An Active Approach to Value Investing Investing in Value
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CHAPTER 16 ESTIMATING EQUITY VALUE PER SHARE in Chapter 15, We Considered How Best to Estimate the Value of the Operating Assets of the Firm
1 CHAPTER 16 ESTIMATING EQUITY VALUE PER SHARE In Chapter 15, we considered how best to estimate the value of the operating assets of the firm. To get from that value to the firm value, you have to consider cash, marketable securities and other non-operating assets held by a firm. In particular, you have to value holdings in other firms and deal with a variety of accounting techniques used to record such holdings. To get from firm value to equity value, you have to determine what should be subtracted out from firm value – i.e, the value of the non-equity claims in the firm. Once you have valued the equity in a firm, it may appear to be a relatively simple exercise to estimate the value per share. All it seems you need to do is divide the value of the equity by the number of shares outstanding. But, in the case of some firms, even this simple exercise can become complicated by the presence of management and employee options. In this chapter, we will measure the magnitude of this option overhang on valuation and then consider ways of incorporating the effect into the value per share. The Value of Non-operating Assets Firms have a number of assets on their books that can be categorized as non- operating assets. The first and obvious one is cash and near-cash investments – investments in riskless or very low-risk investments that most companies with large cash balances make. The second is investments in equities and bonds of other firms, sometimes for investment reasons and sometimes for strategic ones. -
Value Investing” Has Had a Rough Go of It in Recent Years
True Value “Value investing” has had a rough go of it in recent years. In this quarter’s commentary, we would like to share our thoughts about value investing and its future by answering a few questions: 1) What is “value investing”? 2) How has value performed? 3) When will it catch up? In the 1992 Berkshire Hathaway annual letter, Warren Buffett offers a characteristically concise explanation of investment, speculation, and value investing. The letter’s section on this topic is filled with so many terrific nuggets that we include it at the end of this commentary. Directly below are Warren’s most salient points related to value investing. • All investing is value investing. WB: “…we think the very term ‘value investing’ is redundant. What is ‘investing’ if it is not the act of seeking value at least sufficient to justify the amount paid?” • Price speculation is the opposite of value investing. WB: “Consciously paying more for a stock than its calculated value - in the hope that it can soon be sold for a still-higher price - should be labeled speculation (which is neither illegal, immoral nor - in our view - financially fattening).” • Value is defined as the net future cash flows produced by an asset. WB: “In The Theory of Investment Value, written over 50 years ago, John Burr Williams set forth the equation for value, which we condense here: The value of any stock, bond or business today is determined by the cash inflows and outflows - discounted at an appropriate interest rate - that can be expected to occur during the remaining life of the asset.” • The margin-of-safety principle – buying at a low price-to-value – defines the “Graham & Dodd” school of value investing. -
The Cost of Equity Capital for Reits: an Examination of Three Asset-Pricing Models
MIT Center for Real Estate September, 2000 The Cost of Equity Capital for REITs: An Examination of Three Asset-Pricing Models David N. Connors Matthew L. Jackman Thesis, 2000 © Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2000. This paper, in whole or in part, may not be cited, reproduced, or used in any other way without the written permission of the authors. Comments are welcome and should be directed to the attention of the authors. MIT Center for Real Estate, 77 Massachusetts Avenue, Building W31-310, Cambridge, MA, 02139-4307 (617-253-4373). THE COST OF EQUITY CAPITAL FOR REITS: AN EXAMINATION OF THREE ASSET-PRICING MODELS by David Neil Connors B.S. Finance, 1991 Bentley College and Matthew Laurence Jackman B.S.B.A. Finance, 1996 University of North Carolinaat Charlotte Submitted to the Department of Urban Studies and Planning in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE IN REAL ESTATE DEVELOPMENT at the MASSACHUSETTS INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY September 2000 © 2000 David N. Connors & Matthew L. Jackman. All Rights Reserved. The authors hereby grant to MIT permission to reproduce and to distribute publicly paper and electronic (\aopies of this thesis in whole or in part. Signature of Author: - T L- . v Department of Urban Studies and Planning August 1, 2000 Signature of Author: IN Department of Urban Studies and Planning August 1, 2000 Certified by: Blake Eagle Chairman, MIT Center for Real Estate Thesis Supervisor Certified by: / Jonathan Lewellen Professor of Finance, Sloan School of Management Thesis Supervisor -
Not All Value Is True Value: the Case for Quality-Value Investing
For professional use only Not all value is true value: the case for quality-value investing • A rise in inflation could prompt a long-awaited resurgence for value stocks • Investors looking to add a value tilt can benefit from a quality-value approach with a focus on dividend sustainability • Stringent ESG integration and an adaptive approach can help value investors navigate turbulence and beat the market www.nnip.com Not all value is true value: the case for quality-value investing Inflation-related speculation has reached fever pitch in recent weeks. Signs of rising consumer prices are leading equity investors to abandon the growth stocks that have outperformed for more than a decade, and to look instead to the long-unloved value sectors that would benefit from rising inflation. How can investors interested in incorporating a value tilt in their portfolios best take advantage of this opportunity? We explain why we believe a quality-value approach, with a focus on long-term stability, adaptiveness and ESG integration, is the way to go. Value sectors have by and large underperformed since the continue delivering hefty fiscal support. In particular, 10-year Great Financial Crisis. There are several reasons for this. bond yields – a common market indicator that inflation might be Central banks have taken to using unconventional tools that about to increase – have been steadily climbing over the past distorted the yield curve, such as quantitative easing, which few months (see Figure 1). has led many investors to pay significant premiums for growth stocks. All-time-low interest rates and the absence of inflation- ary pressures have exacerbated this trend. -
The Continuing Evolution of NAV Facilities
The continuing evolution of NAV facilities Meyer C. Dworkin & Samantha Hait Davis Polk & Wardwell LLP Background In recent years, credit facilities provided to private equity funds have been dominated by two forms: “Subscription Facilities” and “NAV Facilities”. Subscription Facilities – sometimes referred to as “capital call” credit facilities – have become increasingly common for newer funds with significant unfunded capital commitments, with the loans thereunder secured by the fund’s right to call such capital commitments from its investors. Availability under Subscription Facilities is subject to a “borrowing base”, calculated as an agreed advance percentage of unfunded commitments of certain “included” investors in the fund (with the inclusion and “advance rates” dependent on the creditworthiness of each such investor). Subscription Facilities are generally intended to serve a fund borrower’s short- term capital needs by bridging the time between the issuance of capital calls to investors and the time such capital is actually contributed. For many funds, however, Subscription Facilities are not a viable option, either because the fund’s organisational documents do not permit such facilities or, in the case of a mature fund, the fund has already called a significant portion of its commitments, leaving it with minimal unfunded commitments against which to borrow. These private equity funds have sought instead to raise capital through “asset backed” or net asset value facilities: “NAV Facilities”. NAV Facilities are credit facilities backed by the fund’s investment portfolio. For a “fund- of-funds”, these assets will typically be the limited partnership and other equity interests in hedge funds and private equity funds, consisting of both primary investments as well as those purchased in the secondary market. -
Growth, Profitability and Equity Value
Growth, Profitability and Equity Value Meng Li and Doron Nissim* Columbia Business School July 2014 Abstract When conducting valuation analysis, practitioners and researchers typically predict growth and profitability separately, implicitly assuming that these two value drivers are uncorrelated. However, due to economic and accounting effects, profitability shocks increase both growth and subsequent profitability, resulting in a strong positive correlation between growth and subsequent profitability. This correlation increases the expected value of future earnings and thus contributes to equity value. We show that the value effect of the growth-profitability covariance on average explains more than 10% of equity value, and its magnitude varies substantially with firm size (-), volatility (+), profitability (-), and expected growth (+). The covariance value effect is driven by both operating and financing activities, but large effects are due primarily to operating shocks. One implication of our findings is that conducting scenario analysis or using other methods that incorporate the growth-profitability correlation (e.g., Monte Carlo simulations, decision trees) is particularly important when valuing small, high volatility, low profitability, or high growth companies. In contrast, for mature, high profitability companies, covariance effects are typically small and their omission is not likely to significantly bias value estimates. * Corresponding author; 604 Uris Hall, 3022 Broadway, New York, NY 10027; phone: (212) 854-4249; [email protected]. -
Value Investing Iii: Requiem, Rebirth Or Reincarnation!
VALUE INVESTING III: REQUIEM, REBIRTH OR REINCARNATION! The Lead In Value Investing has lost its way! ¨ It has become rigid: In the decades since Ben Graham published Security Analysis, value investing has developed rules for investing that have no give to them. Some of these rules reflect value investing history (screens for current and quick ratios), some are a throwback in time and some just seem curmudgeonly. For instance, ¤ Value investing has been steadfast in its view that companies that do not have significant tangible assets, relative to their market value, and that view has kept many value investors out of technology stocks for most of the last three decades. ¤ Value investing's focus on dividends has caused adherents to concentrate their holdings in utilities, financial service companies and older consumer product companies, as younger companies have shifted away to returning cash in buybacks. ¨ It is ritualistic: The rituals of value investing are well established, from the annual trek to Omaha, to the claim that your investment education is incomplete unless you have read Ben Graham's Intelligent Investor and Security Analysis to an almost unquestioning belief that anything said by Warren Buffett or Charlie Munger has to be right. ¨ And righteous: While investors of all stripes believe that their "investing ways" will yield payoffs, some value investors seem to feel entitled to high returns because they have followed all of the rules and rituals. In fact, they view investors who deviate from the script as shallow speculators, but are convinced that they will fail in the "long term". 2 1. -
The Death of Value Investing and the Dawn of a New Tech-Driven Investment Paradigm
Aquaa Partners Investment Research The Death of Value Investing and the Dawn of a New Tech-Driven Investment Paradigm Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Aquaa Partners Ltd. is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority The Death of Value Investing and the Dawn of a New Tech-Driven Investment Paradigm Overview For almost a century many institutional investors have pursued value-oriented investment strategies centred around an investment paradigm of buying securities, typically of non-tech (and legacy tech) companies, that appear under-priced by some form of fundamental analysis. ...These superior returns [from tech companies], In this, the first in a series of research papers by Aquaa Partners, we employ quantitative analysis to examine the coupled with lower shortcomings of this value-led approach and demonstrate volatility, demonstrate how these strategies undervalue the critical role technology how the fundamental risk- companies now play in delivering investor returns. reward relationship in Our evidence highlights the changing nature of tech stocks finance is now consistently and their increasing capacity to confound traditional being broken. investment expectations by delivering significant returns compared to traditional stocks. These superior returns, coupled with lower volatility, demonstrate how the fundamental risk-reward relationship in finance is now consistently being broken. The long-term perspective Much investing today continues to be achieved through the rear-view mirror of accounting rather than through the windshield of technological change. However, investing is about the future. Assuming you are not investing on a quarter-to-quarter basis, which is essentially trading, then investment decisions should be made with a long-term view. -
Careers in Quantitative Finance by Steven E
Careers in Quantitative Finance by Steven E. Shreve1 August 2018 1 What is Quantitative Finance? Quantitative finance as a discipline emerged in the 1980s. It is also called financial engineering, financial mathematics, mathematical finance, or, as we call it at Carnegie Mellon, computational finance. It uses the tools of mathematics, statistics, and computer science to solve problems in finance. Computational methods have become an indispensable part of the finance in- dustry. Originally, mathematical modeling played the dominant role in com- putational finance. Although this continues to be important, in recent years data science and machine learning have become more prominent. Persons working in the finance industry using mathematics, statistics and computer science have come to be known as quants. Initially relegated to peripheral roles in finance firms, quants have now taken center stage. No longer do traders make decisions based solely on instinct. Top traders rely on sophisticated mathematical models, together with analysis of the current economic and financial landscape, to guide their actions. Instead of sitting in front of monitors \following the market" and making split-second decisions, traders write algorithms that make these split- second decisions for them. Banks are eager to hire \quantitative traders" who know or are prepared to learn this craft. While trading may be the highest profile activity within financial firms, it is not the only critical function of these firms, nor is it the only place where quants can find intellectually stimulating and rewarding careers. I present below an overview of the finance industry, emphasizing areas in which quantitative skills play a role. -
Net Asset Value Purchase Application Attach To: Account Application Or IRA Application
Net Asset Value Purchase Application Attach to: Account Application or IRA Application Net Asset Value Purchase is Available Because Account Owner is: All future purchases will be at NAV: Account should be coded NAV Account (a) Purchases by qualified retirement and benefit plans. (b) Non-dealer assisted (or assisted only by the Distributor) purchases by bank or trust company in a single account where such bank or trust company is named as the trustee. (c) Non-dealer assisted (or assisted only by the Distributor) purchase by banks, insurance companies, insurance company separate accounts and other institutional purchasers. (d) A registered investment adviser purchasing shares on behalf of a client or on his or her own behalf through an intermediary service institution offering a separate and established program for registered investment advisers and notifying the Funds and Distributor of such arrangement. (e) Fee-based account clients of registered investment advisers. (f) Sales through a broker-dealer to its customer under an arrangement in which the customer pays the broker-dealer a fee based on the value of the account, in lieu of transaction based brokerage. (g) Sales to broker-dealers who conduct their business with their customers principally through the Internet and do not have registered representatives who actively solicit those customers to purchase securities, including shares of the Funds. (h) Any current or retired Officer, Director or employee of the Funds, Adviser, Distributor or any affiliated company thereof. This shall also apply to their immediate family members. (i) Registered representatives, their spouses and minor children, and employees of dealer firms that have a distribution agreement with the Distributor. -
Mutual Funds: Understanding NAV, Yield, and Total Return
Mutual Funds: Understanding NAV, Yield, and Total Return Mutual fund investors will commonly encounter three key metrics: the NAV, the yield, and the total return. Comprehending the differences and inter-relationships of these metrics is critical to understanding how well (or poorly) you have done with your mutual fund selection. Calculating the NAV A mutual fund's net asset value (NAV) represents its per-share price and is calculated by dividing a fund's total net assets by its number of shares outstanding. Because shares in regular open-end mutual funds are bought and sold at NAV, NAVs may seem similar to stock prices; after all, both represent the price of one share of an investment. Both appear in newspapers and on financial websites. But that's where the similarities between NAVs and stock prices end. A mutual fund calculates its NAV by adding up the current value of all the stocks, bonds, and other securities (including cash) in its portfolio, subtracting the manager's salary and other operating expenses, and then dividing that figure by the fund's total number of shares. For example, a fund with 500,000 shares that owns $9 million in stocks and $1 million in cash has an NAV of $20. So Alike but So Very Different NAVs and stock prices differ in five important ways. 1. Stock prices change throughout the trading day, but mutual fund NAVs are calculated only once each day, based on the value of their stocks or bonds at the time the market closes. When you purchase a mutual fund, you buy shares at the NAV as of that day's close. -
Global Trends in Mid-Market Private Equity Investing
Investment Perspectives MARCH 2021 GLOBAL TRENDS IN MID-MARKET PRIVATE EQUITY INVESTING GLOBAL TRENDS IN MID-MARKET PRIVATE EQUITY INVESTING | 1 We are delighted to share our aspects in the management of There are macro developments that perspective and insights on some of portfolio companies: workers’ give us reason to be optimistic. In the major industry trends influencing safety, cost control, and supply chain December 2020, within days of the our private equity business, and what maintenance. In particular, managers, transition period deadline, a new this means for 2021 and beyond. with the support of a banking Brexit deal was agreed between the system that showed more flexibility EU and the UK, removing significant As we reflect on 2020, it is clear that compared to the last recession along uncertainty and volatility from the this was a year of two halves. Private with a greater role of private credit market. As the global vaccine rollout equity deal-making fell sharply as capital as a buffer, particularly in the gathers pace and life returns to the pandemic took hold. Sponsors middle market, ensured portfolio some form of normality, increased quickly turned their attention to their companies implemented important consumer spending will have a portfolios rather than commit to new measures aimed at safeguarding direct benefit on consumer-facing investment opportunities. Indeed, liquidity. In addition, managers businesses, albeit gradually, which there were winners, such as tech and have taken full advantage of simulates the performance of healthcare companies that benefitted programs made available by national companies coming out of a recession. from healthy capital markets and the governments, including tax breaks, History shows that this is an excellent IPO window, and losers, such as travel social security safety-nets and other time to invest.