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World Bank Document ANNEX V No. E 78 CONFIDENTIAL ~-- --" · ..- ~ -.,' his report is restricted to those members of the staff to whose work it directly relates. Public Disclosure Authorized INTERNATIONAL BANK FOR RECONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT Public Disclosure Authorized ETHIOPIA A PRELIMINARY ECONOMIC SURVEY February 1950 Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Economic Department J. H. Collier ETHI()PIA REO SEA ."" ... ,..... '.' ... .',.,,' ,.,,' ",.. '" ." "i' ..····,: .:;'.:::: ."""''''"'"-----....•. ::.. ::. OF ADEN I I BRITISH SOMALI LAND I j SUDAN .~ . /", .... ." i i 'j) .i ..... ,." i \ "' I ! I KENYA I I INDIAN OCEAN I KEY _._._.- INTERNATIONAL BOUNDARIES MILES -------- PROVINCIAL BOUNDARIES , 111111111 RAILROADS o 100 200 PRINCIPAL MOTOR ROADS (Not all usable in rainy season 1 --- RIVERS M-33 La.RD. - Economic Dept. TABLE OF CONTENTS Summary . .. .. .. .. .. ~ . .. .. .. .. .. .. ..- . .. .. i Economic Resources and Develonment Problems • • • 1 Agricul ture •• • • • . • • • ." • • • • • . 1 iJiine:ral s • • • • • • • • • . 2 Trallsport ... .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. • • 3 External Trade • . • • • • •• .. .. • " •• .- • .' ... .. It .. .. .. .. .. • " 6 Currency and Bankin~ •••• • ..... If ••• ·.'· •••• •• 10 Public Finance • • • • . .. .. .. .. 13 Budget . .. .. .. .. 13 External Debt 14 Balance of Payments and Present International Position ; ¢ 17 Balance of Payments • • . • . • • • . .. .- . .. 17 Effect of the Devaluation of Sterling 19 Conclusion .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. , .. .. .. .. .. .. II .. • 22 The Problem'of Local Financing • . • • " If .. .. , , .. 22 Servioing the Loan • • • • • • • • • . .. "" . 24 Appendix .. .. .. .. 26 Brief Sketch of the History of Ethiopia . 26 BibliographY SUM!WtY 1. Ethiopia has furnished the Bank ld th details of certain "First Priority Projects" with an estimated total cost of $8.9 million. They form part of a $25 million program \lrhich is itself part of a "!vfaster Plan" costing $91 million. The "Master Plan" "ras originally prepared by a United States Technical Mission to Ethiopia in 1944-45 J and consists of a $70 million dollar program of public I.forks and services and an industrial program requiTing a fi~ed capital of $17 million and a working capital of $4 million. The expen­ diture ~fas to be spread over 10 years, the estimates including the cost of foreign technical personnel. 2. The economy of Ethiopia is ,,'holly agricultural. The population (about 10 million) mostly inhabit a mountainous plateau in the north l,rest of the country. The soils are predominantly fertile and c~pable of producing a large variety of crops from '\<Theat and barley on the one hand to coffee on the other. Ethiopia's main exports are coffee. hides and skins, cereals and oilseeds. The two latter are post"rar developments l.,hich have been stimulated by high "'orid prices; lqhether the country Can continue to export them at a profi t depends largely on t"ro factors: transport costs and the quality of the product. The prices obtained for Ethiopiat s exports could be markedly increased if serious efforts were made to improve qual~ty and grading. Steps in this direction are already being taken. Transport has ahrays been a pro b­ lem in Ethiopia. a relatively isolated country "rith difficult t;~rain. The road system constructed by the Italians ,.rill be a great help in this respect but transport costs are still high. ;. The mineral resources of the country have not been thoroughly ex­ plored. Gold is the only import~~t mineral export but the Sinclair 011 Company is at present drilling for 011. - n- 4. The currency sy~tem "Tas completely reorganized in 1945 ,.,hen the Ethiopian dollar was established (Eth. $2.48 =U.S. $1). Previously the main currena,y had been the Maria Theresa dollar, a full-bodied silver coin. The Central Bank, the State ]ank of Ethiopia. began operations in 1943. S. The budget. in its present-day form, is also a comparatively ne1!r development. It is not very long since government revenue could more correctly have been called "tribute" and ~,ras often collected in kind from the provinces. This, and the primitive nature of bookkeeping, hampers the Government1s efforts to increase and collect taxes. A more efficient revenue system is a necessity for any sustained development program. For the last t',tO years the budget has been appro~imately balanced but no reliable information on this point has been obtained. 6. Ethiopia had a small favorable trade balance in 1946, 47 and 48 but appears to have had a deficit in 1949. The devaluation of sterling affeeted the country adversely as a large part of the note cover ,..ras held in the form of sterling securities. In late September 1949, it ','as found necessary to impose exchange controls. Ethiopia has been obliged to purchase dollars from the Fund on ti<10 separate occasions, $300.000 in 1948 and another $300,000 in Cctober 1949. HOi.rever. the U.S. trade statistics sho"r Ethiopia as having a substantial export surplus ,«Ti th the U. S.; the exchange controls may therefore have a marked effect in improving the dollar position. 7. Since the \.rar Ethiopia has obta.ined a credit of 7.5 million kronor from S1Heden and two credits from the U. S.; a $3 million Export-Iumort Bank loan and a credit of $1 million under the "rar Surplus operations. lio re:oay,... menta are yet due, or at least none appear to have been made for there is no item for servioe of the debt appearing in the balance of payments. The total amount involved is the equivalent of about U.S. $5.25 million. - Hi - 8. From the figures at present obtainable it seems that the avail­ ability of local financing is more likely to set a limit to the scale of possible Bank operations than is the balance of payments. The 3thiopians propose to reduce the proportion of the note issue '''hlch is required to be covere~ by foreign exchange from 75 per cent to 30 per cent. This would release about Eth. $17.5 million of foreign exchange of ",hich it is hoped that at least half (i.e. about U.S. $).5 million) "rill be used for develop­ ment purposes. 9. A judgment of the repayment capacity of Ethiopia from the point of vie", of her dollar balance of payments must await further information of the "/orking of the ne"r exchange controls. ECONOruc RESOpRCES Arm DEVELOPMENT PR9BLEMS Agriculture 10. The population of Ethiopia is probably about 10 or 11 million and the area of the country is 350,000 square miles or about four times the size of Great Britain. The inhabited section of the country is a mountain plateau ,.rhich is highest in the north and slopes gradually dO'l}rn tOl'Tards the south. There is a large Variety of soils, predominantly fertile, and many different crops can be grOl/TIl, from cereals of the temperate zone, such as Ilrheat and bar­ ley in the north, to coffee on the southern slopes of the plateau. Agricul­ tural methods are generally primitive although terracing, contour~ploughing and irrigation are skillfully practised in some areas. ','ihile the heavy rain­ fall and mountainous country give rise to urgent ~roblems of soil conservation these do not appear to dominate the economic scene as is the case in some other parts of Africa. It seems to be generally held by agriculturalists that the possibilitie~ of economic development, both agricultural and pastoral, are considerable. Cereals are by far the most important crop and the largest export, fol101,red by coffee, hides and skins and oilseeds. OUsseds are a ne,·' development and exports have increased rapidly since 1946. 'l'I,ro other ne1l' possibilities ".rhich. ~e contemplated are cotton production and meat canning for export. Ethiopia possesses one 10,000 spindle cotton mill and plans to extend textile production; the encouragement of cotton cultivation is to be linked to this program. 11. The cattle population of ~thiopia is estimated to be 16.5 million and it has been calculated that 350,000 head could be exported annually 1"i thout jeopardizing local supplies. During 1948 Stettinius Associates I.Tere engaged in negotiations 1~,ith the Ethiopians concerning the establishment, among other - 2 - things, of a textile mill and a meat processing plant. While their survey revealed that the textile mill would in itself be a profitable venture, the Ethiopian Government ~'.1anted them to undertake a eountrY-1Joride program of in­ cref;\sed cotton acreage ",hich they felt unable to do. The meat project also involved difficulties. The cattle "rere grass fed "rithout much possibility of fattening "rhich Nould deprive the plant of economically necessary by­ products. Secondly, since cattle are a symbol of wealth to many natives it was felt unlikely that a steady supply ,.rould be forthcoming in exchange for Ethiopian dollars. Finally, canned meat 1/>TaS not an economical air cargo and freight rates on the railway ",ere uneconomically high. Both these projects have been mentioned to IBRD as possible candidates for Bank financing. Minerals 12. Ethiopia is reputed to be rich in mineral 1.realth though the extent and accessibility of her resources are not yet clear. Gold. platinum, mica, potash and iron ore are l~Torked and it is probable that the country possesses coal, copper, silver. sulphur and oil. A new gold field has been discovered in the south east and production is increasing. A loan of $3 millicn "ras obtained from the Export-Import Bank and it is likely that most of it '~ill be expended for the purchase of gold mining machinery. 13. The Sinclair Petroleum Company obtained a concession in 1944 carrying the exclusive right to exploit all petroleum resources in Ethiopia for a period of 50 years. The Government is to receive 15% of the Company's production. Exploration and drilling began towards the end of 1947 but "rere interrupted by hostile demonstrations on the part of the local Somali tribes­ men. Sinclair \,'i thdrew all its personnel in January 1948 and did not resume operations until November.
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