Annual Report | 2018-2019 What to Do About Rising Seas and Climate Change?

Annual Report | 2018-2019 What To Do About Rising Seas and Climate Change? In last year’s annual report, I shared perspectives of At the Barnegat Bay Partnership, we’ve asked these climate a changing Barnegat Bay (Closed Sea No More...), a bay now change questions of our partners and other experts to assess accurately described as a rising sea. Climate at the Jersey the climate vulnerability of all 90 or so actions within the Shore is changing and our coastal waters are slowly but four priorities (water quality, water supply, living resources, steadily rising. We have more than a hundred years of data, and land use) of our revised Comprehensive Conservation consistently collected at several places in New Jersey and and Management Plan. We assessed seven climate change elsewhere regionally, with incremental increases in water features: 1) warmer, more variable winter weather, 2) warmer, levels and temperatures as clear as those of a growing child’s more variable summer weather, 3) warmer water, 4) drought, height marked on the back of a closet door... 5) increasing storminess, 6) sea-level rise (including related flooding), and 7) coastal acidification1. These have been Some increasingly important questions now are: What’s at identified as potential risks in national, regional, and various risk? Do we continue doing the same old things or rethink topical reports by the U.S. Global Change Research Program our priorities? Do we ignore sea-level rise, coastal storms and and various federal agencies2. other coastal changes, with the increased risks and costs of clean-up and recovery? How do we ensure the bay’s ecological future and our coastal communities’ economic future? 1 EPA. 2014. Being Prepared for Climate Change A Workbook for Developing Risk-Based Adaptation Plans. Climate Ready Estu- aries, Office of Water, Environmental Protection Agency. Washington, D.C. 120 pp. Downloaded in January 2019 from https://www.epa.gov/sites/production/files/2014-09/documents/being_prepared_workbook_508.pdf. 2 Horton, R., G. Yohe, W. Easterling, R. Kates, M. Ruth, E. Sussman, A. Whelchel, D. Wolfe, and F. Lipschultz, 2014: Ch. 16: Northeast. Climate Change Impacts in the United States: The Third National Climate Assessment, J. M. Melillo, Terese (T.C.) Richmond, and G. W. Yohe, Eds., U.S. Global Change Research Program, 16-1-nn. Downloaded in January 2019 from https://nca2014.globalchange.gov/report/regions/northeast. 2 The Barnegat Bay Partnership Annual Report 2018- 2019 Our Changing Climate Increasing Storminess The Northeast has experienced a greater increase in extreme precipi- The Northeast is affected by extreme events throughout the year tation than any other region in the United States. From 1958–2010, (e.g., snowstorms, hurricanes, nor’easters); we’re all familiar with the Northeast saw more than a 70% increase in the amount of their adverse impacts to the environment and human activities. precipitation falling during heavy events. Average annual precipitation increased more than 5 inches (>10%); average temperatures Sea-level Rise (including related flooding) increased more than 2°F. Since 1900, sea level has risen approximately 1 foot, a rate which exceeds the global average (approximately 8 inches) and will likely Warmer Water increase further. Sea-level rise, storm surge, and extreme precipita- Historically, our bay waters in winter were as cold as waters at tion events have all contributed to coastal and riverine flooding. the poles and would freeze over; in summer, our waters were as warm as those in the tropics. Increasing water temperatures can Coastal Acidification have profound effects on the bay. For example, southern species Ocean surface waters have become 30% more acidic over the last intolerant of cold water temperatures (e.g., bay nettle jellyfish) are 250 years as they have absorbed large amounts of carbon dioxide more likely to survive warmer winters. from the atmosphere. This acidification reduces the ability of marine organisms with carbonate shells (e.g., oysters, clams) to survive, Drought grow, and reproduce, and thus may affect marine food chains. The frequency, intensity, and length of heat waves are projected to increase in the Northeast. Summer drought strains water supplies during the summer tourist season when water demand is highest. continued, next page 3 What To Do About Rising Seas and Climate Change? continued from previous page What’s at Risk? The good news is that most restoration and protection activities are unlikely to be affected so much that we shouldn’t pursue the activity. However, our local partners and regional experts agree that the following activities are at risk. Water Quality Living Resources Increasingly frequent and severe storms are likely to damage or Sea-level rise and other factors may substantially affect, reduce incapacitate water utility and stormwater infrastructure and degrade and possibly even eliminate some aquatic habitats (e.g., intertidal water quality. Such storms will also increase stormwater loadings wetlands, submerged aquatic vegetation), which provide critical of bacteria and pathogens, with potential consequences for human habitats for fish and wildlife and essential ecosystem services health. Storms and other climate stressors may additionally increase (e.g., nutrient processing, wave attenuation, storm surge protec- pollutant loadings to the bay from our homes (pesticides, fertilizers), tion). Climate and other factors, especially drought, may affect automobiles and roadways (deicers, road salts, hydrocarbons), and management and even the survival of forests, a major landscape boating and marine activities. Thus, climate stressors may impact component with consequences for water quality throughout the implementation and increase costs of watershed management plan- watershed. These factors may alter conditions to favor non-native, ning, watershed monitoring programs, and nutrient management. invasive and nuisance species and increase the complexity and costs required to manage and/or control them, especially if the Water Supply species are disease vectors with public health consequences (e.g., Changing summer and winter weather patterns, the increasing non-native ticks). Climate stressors will likely complicate wildlife likelihood of drought, and sea-level rise will increase the variability conservation and fisheries management. of our water supplies and usage. These climate stressors may make it more difficult to develop and implement water conservation and Land Use management efforts (e.g., minimum ecological-flow determinations, Changing climate and sea-level rise may adversely impact the shallow groundwater protection plans, water re-use pilot projects); acquisition and management of natural lands. Climate and other this will make water more costly. stressors will affect sustainable land use practices and make climate adaption planning more complicated. Sea-level rise will also affect restoration planning and related activities, such as how and where we use and dispose of dredged materials. In summary, a variety of climate change stressors have potential to affect the ways we work to protect and restore the bay. Because we don’t know exactly how quickly some factors may change, they introduce uncertainty in our planning. This uncertainty also creates the need for some additional monitoring and science to track how quickly climate factors may change, how other features of our environment may also change, and how all of us also respond and adapt to our changing world. One thing is certain, the world is changing and we will need to work together to protect and restore the Barnegat Bay. If we do work together to address climate change and its impacts locally, the bay and its resources can remain vital and support our coastal economy and quality of life. Stan Hales Director For more information on climate change in the northeastern US, please see the Fourth National Climate Assessment Report at https://nca2018.globalchange.gov/chapter/18/. 4 The Barnegat Bay Partnership Annual Report 2018- 2019 Climate Change Initiatives Working with partners on diverse climate change efforts, the Barnegat Bay Partner- ship continued to lead efforts to: 1) identify vulnerable communities and groups, 2) promote sound strategies to become more resilient, and 3) expand and apply our local understanding of impacts of climate change, especially sea-level rise. Preparing for the Future to inform the public about the impacts of climate change on our The BBP is providing leadership and technical support in three signif- watershed communities. icant statewide initiatives to help communities respond to the chal- Mid-Atlantic Coastal Wetlands Assessment lenges of climate change: the New Jersey Climate Change Alliance, New Jersey Coastal Resilience Collaborative, and New Jersey’s (MACWA) Coastal Resiliency Plan. Because coastal wetlands provide critical services (e.g., The New Jersey Climate Change Alliance focuses on climate change flood protection, mainte- preparedness in key impacted sectors: public health; watersheds, nance of water quality, car- rivers, and coastal communities; built infrastructure; agriculture; and bon and nutrient sequestration, and fish and wildlife habitat), it natural resources. The New Jersey Coastal Resilience Collaborative is imperative that we monitor, manage, and enhance vulnerable is a network of public and private, non-profit, and academic part- wetlands as the sea level continues to rise. The MACWA research ners working together to communicate

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