Transport Evaluation for Waverley Borough Council's Core Strategy
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S Transport for Surrey TRANSPORT EVALUATION FOR WAVERLEY BOROUGH COUNCIL'S CORE STRATEGY 2026 Transport Assessment Report Project Title: Transport Evaluation for Waverley Borough Council's Core Strategy Document Title: 2026 Transport Assessment Report Client Reference: Date: 12 April 2010 Prepared By: Print Emma Brundle Sign Authorised By: Print Steve Howard Sign Amendment List Iss. / Rev. Iss. / Rev Remove Insert Date Page Iss. / Rev. Page Iss. / Rev. Issue 3 08/04/10 Section 6 – AQMA’s Waverley’s Comments 0201SF10 07/08/02 Filename: S:\Project-current\3380\projects\Waverley\Reports\WaverleyLDFReportv2.doc Issue No. 01 Page 2 of 83 Document No. 3380\WBC\01 Transport Evaluation for Waverley Borough Council’s Core Strategy CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 4 1 INTRODUCTION 6 1.2 Objectives 6 1.3 Scope 6 1.4 Report Structure 7 2 MODEL DESCRIPTION 8 2.1 Context 8 2.2 Vehicle Types 8 2.3 Time Period 8 2.4 Assignment Method 8 2.5 Zoning System 8 3 TRIP RATE ESTIMATES FOR INDIVIDUAL SITES 11 3.1 Residential Planning Data 11 3.2 Commercial Planning Data 11 3.3 Scenarios 12 3.4 TRICS 13 3.5 TRICS Methodology 13 3.6 Commercial Developments 16 3.7 TEMPRO Methodology 16 3.8 Additional Trips per Zone 16 4 FORECAST MATRICES 24 4.1 Do-Minimum Forecast 24 4.2 2026 Do-Something Forecasts 24 4.3 Trunk Road Select Link Matrices 28 5 MODELLING RESULTS AD ANALYSES 38 5.1 Summary Statistics 38 5.2 Largest Increases in Additional Trips 41 5.3 Traffic Impacts 43 5.4 Borough Bandwidth Plots 47 6 AIR QUALITY MANAGEMENT AREAS (AQMA) 68 6.1 Overview of Areas 68 6.2 AQMA Summary Statistics 68 7 CONCLUSIONS 73 7.1 Summary 73 7.2 Traffic Impacts of Development 73 Issue No. 01 Page 3 of 83 Document No. 3380\WBC\01 Transport Evaluation for Waverley Borough Council’s Core Strategy EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Surrey County Council (SCC) is assisting Waverley Borough Council (WBC) with the development of their Local Development Framework (LDF). WBC need to consider the impact that their proposed development strategy will have on the highway network within the borough. The key objective of this evaluation is to provide an assessment of the transport impact from future development and the sensitivity of the highway network with regard to traffic distribution from the proposed development. The model used for the evaluation was SCC’s County Model (SINTRAM). SINTRAM is a strategic traffic model that covers the key road network in Surrey. The county model makes use of three vehicle types: Cars, Light Good Vehicles (LGVs) and Heavy Goods Vehicles (HGVs) and at present only assesses the AM peak hour (0800 – 0900). The base year of the model is 2005 and the future forecast year is 2026. WBC provided SCC with planning data that is proposed to occur in the borough between 2005 and 2026. The data was provided in accordance with the models zoning system and consisted of residential data only. Commercial forecasts were obtained from TEMPRO. From this data two future year scenarios were created, Scenario A and Scenario B. 2026 Scenario A consisted only of developments that already have been approved by planning permission, whereas 2026 Scenario B consisted of all developments irrespective of whether they have received planning permission or not. The amount of trips projected to be generated from all developments stated in WBC’s planning data was calculated using the Trip Rate Information and Computer System (TRICS) database. These projections of trip generation along with TEMPROs growth factors for commercial developments were imported into the future 2026 matrices of the test scenarios to produce future matrices and projections of traffic flows. In addition to the two test scenarios (Scenario A and Scenario B), two other reference scenarios were incorporated. Firstly a 2005 Base year scenario was used to reflect the road network at the present time. Secondly a 2026 Do-Minimum scenario was created to act as a reference case to the two test scenarios. The 2026 Do-Minimum scenario retains the Waverley borough trips at 2005 base year levels but all other external trips grow at rates as forecast by the DfT’s TEMPRO database. Two networks were used in the modelling process, a 2005 and 2026 network. The 2005 network reflects the road network in its current state. The 2026 network is the same as the 2005 but includes the Highways Agency’s Hindhead Improvement Scheme. This is because the Hindhead scheme is programmed to open to traffic in 2011, and inclusion of this scheme in the assessment will produce a more robust and representative analysis of future traffic conditions. The total number of estimated additional departures in the Borough of Waverley for Scenario A is 720 and 218 arrivals. Whilst in Scenario B, the estimated total number of additional departures is 1,686 and 2,582 additional arrivals. The model predicts that total non-trunk traffic flow within Waverley during the AM peak hour would increase by approximately 10,100vkm (3.2%) in 2026 Scenario A when Issue No. 01 Page 4 of 83 Document No. 3380\WBC\01 Transport Evaluation for Waverley Borough Council’s Core Strategy compared to the 2026 Do-Minimum. In 2026 Scenario B, traffic flow would increase by approximately 36,400 (11%) when compared with 2026 Scenario A. The model predicts that total trunk road traffic flow generated within Waverley during the AM peak hour would increase by 1,300vkm (3.9%) in 2026 Scenario A when compared to the 2026 Do-Minimum. In 2026 Scenario B, trunk road traffic flow would increase by approximately 3,100 (9%) when compared to 2026 Scenario A. The main areas in the Borough of Waverley which are most affected by the additional trips generated from the proposed developments are the four main urban settlements: Farnham, Godalming, Cranleigh and Haslemere. Specifically Farnham, the A31 corridor, between the Runfold Junction and Hickleys Corner, could potentially be impacted by a general increase in link and junction delay. With regard to the three AQMA sites within Waverley, all sites could potentially be impacted by the new trips generated from the forecast planning data. None of the these traffic impacts are significant but it was found that 2026 Scenario B produced the largest impacts when compared to 2026 Scenario A. Scenario B is the scenario that generates the largest amount of additional trips and presents the largest traffic impacts within the context of this evaluation. A general trend from the outputs is that Scenario B has the greatest impacts on the local traffic flows in Waverley, when compared to 2026 Scenario A. However, none of the impacts produced from 2026 Scenario B are of a significant amount to cause disruption or lead to major improvement measures on the road network in the Borough of Waverley. Issue No. 01 Page 5 of 83 Document No. 3380\WBC\01 Transport Evaluation for Waverley Borough Council’s Core Strategy 1 INTRODUCTION 1.1.1 Waverley Borough Council (WBC) is in the process of developing their Local Development Framework (LDF). As part of the LDF and to inform the Core Strategy, WBC need to present and consult on their preferred options for development in the borough. One of the aspects that need to be considered when developing the preferred options is the impact that the development strategy will have on movement and transport. In February 2009, WBC commissioned Surrey County Council’s (SCC) Transport Studies Team to evaluate the transport implications for future developments identified in their draft Core Strategy. 1.1.2 SCC is working in partnership with WBC, assisting with the development of their LDF. This assistance includes the provision of technical expertise to ensure that the resulting LDF will pass all the “test of soundness” and meet SCC policies and objectives. 1.1.3 The main aims of the evaluation are to: • Determine the sensitivity of the highway network to the distribution of development within the borough. • Provide a general assessment of the transport impact from future development within Waverley for the forecast year of 2026. 1.1.4 This report considers the impacts of the LDF between 2005 and 2026. The evaluation will also focus upon identified Air Quality Management Areas (AQMA) in Waverley (see Section 6). 1.2 Objectives 1.2.1 The main objectives of the evaluation were to: • Identify the locations and estimates of additional commercial and residential development in the borough; • Calculate the distribution of vehicle trips resulting from the additional development; • Prepare a 2026 traffic forecast based on these developments; • Compare the resulting 2026 traffic forecasts for each development scenario against a suitable reference; • Report the main traffic impacts and conclusions arising. 1.3 Scope 1.3.1 The study will use the existing County Model (SINTRAM). This model is currently an AM peak hour model, and study will be based upon this time period. The model base year is 2005, and the future forecast year is 2026. 1.3.2 For comparison purposes a 2026 Do-Minimum scenario was developed as a reference. This is described later in paragraph 4.1.3. Two networks were used in the modelling process: a 2005 network and 2026 network. The 2005 base network replicates the road network in its current state, whereas the 2026 network is the Issue No. 01 Page 6 of 83 Document No. 3380\WBC\01 Transport Evaluation for Waverley Borough Council’s Core Strategy same as 2005 but includes the Highways Agency’s Hindhead Improvement Scheme, which is currently under construction. There are no other committed highway schemes in the area so the Hindhead Scheme is the only highway alteration involved in the forecasting.