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Choice-Based Secondary School Admissions in England: Social Stratification and the Distribution of Educational Outcomes

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Choice-Based Secondary School Admissions in England: Social Stratification and the Distribution of Educational Outcomes View metadata, citation and similar papers at core.ac.uk brought to you by CORE provided by UCL Discovery Choice-Based Secondary School Admissions in England: Social Stratification and the Distribution of Educational Outcomes Rebecca Frances Allen Institute of Education, University of London PhD Thesis November 2008 I hereby declare that, except where explicit attribution is made, the work presented in this thesis is entirely my own. Word count (exclusive of appendices, list of references and bibliography): 73,205 words Abstract This thesis uses the cohort of 2005 school-leavers in the National Pupil Database to present an economic analysis of the effects of secondary school admissions in England on pupil sorting and achievement. The first part of the thesis exploits the availability of pupil postcodes to examine the impact of current school admissions arrangements on residential and school stratifica- tion. It produces data from a thought experiment whereby pupils currently in schools are reallocated to a new school based strictly on proximity to school. Through this simulation the role of the housing market in producing socially stratified schooling can be identified. A survey of school admissions policies is used to show that religious (and to a lesser extent Foundation) schools have intakes that are significantly more advan- taged than their local neighbourhood, and that they achieve these intakes through the use of explicit potentially selective admissions criteria. The second part of the thesis adds to evidence on whether policies intended to increase parental choice raise pupil achievement via competition between schools. Quantitative evidence on school competition in England is evaluated alongside the existing interna- tional literature. A regression discontinuity design is employed to examine the legacy effects of the Grant-Maintained schools policy on area-wide educational outcomes at age 16. Pupil fixed-effects test score growth models and historical instrumental vari- ables are used to identify the causal impact of religious schools on their neighbouring schools. This econometric analysis fails to lend support to claims that encouraging schools to compete for pupils is a route to improving standards. The thesis concludes that the current English secondary school arrangements have resulted in a system that is stratified and inequitable, without measurable efficiency gains induced by competition between schools for pupils. 1 Acknowledgements I wish to acknowledge the Economic and Social Research Council for financial support throughout my PhD. Thanks are also due to the Department for Children, Schools and Families for facilitating use of the National Pupil Database and Anne West at the Department of Social Policy, LSE, for providing access to her survey of school admissions policies. I have been fortunate to work with many academics within and beyond the Institute of Education over the course of writing this thesis, and my discussions with them have added greatly to my ideas. Early discussions with Rosalind Levaˇci´cabout market reforms in education inspired me to pursue this research and I also thank her for reading a final draft of this thesis. Anne West has been very kind to me, particularly over my final year of study, and it would not have been possible to write Chapter 5 without her ideas and data. Simon Burgess, Frank Windmeijer and Harvey Goldstein have provided stimulating and on- going collaborations in the measurement of segregation that have influenced methods used in Chapter 4. Rob French, Denise Hawkes, Ruth Lupton, and Jenny Neuburger all read chapters at various stages of development, and I am grateful for their com- ments. Graham Hobbs has been the perfect academic friend who is prepared to talk about school choice for hours each week, gently pointing out flaws in my thinking and analysis. Special thanks are due to my supervisor, Anna Vignoles, who has influenced the devel- opment of this entire thesis, and has been a source of both professional and personal support throughout the last four years. Finally, I would like to thank friends and family for their ongoing support and kindness. I could not have completed this thesis without them. 2 Table of Contents 1 Introduction 10 1.1 Outline of thesis . 12 1.2 Motivation for theoretical approach . 13 1.3 Motivation for a quantitative approach . 15 1.4 Policy background . 17 1.4.1 1944 Education Act . 17 1.4.2 Comprehensive schooling reform . 18 1.4.3 Conservative government reforms { 1979 to 1997 . 19 1.4.4 Labour government reforms { 1997 onwards . 21 2 Sources of data 27 2.1 National Pupil Database . 27 2.1.1 Key Stage test data . 30 2.2 Indicators of pupil family background . 31 2.2.1 Free school meals eligibility . 32 2.2.2 Indices of Deprivation and ACORN housing types . 32 2.2.3 2001 Census of Population . 33 2.3 Annual Schools Census and Register of Educational Establishments . 34 2.4 Grant-Maintained Schools Database . 34 2.5 West 2001 school admissions survey . 35 2.6 Church attendance data . 36 2.6.1 1851 Census of Religious Worship for Great Britain . 36 2.6.2 1851 to 1961 survey of religious affiliation . 37 2.6.3 2005 English Church Census . 37 3 Models of parental choice of school 38 3.1 Post-structuralist models of parental choice . 40 3.1.1 Middle class advantage in school choice processes . 41 3.1.2 Middle class judgements of school quality . 42 3.1.3 The complexity and risk of choice for the middle class . 44 3.1.4 Working class values and school choice . 46 3 TABLE OF CONTENTS 4 3.2 Economic models of parental choice . 47 3.2.1 Income constraint . 48 3.2.2 Shape of the utility function . 49 3.2.3 Informational advantages . 50 3.3 General equilibrium models of location choice . 50 3.3.1 Modelling the household utility function . 53 3.3.2 Equilibrium outcomes . 54 3.4 Models that predict incomplete stratification . 55 3.4.1 Within a general equilibrium framework . 56 3.4.2 Limits to general equilibrium modelling . 59 3.4.3 Agent-based computational models of school choice . 62 3.5 Decision-making under school choice programs . 63 3.5.1 Introducing school choice to general equilibrium models . 64 3.5.2 School choice in ACE models . 66 3.6 Predicting the effect of English school choice reforms . 68 3.6.1 Decision-making under uncertainty . 69 3.7 Discussion . 71 4 Housing market and school segregation 72 4.1 Literature on changes in school segregation . 73 4.1.1 Main findings . 73 4.1.2 Gorard's segregation index . 74 4.1.3 Stability of FSM measure . 75 4.2 Method and data . 76 4.2.1 Data . 76 4.2.2 A counterfactual to current school admissions . 78 4.2.3 Measuring differences in segregation . 80 4.3 Results . 82 4.3.1 The level of pupil mobility in LAs . 82 4.3.2 School segregation and post-residential sorting . 86 4.3.3 Explaining levels of post-residential sorting . 90 4.3.4 Post-1988 mobility and post-residential sorting . 93 4.4 Discussion . 93 5 School intake versus neighbourhood characteristics 96 5.1 Schools included in analysis . 97 5.2 Current intake characteristics by school type . 99 5.3 Neighbourhood characteristics by school type . 99 5.3.1 Proximity and recruitment neighbourhoods . 101 5.4 School intake versus neighbourhood characteristics . 104 TABLE OF CONTENTS 5 5.4.1 Proximity ratio and recruitment ratio . 106 5.5 School admissions policies and sources of stratification . 109 5.6 Sorting within the religious schooling sector . 112 5.7 Discussion . 115 6 School competition and pupil performance 119 6.1 Theoretical models of school competition . 120 6.1.1 The school utility function . 120 6.1.2 The structure of competitive markets for schools . 123 6.1.3 The conduct of schools in a competitive market . 126 6.1.4 The dynamics of a competitive marketplace . 130 6.2 School competition { the estimation problem . 130 6.2.1 Key measures of competition between schools . 132 6.3 Literature on competition and pupil performance . 133 6.3.1 English non-experimental evidence . 133 6.3.2 English quasi-experimental evidence . 137 6.3.3 US public school competition evidence . 138 6.3.4 US Charter school competition evidence . 139 6.3.5 International private school competition evidence . 141 6.3.6 International `choice' school competition evidence . 144 6.4 Discussion . 145 7 Spillover effects of Grant-Maintained schools 147 7.1 The use of the GM schools vote in a regression discontinuity design . 151 7.1.1 Use of the GM vote in Clark (2007) . 153 7.1.2 RDD { efficiency versus bias trade-offs . 155 7.1.3 RDD { role of the pre-test . 157 7.1.4 RDD { independent causal effect of V on y . 158 7.1.5 RDD { fuzzy versus sharp discontinuity . 160 7.1.6 Using RDD in recent pupil-level data . 161 7.2 Data . 162 7.2.1 School variables . 163 7.3 GM schools and cream-skimming . 164 7.4 GM schools and competition . 168 7.5 Pupil achievement in neighbouring schools . 171 7.6 Pupil achievement in former GM schools in 2005 . 174 7.7 Discussion . 177 8 Spillover effects of religious schools 179 8.1 The supply of religious secondary school places . 182 8.1.1 Growth and decline of church attendance . 183 TABLE OF CONTENTS 6 8.1.2 The supply of religious secondary schools . 185 8.1.3 The distribution of religious schools today . 188 8.2 Competition from religious schools . 189 8.2.1 Secondary school transitions . 191 8.3 Method . 193 8.3.1 Instrumenting Catholic school supply .
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