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Largan Precision Information Technology / Taiwan 3008 TT Information Technology / Taiwan 2 April 2014 Largan Precision Largan Precision Target (TWD): 1,150.00 1,750.00 Upside: 18.2% 3008 TT 1 Apr price (TWD): 1,480.00 Dual engines to drive earnings growth 1 Buy (from Hold) 2 Outperform • We expect Largan to land the lion’s share of iPhone 6 lens- 3 Hold module orders, for which it should see a 20-30% ASP premium 4 Underperform • We forecast China brands to contribute 30-35% of Largan’s 5 Sell revenue in 2014, up from 20% in 2013 • Upgrading to Buy (1), from Hold (3); raising target price to TWD1,750 for potential upside of 18.2% How do we justify our view? China brands: rising volumes because we are more positive on and ASPs. China brands are Largan’s prospects of winning Apple upgrading their smartphone cameras orders and its revenue from China this year, which should lead to higher brands. ASPs for Largan. We also expect Forecast revisions (%) Kylie Huang Largan to increase its share of such Year to 31 Dec 14E 15E 16E (886) 2 8758 6248 orders given its leading position in Revenue change 3.3 10.4 n.a. [email protected] high-end lens modules, and forecast Net profit change 10.0 18.9 n.a. Core EPS (FD) change 10.0 18.9 n.a. China brands to contribute 30-35% Jason Chen Source: Daiwa forecasts (886) 2 8758 6251 of its revenue in 2014 (20% in 2013). [email protected] Spec upgrades should continue. Share price performance We expect lens specifications to be (TWD) (% ) ■ What's new upgraded in the next few years, and 1,500 175 1,275 151 We turn more positive on Largan’s Largan, as an industry leader, looks prospects for 2014-15, as we believe 1,050 128 well placed to benefit from this trend. 825 104 the company is in poll position to 600 80 win the majority of lens-module ■ What we recommend Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 orders for the next iPhone and will Largan (LHS) On upgrades to our profit-margin Relative to TWSE Index (RHS) benefit from the increasing volumes and revenue forecasts, we revise up of China handsets. 2014-15E EPS by 10-19%. In turn, 12-month range 688.00-1,480.00 we upgrade Largan to Buy (1), from Market cap (USDbn) 6.54 ■ What's the impact Hold (3), and raise our 6-month 3m avg daily turnover (USDm) 39.00 Likely to win more iPhone 6 target price to TWD1,750 (from Shares outstanding (m) 134 Major shareholder Ch'en Shih Ch'ing (5.1%) orders. Our recent market research TWD 1,150), based on 18x 1-year has assuaged our concern that forward EPS (formerly 14x), a 1SD Largan might face new competition Financial summary (TWD) premium to the average of its 3-year Year to 31 Dec 14E 15E 16E in securing lens-module orders for range of 9-24x, as we expect Revenue (m) 34,750 40,680 46,830 the next iPhone (iPhone 6). We now stronger operating-profit growth for Operating profit (m) 14,466 17,086 19,940 believe it will win a dominant share 2014. We forecast soft 1Q14 revenue Net profit (m) 11,955 14,088 16,489 of these orders, backed by its and earnings, which should be an Core EPS (fully-diluted) 89.125 105.022 122.923 technological edge and execution EPS change (%) 24.4 17.8 17.0 opportunity to accumulate the Daiwa vs Cons. EPS (%) 6.9 11.1 3.3 skills. Though the camera should shares. The key risk is greater-than- PER (x) 16.6 14.1 12.0 remain at 8MP, the new design expected price competition. Dividend yield (%) 1.9 3.5 4.2 should be highly complex (likely DPS 28.5 52.5 61.5 with optical image stabilisation) and PBR (x) 5.2 4.1 3.4 ■ How we differ EV/EBITDA (x) 10.8 8.7 7.9 we estimate Largan could see a 20- We are above the Bloomberg ROE (%) 35.0 32.8 31.2 30% ASP premium over 5S modules. consensus on 2014-16E EPS, likely Source: FactSet, Daiwa forecasts See important disclosures, including any required research certifications, beginning on page 14 Information Technology / Taiwan 3008 TT 2 April 2014 1 Buy (from Hold) How do we justify our view? 2 Outperform 3 Hold Growth outlook 4 Underperform Valuation 5 Sell Earnings revisions Growth outlook Largan: sales growth, EPS growth, and ROE trend Following our revisions to 2014-15E EPS, we forecast 40% 80% Largan’s earnings to grow by 24% YoY (13% previously) 35% 70% for 2014 and 18% YoY (9% previously) for 2015. The 30% 60% company reported 72% YoY growth in EPS for 2013. 25% 50% 20% 40% Given our expectation that Largan will secure the lion’s share of orders for lens modules for the iPhone 6 and 15% 30% see an increasing revenue contribution from China 10% 20% brands, we now forecast higher revenue growth of 27% 5% 10% YoY for 2014 (23% previously) and 17% for 2015 (10% 0% 0% previously). 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E ROE (LHS) Sales growth (RHS) EPS growth (RHS) Source: Company, Daiwa forecasts Largan: one-year-forward PER Valuation We are upgrading our rating for Largan to Buy (1), from (TWD) Hold (3), and raising our 6-month target price to 1,600 TWD1,750 (from TWD1,150), based on a one-year- 1,400 forward PER of 18x (from 14x). Our new target multiple 1,200 of 18x is 1SD above the average of its past 3-year trading 1,000 800 range of 9-24x, which we think justified as we are now 600 more upbeat on Largan’s operating-profit growth in 400 2014. 200 0 The stock is trading at PERs of 16.6x for 2014E and Mar-02 Mar-03 Mar-04 Mar-05 Mar-06 Mar-07 Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 14.1x for 2015E, which we view as undemanding given Sep-02 Sep-03 Sep-04 Sep-05 Sep-06 Sep-07 Sep-08 Sep-09 Sep-10 Sep-11 Sep-12 Sep-13 our forecast for solid earnings growth over the same Largan 6x 12x 18x 24x period. Source: TEJ, Daiwa forecasts Largan: Bloomberg 2014-15 EPS forecast revisions Earnings revisions The Bloomberg-consensus 2014-15 EPS forecasts have (TWD) risen steadily over the past 2 years in response to strong 120 growth in Largan’s revenue and earnings on the back of 100 Apple’s “iDevices”. Following the 10-19% increases to 80 our 2014-15 EPS forecasts, we are 7-11% above the consensus forecasts, likely because we are more positive 60 on the prospect of Largan winning the majority of lens 40 module orders for the iPhone 6 and on the revenue 20 contribution of China brands. 0 Jul-12 Jul-13 Jan-13 Jan-14 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Sep-12 Nov-12 Sep-13 Nov-13 May-12 May-13 2014E EPS 2015E EPS Source: Bloomberg - 2 - Information Technology / Taiwan 3008 TT 2 April 2014 Financial summary Key assumptions Year to 31 Dec 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E Mobile phone lens shipment ('000 173,300 215,100 286,554 344,730 483,614 580,082 671,119 781,364 units) Blended ASP of handset lens (USD) 1.12 1.21 1.33 1.34 1.47 1.66 1.70 1.72 Gross margin of VCM assembly (%) 5.0 7.3 6.8 5.3 6.0 6.0 6.0 5.0 Profit and loss (TWDm) Year to 31 Dec 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E Mobile Phone Lens Revenues 7,421 11,433 15,243 19,190 26,623 34,007 39,639 45,950 DSC Lens Revenues 377 555 391 415 449 452 446 109 Other Revenue 357 363 351 468 362 292 595 771 Total Revenue 8,154 12,351 15,984 20,072 27,433 34,750 40,680 46,830 Other income 00000000 COGS (4,580) (6,546) (9,043) (11,710) (14,472) (17,782) (20,828) (23,930) SG&A (345) (374) (506) (530) (887) (1,018) (1,126) (1,205) Other op.expenses (507) (770) (963) (1,034) (1,293) (1,484) (1,640) (1,755) Operating profit 2,722 4,661 5,472 6,798 10,781 14,466 17,086 19,940 Net-interest inc./(exp.) 30 28 50 84 122 168 233 321 Assoc/forex/extraord./others (109) (356) 314 (71) 598 (55) (54) (54) Pre-tax profit 2,643 4,334 5,837 6,811 11,501 14,580 17,264 20,207 Tax (157) (289) (638) (1,234) (1,891) (2,624) (3,177) (3,718) Min. int./pref. div./others 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Net profit (reported) 2,486 4,044 5,199 5,578 9,610 11,955 14,088 16,489 Net profit (adjusted) 2,486 4,044 5,199 5,578 9,610 11,955 14,088 16,489 EPS (reported)(TWD) 18.651 30.150 38.755 41.581 71.640 89.125 105.022 122.923 EPS (adjusted)(TWD) 18.651 30.150 38.755 41.581 71.640 89.125 105.022 122.923 EPS (adjusted fully-diluted)(TWD) 18.651 30.150 38.755 41.581 71.640 89.125 105.022 122.923 DPS (TWD) 10.064 13.500 17.000 17.000 34.000 28.500 52.511 61.461 EBIT 2,722 4,661 5,472 6,798 10,781 14,466 17,086 19,940 EBITDA 3,344 5,398 6,372 8,005 12,229 16,262 19,169 19,940 Cash flow (TWDm) Year to 31 Dec 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E Profit before tax 2,643 4,334 5,837 6,811 11,501 14,580 17,264 20,207 Depreciation and amortisation 622 737 900 1,208 1,448 1,796 2,083 2,371 Tax paid (157) (289) (638) (1,234) (1,891) (2,624) (3,177) (3,718) Change in working capital (466) (539) 1,202 (783) (363) (1,776) (1,058) (852) Other operational CF items 14 21 18 (2) 51 (5) (6) (6) Cash flow from operations 2,656 4,263 7,318 6,000 10,746 11,969 15,107 18,002 Capex (1,057) (1,066) (3,149) (2,865) (1,504) (2,500) (2,500) (2,500) Net (acquisitions)/disposals (20) (1) (2) (101) 9 (10) (10) (10) Other investing CF items (26) (21) (23) (19) (1,593) 1,654 0 0 Cash flow from investing (1,103) (1,088) (3,173) (2,985) (3,088) (856) (2,510) (2,510) Change in debt (120) 142 319 (356) 12 (4) 0 0 Net share issues/(repurchases) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Dividends paid (1,301) (1,341) (1,811) (2,280) (2,280) (4,561) (3,823) (7,044) Other financing CF items 591 (23) 37 (43) 51 0 0 0 Cash flow from financing (831) (1,223) (1,456) (2,679) (2,217) (4,565) (3,823) (7,044) Forex effect/others 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Change in cash 723 1,952 2,690 336 5,440 6,549 8,774 8,448 Free cash flow 1,599 3,197 4,169 3,136 9,242 9,469 12,607 15,502 Source: FactSet, Daiwa forecasts - 3 - Information Technology / Taiwan 3008 TT 2 April 2014 Financial summary continued … Balance sheet (TWDm) As at
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