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I from the CENTRALLY PLANNED ECONOMY to CAPITALIST

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I from the CENTRALLY PLANNED ECONOMY to CAPITALIST FROM THE CENTRALLY PLANNED ECONOMY TO CAPITALIST GLOBALISATION: HOW ECONOMISTS UNDERESTIMATED THE GROWTH OF THE WORLD MARKET WILLIAM RICHARD JEFFERIES A thesis submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements of the Manchester Metropolitan University for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy Department of Marketing the Manchester Metropolitan University 2013 i The copyright of this thesis belongs to the author under the terms of the Copyright Act 1987 as qualified by Regulation 4 (1) of the Multimedia University Intellectual Property Regulations. Due acknowledgement shall always be made of the use of any material contained in, or derived from, this thesis. © William Jefferies, 2013 All rights reserved. ii DECLARATION I hereby declare that the work has been done by myself and no portion of the work contained in this Thesis has been submitted in support of any application for any other degree or qualification on this or any other university or institution of learning. _______________ William Jefferies iii ACKNOWLEDGMENT. Thanks to Tony Hines and Paul Brook for their support, encouragement and criticism and Viv Davies and Hillel Fridman for their helpful comments throughout. iv DEDICATION. To my brother Rob. v TABLE OF CONTENTS COPYRIGHT PAGE. ii DECLARATION . iii ACKNOWLEDGEMENT . iv DEDICATION . v TABLE OF CONTENTS. viii LIST OF TABLES. ix LIST OF FIGURES. x GLOSSARY xi ABSTRACT 1 CHAP TER 1: Introduction. 3 1 .1 Opening 3 1.2 Chapter 2 4 1.3 Chapter 3 4 1.4 Chapter 4 10 1.5 Chapter 5 12 1.6 Chapter 6 13 1.7 Chapter 7 17 CHAPTER 2: Marxist Method. 18 2.1 Marx’s materialism and the dialectical method 18 2.2 Abstraction and the Labour Theory of Value 24 2.3 The nature of value 31 2.4 Transformation problem 37 2.5 National accounting and statistics 61 CHAPTER 3: The Measurement of Soviet Economic Growth. 66 3.1 Five year plans 67 3.2 Concrete and abstract labour 71 vi 3.3 The Balance of 1923/4 76 3.4 The Soviet value debate 79 3.5 The Materialy 82 3.6 Colin Clark’s Critique of Russian Statistics 86 3.7 Leontief’s Russian National Income and Defense Expenditures 92 3.8 Julius Wyler’s National Income of Soviet Russia 94 3.9 Alexander Gerschenkron 96 3.1 Naum Jasny 100 3.11 Kaplan, Hodgman and Shimkin 105 3.12 Abram Bergson 107 3.13 G. Warren Nutter 119 3.14 Conclusion 122 CHAPTER 4: From Capitalism and Back Again. 125 4.1 The CMEA, MPS and CIA 125 4.2 The USSR from stagnation to collapse 128 4.3 The Transition in Central and Eastern Europe 132 4.4 World Bank Guide to the Historically Planned Economies (HPEs) 135 4.5 Productive and unproductive labour and the market boundary 141 4.6 The World Bank and Goskomstat 152 4.7 IMF National Accounts in the Transition Countries 155 4.8 China to the plan and back again 161 4.9 Western estimates 166 4.10 China measures of transition 167 4.11 Conclusion 176 CHAPTER 5: Empirical Evidence. 179 5.1 National Income 179 5.2 Official statistics 183 5.3 The Transition in CEE and CIS 185 5.4 The Transition in China 186 5.5 Electricity 189 5.6 Aluminium 194 5.7 Hydraulic Cement 197 5.8 Steel 200 5.9 Automobiles 203 5.1 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) – Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) 205 5.11 China and Vietnam 207 5.12 CEE and CIS 209 5.13 Conclusion 215 vii CHAPTER 6: After the fall. 218 6.1 Bergson and the CIA reassessed 218 6.2 State capitalism 227 6.3 Marxism and globalisation 250 CHAPTER 7: Conclusion 282 REFERENCES . 299 viii LIST OF TABLES. Table 3.1 Real Income per head of population at 1934 Sterling Prices 90 Table 3.2 Production of the most important commodities per capita of the 94 population in the USSR and USA Table 3.3 National income or product of the Soviet Union, 1928-40 at market 96 prices in terms of U.S. Prices in 1940 Table 3.4 Investments in new Machinery, USSR, 1928-55, Alternative weights 114 (1937 = 100) Table 3.5 Gross National Product by Use, USSR, 1928-55, in 1937 Rouble 115 Prices and Factor Cost (1937=100) Table 3.6 GNP in 1937 prices 116 Table 4.1 Russian Federation: Shares in Manufacturing Ownership, Workforce 132 and Output, 1992, 1995 and 1998, in percentages Table 4.2 “Real” GDP growth in Central and Eastern Europe (% change) 133 Table 4.3 EBRD Transition Indicators for Russia and Poland selected years 136 Table 5.1 Private sector proportion of GDP % in CEE and CIS 186 Table 5.2 The proportion of Chinese output at market prices by sector 187 Table 5.3 CIS, CEE, Chinese and Vietnamese total, capitalist and centrally 192 planned electricity production 1990-2010 Table 5.4 World Electricity Production 1990-2010 193 Table 5.5 Total, capitalist and centrally planned electricity production decade 194 growth Table 5.6 CIS, CEE, Chinese and Vietnamese total, capitalist and centrally 195 planned aluminium production 1990-2010 Table 5.7 World Aluminium Production 1990-2010 196 Table 5.8 Total, capitalist and centrally planned aluminium production decade 197 growth Table 5.9 CIS, CEE, Chinese and Vietnamese total, capitalist and centrally 198 planned hydraulic cement production 1990-2010 Table 5.10 World hydraulic cement production 1989-2010 199 Table 5.11 Total, capitalist and centrally planned hydraulic cement production 200 decade growth Table 5.12 CIS, CEE, Chinese and Vietnamese total, capitalist and centrally 201 planned steel production 1990-2010 Table 5.13 World steel production 1989-2010 202 Table 5.14 World steel production decade growth 203 Table 5.15 CIS, CEE, Chinese total, capitalist and centrally planned steel 203 production 1991-2010 Table 5.16 World automobile production 1991-2010 204 Table 5.17 World automobile production decade growth 205 Table 5.18 China and Vietnam during the transition; total, centrally planned and 208 capitalist output 1978-2001 Table 5.19 The CEE and CIS during the transition, total, centrally planned and 210 capitalist production 1989-2010 Table 5.20 World capitalist transition 1978-2010 214 ix Table 5.21 World employment 1978-2010 215 Table 6.1 USSR and G7, 1980s, proportionate break down of exports and 244 imports percentage Table 6.2 Manufactured goods tariffs, effectively applied rate, simple average 256 of simple averages Table 6.3 G7 percent of employment in industry and services 260 Table 6.4 German per capita GDP, Unemployment and Manufacturing Unit 263 Labour Costs 1991-1998 LIST OF FIGURES. Figure 5.1 China and Vietnam transition to capitalism 209 Figure 5.2 Capitalist transition CEE & CIS 211 Figure 5.3 Capitalist transition in the CEE, CIS and China and Vietnam 212 Figure 6.1 World trade US current dollars and prices millions 257 Figure 6.2 CPE and transition economies imports and exports % world 1948-2011 258 Figure 6.3 Transition economies FDI Inward and Outward flows % world 1990- 259 2011 Figure 6.4 US rate of profit 1929-2012 267 x GLOSSARY. AFC - Adjusted Factor Cost BP - British Petroleum CCA - Capital Consumption Allowance CCP - Chinese Communist Party CEE - Central and Eastern Europe CES - Conference of European Statisticians CIA - Central Intelligence Agency CIS - Commonwealth of Independent States CMEA - Comecon (the Council for Mutual Economic Assistance) CPE - Centrally Planned Economy CPSU - Communist Party Soviet Union EBRD - European Bank of Reconstruction and Development FDI – Foreign Direct Investment FSU - Former Soviet Union G7 - Group of Seven; the U.S., Japan, France, Germany, Italy, U.K. and Canada GDP - Gross Domestic Product GGDC - Groningen Growth and Development Centre GK - Geary Khamis GNP - Gross National Product HPE - Historical Planned Economies IBRD - International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank IMF - International Monetary Fund IVA - Inventory Valuation Adjustment JEC - Joint Economic Council MELT - Monetary Equivalent of Labour Time MIC - Military Industrial Complex MPS - Material Product System NBER - National Bureau of Economic Research NDP - Net Domestic Product NEP - New Economic Policy NMP - Net Material Product xi NNP - Net National Product OCC - Organic Composition of Capital OECD - Organisation of Economic Co-Operation and Development OICA - International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers OSS - Office of Strategic Services PPP - Purchasing Power Parity Project RAND - US Air Force Project Research and Development RoP - Rate of Profit SEZ - Special Economic Zone SNA - System of National Accounts SNIP - Abram Bergson’s The Real National Income of Soviet Russia Since 1928 SSB - Chinese State Statistical Bureau TMT - Thousand Metric Tons TSSI - Temporal Single System Interpretation TWH - Terawatt-hours UN - United Nations UNCTAD - United Nations Conference Trade and Development USGS - United States Geological Survey USSR - United Soviet Socialist Republics WSA - World Steel Association WTO - World Trade Organisation xii ABSTRACT The expansion of the world market in the 1990s was significantly accelerated by the transition of formerly centrally planned economies of the USSR, Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), China and Vietnam into capitalist ones. Prior to the introduction of the market in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) and CEE during the late 1980s and in China and Vietnam from 1978, there was no genuine market production in them, by definition. This transition transformed these economies from top to bottom and subordinated them to market prices. In the CIS and CEE the transition to capitalism was profoundly destructive with huge output falls exceeding even the destruction wrought following the Nazi invasion of the Soviet Union in 1941. The collapse of centrally planned production was measured as a very large fall in national income by all of the official statistical agencies.
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