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Medicane Zorbas) Research Collection Journal Article How an uncertain short-wave perturbation on the North Atlantic wave guide affects the forecast of an intense Mediterranean cyclone (Medicane Zorbas) Author(s): Portmann, Raphael; González-Alemán, Juan Jesús; Sprenger, Michael; Wernli, Heini Publication Date: 2020-10-19 Permanent Link: https://doi.org/10.3929/ethz-b-000456727 Originally published in: Weather and Climate Dynamics 1(2), http://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-597-2020 Rights / License: Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International This page was generated automatically upon download from the ETH Zurich Research Collection. For more information please consult the Terms of use. ETH Library Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 597–615, 2020 https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-597-2020 © Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License. How an uncertain short-wave perturbation on the North Atlantic wave guide affects the forecast of an intense Mediterranean cyclone (Medicane Zorbas) Raphael Portmann1, Juan Jesús González-Alemán2, Michael Sprenger1, and Heini Wernli1 1ETH Zurich, Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, Zurich, Switzerland 2Complutense University of Madrid, Department of Earth Physics and Astrophysics, Madrid, Spain Correspondence: Raphael Portmann ([email protected]) Received: 22 August 2019 – Discussion started: 28 August 2019 Revised: 15 September 2020 – Accepted: 25 September 2020 – Published: 19 October 2020 Abstract. Mediterranean cyclogenesis is known to be fre- ment of the PV streamer in more than a third of the ensem- quently linked to ridge building over the North Atlantic and ble members resulted in a very different cyclone scenario. subsequent anticyclonic Rossby wave breaking over Europe. In this scenario, cyclogenesis occurred earlier than in the But understanding of how this linkage affects the medium- other members in connection to a pre-existing surface trough range forecast uncertainty of Mediterranean cyclones is lim- over the Levantine Sea. These cyclones did not develop the ited, as previous predictability studies have mainly focused deep warm core typical of medicanes. It is proposed that the on the relatively rare cases of Mediterranean cyclogenesis eastward-shifted cyclogenesis resulted in reduced values of preceded by upstream extratropical transition of tropical cy- low-level equivalent potential temperature in the cyclogene- clones. This study exploits a European Centre for Medium- sis area. As a result, latent heating was not intense and deep Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) operational ensemble enough to erode the upper-level PV anomaly and allow the forecast with an uncertain potential vorticity (PV) streamer formation of a deep warm core. The westward displacement position over the Mediterranean that, 3 d after initialization, led to surface cyclones that were too weak, and a medicane resulted in an uncertain development of the Mediterranean formed in only half of the members. The central, i.e. correct, tropical-like cyclone (Medicane) Zorbas in September 2018. PV streamer position resulted in the most accurate forecasts Later initializations showed substantially lower forecast un- with a strong medicane in most members. This study is the certainties over the Mediterranean. An ad hoc clustering of first that explicitly investigates the impact of PV streamer po- the ensemble members according to the PV streamer po- sition uncertainty for medicane development. Overall, results sition in the Mediterranean is used to study the upstream extend current knowledge of the role of upstream uncertain- evolution of the synoptic to mesoscale forecast uncertain- ties in the medium-range predictability and unsteady forecast ties. Cluster differences show that forecast uncertainties were behavior of Mediterranean cyclones including medicanes. amplified on the stratospheric side of a jet streak over the North Atlantic during the first day of the ensemble predic- tion. Subsequently, they propagated downstream and were further amplified within a short-wave perturbation along the 1 Introduction wave guide, superimposed onto the large-scale Rossby wave pattern. After 3 d, the uncertainties reached the Mediter- Mediterranean cyclones are major causes of heavy precipi- ranean, where they resulted in a large spread in the posi- tation and strong winds all across the Mediterranean basin tion of the PV streamer. These uncertainties further translated and are therefore a leading meteorological threat in this re- into uncertainties in the position and thermal structure of the gion (e.g., Jansa et al., 2001; Pfahl and Wernli, 2012; Raveh- Mediterranean cyclone. In particular, the eastward displace- Rubin and Wernli, 2015). Hence, it is of high societal rel- evance to study uncertainties in their forecasts. It is widely Published by Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Union. 598 R. Portmann et al.: Medicane Zorbas known that Mediterranean cyclones mostly form from elon- tial rainfall, major flooding, and even tornadoes (Flood- gated equatorward intrusions of stratospheric high potential list, 2020; Severe-weather, 2020). The main affected regions vorticity (PV), so-called PV streamers, that are the result of were Libya in the early stages and southern Greece and anticyclonic Rossby wave breaking over the North Atlantic– Turkey later on (Floodlist, 2020). This cyclone belonged to European region (e.g., Tafferner, 1990; Fita et al., 2006; a special class of Mediterranean cyclones that develop visual Tous and Romero, 2013; Flaounas et al., 2015). Often, these and structural similarities to tropical cyclones in a process PV streamers break up into PV cutoffs, which are typically similar to tropical transition (for further details on tropical identified as quasi-circular PV anomalies isolated from the transition see Davis and Bosart, 2004). These cyclones are main stratospheric reservoir on an isentropic surface (Ap- often called medicanes (Mediterranean hurricanes; Emanuel, penzeller and Davies, 1992; Wernli and Sprenger, 2007). 2005; Tous and Romero, 2013; Cavicchia et al., 2014) or The dynamical forcing and destabilization by the upper-level Mediterranean tropical-like cyclones (Miglietta et al., 2013). PV streamer or cutoff are known to favor strong convection Medicanes are often associated with strong horizontal pres- and cyclogenesis. Indeed, a range of modeling case studies sure gradients, wind, and rainfall, which may result in sig- have established that mesoscale errors in the structure of the nificant damage, although medicanes rarely attain hurricane upper-level PV streamer or cutoff are relevant sources of er- intensity. They acquire the typical appearance of a hurricane, rors in the low-level development of Mediterranean cyclones with convective cloud bands wrapped around a cloud-free and heavy-precipitation events (Fehlmann and Davies, 1997; central eye and a typical size of the associated cloud clusters Fehlmann and Quadri, 2000; Romero, 2001; Homar and on the order of 300 km in diameter, i.e. smaller than typical Stensrud, 2004; Argence et al., 2008; Chaboureau et al., hurricanes (Emanuel, 2005). There is not yet a clear defini- 2012). Other case studies have shown that intense latent heat- tion of medicanes. A common property seems to be the de- ing in upstream cyclones over the North Atlantic can enhance velopment of a (symmetric) warm-core structure throughout anticyclonic Rossby wave breaking and thereby affect the the whole troposphere, often called the deep warm core. The PV streamer formation and, as a result, Mediterranean cy- deep warm core of medicanes is not necessarily produced di- clogenesis and heavy precipitation (e.g., Massacand et al., rectly by convection but can, especially at lower levels, be 2001; Grams et al., 2011; Pantillon et al., 2015). Wiegand and promoted by horizontal advection and the seclusion of warm Knippertz(2014) showed that high-amplitude PV streamers air in the cyclone center (Fita and Flaounas, 2018). The rela- over the North Atlantic and Mediterranean are systematically tive role of the positive upper-level PV anomaly and air–sea preceded by latent heating upstream. The basic mechanism interaction for the intensification of medicanes is currently behind this link is that intense latent heating results in the debated. In most cases the positive upper-level PV anomaly transport of low-PV air from low levels to the upper tro- seems to be important for the initial intensification (Migli- posphere where it contributes to the build-up or amplifica- etta et al., 2017). This study focuses on uncertainties related tion of a ridge and, hence, the formation of a PV streamer to the PV streamer that led to the genesis and initial intensi- downstream. Similar situations also occur in other regions, fication of Medicane Zorbas. e.g., the North Pacific (Grams and Archambault, 2016). Such Using European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Fore- substantial latent heat release often occurs in warm con- casts (ECMWF) operational ensemble forecasts, Pantillon veyor belts (WCBs), which are coherent, rapidly ascending et al.(2013) investigated the predictability of a medicane airstreams within extratropical cyclones (Browning, 1990; that was preceded by upstream ET. They found that ensem- Madonna et al., 2014). In a systematic analysis, Raveh- ble members that appropriately forecasted the cyclone track Rubin and Flaounas(2017) found that more than 90 % of during ET correctly reproduced ridge building and the result- the 200 strongest Mediterranean
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