Aberdeen City average.

With that general health warning applied, the following table presents GVA data for Banff and Macduff per broad industry sector.

Table 5 - Gross Value Added (GVA) per main industry sector (£ million), Banff and Macduff. Registered Enterprises based on 2016 data, GVA based on 2015 data.

Banff Macduff

Broad Industry Sector Registered GVA Registered GVA Enterprises (£ millions) Enterprises (£ millions) Agriculture, forestry and fishing 10 £0.80 20 £1.60 Production 0 £0.00 0 £0.00 Manufacturing 5 £11.15 5 £11.15 Construction 15 £7.05 15 £7.05 Distribution; transport; accommodation and food 50 £49.50 30 £29.70 Information and communication 0 £0.00 0 £0.00 Financial and insurance activities 0 £0.00 0 £0.00 Real estate activities 5 £15.30 0 £0.00 Business service activities 30 £10.20 40 £13.60 Public administration; education; health 10 £29.50 5 £14.75 Other services and household activities 10 £5.30 10 £5.30 Total 135 £128.80 130 £83.15

Source: NOMIS; ONS

As their respective totals suggest, Banff’s economy appears to be larger than that of Macduff. This is in large part due to the fact that Banff contains a greater proportion of its registered enterprises in the ‘real estate activities’ sector, which provides the 2nd highest rate of GVA per enterprise in the wider Aberdeenshire/Aberdeen City region. And although the broad sector of ‘distribution; transport; accommodation and food’ produce one of the lowest rates of GVA per enterprise in the area, the greater number of enterprises within Banff means Banff’s GVA is that much higher than Macduff’s corresponding total.

Although both towns are home to a similar number of registered enterprises the fact that Banff’s GVA is higher tends to reinforce the idea, borne from the Census travel- to-work data, that Banff is more of an industrial/commercial centre than Macduff.

Future / Emerging Trends

Looking forward, whilst conditions remain challenging for North Sea producers, there are indications that companies believe they are approaching the bottom of the cycle, and that business confidence is starting to slowly increase. This may indicate that the sector will see an improved outlook in 2017, which should in turn benefit overall economic growth, both for the North East region and Scotland as a whole.

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Projections suggest the economic future of the North East Region is relatively bright. Since 2008 there has been an increasing divergence with Aberdeen City and Shire showing greater relative growth compared to Scotland, a gap that is forecast to remain fairly stable over the forecast period (2016-2024). Aberdeen City and Shire is projected to be the third largest contributor to the national economy, behind only the two main population regions of Glasgow (Glasgow City, East Renfrewshire and East Dunbartonshire) and Edinburgh, East and Midlothian (Edinburgh City, East Lothian and Midlothian).

Looking at Key Sectors, Energy is forecast to contribute most to overall GVA in Aberdeen City & Shire in 2024, followed by Engineering and Construction. All key sectors in 2024 are projected to increase from their 2016 baseline.

PROJECTED GROSS VALUE ADDED (GVA), ABERDEEN CITY & SHIRE (2016-2024) Index rate of GVA, Aberdeen City & Shire and Scotland, 2000- GVA per key sector (£ millions), Aberdeen City & Shire 2016 and 2024 2024 (projected) Energy 4,326 Aberdeen City & Shire 188 +14.6% Engineering 3,139 Construction 2,069 Business services 1,935 2016 Health and social care* 1,063 Index, 2000 = 100 164 151 2024 Creative industries 580 131 Tourism 560 Food and drink 516 Scotland +15.3% ICT/digital 477 Financial services 184 Life sciences 97 Chemical sciences 41 2000 2016 2024

Source: Skills Development Scotland

Low Price of Oil and Lack of Investment / Future Opportunities

The lack of discretionary capital investment being committed to the UK is perhaps the biggest threat to the long-term health of the basin. In the North Sea, for instance, oil investments fell to less than USD 25 billion in 2016, about half the level of 20143. Coincidentally, this is now approaching the level of spending in offshore wind projects in the North Sea, which has doubled to about USD 20 billion in the same period4.

The recent downturn in the global oil and gas sector highlights the challenges facing the wider region, but also offers opportunities for the future. On top of the opportunity represented by continued oil and gas production (with up to 22 billion barrels of oil yet to realised), the deep pool of applied science and engineering expertise in the region is well placed to capitalise on a number of emerging complementary opportunities meantime, many of which have strategic value to both Scotland (predominantly the North East) and the UK, including:

 Renewable Energy, including battery powered technology – Aberdeenshire is a UK leader in onshore wind power generation. Given the future development of Peterhead Harbour, Peterhead and the surrounding area may be well placed to take advantage of developments in the renewable energy sector, with carbon

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capture a possible additional benefit in the years to come. Battery storage capacity is also expected to greatly increase by 20205, which, given the technical expertise in the area, is perhaps an avenue worthy of exploration by Aberdeenshire and its constituent parts, particularly the Banff and Buchan coastal region.  Decommissioning – North Sea opportunity estimated at £40 billion. Again, the developments at Peterhead Harbour ;  Unconventional Oil and Gas – Role of supply chain in realising the potential of unconventional oil and gas finds in the UK, Europe, and farther afield;  Global Export of Oilfield Services – Building on the region’s global reputation in areas such as subsea engineering to significantly increase exporting potential; and  Wider Knowledge Economy – Building on demands and skills of the energy sector, knowledge industries in life sciences, food and drink, agriculture, and tourism.

Brexit

Most colleagues highlighted the United Kingdom’s Percentage of 16-64 year old non-UK decision to leave the European Union (Brexit) as a nationals in employment by council area, significant risk. Myriad rights and laws have been 2013-2015 created by EU membership over the 40 years the UK % in employment has been a member. Over the long-run (i.e. 15+ years), most economists predict that the decision to leave the 80.0 to 92.4

EU will damage trade, labour mobility and investment. 75.0 to 79.9 Any economic benefits that Brexit might bring are as yet 70.0 to 74.9 unclear and by no means certain. For example, there 60.0 to 69.9 are questions over the deliverability of European-funded programmes and projects managed by the Council. 47.2 to 59.9 Approximately £11 million of funding has been secured for the 2014-20 period for business competitiveness; employability; poverty and social exclusion; fisheries businesses and communities; and rural businesses and communities.

Aberdeenshire’s economy has benefitted from the free movement of people which has helped to address skills and labour shortages in the area, sustaining sectors such as agriculture and fish processing. Similarly, the public sector is dependent on migrant labour to fill key Aberdeenshire had 2nd highest employment posts and still faces significant difficulties in attracting rate of non-UK nationals in the UK (88.9%) key workers in the medical, care and teaching professions.

The economic and demographic reality facing areas such as Aberdeenshire is that EU labour is necessary to maintain economic competitiveness and deliver public services, particularly as Aberdeenshire’s population is projected to age. It is important that areas such as Aberdeenshire can continue to attract workers from EU Member States in a post-Brexit world.

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Post-Script: Job Seekers’ Allowance – Potential Early Warning System

Given that the oil and gas industry is important to the Aberdeenshire economy, a statistically significant inverse relationship exists between the price of oil and the number of people claiming Job Seekers’ Allowance. That is to say, generally speaking, when the price of oil declines, the number of people claiming JSA in the subsequent period increases. In statistical terms, this relationship is referred to as a ‘negative correlation’, and correlations between two variables may be assigned a number to represent the ‘strength’ of the relationship (known as the ‘correlation coefficient’). The number can be anything between -1 and +1. The closer it is to either -1 or +1, the greater the correlation (negative or positive) between the two variables.

Between January 1992 and April 2017 the negative correlation between the oil price and JSA claimants in Aberdeenshire equated to -0.54. Statistically speaking, a correlation of -0.54 is a fairly strong inverse relationship.

The early warning system developed for this report is relatively simple. It factors in movements in the number of Aberdeenshire’s JSA claimants and movements in the price of a barrel of Brent Crude oil. There are four elements to it, and the maximum score is 4.

When a month records a score of 4 (referred to as a ‘4-score month’), the JSA claimant count is generally higher in 3 months’ time - by 12% on average - and it takes an average of 17 months for the count return to the base level.

It is calculated as follows:

1. Movements in JSA – if the JSA claimant count increases by at least 1% month- on-month, then the month that records the rise will score 1 point.

2. Maximum JSA – if the JSA claimant count reaches a 3-month high, then the month that records the 3-month high will score 1 point.

3. Movements in the oil price – if the oil price declines by at least 2.5% month- on-month, then the month of the price decline will score 1 point.

4. Minimum oil price – if the oil price reaches a 3-month low, then the month that records the 3-month low will score 1 point.

A score of 4 will only occur when all 4 conditions are met. Since January 1992, this has occurred 21 times. Figure 2 highlights the relevant months and charts what happened to the JSA claimant count 3 months later. By way of an example, when the 4 conditions above were met in January 2016 the JSA claimant count increased by 16% 3 months later

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Figure 2 – Subsequent moves in the JSA Claimant Count once a 4-score month has been registered, Aberdeenshire, 1992-2016

Decrease in JSA Count Increase in JSA Count (3 months later) (3 months later) Out of the 21 ‘4-score months’ January 2016 16% registered since 1992, the JSA December 2015 34% claimant count increased 14 November 2015 32% times in the subsequent 3 August 2015 12% months, and decreased 7 times. January 2015 18% The JSA count therefore December 2014 30% increased 2 out of every 3 times August 2011 -15% a ‘4-score’ month was February 2010 -10% registered. December 2008 35% November 2008 43% Of the 21 4-score months, 14 October 2008 38% fell during a UK-wide August 2008 14% recessionary period. The January 2007 -7% average 3-month rise in the JSA December 2004 4% claimant count during these December 2000 -2% periods equated to 20%. A December 1998 Months when all 4 conditions met were conditions 4 all when Months 19% precipitous decline in the oil January 1998 -14% price could in itself indicate December 1993 13% recessionary conditions as the January 1993 -10% commodity is extremely December 1992 -3% sensitive to the economic November 1992 9% principle of supply and demand.

Indicates a UK-wide recessionary period

Source: NOMIS; Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis

Relatively few 4-score months were registered in relation to Banff and Macduff (3 in the previous 31 months). Therefore, little may be garnered from the results. However, on the few occasions where a 4-score month was registered, the local JSA count increased in the subsequent few months (by 14.3% on average).

The relationship appears to be stronger in the wider Banff and Buchan region. On the 12 occasions a 4-score month was recorded, the JSA count increased 10 times in the subsequent 3 months (by 21% on average). The only time the JSA decreased in the subsequent period was January 2007 and March 2017. The difference between these two periods is that, in the months subsequent to January 2007 the oil price increased considerably, whereas the oil price actually decreased in the months following March 2017 – and yet the JSA has continued to fall in tandem. This is an unusual departure from previous periods.

The fact that the Banff and Buchan JSA count is falling as the price of oil falls could suggest a more robust back-to-work scheme than perhaps was the case in previous periods. It could also suggest that individuals are taking themselves out of the job market all together, most likely those nearing retirement age. Therefore, they will be excluded from the out-of-work benefits count. However, since March 2017 the number of Universal Credit claimants is increasing in both the wider Banff and Buchan region and the more local area of Banff and Macduff.

This arguably provides an interesting starting point in terms of developing an early warning system for out-of-work benefits claimants and the potential for financial hardship to take hold in certain parts of Aberdeenshire. There could be scope for investigating this unsophisticated formulation further in order to predict the

22 consequences with a greater degree of accuracy by, for example, widening the net to capture data most closely aligned to future movements in the JSA count.

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POVERTY

Individuals, families and groups in the population can be said to be in poverty when they lack the resources to obtain the types of diet, participate in the activities, and have the living conditions and amenities which are customary, or at least widely encouraged or approved, in the societies to which they belong. Their resources are so seriously below those commanded by the average individual or family that they are, in effect, excluded from ordinary patterns, customs and activities6.

A recent typology of poverty in Scotland identified three main poverty types:

1. Families with children 2. Working age without children 3. Older age

With regards to the first poverty type, the 'Struggling to get by' households are the largest sub-group, making up approximately a third of low income families with children. Other sub-groups include: Part-time workers with low assets; workless families; and working home owners.

Figure 3 - Breakdown of poverty indicators for the 'struggling to get by'

Source: Scottish Government

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Most of this group are living in social housing with few savings and no car. While the evidence does not conclusively show it, it is possible that some 'workless families' (perhaps those with better qualifications) become those 'struggling to get by' when their children get older. Although both groups have significant levels of worklessness, the 'struggling to get by' have higher rates of part time work. This may be in part due to having older children, but also no doubt due to their better qualification levels. For example, unemployed young mothers with very young children become slightly older mothers with older, primary school aged children and an increased opportunity to participate in employment.

The biggest challenges for this group are employment and childcare costs.

As with 'workless families', this group would benefit from employability support to help build their skills and experience and help them enter (or re-enter) work. An additional focus for this group would be to enable in work progression and increased work hours, given the higher proportion already working part time.

The childcare burden faced by this group must also be addressed as both a drain on this group's income and as a barrier to employment.

Child Poverty

Child poverty means growing up in families without the resources to ‘obtain the type of diet, participate in the activities and have the living conditions and amenities’ which are the norm in 21st century Scotland.

Children are considered to be living in poverty if they live in households with less than 60% of median household income. This is the key measure used by UK and Scottish Government. Using this measure the latest (2015/16) official data shows; a lone parent family with two children (aged 5 and 14) is living in poverty if they are living on less than £297 per week (after housing costs have been deducted)

Effects of Child Poverty

Experiencing child poverty can undermine the health, wellbeing and educational attainment of children. For example:

 Children form higher income families significantly outperform those from low income households at ages 3 and 5. By age 5 there is a gap of ten months in problem solving development and of 13 months in vocabulary7.  Three year olds in households with incomes below £10,000 are two and a half times more likely to suffer chronic illness than children in households with incomes above £52,0008.  There are strong links between the experience of child poverty and poor mental health. One study shows that children living in low-income households are nearly three times as likely to suffer mental health problems than their more affluent peers9.

As well as being harmful to children and families child poverty has a wider cost for society. A 2013 study found that the high levels of child poverty in the UK are currently

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costing the country at least £29 billion a year. This includes the cost of policy interventions, long term losses to the economy, lower educational attainment and poorer mental and physical health10.

Figure 4 – Child poverty rates, Scotland & Banff & Macduff Intermediate Zones, 2012

Glasgow City 29.3 North Ayrshire 24.4 West Dunbartonshire 23.7 There are areas in Aberdeenshire where Dundee City 23.4 child poverty rates exceed the Scottish Inverclyde 23.0 Clackmannanshire average. These tend to be in the north of the 21.6 East Ayrshire 21.2 Shire. Poverty and deprivation is generally North Lanarkshire 19.6 Fife 18.4 believed to impair life chances, the ultimate Renfrewshire 17.6 consequence being early mortality. It Scotland 17.2 South Ayrshire 17.2 should be noted that latest data show Midlothian 17.0 Aberdeenshire had among the lowest rates South Lanarkshire 16.6 Falkirk 16.5 of child poverty in the United Kingdom. West Lothian 15.9 Edinburgh, City of 15.8 Dumfries and Galloway 15.6 East Lothian 12.9 Banff & Macduff (and surrounding) Intermediate Zones Angus 12.9 Highland 12.5 Argyll and Bute 12.5 Banff 16.6 Aberdeen City 12.5 Scottish Borders 12.3 Macduff 13.3 Stirling 12.2 Perth and Kinross 10.9 Aberchirder and Whitehills 12.2 Moray 10.4 Eilean Siar 9.3 Gardenstown and King Edward 11.9 East Dunbartonshire 9.0 East Renfrewshire 8.6 Portsoy, Fordyce and Cornhill 8.8 Aberdeenshire 7.3 Orkney Islands 7.2 Aberdeenshire 7.3 Shetland Islands 6.5

Table 6 – Proportion of pupils receiving Free School Meals and Clothing Grants Figure 5 – Clothing Grants per Admin Area, 2017 per school, Banff Cluster, 2016/17.

Number % of total Clothing of pupils Aberdeenshire Marr School Name roll on Grants as % Banff & Buchan receiving average (%) 13% census day of B&B Total FSM 22% Banff Academy 62 7.4 4 40.1 Kincardine & Mearns Aberchirder Primary 7 4.4 4.2 5.2 Clothing 13% Banff Primary School 29 8.7 4.2 19.4 Grants in Bracoden School * * 4.2 * Aberdeenshire Fordyce School 0 0.0 4.2 * Schools: Macduff School 18 6.1 4.2 * Ordiquhill School * * 4.2 19.0 2,592 Garioch Buchan Portsoy School 6 4.0 4.2 * 14% 25% Whitehills School 6 5.1 4.2 8.2 Formartine 13%

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Drivers of Poverty

A wide range of structural, household and individual-level factors contribute towards causing poverty. A number of factors are identified as being particularly important in driving poverty.

 Employment status has a strong and direct impact on poverty outcomes as earnings from paid work are the single largest source of income for most households in Scotland. However, the rising levels of in-work poverty in Scotland highlight that getting households into employment is not a guaranteed route out of poverty. The quality and intensity of work – in relation to pay, hours, security and opportunities for progression – is also crucial.  The costs of living have a considerable direct impact on the resources required to reach a reasonable standard of living, and housing costs in particular directly contribute to poverty and material deprivation. The poverty premium and consumption taxes can add to the cost of living for low income households.  The social security system is a powerful lever that can be used to address poverty by directly providing or supplementing household income. Cash benefits can have a significant direct impact on poverty, in particular there is strong evidence that topping up the earnings of low income working households through Tax Credits has an impact on poverty.  These direct drivers are influenced by more indirect drivers of poverty that shape children’s life chances and future income. Individuals with higher qualification levels and skills are much more likely to be in employment, and have better employment prospects and higher earnings. This reduces the risk of poverty for more highly qualified individuals and their children. Childhood experiences and non-cognitive skills are likely to have some impact on poverty primarily through their impact on educational attainment.  Poverty is also shaped by broader structures such as the labour and housing markets. Productivity levels, whether jobs are available in the labour market, and what type of jobs – and how these factors vary in different places – have an impact on people’s income through the employment opportunities they have access to. Similarly, the availability of affordable, good quality housing in the places it is needed shapes households’ costs and health and wellbeing through the housing they are able to access. Other living costs also vary substantially by region and neighbourhood across the UK. In particular, people in rural areas face higher costs of living and issues related to access to transport, and therefore employment and services.

Some of the drivers of poverty (e.g. low educational attainment and poor health) are also, or even primarily, consequences of poverty. These relationships can create a cycle of disadvantage where the impact of growing up in poverty plays a part in causing later poverty and limiting social mobility.

27 Potential Drivers of Poverty

PLACES – THE PLACES Health Childhood experience WHERE PEOPLE LIVE

 Physical health / disability –  Poverty / disadvantage &  impacts on education, adverse childhood experiences employment, etc.  Parental & home learning Environmental Factors  Mental Health, wellbeing & environment

stress – impact on work,  Cultural resorces family, interaction with Impact of pollution on services health; availability of green

space & wellbeing, etc Labour Market Skills & Qualifications Housing Market

   Availability of appropriate,

Number/type of jobs in the Educational attainment – impact on economy employment opportunities, etc. affordable housing (tenure) Neighbourhood Social  Labour productivity  Non-cognitive skills  Housing quality – impact of poor Networks & Culture

 Labour representation – impact on  Financial capability quality housing on health &

working conditions  Training & job progression – ability education Social networks; life chances

 Impact on benefit withdrawal, low to increase pay / prospects

pay, incentive to take up work

 Responsibility for unpaid caring

work Transport & Local

composition Services

PROSPECTS – PEOPLE’S LIFE CHANCES Ability to access employment & services;

quality of schools, social ethnicity, disability, Household / disability, Family etc., ethnicity, care, etc.

Equality & Household Equality Characteristics: Social Security Employment Financial Resources Costs of Living Local Labour Market  Eligibility criteria for  Whether in employment  Household savings,  Cost of housing Quality Age, gender, Age, receiving benefits  Hourly pay wealth & assets  Energy costs  Level of benefits   Household debt  Underemployment / Cost of childcare & / or Job opportunities;  Under-claiming benefits hours of work  Access to banking, credit the school day innovation; investment  Delivery process (e.g.  Working conditions insurance, etc.  Transport costs assessments, sanctions) (security, flexibility)  Council tax  Caring Work  Taxes on earnings  Disproportionate indirect taxation (e.g. VAT) Regional Variation in the Cost of Living

e.g. housing costs; higher energy costs in rural areas. POCKETS – PEOPLE’S CURRENT INCOME & EXPENSES

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EDUCATION & SKILLS

The importance of education and the effective transition from education to work, as well as the capacity to augment our skills throughout our lives, cannot be overstated. Educational attainment and labour force qualifications are seen as a determinant of economic outcomes, not just for individuals but also for enterprises, institutions, and society as a whole. The OECD imputes a great deal of importance to education - and, by implication, lifelong learning - going so far as to say it’s the ‘thread that gives form to the fabric of society’11.

Education is the defining mission of the Scottish Government12. It seeks to ensure that every child has the same opportunities and an equal chance to succeed13. The ultimate ambition is to improve life chances for young people, support economic growth and increase jobs14, all of which contribute to the Scottish Government’s single overarching purpose. There are therefore links to many themes contained within this document, not least of which the sections detailing Children & Young People, and Business and Enterprise.

The education sector is currently undergoing a number of changes nationally which have had, and will continue to have, major implications for local service delivery. The Education Bill, Governance Review15, Delivery Plan16, National Improvement Framework, and the review of the Parental Involvement Act are just a few of the most significant examples of recent legislative and policy initiatives. These follow on from ongoing transformational changes brought about by Curriculum for Excellence, GIRFEC, and the Early Years agenda – and the Scottish Government assures us that more changes are on the horizon, such as changes to the qualifications system17 and the school inspections remit18.

Reforms are likely due to a combination of factors including a reduction of 5% in real terms spending on education and lifelong learning over recent years, - a trend that will likely continue in the coming years, - and Scotland’s deteriorating international rankings in respect of school pupils’ performances in the key subjects of reading, maths, and science19. Other factors will have also played a part, including the significant barriers posed by poverty and inequality, under-representation of pupils from poorer backgrounds at University, as well as the pace of industrial and technological change as outlined on the previous page.

To address the challenges, the Government requires the whole system to pull in the same direction. In policy terms, this necessitates an integrated framework, the three building blocks of which are:

 Getting it Right for Every Child (GIRFEC);  Curriculum for Excellence; and  Developing Scotland’s Young Workforce.

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In essence, the Scottish government is inducing us to view the entire system, in the first instance, through the lens of GIRFEC, from the early years (including the pre-natal period), to school and further education, right through to employment and beyond. Again, by closing the attainment gap and empowering teachers, schools and communities, the ultimate ambition is to improve life chances for young people, support economic growth and increase employment opportunities.

The diagram depicting the framework to support the Scottish Attainment Challenge provides a useful snapshot of the thinking behind many of the policies driving change in the education sector. It utilises elements of the Christie Commission (early intervention and prevention) and implies a requirement to look holistically at the entire education/skills system, a perspective reminiscent of, and encouraged by, the GIRFEC methodology.

Figure 6 – Scottish Attainment Challenge Framework

The key priorities are: The primary levers for change are:

Interventions should focus on: Improveattainment in literacy&numer

Targeted Early intervention & Social & emotional Promoting healthy approaches to prevention wellbeing lifestyles literacy & numeracy

Promoting a high Differentiated Using evidence and Employability & quality learning support data skills development experience

Professional Research & Engaging beyond Partnership working learning & evaluation to the school leadership monitor impact

a cy Banff Cluster Overview

Source: Scottish Government

Whilst the reasons for transformational change are relatively clear (e.g. budgetary pressures), as are the ultimate issues we seek to resolve (e.g. closing the socio- economic gap), practitioners would be forgiven for thinking that the plethora of tools, methods and approaches to resolve the issues may in some respects confuse matters. The volume of national and local strategies, plans, etc., whilst no doubt interconnected, make it challenging for policy makers to formulate a cohesive approach, an approach that necessarily spans multiple agencies and varying stages of a child’s life, from the pre- natal period to eventual employment. There may well be one overarching plan for children’s services in Aberdeenshire – which is a positive development - but there are over 100 similarly-themed documents underpinning it (and a great many more affecting it and vice versa). It is arguably a conceptual challenge as much as an operational one.

Colleagues have stressed the importance of aligning the service planning and delivery process so that they mutually reinforce activities and reduce duplication. Part of this will entail sharing partnership data to ensure reporting processes are robust, facilitate the reporting of progress, and clearly evidence improved outcomes.

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Children and Young People - ‘Stepping Stones’ and the Three ‘Bedrock’ Initiatives

Given the conceptual challenges associated with a for example, volunteer work, sporting activities, the and the wherewithal to succeed in life. Challenges relatively dense policy landscape, it may be useful to Duke of Edinburgh awards (and similar schemes), as abound, but they only serve to highlight the importance think of a child’s journey through life, from the pre-natal well as a whole host of other life-affirming, self- of the whole system pulling in the same direction, in period through to eventual employment, as a series of confidence-building, skills-enhancing activities that will spite of the rather dense policy landscape. stepping stones. The foundation upon which these make it easier for them to eventually secure stones are laid – the bedrock – is comprised of employment and therefore contribute to the From an operational perspective, it may be beneficial GIRFEC, Curriculum for Excellence and Developing advancement of society as a whole. to create a single progress report (reporting directly to the Young Workforce. Each spans the entire length of the Chief Officer Group for Children) that summarises the diagram below but each will have varying degrees But some people, for whatever reason, will not. A very the main activities of the three bedrock initiatives and of influence depending on the stage the child has small minority will not benefit from a so-called good documents Key Performance Indicators. It may make it reached in his or her life. GIRFEC is all-encompassing. upbringing. They’ll refuse or find it difficult to enter the easier for services to, for example, determine where we doorways we’ve just highlighted. A few will act are in terms of our stated outcomes, to coordinate The vast majority of children in Aberdeenshire will pass irresponsibly, fewer still will engage in criminal activities in response to an identified weakness in the from the first stone to the last with relative ease. They behaviour, and some will find it difficult to secure system, to investigate a fundamental intelligence gap will be born into a relatively prosperous household, employment, perhaps for the rest of their lives. The or a cross-cutting issue, or to commission ‘deep dive’ they’ll benefit from a decent education, and likely find major purpose of the three bedrock initiatives in the reports to inform policy (such as the forthcoming report work at the end of it. In short, they’ll freely enter diagram below is to prevent that scenario from on child poverty in Aberdeenshire), and so on. The doorways as they meander through the ‘corridor of materialising, to open doors and to encourage point is to make everything as simple as possible in opportunity’. They’ll take part in augmented learning, participation, to equip our young people with the skills order for a cohesive approach to emerge and flourish. a

CORRIDOR OF OPPORTUNITY

Stepping Stones

Pre-Natal Early Years Primary, Secondary & Further Education Transition to Work Employment GIRFEC CURRICULUM FOR EXCELLENCE HEALTHY RESPONSIBLE DEVELOPING THE YOUNG WORKFORCE EMPLOYED GIRFEC

The Three ‘Bedrock’ Initiatives in the Sphere of Children & Young People The Aim

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Attainment

Performance for Banff in Literacy and Numeracy SCQF Level 4 and Level 5 has been consistently greater than the virtual comparator over the most recent three years of data collected. These results highlight that Banff pupils are effectively competing with their counterparts nationally (virtual comparator data is based on identification of 10 pupils nationally who match Banff cluster pupils most closely based on stage; Gender; ASN and SIMD).

Figure 6 - Achievement of Literacy and Numeracy Levels 4 & 5 within Banff Cluster, 2014-16

Percentage of candidates attaining literacy and Percentage of candidates attaining literacy and numeracy at SQF Level 4 numeracy at SQF Level 5

100 100

90 90 80 80 70 70

60 60 50 50 40 40

30 30 20 20 10 10

0 0 Banff Virtual Banff Virtual Aberdeenshire National Aberdeenshire National Academy Comparator Academy Comparator

2014 88.7 83.4 87.2 84.6 2014 64.9 53.5 57.7 57.0 2015 95.0 90.7 94.4 89.7 2015 77.0 65.8 73.0 64.9 2016 97.3 94.5 95.2 91.9 2016 78.0 69.1 78.7 68.3

Source: Insight

As Figure 6 shows, Banff has continued to increase attainment in both Literacy and Numeracy SCQF Level 4 and Level 5 each year. There was a significant increase in attainment between 2014 and 2015. At SCQF Level 4 performance increased by more than 6%, and at SCQF Level 5 Banff cluster saw an increase in performance of over 12% across these two academic sessions.

Data in Tables 7 and 8 are published as part of pupil's achievement of Curriculum for Excellence Levels. This is a summary of all primary schools within the Banff Cluster, and includes only those pupils where an assessment was carried out.

Table 7 - Banff Cluster achievement of Curriculum for Excellence reading levels

Reading School Early level by end of P1 First level by end of P4 Second level by end of P7 Roll of Group % achieving Roll of Group % achieving Roll of Group % achieving Aberchirder Primary School 15 60 22 41 15 60 Banff Primary School 49 86 44 48 56 29 Bracoden Primary School 6 83 8 100 8 100 Fordyce Primary School 5 100 2 0 2 50 Macduff Primary School 39 67 27 30 43 21 Ordiquhill Primary School 11 36 8 88 10 10 Portsoy Primary School 28 93 24 38 15 33 Whitehills Primary School 18 67 24 71 24 71

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Table 8 - Banff Cluster achievement of Curriculum for Excellence writing levels

Writing School Early level by end of P1 First level by end of P4 Second level by end of P7 Roll of Group % achieving Roll of Group % achieving Roll of Group % achieving Aberchirder Primary School 15 47 22 36 15 40 Banff Primary School 49 86 44 52 56 14 Bracoden Primary School 6 83 8 75 8 88 Fordyce Primary School 5 100 2 0 2 0 Macduff Primary School 39 56 28 25 43 35 Ordiquhill Primary School 11 36 8 88 10 0 Portsoy Primary School 28 93 24 33 15 47 Whitehills Primary School 18 61 24 67 24 67

Source: Insight

Incidentally, Banff Primary School underwent an inspection on 22/03/2017. According to a paper for the Banff and Buchan Area Committee (29/08/2017) the results have yet to be published but will be available to members as soon as practicably possible.

Post-School Positive Destinations

Figure 7 below identifies the number of school leavers within the Banff Cluster who moved in to a positive leaver destination (i.e. further training/employment). This data highlights that in 2013/14, and 2014/15, the percentage of school leavers in a positive destination in the Banff Cluster exceeded averages both nationally and within Aberdeenshire. However, the percentage in the Banff Cluster dipped below that of Aberdeenshire in the latest year for which data are available.

Figure 7 - Percentage of school leavers in the Banff Cluster in a positive destination

100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Banff Academy Virtual Comparator Aberdeenshire National 2013/14 94.1 91.7 94.0 92.5 2014/15 96.9 91.4 95.9 93.0 2015/16 93.6 93.3 94.7 93.3

Source: Insight

Attendance

Attendance and absences are recorded in, and reported from, SEEMiS Click+Go as number of openings rather than number of days (i.e. each week has a total of 10 possible 'openings', with two per day - morning and afternoon), therefore the figures provided in

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Table 9 below are based on number of openings for primary and secondary pupils (i.e. excludes nursery stages and special schools).

Table 9 - Attendance for Banff primary schools, total attendance openings as a percentage of total possible attendance openings, academic session 2016/17

Aberdeenshire School Name Attendance Rate (%) Average Attendance As Table 9 shows, Attendance Rate (%) rates in the Banff Cluster are Banff Academy 93.1 93.2 similar to, but tend to fall below, Aberchirder Primary School 95.5 Banff Primary School 94.7 the respective averages for Bracoden Primary School 95.2 Aberdeenshire. Fordyce Primary School 96.9 96.2 Macduff Primary School 95.4 Ordiquhill Primary School 95.9 Portsoy Primary School 96.1 Whitehills Primary School 96.7

Sources: BI ATT1 Authority Cumulative Report; ATT4 School Cumulative Report; ATT6 School Stage Cumulative Report (run on 21.07.17)

English as an Additional Language

Banff Academy is second only to Peterhead Academy at Secondary level in Aberdeenshire with the number of pupils as a % of the school roll where English is an additional language (Peterhead Academy - 13.8%). The percentage of pupils on the school roll for whom English is an additional language is the 5th highest of the 156 Aberdeenshire primary schools at Banff Primary School (61.3%). Four out of the eight primary schools in Banff exceed the Aberdeenshire primary average for the percentage of pupils on the school roll for whom English is an additional language. There are two primary schools within the Banff cluster that have no pupils where English is an additional language - Bracoden Primary and Fordyce Primary.

Table 10 – Percentage of Pupils on the school roll with English as an additional language, Banff Cluster, 2016

% of pupils on school roll with Aberdeenshire average % of pupils on School Name - Banff Cluster English as an additional relevant school rolls with English as an language additional language Banff Academy 6.6 4.1 Aberchirder Primary School 5.8 Banff Primary School 17.0 Bracoden Primary School 0.0 Fordyce Primary School 0.0 3.8 Macduff Primary School 6.5 Ordiquhill Primary School * Portsoy Primary School * Whitehills Primary School 7.7

Source: Pupil Census, September 2016

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Future / Emerging Trends

The world is entering a Fourth Industrial Revolution20. Disruptive changes to business models will have a profound impact on the employment landscape over the coming years. It is estimated that 35% of all jobs are likely to be automated in the next 20 years21; and one estimate suggests 65% of children entering primary school today will ultimately end up working in completely new job types that don’t yet exist. In such a rapidly evolving employment landscape, the ability to anticipate and prepare for future skills requirements, job content and the aggregate effect on employment is increasingly critical for businesses, governments (both local and national), and individuals in order to fully seize the opportunities presented by these trends – and to mitigate undesirable outcomes.

Figure 8 – Timeframe to impact industries, business models

Impact felt already 2015-2018 2019-2020+

 Rising geopolitical volatility  New energy supplies and  Advanced robotics and  Mobile internet and cloud technologies autonomous transport technology  The Internet of Things  Artificial intelligence, machine  Advances in computing power  Advanced Manufacturing and learning, and augmented reality and Big Data 3D printing  Advanced materials,  Crowdsourcing, the sharing  Longevity / ageing societies biotechnology and genomics economy and peer-to-peer  New consumer concerns about  Development of ‘smart’ systems platforms ethical and privacy issues and places.  Young demographics in emerging markets Is Aberdeenshire in a strong position to not only cope with the rapid pace  Rapid urbanisation of change but to capitalise on it? If not, what do we need to change in  Changing work environments order to become a leading light in an increasingly competitive global and flexible working marketplace?

arrangements A local (and prima facie insignificant) example of change: an Electronic  Climate change, natural Auction will replace current arrangements for selling fish at Fraserburgh resource constraints and the and Peterhead harbours, linked to boats out at sea – is this the nascent

transition to a greener economy beginnings of “Smart Towns” in Aberdeenshire?

Source: World Economic Forum

Skills & Qualifications

Although an increasing proportion of the workforce in the general Banffshire & Buchan Coast area has gained qualifications since 2004, there appears to have been a general dip last year. This is especially marked for the proportion of the workforce attaining qualifications classified as ‘other’. In tandem with this development, the proportion of the workforce with no qualifications increased last year, albeit the percentage difference year-on-year was relatively low (from 8.2% to 9.0%), and the figure remains below that of Scotland as a whole.

Taken together, the longer term uptake in qualifications throughout the Banffshire & Buchan Coast region is encouraging. However, as the 2016 snapshot below highlights, there is still some way to go before the area is on a par with Aberdeenshire with regards to NVQ3 qualifications and above. Of course, this may reflect the nature of the local job markets in the various areas of Aberdeenshire, with top tier qualifications in less demand in the north of Aberdeenshire than perhaps is the case elsewhere.

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Figure 9 - Percentage of the workforce accredited with individual qualifications per qualification type and area – Banffshire & Buchan Coast, Aberdeenshire, Scotland, Jan-Dec 2016.

Banffshire & Buchan Coast Aberdeenshire Scotland

100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 Workforce the of % 20 10 0 Other No NVQ4+ NVQ3+ NVQ2+ NVQ1+ qualifications qualifications (NVQ) (NVQ)

Banffshire & Buchan Coast 30.4 48.0 68.9 88.1 2.9 9.0 Aberdeenshire 43.5 60.4 77.0 88.7 4.2 7.1 Scotland 43.7 60.0 75.5 84.1 6.1 9.9

Source: Nomis

Skills development and skills shortages have been an ongoing concern for the City & Shire region and are mirrored in other world energy regions. The challenge for our area is not only the direct impact on the oil and gas industry but the indirect impact on the ability to recruit and retain a skilled workforce in areas ranging from teaching to catering.

Figure 10 - Top 20 Industrial Sub-sectors by Employment (Jobs), Aberdeen City & Shire, 2016-2024. Numbers are in thousands.

Architectural and engineering 30.5 2016 Retail trade, except of motor vehicles 26.6 2024 Human health activities 24.9 Education 20.0 Mining support service activities 15.8 Food and beverage service activities 15.1 Specialised construction activities 13.6 Extraction of crude petroleum 11.0 Public administration and defence 10.7 Wholesale trade, except of motor vehicles 9.5 Services to buildings and landscape 9.2 Social work activities 7.8 Activities of head offices 7.4 Land transport and transport 7.0 Employment activities 6.8 Repair and installation of machinery 6.5 Construction of buildings 6.3 Residential care activities 6.0 Other professional, scientific 5.9 Thousands of Jobs Services to buildings and landscape 0.8 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35

Source: Skills Development Scotland

There are a total of 85 industrial sub-sectors (only the top 20 are shown in the graph immediately above). At a sub-sectoral level, Architectural and engineering currently accounts for the greatest number of jobs in the North East region (and will do so again in 2024). The sub-sector will also experience the greatest increase in jobs over the projected period. In terms of projected levels in 2024, Architectural and engineering, the

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Retail trade and Human health activities are all forecast to have the highest job levels with 30,500, 26,600 and 24,900 jobs respectively. Mining support service activities and the Extraction of crude petroleum sub sectors are the most conspicuous in terms of projected lack of growth between 2016 and 2024.

More workers in Aberdeenshire are employed in professional occupations than the Scotland average, and in skilled trades in manufacturing and agriculture. Replacement demand will offer the greatest number of openings to 2024, highest in professional occupations, sales & customer service, and elementary posts. Professional occupations tend to add value to an economy. A challenge for Aberdeenshire is to continue growth in the professional services sector at a precarious time for the oil and gas sector, and to avoid retreating towards a low pay low value added traditional rural economy.

Teacher Recruitment

Teacher recruitment is a recognised issue in Aberdeenshire. Recruitment pressures for permanent and supply staff in schools have been more acute in north Aberdeenshire, however schools across the authority, both primary and secondary, have been affected22.

Figure 11 - Index of Aberdeenshire Teacher & School pupil numbers, 1995-2016 (School Pupil Projections to 2020)

Index of Teacher count The index graph (left) demonstrates that teacher numbers have been increasing over the past couple of decades while pupil numbers, having dipped, are projected to approach 1995 levels by 2020. 100 The index graph also suggests Aberdeenshire Council is sensitive to movements in pupil Pupil no. numbers (particularly since 2011), with an Index of School Pupil count Projection increase in teacher numbers moving in tandem with an increase in the number of school pupils. This is indicative of smart planning measures.

Source: Scottish Government

A number of initiatives have been undertaken to address the recruitment issue, including engaging with recruitment agencies; implementing a Relocation Incentive Scheme; positively engaging with current probationers; offering financial support to utilise the skills, experience and qualifications of those from the oil industry, allowing them to move into secondary teaching posts (The Ties programme); and initiating a flexible approach to working, including child support and extended nursery provision for teachers and probationers with children.

There are also moves to build specific microsites to fill vacancies in geographical areas that are experiencing greater difficulties in filling vacancies by promoting them as attractive places to live and work. Bringing renowned institutions to the area, such as Fraserburgh’s plan to establish a north east hub for the Royal Conservatoire of Scotland,

37 is one example of promoting the area to prospective teaching candidates, and promises wider community benefits.

As a result of employing more teachers than originally budgeted for there will be a financial pressure on the teachers’ budget lines, likely a result of the success of recent recruitment campaigns. However, the greater benefit of recruiting high quality permanent teachers is to be welcomed23.

Teacher Age Profile

The age profile of teachers in Aberdeenshire is changing. Nearly 35% of all Aberdeenshire teachers are over the age of 50 and 11% are over the age of 60. Forecasts show that, unless new staff are recruited, by 2021 nearly half of all teachers will be over the age of 50 and 20% will be near retirement age24. However, the measures already undertaken to boost teacher numbers in the area appear to be working, and therefore the inherent risks associated with the current trajectory are somewhat diminished.

Aberdeenshire Council has suggested to the Scottish Government that initial teacher education could be improved by devolving responsibilities to local authorities or regions along with related workforce planning for teachers25.

Parental Engagement

In future, HMIe Inspectors will look at Parental Involvement/Parental Engagement as part of the inspection of a school. Areas such as the development of family learning, work undertaken in partnership with parents and surveys or satisfaction data, will be part of the evidence base to evaluate parental engagement. Such a move will doubtless pose challenges given that parental involvement and expectations will vary from school to school3. That said, parental involvement in schools is key in raising general attainment and closing the gap between the highest and lowest achievers.

After a series of self-evaluation exercises in Aberdeenshire, areas for improvement were identified to ensure service delivery is equitable and consistent and that the quality of parental engagement is uniformly better. Improvements include: building positive relationships and communicating effectively with parents; supporting all stakeholders to ensure a shared understanding and appreciation of parental involvement/engagement and family learning; and undertaking collaborative actions with internal/external agencies which, among other things, should allow the swift diffusion of good practice throughout the region, perhaps via the Northern Alliance.

3 Reasons for low parental involvement/engagement could include: a lack of time, especially if both parents are working full-time, part-time or in shift patterns, or childcare arrangements prevent them from dedicating further time to the school; language barriers where English is not the parents’ first language (especially relevant in the north east corner of Aberdeenshire); lack of confidence on the part of the parent in terms of their own academic ability; pressure imparted on parents by their children who may dislike the idea of their parents being increasingly involved in their school life, perhaps more relevant to secondary schools given the age cohort of pupils (i.e. .

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HEALTH

Public health is the science and art of promoting and protecting health and wellbeing, preventing ill-health and prolonging life through the organised efforts of society. Health care is not the main determinant of our health. Estimates of impact show that social and economic conditions determine more26. Many aspects of our lives combine to create our health and wellbeing right across the life-course. Local authority functions can influence public health in many complex and inter-related ways including: the best start in life, healthy schools and pupils, helping people find good jobs and stay in work, active and safe travel, warmer and safer homes, access to green and open spaces and the role of leisure services, strong communities, wellbeing and resilience, Public protection and environmental health, Health and spatial planning

Aberdeenshire has a better health profile than most areas of Scotland, in terms of life expectancy, mental health and common physical health problems such as respiratory or heart disease. On the vast majority of health and wellbeing indicators, for example prescriptions for anxiety and depression, the uptake of adult health screening programmes and the number of adults claiming disability welfare benefits, Aberdeenshire rates very positively. However, a high number of people smoke, obesity is a concern as it is across Scotland, and deaths and injuries from road traffic accidents in the area are relatively high.

Hospital services in Banff and Buchan are provided at Chalmers Hospital, Banff, and Fraserburgh Hospital. Parts of Banff experience relatively low life expectancy rates, lower than Macduff for both males and females, and both areas have relatively high mortality rates. However, on the whole, life expectancy is higher than the Scottish average.

There are pockets of deprivation associated with accessing public services, particularly for a number of residents in the rural outskirts of Banff/Macduff. The area also continues to face deep-seated issues associated with problematic alcohol use and other drugs that directly and indirectly threaten the wellbeing and economic prospects of certain areas. As the appended area dashboards show, both Banff and Macduff have one of the highest rates of alcohol-related hospital admissions per head of population in Aberdeenshire, although alcohol-related deaths are fewer on a population basis.

The table over the page highlights areas where Banff’s rates differ materially from Aberdeenshire as a whole. ‘Differ materially’ is given to mean Banff’s rate is either at least 25% greater or smaller than Aberdeenshire’s equivalent rate. And the rate latest to the latest year for which data are available.

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Table 11 - Selection of health-related indicators for the Banff Intermediate Zone, compared to Aberdeenshire average. All figures are rates based on the population of the relevant demographic group.

Indicator Latest Period Banff Shire Difference Drug related hospital stays 2012/13-2014/15 118.4 42.4 179.2% Child obesity in primary 1 2015/16 25.0 10.5 138.4% Crime rate 2014 53.3 22.6 136.3% Working age population claiming out-of-work benefits 2015 12.5 5.7 119.8% Adults claiming incapacity benefit/severe disability allowance 2015 7.2 3.3 114.6% Working age population employment deprived 2014 13.0 6.3 105.6% Mothers smoking during pregnancy 2012/13-2014/15 27.2 13.4 102.5% Population within 500 metres of derelict site 2015 13.5 6.7 101.7% Child Poverty 2012 13.4 7.3 84.2% Population income deprived 2014 12.4 6.8 81.5% Patients with a psychiatric hospitalisation 2012-2014 353.0 201.6 75.1% 60+ pop'n claiming pension credits 2015 5.9 3.4 73.7% Patients (65+) with multiple emergency hospitalisations 2013-2015 6117.1 3599.9 69.9% Alcohol related hospital stays 2014/15 548.5 340.0 61.3% Child dental health in primary 7 2015/16 75.0 50.1 49.6% Patients hospitalised with coronary heart disease 2013-2015 544.3 377.9 44.0% Death all ages 2012-2014 1473.3 1075.8 36.9% Single adult dwellings 2014 39.4 29.0 36.0% Patients registered with cancer 2012-2014 768.6 592.2 29.8% Early deaths from cancer (< 75s) 2012-2014 189.4 147.3 28.6% Patients with emergency hospitalisations 2013-2015 7324.8 5857.5 25.1% Low weight live births at term 2013/14-2015/16 0.9 1.5 -37.2% Deaths from alcohol conditions 2010-2014 5.2 9.7 -46.9% Deaths from suicide (inc. undetermined intent) 2010-2014 5.2 12.0 -56.8%

Source: ScotPho

Table 12 - Selection of health-related indicators for the Macduff Intermediate Zone, compared to Aberdeenshire average. All figures are rates based on the population of the relevant demographic group.

Indicator Latest Period Macduff Shire Difference Alcohol related hospital stays 2014/15 799.0 340.0 135.0% Working age population employment deprived 2014 12.1 6.3 92.3% Working age population claiming out-of-work benefits 2015 10.9 5.7 90.9% Population income deprived 2014 12.8 6.8 88.4% Adults claiming incapacity benefit/severe disability allowance 2015 6.1 3.3 83.4% Mothers smoking during pregnancy 2012/13-2014/15 24.2 13.4 80.2% Child Poverty 2012 11.9 7.3 63.7% 60+ pop'n claiming pension credits 2015 5.6 3.4 63.4% Crime rate 2014 33.4 22.6 47.9% Low weight live births at term 2013/14-2015/16 2.1 1.5 44.3% Patients (65+) with multiple emergency hospitalisations 2013-2015 5068.9 3599.9 40.8% Patients hospitalised with asthma 2012-2014 76.9 59.1 30.2% Single adult dwellings 2014 37.4 29.0 28.9% Patients hospitalised with coronary heart disease 2013-2015 274.8 377.9 -27.3% Babies exclusively breastfed at 6-8 weeks 2013/14-2015/16 23.7 34.2 -30.9% Deaths from alcohol conditions 2010-2014 5.7 9.7 -41.7% Deaths from suicide (inc. undetermined intent) 2010-2014 4.7 12.0 -60.6%

Source: ScotPho

As the tables above show, both Banff and Macduff experience relatively poor outcomes in relation to drug-related and alcohol-related hospital stays respectively when compared to Aberdeenshire as a whole. Conversely, alcohol-related deaths in both areas are lower on a population basis.

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Alcohol / Drug Treatment Waiting List

Throughout Aberdeenshire as a whole, the percentage of patients waiting to receive alcohol / drug treatments within 3 weeks has decreased slightly over the previous few quarters. This is mainly due to the following issues:

1. Staffing issues within the statutory services in Aberdeenshire, this includes sickness absence and resignations. Recruitment is currently taking place to fill a CPN post. Unfortunately, there is not enough staffing flexibility at the moment to provide backfill. 2. High caseloads of clients in North Aberdeenshire, due in large part to the level of prescribing currently managed by CPNs (as there are little or no alternatives). Discussions are ongoing within the health and social sphere as to how alternative treatment arrangements may be provided, through options such as non-medical prescribing; encouraging GPs to take patients back; alternative, lower level interventions for those deemed appropriate; and investigating the possibility of a stepped care model next year. 3. Recording issues have also impacted on the ability to refer individuals to the correct service quickly. Administrative duties are being reallocated, and training is taking place to rectify this particular situation.

Alcohol Brief Interventions

Alcohol Brief Interventions (ABIs) have proven to be a highly effective and evidence- based early intervention, providing an important opportunity to highlight potentially harmful behaviours and provide individuals with the tools to make informed decisions about how they drink and how to reduce the risk to their health.

Throughout Aberdeenshire, the number of ABIs delivered have tended to fall below the quarterly target. This has effected the following:

1. As a key priority targeted engagement with GP practices that have low levels of ABI delivery4 and high levels of unscheduled admissions due to alcohol-related conditions. This is to quality assure screening and clarify patient referral pathways. 2. Identify intelligence-led improvements in conjunction with the H&SCP Locality Managers as part of the Locality Planning process and as part of the wider work anticipate in relation to the Aberdeenshire Local Outcome Improvement Plan (LOIP), specifically the priority entitled: Changing Aberdeenshire’s Relationship with Alcohol. 3. Roll out a programme of ABI training / CPD for Primary Care staff. 4. Ensure that improvements in alcohol treatment waiting times and service capacity are communicated to frontline Primary Care staff.

Community Planning partners are committed to supporting and building confident, skilled, influential and active communities and have undertaken a number of programmes and community-focused initiatives designed to encourage a debate about boosting community capacity. One of the ways in which this may be achieved, according to NHS Grampian, is through encouraging people, particularly older people, to take on some form

4 a number of Primary Care Practices delivered zero ABIs during the most recent year

41 of volunteering role. This benefits both the volunteer and the community alike. Service developments include improving community transport to offer better access to hospital and health appointments for rural areas.

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HOUSING

Accessible, affordable housing and attractive local environments can contribute significantly to wider aims to tackle poverty and health inequalities and to build confidence and capacity in communities. High quality housing and its surrounding environment helps to give children the best start in life - for example through play areas where they can develop social skills and improve physical health27. Unsuitable housing impacts directly on health and providing appropriate housing of suitable quality and standard offers the potential to reduce costs to health and social care, and allow older people to remain independent.

House prices have risen over the medium term in North East Scotland. However, the fall in oil price from 2014 and the resulting uncertainty within the local economy is inevitably having an impact on the housing market. Figure 12 charts median house prices within Banff, Macduff and Aberdeenshire as a whole since 2003.

Figure 12 – Median house prices in Aberdeenshire, Banff and Macduff, 2003 – 2017

£250,000

£200,000

£150,000

£100,000 Median House Price (£) Price House Median

£50,000

£0

Banff Macduff Aberdeenshire

Source: Registers of Scotland; Scotstat

House prices in Aberdeenshire are considerably higher than the Scotland average (£145,000). Within Aberdeenshire prices tend to be higher in areas close to Aberdeen City and also in Deeside. Towns further from Aberdeen and particularly in the north of Aberdeenshire generally have considerably lower average prices.

.

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Proportion of Socially Rented Properties Indicative of Low Income Areas

A key function of social housing is to provide accommodation that is affordable to people on low incomes.

Figure 13 (below) maps census 2011 data, specifically socially rented properties in Banff and Macduff. The higher the proportion of socially rented properties, the darker the colour. Therefore, areas shaded orange and red may be indicative of low income areas.

Figure 13 – Depiction of socially rented properties in Banff and Macduff per Census Output Area, 2011

89.4% of the dwellings in this area were socially rented. Residents in this area were more likely to report their health as ‘bad’ (16%) relative to other areas in Banff / Macduff. This area also contained the highest proportion of residents with ‘no qualifications’, and a lower proportion economically active. These outcomes may be explained by the fact that the majority (77.4%) of residents in this area were over the age of 65. Source: Census 2011 (Most were one-person households and a higher-than-average proportion were female.)

SMID data provides that this area is among the most deprived areas in Scotland in terms of crime (likely related to the night-time economy), but one of the least deprived in terms of geographic access to services.

These areas also exhibit certain other socio-economic characteristics, as the text box in Figure 13 suggests.

In fact, it’s possible to diagrammatically show the relationship between higher rates of social housing (i.e. lower income areas) and a variety of other socio-economic issues. Figure 14 (below) charts this relationship by utilising the correlation coefficient, a number between +1 and −1 calculated so as to represent the linear interdependence of two variables. The closer the coefficient number is to either -1 or +1, the stronger the relationship between the two variables.

In the example below, one variable is constant – the average proportion of socially rented properties per Data Zone in Banff and Macduff. The other variables, taken from SIMD 2016, are presented below, to the left of the chart.

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Figure 14 – Correlation between social rented housing (Census 2011) and a number of SIMD 2016 indicators

Negative Correlation Positive Correlation

No Central Heating 0.07

Overcrowding 0.55

Crime Rate -0.28

NEET 0.55

Pupil Attainment -0.53

School Attendance -0.43

Emergency Hospital Admissions 0.38

% of pop. prescriped medication for depression, etc. 0.69

Standard Mortality Ratio 0.00

Comparative Illness Factor 0.64

Employment Deprivation 0.46

Income Deprivation 0.67

-1.00 -0.75 -0.50 -0.25 0.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00

Very Strong Moderate Weak Moderate Very Strong

Strength of Relationship

Source: Census 2011; SIMD 2016

Perhaps the best way to interpret this chart is by way of example. Therefore, it is possible to say that, where the proportion of socially rented properties is relatively high (in the context of Banff and Macduff), so too are the following:

 The proportion of the population deemed to be income deprived;  The proportion of the population prescribed medication for depression, etc;  The proportion of the population claiming disability/incapacity benefits (as measured by the Comparative Illness Factor).  The proportion of overcrowded households; and  The proportion of young people not in education, employment or training (NEET).

Conversely, pupil attainment and school attendance are more likely to be lower in such areas.

There appears to be little or no relationship between socially rented properties and whether or not it has central heating. And no relation exists with regards to the Standard Mortality Ratio of the relevant population (i.e. no more or less deaths than can be expected relative to the general population).

The purpose of this section is not to denigrate social housing – far from it. Rather, the intention is to highlight certain socio-economic outcomes for people on lower incomes, who are more likely to reside in social housing than those on higher incomes. Social

45 housing is therefore merely used as a tool to identify areas in which individuals on lower incomes are more likely to reside.

Incidentally, according to the 2011 Census, there are a couple of postcodes with a relatively high proportion of both socially rented properties and families with dependent children. Both are in Banff - AB45 1AZ (near Bridge Road) and AB45 1GD (to the south east of Banff Academy).

Future Development

It is anticipated that the following developments will materialise in Banff and Buchan over the next few years.

Table 13 – Anticipated future developments in Banff and Buchan

Settlement Number of Affordable Units Provider Year Fraserburgh Grampian Housing 35 units 2017/18 – 2018/19 Cross Street/ Mid Street Association Macduff Langstane Housing 14 units 2017/18 Law Hill Association Langstane Housing Portsoy 12 units 2017/18 Association Fraserburgh Merryhillock Land for 32 units TBC 2018/19 Macduff Langstane Housing 26 units Potentially 2018/19 Fife Street Association Portsoy 44 units Sanctury 2018/19 Campbell Hospital Fraserburgh Land for 30 units TBC 2020/21 Kirkton Site

Source: Infrastructure Services, Aberdeenshire Council

Challenges

The provision of affordable housing is affected by a number of factors. These include the availability of accessible and affordable land; the Housing Service and it's RSL partners do not have a large land bank of land for development and the majority of future new affordable housing development will come as a result of affordable housing contributions through the Local Development Plan's Affordable Housing Policy and the timescales for this land's release will be dictated by the development industry's build out rate.

The availability and timing of grant funding to assist in the delivery of affordable housing is also critical as this will need to align with timescales of the construction programmes for those sites being delivered as a consequence of a S75. The financial capacity of the Housing Service's HRA (Housing Revenue Account) as well as the business plans of Registered Social Landlords also impact upon the provision of affordable housing, in that these business models will have to balance the provision of affordable housing against their other priorities such as achieving energy efficiency standards. Likewise the resources and capacity within the industry as a whole and in particular the affordable housing providers need to be sufficient to be able to deliver the number of new housing units required in order to meet housing need.

46

TRANSPORT & ACCESS

In a rural area such as Aberdeenshire integrated and connected transport and travel is a necessity providing connections to both global markets and local towns and villages. If Aberdeenshire is to grow and continue to be economically vibrant, an efficient transport network is vital in supporting these aspirations.

Without suitable transport opportunities for all in the Aberdeenshire there is a danger of social inclusion particularly for the disadvantaged and vulnerable members of society.

Aberdeenshire comprises Scotland’s second largest population of people living in small settlements and experiences critical accessibility challenges that create real issues. A fit for purpose transport network is crucial both to Aberdeenshire’s economic growth and the connectivity between communities. An increase in the number of new houses and a rise in economic growth has led to more pressure on the existing transport infrastructure.

Car driving is the dominant travel to work mode in the North East although levels are lower in north Aberdeenshire where car ownership levels are low relative to the more affluent and rural areas of Aberdeenshire.

Vehicle registrations in the AB42 and AB43 postcode areas has increased considerably over the period 2010-2016, albeit the last few Quarters have seen registrations stagnate and the proportion of vehicles with a SORN increase. (Banff and Macduff both lie within the AB43 postcode area.) The fact that the general area has experienced an increase in vehicle numbers could suggest a degree of collective optimism about future prospects, which may in turn translate into a willingness on the part of some to seek employment. Vehicle ownership is both an important measure of overall affluence and an indicator of likely public transport demand in an area. Stagnating vehicle registrations and a rise in the proportion of vehicles no longer on the road may therefore portend or indicate a degree of financial hardship.

Travel to Work (Census 2011)

Census Travel to Work data suggests a large proportion of Banff residents work in the town. Almost three times the number of residents who reside in Macduff travel to Banff than vice versa. This suggests Banff is the more attractive of the two towns in terms of employment. This assumption is bolstered by the fact that residents from most surrounding areas – even those east of Macduff – tend to follow the same pattern.

47

A947 Route Improvement Strategy

In March 2106, Aberdeenshire Council’s Infrastructure Services Committee approved the A947 Route Improvement Strategy. The strategy, which was developed throughout 2015, is designed to provide a long term plan for improving the A947 between Aberdeen and Banff over the next 20 years. The ultimate goal of the strategy and subsequent interventions is to ‘develop a route which is fit for purpose of connecting the communities along the route in a safe, effective and sustainable manner, while fully supporting the regeneration activity in north Aberdeenshire.’

An Action Plan was subsequently developed, which comprises both short and long term actions, and includes ‘soft’ measures such as enforcement, education, and engagement programmes; and ‘hard’ measures such as overtaking lanes and route upgrade and realignment options.

Geographic Access

Aberdeenshire is generally recognised as being geographically deprived in terms of the time it takes to arrive at various local amenities from a central point, with most of Aberdeenshire’s 340 Data Zones among the 20% most deprived in Scotland. Figure 15 visually depicts the extent of Aberdeenshire’s deprivation in the context of geographic access – a picture shared by many, if not all, rural areas throughout Scotland.

Figure 15 – Geographic Access Domain per SIMD Decile, North East of Scotland, SIMD 2016

Source: SIMD 2016

Banff / Macduff Surrounding Area

48

Data Zones within both Banff and Macduff tend to score relatively favourably in terms of the average time it takes access various local amenities by car or public transport, as depicted by the blue Data Zones (right).

Table 14 below presents the average time taken (in minutes) to access various amenities / services in three geographic areas – Scotland, Aberdeenshire, Banff and Macduff – by car and public transport.

Table 14 – Average time taken to access various amenities by car and public transport, broken down by deprivation decile and general area – Scotland, Aberdeenshire, Banff, and Macduff, SIMD 2016

Average Drive Time To: Average Public Transport Time To: Deprivation Decile / Fuel Primary Secondary Retail Post Retail Area GP Post Office GP Station School School Centre Office Centre 1 (Most Deprived) 8.3 8.7 5.9 5.6 14.3 14 23.0 17.1 31.5 2 4.6 4.7 3.5 2.8 7.5 6.7 14.3 11.1 17.9 3 3.8 3.8 3.0 2.5 6.3 5.6 11.9 9.6 15.1 4 3.4 3.4 2.7 2.3 5.7 5 10.6 8.7 13.6 5 3.3 2.9 2.5 2.3 5.3 4.6 9.3 8.0 12.2 6 3.0 2.7 2.4 2.2 4.8 4.1 8.5 7.6 11.2 7 2.9 2.5 2.2 2.1 4.6 3.8 7.8 6.9 10.3 8 2.7 2.1 2.0 1.9 4.6 3.6 6.9 6.3 9.6 9 2.5 1.8 1.8 1.8 4.3 2.9 6.0 5.7 8.0 10 (Least Deprived) 2.3 1.4 1.5 1.7 3.8 2.2 4.5 4.7 6.0

Scotland 3.7 3.4 2.7 2.5 6.1 5.2 10.3 8.6 13.5 Aberdeenshire 5.1 4.6 3.4 2.9 7.9 7.3 14.3 10.6 18.2 Banff 1.9 2.5 1.8 2.4 2.5 2.7 8.5 7.4 8.2 Macduff 2.8 1.7 1.8 2.1 6.2 2.0 6.5 6.5 6.7

Source: SIMD 2016

The data shows that both Banff and Macduff compare favourably to the rest of Aberdeenshire in terms of the time it takes on average to access various services from a Data Zone’s central point.

The data also arguably shows that, despite most of Aberdeenshire’s Data Zones ranking in the 40% most geographically deprived in Scotland, the average times to access services throughout the area is not too dissimilar to the Scottish rates – a matter of minutes difference in most cases.

However, there will no doubt be disparities between and within Data Zones depending on how well residents are serviced in terms of transportation.

Digital Access

Digital is a key driver of economic productivity and innovation, job creation and internationalisation and supports inclusive growth that is broad-based across individuals and cities, regions and rural areas. Ensuring that everyone can benefit from the digital world, through supporting a digitally skilled and resilient nation, tackling barriers to digital inclusion and ensuring digital connectivity across the whole of the region will be key to realising the benefits of the digital world.

49

Digital connectivity is an essential component of national infrastructure and its contribution to productivity growth is widely recognised.

 A study for the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development ( OECD) of 25 OECD countries between 1996 and 2007 estimated that a 10% increase in broadband penetration increased Gross Domestic Product ( GDP) per capita growth by between 0.9 to 1.5 percentage points.  In addition, a report commissioned by Scottish Futures Trust found that becoming a world leader in digitalisation could increase GDP in Scotland by £13 billion by 2030.

Reliable digital infrastructure can reduce costs and enhance revenues for businesses, promote flexible and remote working, and has important inclusion impacts, presenting opportunities for those located in remote locations.

Buchan Broadband Coverage and Usage

Ofcom produces annual broadband data disaggregated to postcode level. It is therefore possible to align postcodes to Intermediate Zones to arrive at an average for local areas. The latest dataset relates to June 2016, and is therefore a useful snapshot of broadband coverage and usage in relatively small geographic areas.

Table 15 presents broadband data for both Banff and Macduff, with Aberdeenshire included for comparison. Given that nearly 100% of premises in both Banff and Macduff may access superfast broadband, it may be said the towns are well serviced in that regard. (It should be borne in mind that much of Aberdeenshire is rural in nature and therefore cost-related issues dictate that superfast broadband is likely to be less ubiquitous than in more urban areas of Scotland).

Table 15 – Broadband data, Banff, Macduff, and Aberdeenshire, June 2016

Superfast Average data Minimum Maximum Median Broadband Area usage (Giga download download download availability (% Bytes) speed (Mbit/s) speed (Mbit/s) speed (Mbit/s) premises) Banff 98.6 105.3 8.7 52.8 21.3 Macduff 97.4 117.5 10.5 57.0 21.0 Aberdeenshire 49.1 94.4 5.1 37.1 13.9

Source: Ofcom

There is a very strong positive correlation between the availability of superfast broadband and average data usage, that is to say, when superfast broadband availability is high, so too is the average data usage in the area.

50

CRIME

Crime has been argued to discourage investment, reduce competitiveness and create uncertainty and inefficiency. Crime not only leads to both material and immaterial costs for those who have become victimised but also burdens society as a whole with both material and immaterial costs28.

The concept of community safety is broad, encompassing many dimensions. In general, the safety of our communities depends on the environment – natural, built and social – in which we live our lives and also on the actions and behaviours of both ourselves and others. Key factors include physical infrastructure, alcohol and other general habits, technology, legislation and associated policies, and the degree of mutual support and respect within communities.

The crime data reinforces the idea that Aberdeenshire is among the least crime-affected areas in the country, with a crime rate some 44% below that of Scotland on a population basis. SIMD data tends to bolster official crime data – as do local surveys, with 98% of Aberdeenshire residents stating they feel Aberdeenshire is a safe place to live. However, there are areas that tend to experience elevated levels of crime and disorder, most notably Peterhead and Fraserburgh. Indeed, Banff & Buchan and Buchan have together accounted for over half the total number of recorded crime in Aberdeenshire since 2010/11.

Despite a comparatively low rate of crime, all Crime types in Aberdeenshire increased over the course of 2015/16 relative to the previous year. The greatest increase in both absolute and percentage terms is associated with the category "Other Crimes", which includes sub-categories such as "Drugs" and "Crimes against public justice". Within the "Drugs" sub-category, the offence of "Possession of drugs" account's for the lion's share of the increase, followed by charges related to the supply of drugs. Indeed, these two specific charges accounted for over 60% of the increase in the general "Other Crimes" category, and a quarter of the increase in total recorded crime.

However, it does not necessarily follow that a greater number of possession/supply charges equates to a greater prevalence of drugs, although that may well be the case. It could also signify increased intelligence on drug activities, better targeted stop/searches, and a greater number of pro-active operations.

51

Figure 16 - Total Recorded Crime broken down as per the Scottish Crime Series Bulletin

5000

4000

3000

2000

1000

0 Crimes of Fire-raising, Non-sexual crimes Other crimes Sexual crimes dishonesty vandalism etc. of violence 2010/11 3910 2388 1289 258 205 2011/12 3587 2161 1230 322 158 2012/13 3691 1808 1076 316 108 2013/14 3688 1686 1111 271 117 2014/15 2744 1450 996 343 142 2015/16 2914 1484 1204 407 166

"Drugs" is a sub-category of "Other Crimes", and is broken down as follows: 700

600

500

400

300

200

100

0 Supply Production Illegal Possession of possession w.i. manufacture or Bringing drugs Drugs, other importation of drugs to supply etc of cultivation of into a Prison offences drugs drugs drugs 2010/11 535 130 22 1 2 2011/12 577 97 22 2012/13 469 68 13 15 1 2013/14 481 80 15 11 2 2014/15 481 83 16 10 1 2015/16 569 125 13 12 3

Source: Police Scotland

52

Percentage of Offenders Intoxicated at the Time of the Crime

Figure 17 presents data on the percentage of offenders deemed to be intoxicated at the time of the crime, 2010/11 to 2015/16.

Figure 17 - Percentage of offenders intoxicated at the time of the crime per crime category, 2010/11 to 2015/16

50.0% 45.0% 40.0% 35.0% 30.0% 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% Non-sexual crimes Crimes of Fire-raising, All Crimes Sexual crimes Other crimes of violence dishonesty vandalism etc. 2010/11 35.6% 42.3% 34.1% 24.1% 42.0% 40.6% 2011/12 35.9% 43.8% 18.9% 23.8% 42.2% 41.0% 2012/13 34.1% 43.3% 13.6% 22.5% 36.5% 42.2% 2013/14 32.5% 40.6% 18.6% 22.6% 39.8% 36.0% 2014/15 29.0% 43.0% 15.4% 15.5% 37.1% 32.1% 2015/16 27.3% 41.1% 14.4% 19.1% 34.8% 26.9%

Source: Police Scotland

Overall, fewer offenders appear to be intoxicated at the material time of the crime. The proportion reduced from 35.6% of total offenders in 2010/11 to 27.3% last year.

Those charged with sexual crimes are the least likely to be intoxicated at the time of the crime. Those charged with non-sexual crimes of violence are most likely to be intoxicated at the time of the crime. Serious Assault accounts for the greatest proportion of crimes within the non-sexual crimes of violence category. This specific crime type is also associated with the highest proportion of intoxicated offenders.

Those who commit crimes in the most deprived quintile are far more likely to be intoxicated than those who commit crimes in the least deprived quintile (41% versus 24%). This may in part be down to the fact that a greater proportion of the crimes in the most deprived quintile are also those more likely to be associated with an intoxicated offender, e.g. 'non-sexual crimes of violence', and 'other crimes'.

The following page presents statistical data analogous to that found in the Scottish Crime Bulletin - Recorded Crime in Scotland 2015/16 - but within an Aberdeenshire context.

The page subsequent to that presents statistics in relation to road traffic casualties in Aberdeenshire.

53 Aberdeenshire Total Recorded Crime

What makes up Total Recorded Crime? Change over time Number of Crimes, Offenders & Intoxicated Offenders per Quarter (01 Apr 2010 to Mar 2016)

Approximately 36% of offenders are intoxicated at the time of the crime

2,500

2,000

1,500

1,000

500

0 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16

Crimes Offenders Intoxicated Offenders Number of Crimes per Year and per Crime Category (Apr 2010 - Mar 2016). Includes % of Offenders Intoxicated Area Breakdown (Apr 2010-Mar 2016)

No. of % Area / Location No. of Crimes Offenders Intoxicated

Banff & Buchan 10,570 2,113 39% Buchan 10,922 2,144 38% Formartine 4,075 1,042 27% Garioch 6,170 1,470 31% K & M 4,968 1,248 28% Marr 4,324 953 34% SIMD Quintile 1 17,425 3,638 42% SIMD Quintile 2 7,101 1,964 31% SIMD Quintile 3 5,896 1,514 27% SIMD Quintile 4 5,641 1,487 26% SIMD Quintile 5 4,625 1,316 24% Residential 13,794 3,713 32% Commercial 8,621 2,468 30% Conveyance 6,515 776 34% Public Place 4,810 2,641 42% Other 7,490 2,297 27% Note: Quintile 1 = Most Deprived; Quintile 5 = Least Deprived; 'Conveyance' relates to motor vehicles, principally cars.

54

Aberdeenshire Road Traffic Casualties

2015 Casual Severity Change over time Casualty Severity per Quarter (Jan 2010 to Sep 2016)

Number of Casualties per Year (Jan 2010 to Dec 2015) Area Breakdown (Jan 2010-Dec 2015)

Area Fatal Serious Slight Banff & Buchan 20 117 328

Buchan 14 147 405 Formartine 21 201 432 Garioch 14 222 566 K & M 25 193 419 Marr 23 222 438

Casualty Type Fatal Serious Slight Driver/Rider 20 117 328 Area Fatal Serious Slight Passenger 19 251 638 Pedestrian 20 74 158 Banff & Buchan 20 117 328 Age Group Fatal Serious Slight Buchan 14 147 405 Child 5 69 201 16-25 21 270 768 Formartine 21 201 432 26-35 18 192 463 36-45 22 170 443 CasualtyGarioch Type Fatal 14 Serious222 Slight 566 46-55 14 163 319 56-65 17 111 220 K & M 25 193 419 Driver/Rider 20 117 328 66-75 7 71 105 76 + 13 56 69 PassengerMarr 1923 251222 638438

Age Group Fatal Serious Slight Pedestrian 20 74 158 Child 5 69 201

55

Intermediate Zones Overview – Explanatory Note 1 of 2

Mixed Relatively good Outcomes Outcomes

Relatively poor Mixed Outcomes Outcomes

Most of what follows should be self-explanatory. However, a couple of diagrams may require an explanation.

The first one is shown above. It depicts the ranking of the Intermediate Zone (IZ) based on 6 indicators (Child Poverty, S4 Tariff Score, Positive Destinations, SIMD Crime Rate, Emergency Hospital Admissions and Early Mortality).

The black dot denotes the IZ’s ranking relative to all others in Scotland. The closer the dot is to the bottom-left of the graph, the poorer the outcomes relative to Scotland as a whole. Ideally, the dot should be in the green segment and as close to the top right of the graph as possible..

Data source: CPP Outcomes Profile Tool

56

Intermediate Zones Overview – Explanatory Note 2 of 2

Black dots represent Data Zones within the Intermediate Zone The other diagram that may require an explanation is shown to the left. This diagram represents SIMD 2016 data. There are 8 columns – each representing an SIMD Domain (e.g. Income, Employment, etc), as well as the overall ranking. 10 The black dots represent Data Zones within the relevant Intermediate Zone. This particular 9 example relates to Fetteresso, Netherley and Catter – one of the least deprived areas in 8 Aberdeenshire. As the Fetteresso, Netherley and Catter Intermediate Zone contains 5 Data 10 = least deprived 7 Zones, there are 5 dots in each column, most of which are clustered in the green zone. 6

5 The fact that each of the Data Zones are relatively close together suggests few disparities 1 = most deprived 4 exist between Data Zones. The greatest disparity within this particular Intermediate Zone Deprivation Decile Deprivation 3 relates to the Crime Domain. This is demonstrated by the relatively large distance or gap between the lowest and highest ranked Data Zones. 2

1 Intermediate Zones with a high concentration of black dots in the upper part of the graph tend to be among the least deprived in Scotland and residents generally experience relatively good outcomes. In this particular example, according to SIMD 2016, Fetteresso, Netherley and Catter is geographically deprived but is generally devoid of other forms of deprivation. The opposite would be the case were the black dots positioned towards the bottom of the diagram.

It’s important to note that the SIMD is a relative data tool. That is to say, Data Zones are ranked according to their relative position within the complete list of Scottish Data Zones. Each column represents an SIMD Domain. When a Data Zone is positioned among the 10% most deprived in Scotland, for instance, it simply means that at least 90% are less deprived relative to that particular Data Zone. The (The Overall Ranking is also shown for completeness.) difference in terms of the actual indicator(s) used to determine individual rankings may be very slight, in some instances, between the most deprived deciles and least deprived deciles.

57

Aberchirder and Whitehills Overview Population: Dwellings:

3,849 1,936

Map of Aberchirder and Whitehills SIMD 2016 Rankings per Domain (1 = Most Deprived; 10 = Least Deprived) Scottish Context

Aberchirder and Whitehills is a relatively large Intermediate Zone to Mixed Relatively good 10 the west and south of the Banff area, Outcomes Outcomes 9 with 5 Data Zones ‘nested’ within it.

8 Overall, these Data Zones are ‘middling’ in terms of their 7 deprivation ranking, with little to 48.1 square 6 separate them.

miles 5 There are disparities between the 4 Data Zones, most notably in relation Deprivation Decile Deprivation to the Crime Domain where two of 3 the Data Zones are among the 10% Relatively poor Mixed 2 least deprived in the country, and one Outcomes Outcomes 1 is ranked within the middle range.

Generally speaking, the Data Zones The national Community Planning tool appears within this area rank relatively poorly to bolster the SIMD data in so far as the in relation to Geographic Access and, middling range is concerned. However, the to a lesser extent, Education. A general area (denoted as a black dot above) number of Data Zones rank well both falls within the green zone suggesting it Median House Price (2015): £143,700 in terms of Health and in terms of compares favourably to many areas in Housing. Scotland.

Aberchirder and Whitehills Population / Life Expectancy Selection of Indicators

Lowest Highest 90+ in Shire in Shire 80-84 Indicator Value No. Trend

70-74 % of children living in poverty (2012) 12.2 - 60-64 Approx. % of children (aged <20) receiving child benefits (2015) 73.8 625 - 50-54 49.9% 50.1% Approx. % of children (aged <20) benefitting from tax credits (2014) 75.6 640 - 40-44 Males Females % of 16-64 population in receipt of JSA benefits (June 2017) 0.9 20

Age Group Age 30-34 Approx. % of people (aged 16-64) on Universal Credit (June 2017) 0.7 16 20-24 No. of NINo registrations to adult overseas nationals (2016/17) 6.0 - - 10-14 % of working age population income deprived (SIMD 2016) 9.0 350 - 0-4 % of working age population employment deprived (SIMD 2016) 7.6 170 - 250 150 50 50 150 250 Accessing local amenities via public transport (average no. of mins.) 9.8 - - Alcohol-related hospital stays per 100,000 population (2014/15) 461.2 20 Prescribed drugs per 10,000 pop - anxiety/depression (2014/15) 16.6 649 Population per Age Group Life Expectancy (Years) % of P1 children classified as ‘obese’ (2015/16) 12.2 6 M F Total Dental health - % of P7 children with no obvious tooth decay (2015) 85.7 30 0-15 352 339 691 Secondary school attendance rate (2010/11) 92.2 - 16-34 350 353 703 Average Tariff Score for S4 pupils (2012/13) 181.0 -

35-64 779 776 1555 Crimes per 10,000 population (2014) 35.1 137

65+ 440 460 900 77.7 84.7 % of dwellings in Council Tax bands A-C (2016) 60.7 1175 -

Total 1921 1928 3849 % of premises with access to superfast broadband (2016) 33.7 - -

58

Banff Overview Population: Dwellings:

4,101 2,058

Map of Banff SIMD 2016 Rankings per Domain (1 = Most Deprived; 10 = Least Deprived) Scottish Context

There are 5 Data Zones in Banff. Mixed Relatively good Generally speaking, they tend to fall Outcomes Outcomes 0.6 square 10 within the middle bands in terms of miles 9 deprivation (i.e. Deciles 3 to 7). Of the 7 Domains, the worst showing 8 relates to Education, with the best 7 being Geographic Access. 6 Given that the dots within each 5 Domain (see individual columns, left)

4 are relatively spread out vertically, it

Deprivation Decile Deprivation 3 may be said that there is a relatively Relatively poor Mixed wide disparity between Data Zones in 2 Outcomes Outcomes the Banff area. The most deprived 1 Data Zone overall (S01007035), which In a Scottish context, Banff is edging towards is situated just north of the Academy the poorer end of the spectrum in terms of and Primary School, is a few deciles outcomes. The crime rate per 10,000 lower than the least deprived Data population (particularly in and around the town Zone (S01007034), situated to the centre) and, to a lesser extent, S4 Tariff Scores north and west of it (stretching from have in the past acted as an anchor to Median House Price (2015): £134,700 Whinhill Terrace to Campbell Street). performance.

Banff Population / Life Expectancy Selection of Indicators

Lowest Highest 90+ in Shire in Shire 80-84 Indicator Value No. Trend

70-74 % of children living in poverty (2012) 16.6 - 60-64 Approx. % of children (aged <20) receiving child benefits (2015) 82.8 750 - 50-54 49.0% 51.0% Approx. % of children (aged <20) benefitting from tax credits (2014) 82.2 745 - 40-44 Males Females % of 16-64 population in receipt of JSA benefits (June 2017) 2.0 48

Age Group Age 30-34 Approx. % of people (aged 16-64) on Universal Credit (June 2017) 1.1 27 20-24 No. of NINo registrations to adult overseas nationals (2016/17) 45.0 - - 10-14 % of working age population income deprived (SIMD 2016) 12.2 485 - 0-4 % of working age population employment deprived (SIMD 2016) 10.6 270 - 200 100 0 100 200 Accessing local amenities via public transport (average no. of mins.) 4.2 - - Alcohol-related hospital stays per 100,000 population (2014/15) 548.5 23 Prescribed drugs per 10,000 pop - anxiety/depression (2014/15) 16.4 657 Population per Age Group Life Expectancy (Years) % of P1 children classified as ‘obese’ (2015/16) 25.0 10 M F Total Dental health - % of P7 children with no obvious tooth decay (2015) 75.0 30 0-15 354 348 702 Secondary school attendance rate (2010/11) 90.8 - 16-34 496 438 934 Average Tariff Score for S4 pupils (2012/13) 184.0 -

35-64 757 770 1527 Crimes per 10,000 population (2014) 53.3 213 65+ 402 536 938 74.4 78.1 % of dwellings in Council Tax bands A-C (2016) 77.7 1599 - Total 2009 2092 4101 % of premises with access to superfast broadband (2016) 98.6 - -

59

Gardenstown and King Edward Overview Population: Dwellings:

3,251 1,590

Map of Gardenstown and King Edward SIMD 2016 Rankings per Domain (1 = Most Deprived; 10 = Least Deprived) Scottish Context

The Gardenstown and King Edward Intermediate Zone contains 4 Data Mixed Relatively good 10 Zones, which together cover an area Outcomes Outcomes of over 61 square miles. It is 9 therefore relatively sparsely

8 populated, and a number of residents 7 may be geographically deprived, particularly those residing farthest 6 from settlements. Indeed, 2 of the 4 5 Data Zones are among the 10% most 4 geographically deprived in Scotland.

Deprivation Decile Deprivation However, generally speaking, most 3 Data Zones tend to be ‘middling’ in Relatively poor Mixed 61.1 square 2 terms of their rankings for each of the Outcomes Outcomes miles 1 remaining Domains, with a couple of Data contained within the CPP tool suggests Data Zones edging into the least residents in this particular Intermediate Zone deprived categories. Looking at experience better-than-average outcomes individual columns, it would appear compared to those elsewhere in Scotland. This that the Data Zones are fairly is particularly the case in relation to emergency

compacted, which suggests there hospital admissions, child poverty, and the isn’t too much of a disparity within Median House Price (2015): £155,000 percentage of school leavers in positive the wider region. destinations.

Gardenstown and King Edward Population / Life Expectancy Selection of Indicators

Lowest Highest 90+ in Shire in Shire 80-84 Indicator Value No. Trend

70-74 % of children living in poverty (2012) 11.9 - 60-64 Approx. % of children (aged <20) receiving child benefits (2015) 68.3 450 - 50-54 50.0% 50.0% Approx. % of children (aged <20) benefitting from tax credits (2014) 72.8 480 - 40-44 Males Females % of 16-64 population in receipt of JSA benefits (June 2017) 0.8 16

Age Group Age 30-34 Approx. % of people (aged 16-64) on Universal Credit (June 2017) 0.7 15 20-24 No. of NINo registrations to adult overseas nationals (2016/17) 6.0 - - 10-14 % of working age population income deprived (SIMD 2016) 8.3 265 - 0-4 % of working age population employment deprived (SIMD 2016) 6.3 130 - 150 100 50 0 50 100 150 Accessing local amenities via public transport (average no. of mins.) 11.5 - - Alcohol-related hospital stays per 100,000 population (2014/15) 268.9 9 Prescribed drugs per 10,000 pop - anxiety/depression (2014/15) 16.5 544 Population per Age Group Life Expectancy (Years) % of P1 children classified as ‘obese’ (2015/16) 18.5 5 M F Total Dental health - % of P7 children with no obvious tooth decay (2015) 53.3 16 0-15 264 256 520 Secondary school attendance rate (2010/11) 90.6 - 16-34 298 271 569 Average Tariff Score for S4 pupils (2012/13) 174.0 -

35-64 723 736 1459 Crimes per 10,000 population (2014) 28.2 93

65+ 342 361 703 76.0 82.0 % of dwellings in Council Tax bands A-C (2016) 56.2 893 -

Total 1627 1624 3251 % of premises with access to superfast broadband (2016) 15.0 - -

60

Macduff Overview Population: Dwellings:

3,925 1,951

Map of Macduff SIMD 2016 Rankings per Domain (1 = Most Deprived; 10 = Least Deprived) Scottish Context

There are 5 Data Zones within Macduff. As the “Overall” column Mixed Relatively good 10 suggests, the Data Zones are Outcomes Outcomes 9 positioned relatively close together on the decile scale which suggests 8 there is little disparity between the

7 various areas within Macduff. Decile 6 Indeed, most of the Domains follow a similar pattern, as expected, with the 5 greatest disparity evident in the 4 Geographic Access Domain, the Crime Deprivation Deprivation Domain and the Housing Domain. 3 Relatively poor Mixed Income Deprivation is highest in Data 2 Outcomes Outcomes Zone S01007039 and lowest in 1 S01007040, where 14% and 9% of the 0.5 square population are income deprived When utilising the CPP Outcomes Profile tool, miles respectively. Macduff generally ranks higher than most other Intermediate Zones in Scotland. It’s fair Access to services is generally good in to say its residents generally experience slightly Macduff. The lowest (i.e. worst) better-than-average outcomes compared to ranked Data Zone is S01007039 (near Median House Price (2015): £122,000 the general population, particularly in relation High Shore). to emergency hospital admissions.

Macduff Population / Life Expectancy Selection of Indicators

Lowest Highest 90+ in Shire in Shire 80-84 Indicator Value No. Trend

70-74 % of children living in poverty (2012) 13.3 - 60-64 Approx. % of children (aged <20) receiving child benefits (2015) 81.1 700 - 50-54 49.9% 50.1% Approx. % of children (aged <20) benefitting from tax credits (2014) 85.2 735 - 40-44 Males Females % of 16-64 population in receipt of JSA benefits (June 2017) 1.7 43

Age Group Age 30-34 Approx. % of people (aged 16-64) on Universal Credit (June 2017) 1.1 28 20-24 No. of NINo registrations to adult overseas nationals (2016/17) 31.0 - - 10-14 % of working age population income deprived (SIMD 2016) 11.2 450 - 0-4 % of working age population employment deprived (SIMD 2016) 10.2 255 - 250 150 50 50 150 250 Accessing local amenities via public transport (average no. of mins.) 4.0 - - Alcohol-related hospital stays per 100,000 population (2014/15) 799.0 31 Prescribed drugs per 10,000 pop - anxiety/depression (2014/15) 15.6 616 Population per Age Group Life Expectancy (Years) % of P1 children classified as ‘obese’ (2015/16) 12.1 4 M F Total Dental health - % of P7 children with no obvious tooth decay (2015) 44.1 15 0-15 369 312 681 Secondary school attendance rate (2010/11) 92.4 - 16-34 468 425 893 Average Tariff Score for S4 pupils (2012/13) 172.0 -

35-64 776 793 1569 Crimes per 10,000 population (2014) 33.4 132

65+ 347 435 782 79.3 84.4 % of dwellings in Council Tax bands A-C (2016) 77.4 1510 -

Total 1960 1965 3925 % of premises with access to superfast broadband (2016) 97.4 - -

61

Portsoy, Fordyce and Cornhill Overview Population: Dwellings:

3,205 1,634

Map of Portsoy, Fordyce and Cornhill SIMD 2016 Rankings per Domain (1 = Most Deprived; 10 = Least Deprived) Scottish Context

There are 4 Data Zones within the Portsoy, Fordyce and Cornhill Mixed Relatively good 10 Intermediate Zone. Given that the Outcomes Outcomes area covers 44.4 square miles, the IZ 9 is relatively sparsely populated. It is 8 little wonder, therefore, that two of 7 its Data Zones rank among the worst in Scotland in terms of Geographic 6 Access to Services. And the fact that 5 44.4 square one of its Data Zones ranks among miles 4 the least deprived in terms of Deprivation Decile Deprivation Geographic Access suggest a degree 3 of disparity exists in this particular Relatively poor Mixed 2 region. Outcomes Outcomes 1 Most of its Data Zones are ranked in The CPP Outcomes Profile tool suggests the middle deciles, with some residents in this particular Intermediate Zone positioned at the top end of the generally experience better outcomes than the spectrum, particularly in relation to general population of Scotland. This is the Crime and Housing Domains. A especially the case in relation to emergency Median House Price (2015): £142,050 couple of Data Zones rank quite hospital admissions and the general crime rate poorly in relation to Education. per head of population.

Portsoy, Fordyce and Cornhill Population / Life Expectancy Selection of Indicators

Lowest Highest 90+ in Shire in Shire 80-84 Indicator Value No. Trend

70-74 % of children living in poverty (2012) 8.8 - 60-64 Approx. % of children (aged <20) receiving child benefits (2015) 72.2 485 - 50-54 48.1% 51.9% Approx. % of children (aged <20) benefitting from tax credits (2014) 76.6 515 - 40-44 Males Females % of 16-64 population in receipt of JSA benefits (June 2017) 0.9 17

Age Group Age 30-34 Approx. % of people (aged 16-64) on Universal Credit (June 2017) 0.7 14 20-24 No. of NINo registrations to adult overseas nationals (2016/17) 18.0 - - 10-14 % of working age population income deprived (SIMD 2016) 8.5 270 - 0-4 % of working age population employment deprived (SIMD 2016) 6.5 125 - 150 100 50 0 50 100 150 Accessing local amenities via public transport (average no. of mins.) 9.0 - - Alcohol-related hospital stays per 100,000 population (2014/15) 289.6 9 Prescribed drugs per 10,000 pop - anxiety/depression (2014/15) 18.7 603 Population per Age Group Life Expectancy (Years) % of P1 children classified as ‘obese’ (2015/16) 15.8 6 M F Total Dental health - % of P7 children with no obvious tooth decay (2015) 61.9 13 0-15 264 258 522 Secondary school attendance rate (2010/11) 92.5 - 16-34 291 293 584 Average Tariff Score for S4 pupils (2012/13) 191.0 -

35-64 631 665 1296 Crimes per 10,000 population (2014) 21.4 69

65+ 357 446 803 77.5 77.7 % of dwellings in Council Tax bands A-C (2016) 67.4 1102 -

Total 1543 1662 3205 % of premises with access to superfast broadband (2016) 43.2 - -

62

Sources

1 Report to Banff and Buchan Area Committee, Piers Blaxter, 8 March 2016 2 Audit Scotland, 3 Economic Report 2016, Oil & Gas UK, 2016 4 www.iea.org 5 Energy Entrepreneurs Report 2017: Overview of independent energy generation across Great Britain, Smartest Energy, 2017 6 Poverty in the United Kingdom (Townsend, 1979) 7 www.jrf.org.uk/publications/closing-attainment-gap-scottish-education Joseph Rowntree Foundation; Closing the Attainment Gap, Scotland 2014 8 Child Poverty Statistics and Facts, Barnardos UK, www.barnardos.org.uk/what_we_do/our_work/child_poverty/child_poverty_what_is_ poverty 9 Ibid. 10 Ibid.. 11 Educational Attainment of the Labour Force, OECD, 1989 12 https://consult.scotland.gov.uk/empowering-schools/a-governance-review/ 13 http://www.gov.scot/Topics/Education/Schools/DeliveryPlanforScottishEducation 14 http://www.gov.scot/Topics/Education 15 16 Delivering Excellence and Equity in Scottish Education: A Delivery Plan for Scotland, Scottish Government, June 2016 17 https://news.gov.scot/speeches-and-briefings/excellence-and-equity-in-scottish- education-from-the-early-years-into-adulthood 18 https://www.pressandjournal.co.uk/fp/news/aberdeen/1208439/anger-as-north- east-school-inspections-plunge/ 19 Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA) 2015 Results (Volume I) Excellence and Equity in Education, OECD, Dec 2016 (http://www.oecd.org/publications/pisa-2015-results-volume-i-9789264266490- en.htm) 20 The Future of Work, World Economic Forum, 21 Agiletown: the relentless march of technology and London’s response, Deloitte, 2014 22 Education and Children’s Services Committee papers, Aberdeenshire Council, Thursday, 16 February, 2017 23 Report to Strategic Leadership Team, 22 February, Aberdeenshire Council 24 https://www.pressandjournal.co.uk/fp/news/aberdeenshire/1203648/teacher- recruitment-boost-for-aberdeenshire/ 25 Aberdeenshire Council’s response to the Scottish Government’s Excellence and Equity in Education Governance Consultation 26 Canadian Institute of Advanced Research, 2012 27 Our 2020 Strategic Vision, Scottish Government, 2011 28 Does Crime Affect Economic Growth?, Detotto, C. and E. Otranto, Kyklos, 2010.