International Journal of Management and Applied Science, ISSN: 2394-7926 Volume-2, Issue-12, Dec.-2016 IS THE SAARC HAVING A FUTURE? - A CRITICAL REVIEW

ANAND SAGAR

Research Scholar, Department of Management, Shri Jagdishprasad Jhabarmal Tibrewala University, Jhunjhunu, Rajasthan, E-mail: [email protected]

Abstract- Indian government’s initiatives and its diplomatic offensive have been able to isolate on the world forum, including among SAARC Nations. is exploring the possibility of creating a greater South Asian economic alliance to include , and neighbouring Central Asian countries. Pakistan described the China-Pakistan economic corridor as the key economic route linking South Asia with Central Asia. This was the first time that four countries, India, , & announced to boycott a SAARC summit scheduled to be held in Islamabad in November, 2016. India’s announcement not attending the summit underlined the growing irrelevance of the SAARC for India’s regionalism. Irrespective of India’s future relations with Pakistan, the Indian government’s search for alternatives to SAARC acquired a new momentum. As SAARC seems to be heading for the mortuary, India should take initiatives and let the BIMSTEC leaders know that the meltdown of SAARC does not mean India is giving up the ambitions of its neighbor-hood first strategy. In this direction, giving the BIMSTEC a more attractive name “BOBCOM” (The Bay of Bengal Community? is already under way and if the negative attitude of Pakistan persists, hopefully India will be able to find an alternative to the SAARC and establish BOBCOM by isolating Pakistan.

Index terms- SAARC, Summit, SAARC Nations, Boycott of Pakistan, Regional Cooperation, Islamabad, China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, BIMSTEC, BOBCOM.

I. INTRODUCTION II. REVIEW OF LITERATURE

A day after India announced that it would not attend Shubhajit Roy & Yubaraj Ghimire (2016) A day the 19th SAARC summit in Islamabad in November, after India announced it will not attend the 19th 2016, Afghanistan, Bangladesh and Bhutan also SAARC summit in Islamabad in November, conveyed their inability to attend the summit. All Afghanistan, Bangladesh and Bhutan have conveyed three countries, in different ways, blamed Pakistan to , the chair of SAARC, that they too will not for the then atmosphere and said that the atmosphere be able to attend the summit. All three countries, in was not conducive for the summit. This was the first different ways, blamed Pakistan for the current time that four countries announced to boycott a atmosphere and said it was not conducive for the SAARC summit. India’s announcement underlined summit. A formal announcement of the summit the growing irrelevance of the SAARC for India’s postponement will be made in Kathmandu in the next regionalism. Irrespective of India’s future relations few days, since key government interlocutors in with Pakistan, the Indian government’s search for Nepal are not present in Kathmandu. alternatives to SAARC acquired a new momentum. In a statement, the Nepal Foreign Ministry said: “The Indian government’s initiatives and its diplomatic government of Nepal has received communications offensive have been able to isolate Pakistan on the from the SAARC secretariat transmitting the world forum, especially among SAARC Nations. diplomatic notes from four SAARC member states Islamabad on the other hand is exploring the namely, Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan and India possibility of creating a greater South Asian in which they have conveyed their inability to economic alliance by including China, Iran and participate in the 19th SAARC summit scheduled for neighbouring Central Asian countries. Pakistan even November 9 and 10 in Islamabad, stating that the described the China-Pakistan economic corridor as current regional environment is not conducive to the the key economic route linking South Asia with successful holding of the summit.” “We have taken Central Asia. Pakistan announced that The Gwadar this development seriously. As the current chair of port would be the nearest warm water port, not only SAARC, the government of Nepal strongly urges that for China but also for the land-locked Central Asian a conducive environment be created for the 19th countries. SAARC summit soon by ensuring the participation of all member states in line with the spirit of the SAARC may be headed to the mortuary, but India SAARC charter,” the Ministry stated. should take initiatives to play a bigger role and let the BIMSTEC leaders know that the meltdown of In its letter to the SAARC secretariat, Bangladesh SAARC does not mean India is giving up the said, “The growing interference in the internal affairs ambitions of its neighbor-hood first strategy. of Bangladesh by one country has created an environment which is not conducive to the successful hosting of the 19th SAARC Summit in Islamabad in

Is the Saarc Having a Future? - A Critical Review

1 International Journal of Management and Applied Science, ISSN: 2394-7926 Volume-2, Issue-12, Dec.-2016 November 2016.” “Bangladesh, as initiator of the become the champion and guardian of the trans- SAARC process, remains steadfast in its commitment border China-Pakistan economic corridor. to regional cooperation, connectivity and contacts but believes that these can only go forward in a more Shubhajit Roy (2016) EVEN AS the Indian congenial atmosphere. In view of the above, government feels that its diplomatic offensive to Bangladesh is unable to participate in the proposed isolate Pakistan is yielding dividends, Islamabad is Summit in Islamabad.” Pakistan has been critical of exploring the possibility of creating a greater South the war crimes trial in Bangladesh, initiated by Asian economic alliance to include China, Iran and Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, and has neighbouring Central Asian countries. Pakistan’s repeatedly criticised Dhaka for the hanging of move to counter India’s dominance in the region was Jamaat-e-Islami leaders. In fact, Bangladesh did not reported by Dawn newspaper on Wednesday. send its Home Minister for the SAARC Interior Pakistan’s diplomatic sources confirmed the move to Ministers’ meeting in Islamabad last month, which The Indian Express on Wednesday. “India is in a was attended by Home Minister Rajnath Singh. fictional paradise and it wants to isolate Pakistan. It is underestimating Pakistan’s geo-economic location… C. Raja Mohan (2016) Prime Minister Narendra countries and partners are queueing up to take Modi’s decision to skip the South Asian summit in advantage of its economic potential,” said a source. Islamabad next month is, in essence, about the The Dawn report said a parliamentary delegation deteriorating relationship with Pakistan. It also from Pakistan, which is now in New York, pitched underlines the growing irrelevance of the South Asian the idea during its five-day visit to Washington last Association of Regional Cooperation for India’s week. “A greater South Asia is emerging,” regionalism. Irrespective of India’s future relations Pakistan’s senator, Mushahid Hussain Syed, was with Pakistan, the Modi government’s search for quoted as saying. “This greater South Asia includes alternatives to SAARC will now acquire a new China, Iran and the neighbouring Central Asian momentum. For too long, India had conflated its republics,” he said. regionalism with SAARC that was established three decades ago at the initiative of Bangladesh. While He described the China-Pakistan economic corridor Delhi and Islamabad were both wary of the move in as the key economic route linking South Asia with the mid-1980s, it was the inward economic Central Asia. The Gwadar port, Syed said, would be orientation of the Subcontinent that limited the nearest warm water port, not only for China but possibilities for regional cooperation. As the also for the land-locked Central Asian countries. “We Subcontinent launched economic reforms in the want India to join this arrangement as well,” said 1990s, regional integration appeared a natural Syed. consequence waiting to happen. As the South Asian states opened up to the world, it seemed sensible to With Pakistan being isolated in SAARC — it was connect with each other. But that was not how it forced to postpone the summit in November after four turned out. countries, led by India, pulled out — this is being seen in New Delhi as a counter move by Pakistan’s India, on its part, inched towards accepting establishment. Indian government sources told The regionalism as an economic and political necessity. Indian Express that terrorism remains a concern for The SAARC, in turn, began to emphasise trade all countries in the region, and Pakistan earlier tried liberalisation, regional connectivity and trans-border to bring in China into the SAARC process but was economic projects. South Asia sought to evolve, not successful. “If Pakistan continues to be selective much in the manner that the Association of South against terror groups, how many countries will go East Asian Nations had stitched itself together two there,” said a source. The news report quoted decades earlier. As SAARC developed new diplomatic observers in Washington as saying that the proposals and agreements in favour of preferential proposed arrangement also suits China as it is worried trade, free trade, road and rail connectivity and cross- about India’s rapidly growing influence in the region. border energy projects, it became clear that Pakistan was the camel that slowed down the pace of the South N.S.Venkataraman (2016) The recent cancellation Asian caravan. More accurately, it was the Pakistan of the 19th summit of South Asian Association for Army headquartered in Rawalpindi that exercised the Regional Cooperation ( SAARC )that was scheduled veto. It was not that the Pakistan army was against to take place in Islamabad on November, 15 and 16, the idea of regional cooperation. At a moment when has led to serious doubts as to whether SAARC can SAARC was being formed in the mid-1980s, fulfill it’s objectives and remain as a useful forum Pakistan set up the Economic Cooperation that would be beneficial to the eight nations that are Organisation (ECO) with Iran and Turkey. After the members of the SAARC.SAARC, with member collapse of the Soviet Union, the Central Asian states states of Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, joined the ECO. More recently, Rawalpindi has Nepal, , Pakistan and , comprises 3% of the world’s area, 21% of the world’s

Is the Saarc Having a Future? - A Critical Review

2 International Journal of Management and Applied Science, ISSN: 2394-7926 Volume-2, Issue-12, Dec.-2016 population and around 9% of the global economy . countries of SAARC on the deterioration of With such strength, SAARC has the potential to regional peace and security due to terrorism and emerge as a strong centre of power in the world, with joins them in conveying our inability to prospects of emerging as a decisive economic and participate in the SAARC Summit, under the trade entity. For this to happen, there has to be unity current circumstances.” and sound understanding between the SAARC 6. This is the first time that four countries nations, which are conspicuous by absence. announced their boycott of a SAARC summit, Founded in 1985, even after 30 years , SAARC has and boycott of a SAARC summit by any head of nothing to show to claim that it has achieved even a government means that the summit had to be fraction of it’s objectives. SAARC suffers from postponed. inherent weakness ,as it’s member countries like 7. India’s decision to skip the South Asian summit Nepal Afghanistan and Maldives face political in Islamabad in October, 2016 underlined the instability. Though Bangladesh and Sri Lanka have growing irrelevance of the SAARC for India’s democratically elected stable governments , both the regionalism. Irrespective of India’s future countries have faced and have to tackle divisive relations with Pakistan, the Indian government’s internal forces. Pakistan is another member of search for alternatives to SAARC acquired a new SAARC, where several militant and terrorist groups momentum. are suspected to exist. 8. As SAARC developed new proposals and agreements in favour of preferential trade, free II. FINDINGS trade, road and rail connectivity and cross-border energy projects, it was the Pakistan Army 1. Followed by India, other member countries i.e. headquartered in Rawalpindi that exercised the Afghanistan, Bangladesh and Bhutan also veto. It was not that the Pakistan army was conveyed their inability to attend the 19th against the idea of regional cooperation. SAARC summit scheduled to be held in Rawalpindi’s problem was with the idea of Islamabad in November, 2016. All three economic integration with India. Neither the countries, in different ways, blamed Pakistan for initiatives of SAARC, nor the Indian appeals, the then atmosphere and said it was not were capable of changing this. conducive for the summit. 9. Although it was clear that the SAARC caravan 2. Increasing cross-border terrorist attacks in the was going nowhere with Pakistan, it seemed region and growing interference in the internal there was little that India could do. India, affairs of member states by Pakistan was the however, suggested, that those who are ready for reason behind the boycott of the 19th SAARC integration should move ahead. As a result, Summit in Islamabad”. Bangladesh, Bhutan, India and Nepal got 3. In its letter to the SAARC secretariat, together soon after the Kathmandu summit to Bangladesh said, “The growing interference in implement the motor vehicle agreement. The the internal affairs of Bangladesh by Pakistan has BBIN framework was seen by many as heralding created an environment which is not conducive the era of ‘SAARC Minus One’ and hostile to to the successful hosting of the 19th SAARC Pakistan. The BBIN, however, was very much Summit in Islamabad in November 2016.” part of the SAARC framework. Pakistan has been critical of the war crimes trial 10. Moreover, to integrate India with Asia, Delhi in Bangladesh, initiated by Bangladesh Prime also helped creating a regional forum called the Minister Sheikh Hasina, and has repeatedly BIMSTEC (Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi- criticised Dhaka for the hanging of Jamaat-e- Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation). Islami leaders.. Although it dates back to 1997, the forum that 4. Afghanistan also conveyed that “due to increased brings five South Asian countries (Bangladesh, level of violence and fighting as a result of Bhutan, India, Nepal and Sri Lanka) together imposed terrorism on Afghanistan, the President with two south east Asian countries (Burma and of Afghanistan Mohammad Ashraf Ghani with Thailand) has remained dormant. his responsibilities as the Commander in Chief 11. Pakistan consciously embraced China as the will be fully engaged, and will not be able to strategic economic partner. Rawalpindi believes attend the Summit.”Kabul’s use of phrase that restoring historic economic connectivity “imposed terrorism on Afghanistan” is the result with India is a threat to Pakistan. of its increasing frustration with Islamabad. 12. Indian government’s initiatives and its 5. Bhutan, which was not directly affected by the diplomatic offensive have been able to isolate terrorist attacks from Pakistan-based groups, Pakistan on the world forum, especially among conveyed its inability to attend the summit, since SAARC Nations. Islamabad is exploring the it wanted to show its solidarity with South Block. possibility of creating a greater South Asian It further said, “the Royal Government of Bhutan economic alliance to include China, Iran and shares the concerns of some of the member neighbouring Central Asian countries.

Is the Saarc Having a Future? - A Critical Review

3 International Journal of Management and Applied Science, ISSN: 2394-7926 Volume-2, Issue-12, Dec.-2016 engagement with Kabul bilaterally and through 13. Terrorism remains a concern for all countries in trilateral cooperation with other partners like the region, and Pakistan earlier tried to bring in Tehran. China into the SAARC process but was not successful. The proposed arrangement also suits 3. Giving the BIMSTEC a more attractive name China as it is worried about India’s rapidly i.e. “BOBCOM” (The Bay of Bengal growing influence in the region. Community) is already under way. India should 14. Pakistan argued that China can play an important take initiatives and let the BIMSTEC leaders role in persuading Central Asian republics and know that the meltdown of SAARC does not Iran to join the new arrangement. But there is not mean India is giving up the ambitions of its much benefit for Bangladesh, Nepal and Sri neighbor-hood first strategy. If the negative Lanka in joining a land route far from their attitude of Pakistan persists, India should find an borders, and Bangladesh and Sri Lanka have alternative to the SAARC and establish their own ports. The member that is likely to BOBCOM with other neighboring countries - by benefit the most from a greater South Asian isolating Pakistan. alliance is Afghanistan, which is technically a 4. In spite of all odds, SAARC nations can become land-locked Central Asian nation. But an attractive market for the developed countries Afghanistan is too closely linked to India to join that can bring investments and contribute to any arrangement that hurts India’s interests. growth of the region. For this to happen, SAARC members need to stay together. SUGGESTIONS REFERENCES 1. Rawalpindi’s problem is with the idea of economic integration with India. Hence, instead [1] Shubhajit Roy & Yubaraj Ghimire (2016) “SAARC summit to be called off as Dhaka, Kabul and Thimphu too of bemoaning that fact, India must devote itself slam Islamabad” The Indian Express, 29th September, to bilateral, sub-regional and trans-regional 2016. cooperation with our neighbours, all of whom [2] C. Raja Mohan (2016) “Raja Mandala: SAARC (except Pakistan) want India to do more. SAARC minus one - India’s search for a alternatives to this regional forum must quicken” The Indian Express, 29th may be headed to the mortuary, but India can September, 2016. easily catch a new wind in its regional sails [3] Shubhajit Roy (2016) “Pakistan pushing for bigger 2. As Rawalpindi is deadly against letting Indian SAARC to counter India” The Indian Express, 13th goods move overland to Afghanistan, despite October, 2016. [4] N.S. Venkataraman (2016) “Does SAARC Have a fervent appeals from Kabul and an occasional Future?” Sri Lanka Guardian, 13th October, 2016. entreaty from Washington, India needs to find creative ways to deepen bilateral economic

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Is the Saarc Having a Future? - A Critical Review

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