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Energy Security and Sustainable Development in a Sia and the Pacific Energy Security and Sustainable Development in Asia and the Pacific in Asia SecurityEnergy and Sustainable Development United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific United Nations Building, Rajadamnern Nok Avenue Bangkok 10200, Thailand Tel.: +66 2 2881510 Fax: +66 2 2881048, 1059 E-mail: [email protected] [email protected] Website : http://www.unescap.org/ ESCAP is the regional development arm of the United Nations and serves as the main economic and social development centre for the United Nations in Asia and the Pacific. Its mandate is to foster cooperation between its 53 members and 9 associate members. ESCAP provides the strategic link between global and country-level programmes and issues. It supports Governments of the region in consolidating regional positions and advocates regional approaches to meeting the region’s unique socio-economic challenges in a globalizing world. The ESCAP office is located in Bangkok, Thailand. Please visit our website at <www.unescap.org> for further information. The shaded areas of the map are ESCAP Members and Associate members. The designations employed and the presentation of the material in this publication do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Secretariat of the United Nations concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city, or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers and boundaries. The views expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the United Nations. This publication may be reproduced in whole or in part for educational or non-profit Print in Bangkok United Nations publication purposes without special permission from the copyright holder, provided that the source April 2008 - 1,110 Sales No. E.08.II.F.13 is acknowledged. The ESCAP Publications Office would appreciate receiving a copy of any publication that uses this publication as a source. Copyright©United Nations 2008 Mention of firm names and commercial products does not imply endorsement of the ISBN: 978-92-1-120544-2 United Nations ST/ESCAP/2494 This paper is produced from 100% eucalyptus plantations without consuming the material from natural forest and using the elemental chlorine-free blenching process and using water based coating. Cover design by Ruban Tamrakar ENERGY SECURITY AND SUSTAINABLE DeVELOPMENT IN AsIA AND THE PACIFIC ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL COMMIssION FOR AsIA AND THE PACIFIC CONTENTS FOREWORD ....................................................................................................................xi ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ...............................................................................................xii ABBREVIATIONS ......................................................................................................... xiii EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ............................................................................................. xvii Rapd growth n energy consumpton .............................................................................xv Renewable energy and clmate change ........................................................................ xv The potental for trade ......................................................................................................... xv Investment and finance .........................................................................................................xx Innovaton and compettveness ........................................................................................xx Regonal and subregonal cooperaton ............................................................................xx CHAPTER 1 ENERGY AND SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT ................................................1 Structure of ths theme study .................................................................................................4 Energy securty and the Mllennum Development Goals ............................................5 Fuellng economc growth .......................................................................................................6 Energy and socal development............................................................................................11 Envronmental sustanablty................................................................................................ ..15 Clmate change........................................................................................................................... 19 CHAPTER 2 AVAILABLE ENERGY ResOURCes, SUPPLY AND DEMAND ........................ 25 Energy avalablty......................................................................................................................27 Energy producton ................................................................................................................... 37 Supply and consumpton ...................................................................................................... 52 Trade n energy .......................................................................................................................... 55 Total final consumpton ......................................................................................................... 62 Fnal energy mx......................................................................................................................... 64 Sectoral consumpton ............................................................................................................. 65 End-use energy efficency ..................................................................................................... 66 Conclusons ................................................................................................................................ 74 CHAPTER 3 FINANCING FOR ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT AND INVesTMENT NeeDS ............................................................................ 77 Methodology ............................................................................................................................. 80 Demand outlook—baselne scenaro ............................................................................... 81 Demand outlook—sustanable energy scenaro .......................................................... 86 Energy nfrastructure expanson—baselne scenaro ................................................. 89 Baselne scenaro nvestment needs ................................................................................. 93 Sustanable energy scenaro nvestment needs ............................................................ 99 Energy markets ........................................................................................................................103 Sources of finance for energy nfrastructure ................................................................104 Fnancal nsttutons .............................................................................................................107 Fnancng mechansms .........................................................................................................109 Fnancng channels ................................................................................................................110 Establshng a regonal captal nvestment fund .........................................................118 Concluson ................................................................................................................................123 CHAPTER 4 POLICIes AND INSTITUTIONAL MECHANISMS ......................................... 125 Natonal energy polcy .........................................................................................................128 Strategc ol reserves .............................................................................................................129 Polces for mprovng energy efficency ........................................................................130 Polces to support renewable energy ............................................................................134 The Insttutonal settng........................................................................................................139 Internatonal, regonal and subregonal polces ........................................................140 Regonal organzatons .........................................................................................................145 Subregonal organzatons ..................................................................................................147 Concluson ................................................................................................................................148 CHAPTER 5 ENERGY TRADE AND TRANSBOUNDARY ENERGY COOPERATION ........ 149 Energy tradng regmes ........................................................................................................154 A trans-Asan energy system ..............................................................................................155 South-South cooperaton ....................................................................................................159 Concluson ................................................................................................................................162 CHAPTER 6 INNOVATION AND COMPETITIVENess ...................................................... 163 Clean energy technologes .................................................................................................165
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