® 6"1 ÊÎä]Ê "°Ê{ÊUÊ*,ÊÓä£Ó RISKRISK TOLTOLERERANCANCEE This HS-N-D3/R3-G/I, about 5' deep, failed on an early season facet layer during the January 18-20 cycle in the Tetons. This northeast-facing bowl in South Fall Creek, elevation approx 9700', is known as “New Years.” Photo by Doug Workman see Teton stories starting on page 14 In This Issue Story by Charlie Ziskin From the President...............................................................2 From the Editor ........................................................................2 Every time an avalanche fatality hits the newswire, the skiing community tries to AAA News......................................................................................3 make some sense out of what happened. Some people want to know precisely what mistakes What’s New . 3 the victims made so they can avoid the same fate. Others want to know how anyone in Snow Science Alta is for Science ......................................................................6 their right mind could even conceive of backcountry skiing in Considerable conditions. The Tipping Point .......................................................................7 Enhanced Avalanche Survival from Airbags ...........8 As someone who often skis pretty big lines under a Considerable forecast, I find myself Kootenay Surface Hoar ....................................................... 10 attempting to explain the process my partners and I employ when making decisions in Crown Profiles Close Call on Petes North ..................................................... 12 avalanche terrain. It’s not easy using words to express a constellation of cognitive skills as Taylor Mountain Avalanche . 14 Teton January Cycle ................................................................. 16 complex and integrative as the ones I have learned. But I try to add my perspective to the Photo Spread................................................................................ 18 Juneau Thayne Road Avalanches .................................... 29 discussion because I have been doing just that for nearly 40 years. I wrote something like Cooke City Tragedies............................................................... 27 the following in an online discussion on telemarktips.com in the aftermath of the recent Decision-Making Risk Tolerance Essays .............................................................. 20 Stevens Pass avalanche that claimed the lives of three well-known and very experienced Fiction backcountry skiers. She Loves Me, She Loves Me Not ................................... 35 See “Skiing in Considerable Hazard” continued on page 20 ¦ …the probability of losing The Avalanche Review a single round of Russian P.O. Box 2831 Roulette is “only” 1/6. To last Pagosa Springs, CO 81147 very long in the backcountry, the probability of an avalanche needs to be far lower. —Jonathan Shefftz, Avalanche Lesson, pg 34 XÊ* ÊÓ / Ê6 Ê, 6 7 6"°ÊÎä]Ê "°Ê{]Ê*,ÊÓä£Ó THE from the president REVIEW Ê ,-*\Êi«Ê iviÊÕÀÊ-ÌÀ>Ìi}VÊ*> What’s our vision and what’s our strategy? we want to achieve for AAA and our members. This is *,ÊÓä£ÓÊUÊ6" °ÊÎäÊUÊ 1 , Ê{ While these might seem like peculiar questions for your chance to be heard. For an organization to support The Avalanche Review is published each fall through spring by the president to ask of the membership, the questions its members, the organization must be member-driven. the American Avalanche Association, Inc., a nonprofit corporation. are honest and sensible. I hope you’ll help us answer We want you to get involved. The Avalanche Review welcomes the submission of articles, With your input we can better evaluate our progress, photographs and illustrations. these questions. The avalanche profession continues to be an evolving formulate goals, strengthen our services, and enhance our Please send submissions to: order and so too should be our association. Formally, we growth. For all our members this will increase the value Lynne Wolfe –– Editor are a member-driven association because members can and recognition of the American Avalanche Association PO Box 1135 Driggs, Idaho 83422 elect or remove members of the board. Also, in member- and position us for a strong and bright future. tel: (208) 709-4073 driven organizations members express their wants and To this end, I invite you to take a short survey to help our [email protected] needs and their push is to the board. However, for 25 strategic planning process. The survey will be available years we have operated more as a member-supported until the first of May. Your input is important to advance Advertising: Production: Jazz Russell Fall Line Design organization where the board drives the organization the avalanche profession: 3695 Teewinot St 76 N Main, Suite 208 and the members support the board. This approach Driggs, ID 83422 Driggs, ID 83422 www.surveymonkey.com/s/AAA_survey_2012 tel: (208) 354-2524 tel/fax: (208) 354-6500 worked because we were small and relied a high degree fax: (208) 354-6500 [email protected] on volunteers (on whom we will still rely on in the future). [email protected] As our numbers gradually grew we have employed At the May board meeting we executive directors. Currently Mark Mueller resolutely will be working to define the Business and Subscription Office: Mark Mueller –– AAA Executive Director and ably directs our day-to-day operations. association’s vision and begin PO Box 2831 Our association is ready to mature, especially as society development of our strategic Pagosa Springs, CO 81147 – commercial, governmental and recreational – is now plan. The target is to complete tel: (970) 946-0822 / fax: (970) 731-2486 and implement the strategic plan [email protected] starting to recognize our profession and the importance of avalanche professionals. As a result (at least right now) at the fall membership meeting. our membership is growing and growing fast. Thank you for your support. It’s time to evaluate our progress and look forward. We look forward to hearing We need a vision to the future. To look to the future we from you. have to decide what we want AAA to become and what —Dale Atkins, AAA president R Executive Director .....................Mark Mueller from the editor AAA Officers *President ................................Dale Atkins What’s YOUR Level of Risk Tolerance, *Vice President .........................John Stimberis *Secretary.................................Mike Bartholow *Treasurer.................................Mike Ferrari Personally & Professionally? Committee Chairs This final issue of volume 30 of TAR is another fat one. There Awards ......................................Halsted Morris is finally time to collect stories and case studies from this Data..........................................vacant Education .................................Sarah Carpenter, Kirk Bachman winter, see how the weather history played out into avalanche Ethics .......................................Lel Tone stories. For this year, early drought led to a pervasive deep- IT/Web .......................................vacant slab problem. Patience and risk tolerance became the operative Membership ..............................Stuart Thompson Research...................................Jordy Hendrikx topics. I chose to focus on risk tolerance as the theme for the Search & Rescue ......................Rich Browne April TAR, especially on the differences between personal Ski Area ....................................Bill Williamson and professional risk tolerance. In the pages to come, you *Publications............................Blase Reardon will find a wide variety of contributors weighing in on their Publications Committee Editor ........................................Lynne Wolfe views of risk. For perspective, I have drawn from the climbing Editor Emeritus .........................Steve Conger and mountaineering community in addition to the avalanche Editor Emeritus .........................Sue Ferguson community, as they have each been thinking hard about this Editor Emeritus .........................Blase Reardon Editor Emeritus .........................Bruce Tremper topic for quite some time. Will Gadd’s brutally honest look at risk Section Representatives spawned some further introspection from other mountaineers; Alaska…............................. .....Matt Murphy Phil Powers and Margaret Wheeler expand on that look with Eastern Section ........................Kyle Tyler personal and professional perspectives. Charlie Ziskin’s insight European Section ......................Krister Kristensen Intermountain North .................Scott Savage into skiing during a Considerable danger is showcased on the Intermountain South .................Jamie Yount cover for his ability to turn complicated decision-making into Northwest .................................Patty Morrison lucid prose; thanks Charlie and welcome back to the avalanche Bright colors spice up a grey Teton powder day Rockies .....................................John Brennan community. And speaking of lucid prose, I was able to pilfer Sierra ........................................Gary Murphy up near the Plummer yurt. Photo by Jane Gallie Member Representative ............Rick Grubin Karl Klassen’s essay about the complexity of snowpack at the Certified Instructor Rep ............Brad Sawtell tipping point from the new CAC forecaster’s blog. Pop over there and have a look at the range of writing where Executive Committee denoted