Houston Community College School of Continuing Education Professional Exam Prep, Quarter I 2018

BMGT 2006 – CRN 11408 Saturdays 10/20/2018 ‐ 12/08/2018; 9:00 am‐2:00 pm Instructor: Nequietha “Shaun” Watson

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Project Schedule Management

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1 AGENDA • Introduction • Overview of Project Time Management • Plan Schedule Management • Define Activities • Sequence Activities • Estimate Activity Resources • Estimate Activity Durations • Develop Schedule • Control Schedule • Key Takeaways

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Overview of Project Schedule Management

To successfully answer exam questions within the Project Schedule Management Knowledge Area, you must have a good understanding of these concepts:

 The basic definitions of the tools of project management, such as Gantt charts, milestone charts, and project schedule network diagrams  The tool & techniques to manually calculate resource and activity durations  The process to manually calculate the critical path, forward pass, backward pass and slack  Schedule compression techniques: crashing and fast tracking

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2 Project Schedule Management involves the following steps: Deciding which activities need to be done to complete the project

Determining the resources required

Estimating the time it will take to complete each activity

Creating a schedule

Monitoring and controlling progress against the schedule baseline

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Plan Schedule Management

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3 Plan Schedule Management is...... the process of establishing the policies, procedures and documentation for planning, developing, managing, executing, and controlling the project schedule. (PMBOK, p. 179) Using the schedule management plan, the project manager and team can then: • Decompose work packages into activities and milestones • Establish the network diagram • Determine what resources are needed for the project • Determine the durations for the activities • Deal with schedule changes and updates • Determine the units of measure (time and quantity that will be used for each resource) • Control thresholds for monitoring schedule performance • Determine the level of accuracy that will be required for activity duration estimates

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Define Activities

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4 Define Activities is ...... the process of identifying and documenting the specific actions to be performed to produce the project deliverables. (PMBOK, p. 183) • Scope baseline provides details of the planned scope for the project, including the Project Scope Statement, WBS, and the WBS Dictionary. • Rolling wave planning is an iterative techniques used when all the details of the work are not yet known. • Expert judgment is used to define activities and milestones at the appropriate degree of detail. • Bottom‐up estimating is when you break a project into its component pieces of work and then estimate the resources needed for each of the pieces. Then, add up all of the estimates to get a total. (Most accurate) • The activity list describes what needs to be done. It is a component of the schedule, but NOT of the WBS. • A milestone list defines the milestones, significant events or points in the project, to be achieved during the project.

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Sequence Activities

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5 Sequence Activities is . . .

. . . the process of identifying and documenting relationships among the project activities (i.e. defining the logical sequence of work to obtain the greatest efficiency, given all project constraints). (PMBOK, P. 187) Sequence Activities process concentrates on converting the project activities from a list to a diagram to act as a first step to publish the schedule baseline.

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Sequence Activities Tools: Network Diagrams There are two ways to draw a network diagram: AON or AOA. The AOA diagram is rarely used.

A AON (activity-on-node) Start PDM (precedence B diagramming method)

A AOA (activity-on-arrow) Start ADM (arrow diagramming method) B

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6 Activity-on-Node Diagramming Method (AON) The most commonly used technique, AON, is also called precedence diagramming method (PDM). PDM is used in to determine the critical path. With this technique, the boxes represent the nodes, with the activities shown on the nodes. The arrows show the task dependencies. A C D

Start Finish

B E

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The PDM uses four types of dependencies: Finish to Start (FS) The second activity cannot be started until the first activity completes. This type of dependency is the most commonly used dependency in the diagramming techniques. Most common. Hardware Install arrives hardware Finish-to-start Finish to Finish (FF) The second activity cannot be finished until the first activity finishes. In other words, both activities should finish simultaneously. Complete Obtain final regression test sign-off

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7 Start to Start (SS) The second activity cannot be started until the first activity starts. Both activities should start simultaneously.

Pour Concrete Level Concrete

Start-to-start Start to Finish (SF) The second activity cannot be finished until the first activity starts. Rarely used. Activate Remove new router old router

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Logical Relationships – Gantt Chart This Gantt Chart view shows the four dependency relationships: Finish‐to‐ Start (FS), Finish‐to‐Finish (FF), Start‐to‐Start (SS) and Start‐to‐Finish (SF). In MS Project, FS is the default dependency while SF is rarely used when scheduling from a start date. Predecessor is the first activity in the relationship while successor is the second activity linked in the relationship.

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8 Graphical Evaluation Review Technique (GERT) GERT is a diagramming technique that uses feedback loops or multiple passes through a diagram as iterations are completed. A practical example is software testing. When you start, you assume that you will make it through the routine on the first pass. But reality is that you will probably have to make multiple passes through the routine until testing is complete.

Pass Code Test Results Release to Customer

Fail

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Dependencies When you create a project schedule, you must consider dependencies for the sequencing. Dependencies can be flexible or inflexible.  Mandatory (Hard Logic – Inflexible: MSO, MFO) A constraint must be completed [legally or contractually] before subsequent items can start. Ex. You must have Windows 8 operating installed before installing MS Office 2013.  Discretionary (Soft Logic – Flexible: ASAP, ALAP) A constraint that should be completed but is not absolutely required to be completed before subsequent activities can start. Ex. You do not absolutely have to finish system testing before beginning user testing.  Internal A mandatory or discretionary constraint that originates from within the project or company. Ex. You have to wait for the power supply to complete the testing of the computer you are designing.  External A mandatory or discretionary constraint that originates from an entity external to the project team or organization. Ex. The city inspector must approve any construction before issuing a certificate of occupancy so the tenant can move in.

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9 Leads and Lags Lead Lead is the acceleration of a successor activity. In other words, the second activity can begin (and be conducted in parallel) as the first activity. Lead is only found in activities with finish‐to‐start relationships: A must finish before B can start. In order to leverage a lead, which will compress the total combined duration of both activities, the dependency must be discretionary, meaning that there is no physical limitation on completing A before B begins.

Lag Lag is the delay of a successor activity and represents time that must pass before the second activity can begin. There are no resources associated with a lag. Lag may be found in activities with all relationship types: finish‐to‐start, start‐ to‐start, finish‐to‐finish, and start‐to‐finish.

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Summary Sequence Activities is the process of identifying and documenting relationships among the project activities. • The precedence diagramming method (PDM) is the technique commonly used by project scheduling software. It depicts activities in graphic rectangles connected by arrows to indicate the performance sequence. Also called activity‐on‐node (AON). • Dependency determination defines the mandatory (hard logic), discretionary (soft logic), internal, and external dependencies that exist within the project. • Leads (‐) and lags (+) are adjusted so that the schedule aligns with the plan. • The network diagram is a schematic of project activities. This diagram gives you a picture of how the work of the project will flow. • AOA (Activity‐on‐Arrow) shows the activity on the arrow or line, and the circle or box connects the activities. It is much older than the AON method and is rarely used. • GERT is a diagramming technique that uses feedback loops or multiple passes through a diagram as iterations are completed.

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10 Estimate Activity Durations

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Estimate Activity Durations is ...... the process of estimating the number of work periods needed to complete individual activities with estimated resources. (PMBOK, p.195) Estimates are the first pieces entered to build your schedule. • Duration is length of time (days) • Work is the amount of effort (hours) • Units is number of resources (people) When making a decision about which kind of estimate to enter—work or duration—you will want to consider what information is available or what information is easier to generate. If it is easier to determine that a task will take 20 hours of work to complete, then estimate work. If it is easier to determine that a task will take 4 days, then estimate duration. NOTE: The default project calendar in MS Project has a duration of one day equaling 8 hours, one week equals 5 days, and one month equal to 4 weeks based on Monday–Friday work week.

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11 Work versus Duration The Estimate Activity Durations process provides estimates of activity duration. The duration of a task is not the same as work effort.

Duration

Duration refers to the number of work periods that it will take to complete the activity. If the work effort can be divided among resources, the duration might be less than the work effort. For example, if testing will take Richard 40 hours of work effort and LaKesha works with Richard to complete the testing, the duration is 20 hours or 2.5 days (based on an 8 hour work day). Think of duration in terms of days (8 hours).

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Tools and Techniques • Expert Judgment Expert judgment is an excellent source for estimating activity durations and for determining which estimating technique(s) is/are best to use. • Analogous Estimating Analogous estimating, also called “top‐down” estimating, is an estimating technique that requires expert judgment (or historical information) to arrive at a high‐level estimate. • Parametric Estimating Parametric estimation is an estimating technique that uses a quantitative approach based on historical data. The high‐level estimate considers the quantity of work and the productivity rate per unit of work. For example, if 50 switches must be installed and configured, and it takes 2 hours to install and configure each one switch, then the estimate for this work is 100 hours.

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12 • Three‐Point Estimating Three‐point estimating is a mathematical function that uses an average to estimate activity durations based on the pessimistic, optimistic, and realistic (most likely) estimates. This estimate differs from a PERT estimate in that a weighted average is not applied. • Group Decision‐Making Techniques Group decision‐making techniques, such as brainstorming and Delphi, are assessment processes that result in a group selecting expected outcomes and expressing that outcome as a future actions resolution. • Reserve Analysis Reserve analysis is used when a team wants to plan for known unknowns (contingency reserves). The additional time added (buffer) to the duration estimates may be based on a percentage or a fixed period of time or it may be determined using a quantitative method, such as the Monte Carlo simulation.

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Three-Point Estimating : Triangular Distribution With three‐point estimates, rather than obtaining one number as an estimate from the expert or team member, you get three estimates for the same activity. The formula for triangular distribution is (O + ML + P)/3. The three estimates are: An optimistic duration estimate is how long an activity will take if positive conditions advance its completion date. This estimate reflects Optimistic how long the activity takes if conditions are more favorable than usual for similar activities.

The most likely duration is the probable length of time for an activity. It is the calculated duration of an activity, excluding the effects of Most likely extraordinary positive or negative influences.

A pessimistic duration estimate is the length of time needed for an activity if foreseeable negative conditions delay an activity. An Pessimistic example of a foreseeable negative condition is the unavailability of workers or materials.

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13 Beta Distribution [(Weighted Average) or (PERT)] The use of beta distribution (a weighted average) gives stronger consideration to the most likely estimate. Derived from the Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT), this technique uses a formula to create a weighted average for the work to be done. The formula for beta distribution is (O + 4ML + P)/6. An optimistic duration estimate is how long an activity will take if positive conditions advance its completion date. This estimate reflects Optimistic how long the activity takes if conditions are more favorable than usual for similar activities.

The most likely duration is the probable length of time for an activity. It is the calculated duration of an activity, excluding the effects of 4 x Most likely extraordinary positive or negative influences.

A pessimistic duration estimate is the length of time needed for an activity if foreseeable negative conditions delay an activity. An Pessimistic example of a foreseeable negative condition is the unavailability of workers or materials.

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How Is Estimating Done? You may be asked to perform calculations using the formulas or to analyze information to determine how best to deal with a situation.  Optimistic estimate – best‐case scenario  Most Likely (Expected) – most likely to occur  Pessimistic estimate – worst‐case scenario

Three‐Point Estimate PERT Estimate Standard Deviation (Triangular Distribution) (Beta Distribution) (Range of the Estimate) P + ML + O P + 4ML + O P - O 3 6 6

EXAM TIP: You must MEMORIZE these formulas and remember that they can be used for both time and cost estimates.

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14 Estimated Durations Using Beta (PERT) CLASS ACTIVITY: Use the Beta distribution (PERT) formula to calculate estimated durations for the following activities under the Review Current Infrastructure Summary Task in the Analysis Phase. [Optimistic + (4 x Expected) + Pessimistic] / 6

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Calculated Durations Using Beta (PERT)

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15 Summary Techniques you can use to estimate activity durations for a project includes expert judgment, analogous estimating, parametric estimating, three‐point estimates, group decision‐making techniques, and reserve analysis. The techniques that you use will depend on the project and the resources available to you.

When estimating activity durations, you can measure the time in hours, days, or weeks. However, most project management software, like MS Project, use hours to estimate and schedule activities.

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Estimate Activity Durations is the process of estimating the n umber of work periods needed to complete individual activities with estimated resources.

 Three-Point Estimating is a mathematical function that uses an average to estimate activity durations based on the pessimistic, optimistic, and realistic (most likely or expected) estimates. No weighted average is used unlike PERT estimate.  Group Decision Making Techniques, such as brainstorming and Delphi, are assessment processes that result in group selecting expected outcomes and expressing that outcome as a future actions resolution.  Reserve analysis is used when a team wants to plan for “known unknowns” (contingency reserves) and “unknown unknowns” (management reserves).  Activity duration estimates reveal how long the tasks will take, along with the supporting evidence of those estimates and any updates to the activity list.  Work effort refers the total number of person hours to complete a task.  Duration refers to the number of work periods (days) that it will take to complete an activity.  Parkinson’s Law, work expands to consume the time scheduled for its completion.

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16 Develop the Schedule

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Critical Path Method • The most common approach to calculating when a project may finish is by using the critical path method. It uses a “forward” and “backward” pass to reveal which activities are considered critical. • Activities on the critical path may not be delayed; otherwise the project end date will be delayed. The critical path is the path with the longest duration to completion (tasks are red in MS Project). • Activities not on the critical path have some float (also called slack) that allows some amount of delay without delaying the project end date (non‐critical tasks are blue in MS Project).

EXAM TIP: The critical path is used to determine which activities have no float. You can also use the critical path to determine the earliest date for when the project may be completed.

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17 Critical Path Method (CPM)

Calculates the longest time path (CP)  Calculates ES, EF, LS, LF  Determines minimum duration of project  Determines scheduling flexibility (amount of float)  Uses a single duration time estimate

The critical path is the longest path in time through the network diagram that determines the shortest time in which the project can be completed.

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Critical Path – Network Diagram View An option for graphically presenting the project schedule is a Network Diagram view. These diagrams, with activity date information, usually show both the project network logic, and project’s critical path schedule activities.

Nodes

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18 Critical Path – Gantt Chart View

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Critical Path If the task durations are as shown in this network diagram, what is the critical path?

534 = 12 A C D

Finish Start

B E

6 2 = 8

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19 534 = 12

A C D

Finish Start

B E = 11

6 2 = 8

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Critical Path: Forward Pass

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20 Forward Pass: ES + DU = EF The early start (ES) and early finish (EF) dates are calculated first by completing the forward pass. The ES of the first task is one. The EF for the first task is its ES, plus the duration, minus one. The ES of the next task(s) will be the EF for the previous activity, plus one. So, if Task A finishes on day 3, Task B and Task C can begin on? 534 Early Early start finish B D F 4 0 3 3 G A 6 2 C E

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Forward Pass: ES + DU = EF Note that to facilitate schedule calculations, an “end of day” notation is used for both the Early Start and the Late Start values.

3 538 8124 12 15 Early Early start finish B D F 4 0 3 3 15 19 G A 3 6 9 12 2 14 C E

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21 Critical Path: Backward Pass

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Backward Pass: LF - DU = LS As the name implies, this calculation step starts at the last activity in the schedule and proceeds backward through the schedule until the Late Start value is computed for the schedule's beginning activity.

3 538 8124 12 15 Early Early start finish B D F 4 0 3 3 15 19 G A 3 6 9 12 2 14 15 19 C E

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22 Backward Pass: LF - DU = LS

3 538 8124 12 15 Early Early start finish B D F 4 0 3 3 15 19 3 8 8 12 12 15 G A 3 6 9 12 2 14 15 19 0 3 C E

7 13 13 15

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Critical Path: Float

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23 Float or Slack Float, or slack is the amount of time an activity can be delayed without postponing the project’s completion. Technically, there are three types of float: Free float ‐‐ total time a single activity (or task) can be delayed without affecting the early start of any successor activities. Total float (Slack) ‐‐ total time an activity (or task) can be delayed without affecting project completion. Project float ‐‐ total time the project can be delayed without passing the customer‐expected completion date. Slack calculations: LS – ES LF – EF Early values are calculated on the forward pass.

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Calculating Float: LS - ES or LF - EF • Task C has 4 days of float. • Task E has 1 day of float. • Tasks A, B, D, F, and Task G are on the critical path. Critical path activities have 0 float.

3 538 8124 12 15 Early Early start finish B D F 4 0 3 3 15 19 3 8 8 12 12 15 G A 3 6 9 12 2 14 15 19 0 3 C E

7 4 13 13 1 15

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24 Tools & Techniques: Resource Optimization

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Resource Leveling

Resource Leveling: Resource Leveling is a resource optimization technique in which the Project Manager adjusts the start dates and finish dates of different activities in order to balance the demand for resources vs available supply. • Resource Leveling is always carried out first • Leveling resolves resource conflicts or over‐allocations by delaying or splitting tasks (Consequently, the critical path of the project schedule may change.) • e.g. Under normal situation, it is generally considered the man hour for each team member is 45 hours per week, if more than 45 hours’ work is assigned to a member in a particular week (which is not practical nor recommended by PMI), the activities must be adjusted by resource leveling and trimmed down to 45 hours — i.e. it takes more days to complete the activities than originally planned

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25 Resource Smoothing

Resource Smoothing: Resource Smoothing is a resource optimization technique in which the Project Manager adjusts the timing of different activities so that the requirement for resources does not exceed a certain pre‐defined limit. • The pre‐defined limit may be statutory or a company policy, e.g. no more than 38 hours’ work in a week • After Resource Leveling, Resource Smoothing is used to ensure the demand for a particular resource is more balanced over time — i.e. if the original plan requires the resources to work 45 hours during the first 3 weeks but only 20 hours for the next 2 weeks, resource smoothing will try to “smooth” the hours per week to around 35 for the 5 weeks of the project duration • While carrying out resource smoothing, care has to be taken to balance between the desire pre‐defined limit and the overall duration of the project/activities. In this regards, the desired pre‐defined limits may not always be possible.

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The end goal for the Resource Optimization Techniques:

• If it is for meeting resource constraints (e.g. statutory requirements, resource availability), Resource Leveling is employed. Resource Leveling is a necessary as the original plan is not practical and feasible. • If it is for better utilization of resources or achieving the desired level of efforts (e.g. 38 hours per week to allow for some buffers of resources), Resource Smoothing is employed. Resource Smoothing is preferred but not absolutely necessary. • Resource leveling is always applied first before applying resource smoothing.

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26 Schedule Compression: Crashing & Fast Tracking

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Schedule Compression Schedule compression techniques such as crashing and fast tracking are utilized to adjust the schedule so that it aligns with the plan.

Crashing

Fast tracking

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27 Crashing

Crashing is reducing the critical path through application of resources. TIP: Only crash tasks on the critical path. These Adding resources to tasks impact the project critical path activities finish date. Non-critical tasks have float so adding Eliminating activities additional resources will not shorten project finish date. Changing the resources

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Fast Tracking Fast tracking reduces the overall project duration by using lead time or start‐to‐start (SS) to overlap logical predecessor‐successor relationships. Work (hours) and duration (days) can remain fixed.

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28 Outputs: Project Schedule The project calendar is calendar‐based and will at least include planned start and expected finish dates and resource assignments. Once approved, this project schedule becomes the schedule baseline, and it is the basis for measuring future performance against plan.

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Milestones Milestones identify the completion of a set of activities. Milestones have zero duration and are an effective way to measure progress during the project. Milestones are indicated with a black diamond shape.

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29 Milestone Reports

Reports are used for a number of purposes and they are targeted at various project stakeholders. Depending on the intended audience and what information you need to show, you can usually find a predefined basic report to address your target audience with the required information.

A Milestone Report shows high-level project information and shows the milestone tasks in a project schedule. Typically, the project sponsor and senior leadership will want to see the milestone report.

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Summary Develop Schedule is the process of analyzing activity sequences, durations, resource requirements, and schedule constraints to create the project schedule model. Slack (float) is the amount of time that an activity can slip or be delayed without delaying the finish date of the project. Free slack involves determining the latest that an activity can start without delaying the activities that follow it. Total slack is the latest an activity can start without delaying the project finish date. Project slack is the amount of time something can be delayed without delaying the published finish date. Critical path is the longest path on the project network diagram. It has no slack. Crashing puts more people on the critical path activities. Fast tracking involves starting sequential activities simultaneously. Resource leveling is the process of adjusting the over‐allocation to create a level usage of the resources.

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30 Control Schedule

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Key Points: Control Schedule Control Schedule is the process of monitoring the status of project activities to update project progress and manage changes to the schedule baseline to achieve the plan. (PMBOK, p. 222) • Control Schedule is concerned with: • Determining the current status of the project schedule, • Influencing the factors that create schedule changes, • Determining if the project schedule has changed, and • Managing the actual changes as they occur • Schedule forecasting may be utilized. They are estimates or predictions of conditions and events in the project’s future based on information and knowledge available at the time of the forecast. • Change requests are processed for review and disposition through the Perform Integrated Change Control process.

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31 WRAP‐UP: Knowledge Review •Re‐cap of topics covered

•Questions?

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