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Minnesota Climate Change Action Plan: a Framework for Climate Change Action

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Minnesota Climate Change Action Plan: a Framework for Climate Change Action Minnesota Climate Change Action Plan: A Framework for Climate Change Action February 2003 Minnesota Climate Change Action Plan: A Framework for Climate Change Action Foreword This report was written under a grant received by the Minnesota Pollution Control Agency (MPCA) from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s Global Programs Division. More than 25 other states have developed state climate change action plans. The approach and resources devoted to developing these plans varied among the states. Some hired a consultant to conduct broad stakeholder workgroups; others were more limited in their involvement of stakeholders. Some conducted in-depth technical analyses of various greenhouse gas mitigation options; others developed more extensive inventories. In all plans, the recommended actions fall into a few key areas, with reduced greenhouse emissions from energy usage as the primary focus and an emphasis on improving carbon sequestration. This report provides a framework for a Minnesota climate change action plan. To develop this framework we developed detailed greenhouse gas emissions information and forecasts, as well as a carbon sequestration inventory. We conducted a survey to learn what a broad group of stakeholders (e.g., industry, non-profit groups, and government) think the role of state government should be in this issue. We gathered a list of existing state programs that may be relevant to greenhouse gas control through interviews with staff from over a dozen state agencies. To aid in communicating this issue with other agencies, we also conducted a survey to learn about their attitudes and beliefs towards climate change. The ideas put forth in this report are based on a synthesis of the information we gathered. This report does not commit any additional resources on the part of the MPCA or of others. Throughout this paper, the term ‘we’ refers to the authors of this report. i Minnesota Climate Change Action Plan: A Framework for Climate Change Action Contact Information If you would like more information about this report, please contact the authors: Peter Ciborowski, Air Policy Unit, Majors and Remediation Division Minnesota Pollution Control Agency 520 Lafayette Road North St. Paul, MN 55155 Telephone: (651) 297-5822 E-mail: [email protected] or Mary Jean Fenske, Air Policy Unit, Majors and Remediation Division Minnesota Pollution Control Agency 520 Lafayette Road North St. Paul, MN 55155 Telephone: (651) 297-5472 -- E-mail: [email protected] Acknowledgements The authors thank these individuals for their assistance with the surveys described in this report: • Ahndi Fridell, Office of Environmental Assistance (OEA) • Jeff Ledermann, OEA • Sherryl Livingston, MPCA • Tom Miller, OEA • John Seltz, MPCA The authors thank these individuals at the MPCA and OEA for their review of the report: • Doug Day • John Seltz • Art Dunn • David Thornton • Greg Pratt • Ken Brown The authors thank the participants in the various surveys from these organizations: • 3M • Minnesota Department of Health • Board of Water and Soil Resources • Minnesota Planning • Cliffs Mining • Minnesota Department of Transportation • Flint Hills Resources • Minnesota Department of Administration • Minnesota Power • Minnesota Department of Agriculture • Minnesotans for an Energy Efficient Economy • Minnesota Department of Trade and Economic • Minnesota Council of Churches Development • Minnesota Chamber of Commerce • Northwest Airlines • Metropolitan Council • Public Utilities Commission • Minnesota Department of Natural Resources • Sierra Club • Minnesota Department of Commerce • Minnesota Truckers’ Association • Minnesota Office of Environmental Assistance • Xcel Energy (Although these organizations participated in one or more survey, they do not necessarily endorse the conclusions drawn by the MPCA in the report.) In addition, the authors thank Jan Eckart for her assistance in producing this report. Finally, the guidance and assistance of Steve Dunn and Denise Mulholland with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s Office of Atmospheric Programs was much appreciated. ii Minnesota Climate Change Action Plan: A Framework for Climate Change Action Table of Contents 1.0 Summary......................................................................................................................1 1.1 Introduction...........................................................................................................1 1.2 What Is At Stake for Minnesota?..........................................................................3 1.3 What Are Minnesota Greehouse Gas Emission Trends and Sources .................4 1.4 What Minnesota State Programs Are Relevant to the Control of Greenhouse Gases?......................................................................................6 1.5 What is a Strategy for Minnesota in the Climate Change Problem? ....................6 1.6 Conclusion............................................................................................................9 2.0 Actions Others Are Taking.......................................................................................10 2.1 International Action.............................................................................................10 2.2 National Action ...................................................................................................10 2.3 Other States’ Actions..........................................................................................11 2.4 Business Actions................................................................................................12 2.5 Local Actions......................................................................................................13 3.0 The Scientific Background.......................................................................................15 3.1 Relationship of the Greenhouse Gas Effect to Climate Change ........................15 3.2 Principal Greenhouse Gases .............................................................................16 3.3 Residence Times and Global Warming Potential of Greenhouse Gases...........19 4.0 Climate Change Impacts on Minnesota ..................................................................22 4.1 Introduction.........................................................................................................22 4.2 Current Conditions .............................................................................................23 4.3 Observed Changes............................................................................................25 4.4 Predicted Changes.............................................................................................29 4.5 Sectoral Impacts and Adaptation Options ..........................................................30 4.5.1 Water Resources........................................................................................31 4.5.2. Ecosystems.................................................................................................32 4.5.3. Recreation...................................................................................................36 4.5.4 Conclusions ................................................................................................37 5.0 Minnesota Greenhouse Gas Trends and Forecasts ..............................................39 5.1 Introduction.........................................................................................................39 5.2 Transportation ....................................................................................................43 5.3 Electricity Generation.........................................................................................53 5.4 Agriculture ..........................................................................................................61 5.5 Residential Sector..............................................................................................72 5.6 Commercial Sector.............................................................................................78 5.7 Waste Management ...........................................................................................83 5.8 Industrial and Mining Sector...............................................................................92 5.9 Forestry Carbon Sink .........................................................................................95 5.10 Summary of Minnesota Greenhouse Gas Emissions Trend and Forecasts ......98 Inventory References...................................................................................................101 iii Minnesota Climate Change Action Plan: A Framework for Climate Change Action 6.0 Stakeholder Climate Change Input.....................................................................102 6.1 Stakeholder Input on Development of a State Greenhouse Gas Reduction Goal ...................................................................................102 6.2 Sister Agency Input on the Role of Their Agency in Climate Change ..............104 6.3 State Agency Survey Regarding Knowledge of and Opinions About Climate Change..........................................................................................................107 6.3.1 Summary ....................................................................................................107 6.3.2 Outreach Opportunities..............................................................................108 6.3.3
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