Overview of the Italian Energy Market (Updated to 2013)
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Overview of the Italian Energy Market (Updated to 2013) Milan, December 2014 Agenda 1.1 Main features of the Italian energy market . Market size . Offer and demand; market players . Market infrastructure 2. The wholesale market 3. The retail market 4. Market prices and margins DISCLAIMER - This document has been prepared by A2A for convenience purposes only and for the benefit of investors and analysts solely and is based on public information. However this document shall not give rise to any liability of A2A or any of its subsidiaries, directors, officers, employees or consultants as per the truthfulness, accuracy, completeness and updating of such information. This document does not constitute an offer or invitation to purchase or subscribe any shares or other securities and neither it nor any part of it shall form the basis of or be relied upon in connection with any contract or commitment whatsoever. This information was prepared by A2A and it is not to be relied on by any 3rd party without A2A’s prior written consent. 2 The European energy market sizes Source: Eurelectric early statistics 2012; Eurogas statistical report 2013. EU27, including Norway and Turkey . TWh 300 400 500 600 100 200 The Italian gas demand in 2012 is belowThe the Italian level electricity of demand 2003. in 2012 stands atItalian the market same is level no.4 of in 2004. the European electricity market ranking, and no.3 in gas market ranking. 0 551 Germany 490 France 358 UK 328 Italy 271 Spain European electricity demand - 2012 242 This information was prepared by A2A and it is not to be relied on by any 3rd party without A2A’s prior written consent. Turkey 143 Sweden 142 Poland 130 Norway 115 Netherlands 85 Finland 80 Belgium 69 Austria 63 Switzerland 59 Czech Rep. 58 Greece 54 Romania 52 Portugal 40 Hungary 33 33 Denmark Ireland 33 Bulgaria 27 Slovakia 13 Slovenia 11 Lithuania Estonia 8 Latvia 8 Luxembourg 7 Cyprus 5 Malta 2 TWh 1000 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 0 909 Germany 855 United Kingdom 793 Italy 492 France 426 Netherlands 363 Spain European gas demand -2012 179 Belgium 177 Poland 145 Romania 107 Hungary 96 Austria 86 Czech Republic 55 Slovakia 53 Ireland 50 Portugal 47 Greece 39 Finland 38 Denamrk 34 Lithuania 31 Croatia 30 Bulgaria 15 Latvia 14 Luxemburg 13 Sweden Slovenia 8 Estonia 7 Cyprus 0 0 Malta 3 The historical trend of Italian electricity demand CAGR CAGR 1.55% -1.27% 350 340 330 320 TWh 310 300 290 280 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 +2.1% +1.9% +3.2% +1.5% +1.6% +2.1% +0.7% -0.1% -5.7% +3.2% +1.3% -1.9% -3.0% -2.9% . Electricity demand in 2013 amounts to 318 TWh. Electricity demand is still downward in 2013, mainly due to the economic crisis. In 2014 is decreasing further. Source: AU website; Terna website, REF This information was prepared by A2A and it is not to be relied on by any 3rd party without A2A’s prior written consent. 4 Final consumption by sector and GDP 400 0.2% 0.0% 0% -0.1% -0.2% -0.2% 350 -0.6% -5% 300 -10% 68 70 69 70 69 66 250 -15% -20% TWh 200 94 95 96 98 101 100 -25% 150 -30% 100 131 -35% 151 131 138 140 125 50 -40% 6 6 6 6 6 6 0 -45% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Agriculture Industry Services Households % change GDP . Services consumption grew between 2008 and 2012 (+6 TWh). Drop in industrial sector: -26 TWh in 6 years (-17.5%). From 2008 to 2013 industrial consumption decreased much more than electricity demand (-1.27%) and GDP (-1.9%). Source: GME’s 2013 annual report. This information was prepared by A2A and it is not to be relied on by any 3rd party without A2A’s prior written consent. 5 The electricity demand * Liberalized market - retailers' market share* 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% REGULATED MARKET . AU (Acquirente Unico – Single Buyer): state owned body responsible for the electricity supply to the regulated market. AU sources electricity from the wholesale forward market (mainly by auctions) and from the spot power exchange. Volumes managed by AU in 2013: approx. 70 TWh. * Sales to wholesalers and resellers not included. Source: GSE website; AU website This information was prepared by A2A and it is not to be relied on by any 3rd party without A2A’s prior written consent. 6 Gas consumption in Italy Hystorical gas consumption 90 80 -32.14% 70 Thermoelectric 60 consumption 2008 2013 50 bcm 40 30 -19.2% 20 Industrial 10 consumption 2008 2013 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Industrial Household Thermo Other . Gas consumption in 2013 (67 bmc) is below the level of 2003, due to the drop of thermoelectric demand and, secondarily, to the decrease in industrial consumption. Source: Snam rete gas. This information was prepared by A2A and it is not to be relied on by any 3rd party without A2A’s prior written consent. 7 The mix of electricity production 100% 4% 4% 5% 4% 5% 5% 7% 9% 12% 90% 17% 15% 16% 14% 14% 12% 15% 20% 18% 80% 18% 16% 14% 12% 15% 70% 18% 17% 18% 28% 22% 11% 10% 9% 288 TWh 9% 60% 14% 13% National 14% 8% 14% 14% 13% 15% production 50% 15% 16% 13% 16% in 2013 40% 30% 55% 54% 49% 50% 50% 51% 48% 20% 40% 43% 43% 38% 10% 0% 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2001 2012 2013 Natural Gas Coal Oil & other Hydro Renewable . The relative importance of thermoelectric generation (gas, oil and coal) decreased from overall 83% in 2007 to 62% in 2013. Huge decrease of CCGT production volumes: in 2013 the national load factor has been about 1,800 hours. Source:; AEEG annual report 2012; Terna preliminary data. This information was prepared by A2A and it is not to be relied on by any 3rd party without A2A’s prior written consent. 8 production Major companies’ contribution to the electricity gross Source: AEEG annual report 2012; Preliminary data from Terna (*) TirrenoPower: Sorgenia (39%), GdFSuez (50%), Hera (5.5%), Iren (5.5%) . liberalization. The national incumbent is still the main player. Many medium-sized players have emerged after Consolidation process is now expected due to economic crisis. 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 0% 5% This information was prepared by A2A and it is not to be relied on by any 3rd party without A2A’s prior written consent. Enel Eni Edison * E.On Erg ** A2A Year 2013 Iren Gdf Suez Tirreno Power* Edipower Sorgenia Saras Others 9 The generation capacity increases while the electricity consumption is slowing Installed generation capacity [GW] vs. Electricity consumption [TWh] 200 360 180 340 ] W ] h G [ 160 320 W y t T i [ c a n p o 140 300 i a t c p n m o u i t 120 280 s r 25 28 n a 20 o e c n 10 7 y e 100 260 5 t i g 4 c 3 22 i d 22 22 22 r 2 22 22 t e l 2 21 c l 80 240 21 e a l t 21 E s 21 n I 60 80 81 220 72 76 77 78 79 62 65 68 40 200 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Under-capacity Thermo Hydro Other renewable Electricity consumption [right scale] Over-capacity . Starting from 2005 huge investments in the thermoelectric sector have been on stream to increase the capacity after a critical period. Additional renewable capacity, subsidized by the tariffs, has been developed from 2009. The electricity consumption dropped in late 2008 and the recover is lingering. The balance between generation capacity and consumption load is normally cyclical and should reverse in the next few years. The peak reserve margin in 2013 ranged from 33.5% (winter period) to 45.9% (summer period). Source: Terna This information was prepared by A2A and it is not to be relied on by any 3rd party without A2A’s prior written consent. 10 TWh Italian renewable electricity gross production mix Source: GSE; AEEGSI. 2013 interim data. 100 120 20 40 60 80 . 0 generous incentive scheme. Huge increase in solar and wind production, dueHydroelectric to production the accounts EU for 20-20-20 nearly Targets and half of thanks to total renewable a sources. 2000 2001 Geothermic 2002 This information was prepared by A2A and it is not to be relied on by any 3rd party without A2A’s prior written consent. 2003 2004 Biomass 2005 2006 Wind 2007 2008 Solar 2009 2010 Hydro 2011 2012 2013 14 15 22 53 6 Hydro 48% 2013 TWh 110 Biomass 13% Geothermic Solar 20% 5% Wind 14% 11 Distributed generation in 2012 Volumes breakdown by source Technology n° plants Gross Capacity Volumes Non Renwable Solar # MW TWh 31% 31% Hydro 2,628 3,754 11 Wind 841 2,283 4 Solar 478,277 15,682 18 Thermo 3,166 8,655 25 Total 484,912 30,374 57 Wind Biomass, 7% biogas Hydro 12% 19% . Distributed Generation (DG) is the total amount of power plants connected to the distribution system. In 2012 the energy gross production of DG amounted to 57 TWh, about 19% of national production, through more than 480,000 plants. 69% of the energy comes from renewable sources, especially from solar power plants.