KENNAN CABLE No. 43 l August 2019 Venezuela's President Nicolas Maduro addresses RT's U.S. viewers in an English-dubbed interview posted to YouTube. (Source: YouTube) Reading the RT Leaves: Foreign Policy Lessons from Russian International Media Coverage of Venezuela Sean P. Steiner and Sarah Oates While the crisis in Venezuela has not provoked Turmoil in Venezuela foreign military intervention, it remains a significant part of Russia’s war of words with the West. The late Hugo Chavez’s revolution in Venezuela is in This narrative is evident on RT, Russia’s foreign crisis. Declining oil prices compounded with economic broadcaster.1 RT, the former Russia Today, is a key mismanagement have created drastic food and component of Russia’s foreign media apparatus and medicine shortages and have sparked mass protests a critical foreign policy instrument. It can be difficult against Chavez successor Nicolas Maduro. Maduro to predict Russia’s actions abroad, but analysis won a second term as president in May 2018, but of RT’s English-language coverage of Venezuela the opposition-led National Assembly declared his provides important insights into its foreign policy. inauguration invalid over allegations of voter fraud and intimidation. The National Assembly appointed Juan KENNAN CABLE No. 43 l August 2019 Guaidó as interim president and the U.S., among other These poor investments make sense when nations, quickly recognized his appointment while considering the political capital Russia receives in levying increased economic sanctions on Maduro’s return. Demonstrating Russia’s status as a great officials and Venezuelan industries. Russia steadfastly power is one of Moscow’s key domestic and foreign supports Maduro’s government. policy objectives. By presenting Russia as an equal Rosneft, the largest Russian oil company The Russian Connection and a well-documented instrument of Russia and Venezuela maintain a cooperative relationship.2 Leaders in both countries are skeptical Russian foreign policy, owns nearly 150 of the U.S.-led international order and have built billion barrels of Venezuela’s proven oil camaraderie through the pursuit of a “just” order to counter American hegemony. Chavez and Maduro reserves. recognized this common ideology and have worked to enrich the Russian-Venezuelan relationship through numerous state visits and calculated partner of other great nations, Moscow earns diplomatic recognitions designed to win Moscow’s valuable prestige among Russians and potential favor.3 The Bolivarian leaders clearly understood allies, meaning that expending financial resources their ability to generate significant domestic for relationships that project Russian greatness and international political capital for Moscow. is likely money well spent. Great power identity Venezuela’s geographic position outside Russia’s also gives Moscow justification to defend friendly traditional near-abroad and professed loyalty to governments from regime-toppling uprisings. Many Moscow boosts Russia’s great-power status. Russian elites believe that sinister foreign forces invent unrest to create color revolutions and oust Yet political gains alone provide an incomplete Russian allies. Venezuela’s leaders have historically picture. Rosneft, the largest Russian oil company agreed, and the current crisis has only cemented and a well-documented instrument of Russian this view and bolstered ties with the Russians. foreign policy, owns nearly 150 billion barrels of Venezuela’s proven oil reserves.4 This makes This combination of tangible and political Venezuela the largest recipient of Rosneft’s foreign investments makes it unlikely that Russia could investments, but Venezuela has not delivered on accept Maduro’s exit. A new government in Caracas many of its contracts. Russia has also provided could avoid commitments to repay Russian loans. consultation on sanction relief, food aid shipments, Even more importantly, losing a key political ally to and arms. Estimates place Russia’s total investment a perceived foreign intervention would be damaging at $20 billion, an especially significant signal of its to Russia’s international image. These factors point commitment to Venezuela given the many hurdles towards continued Russian support for Maduro and Russia faces to recouping its funds in light of opposition to U.S. intervention in Venezuela. sanctions and instability. KENNAN CABLE No. 43 l August 2019 RT’s Role Modern constraints on military action elevate a compelling way to assess Russia’s intentions. influence operations and information warfare to the RT’s coverage of the Venezuelan political crisis core of national security policy. Putin’s government confirms the outlet’s operational purpose. Though articulates elaborate and consistent strategic its stories discuss the same news as other sites, narratives as part of a wider information offensive they represent Russia’s consistent message to against the West. According to the editors of a Americans: Do not intervene in Venezuela. Analysis book on modern political communication, strategic of select official Russian government statements narratives are “tools that political actors employ and all RT articles labeled “US-backed coup in to promote their interests, values, and aspirations Venezuela news” (published between January 11 for international order by managing expectations and March 4, 2019) uncovered four salient story and altering the discursive environment.”5 By lines (see Figure 1) aimed at eroding American establishing recurring stories about conflicts and support for action in Venezuela:8 consequences, states intend strategic narratives to shift audience expectations about certain actors • “The U.S. wants regime change.” Russia’s core and influence future audience perceptions. Russia’s message here is that the U.S. frequently deposes strategic narratives form the foundation for its governments it does not like and Venezuela is the influence operations. State-directed media outlets next target. mold news coverage to fit strategic narratives that • “The U.S wants Venezuela’s oil.” This is Russia’s push audiences towards Moscow’s policy on a explanation for the U.S.’s interest in Venezuela, given issue. framed as natural resource theft. For Western-targeted narratives, Russia turns to • “The U.S. will create provocations.” This story RT. Broadcast from studios in the U.S., written in line suggests that the U.S. will covertly and English, and heavily marketed to Americans, RT malevolently instigate violence to unjustly presents itself as an alternative to mainstream remove Maduro. news sources such as CNN.6 To build an audience, a significant portion of RT’s content comes from • “The U.S. is hypocritical and caused the crisis.” “clickbait” videos and sensational, apolitical stories.7 This embraces Russia’s complaints about U.S. Attracting readers with relatable content brings sanctions and “unnecessary” humanitarian aid. them into RT’s sphere and then exposes them to Russia’s political messages. Measuring the reach Though these story lines often appeared together, of RT’s political content is difficult, but Moscow’s they are distinctly identifiable and they all consistent narrative projection through the outlet contributed to Russia’s message about motivations demonstrates a degree of faith in its potential. for and consequences of U.S. action in Venezuela. Regardless of RT’s reach, its political articles present KENNAN CABLE No. 43 l August 2019 [Figure 1] Number of articles referencing each story line at least once 164 78 77 50 The U.S. Wants Regime Change The U.S. Wants Oil The U.S. Will Stage Provocations The U.S. Is Hypocritical and Caused This Crisis Total sample: 185 articles Our period of analysis covers critical moments to dynamic events. The spikes on these graphs at the beginning of the current Venezuelan crisis. frequently corresponded to identified critical Mapping these moments onto a graph (see moments, supporting the theory that RT writers Figure 2) of the daily number of articles containing work to quickly frame new events into the context each story line shows how RT writers respond of Russia’s preferred narrative. [Figure 2] Number of articles referencing each story line over time The U.S. Is Hypocritical and Caused This Crisis 15 The U.S. Will Stage Provocations The U.S. Wants Oil Feb. 23 Clashes at Venezuelan- The U.S. Wants Regime Change Colombian border as opposition attempts to bring in aid. Feb. 7 Jan. 28TH First U.S. aid shipment 12 U.S. announces departs, Zakharova Feb. 22 sactions on calls it hypocritical. Provocation will create Venezuela. a "heavenly hundred." Feb. 1 Bolton announces U.S. will send 9 humanitarian aid. Jan. 23TH Feb. 13 Trump Zakharova announces recognizes U.S. preparation of a Guaidó. "provocation with victims." 6 Jan. 16TH Pence recognizes Guaidó. 3 0 1-Feb 2-Feb 3-Feb 4-Feb 5-Feb 6-Feb 7-Feb 8-Feb 9-Feb 1-Mar 2-Mar 3-Mar 4-Mar 11-Jan 12-Jan 13-Jan 15-Jan 16-Jan 17-Jan 22-Jan 23-Jan 24-Jan 25-Jan 27-Jan 28-Jan 29-Jan 30-Jan 31-Jan 10-Feb 11-Feb 12-Feb 13-Feb 14-Feb 15-Feb 17-Feb 18-Feb 19-Feb 20-Feb 22-Feb 23-Feb 24-Feb 25-Feb 26-Feb 28-Feb KENNAN CABLE No. 43 l August 2019 Regime Change Policy When Guaidó asserted his claim to the presidency To explain the U.S.’s motivations for removing in early January 2019, the Russian Ministry of Maduro and dissuade readers from supporting Foreign Affairs (MFA) quickly deployed the “U.S. its policy, RT reported that “oil [is] the sole and wants regime change” story line, saying that “the real purpose behind [the] US coup.”13 Stories that U.S. is clearly trying to apply a tried and tested claimed the U.S. will steal all of “Venezuela’s regime change scenario in Venezuela.”9 RT followed, riches—gold, gas, diamonds, iron, [and] water” labeling the events a “coup” and basing the majority worked to discredit Western democratic of its coverage on how the American recognition of justifications for supporting Guaidó by questioning Guaidó would soon lead to military intervention to the virtue of U.S.