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EU–China Economic Relations to 2025 Building a Common Future

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EU–China Economic Relations to 2025 Building a Common Future A Joint Report by Bruegel, Chatham House, China Center for International Economic Exchanges and The Chinese University of Hong Kong Alicia García-Herrero, K.C. Kwok, Liu Xiangdong, Tim Summers and Zhang Yansheng EU–China Economic Relations to 2025 Building a Common Future #EUChina2025 A Joint Report by Bruegel, Chatham House, China Center for International Economic Exchanges and The Chinese University of Hong Kong Alicia García-Herrero, K.C. Kwok, Liu Xiangdong, Tim Summers and Zhang Yansheng EU–China Economic Relations to 2025 Building a Common Future September 2017 The EU–China 2025 project has drawn upon funding from the partner institutes. In addition, the authors and directors would like to thank GlaxoSmithKline and Huawei for their generous support for Chatham House during the project, and Mr Chen Zhuolin for his generous research grant to The Chinese University of Hong Kong. The State Grid Corporation of China also provided funding for CCIEE to carry out this project. The Royal Institute of International Affairs Chatham House 10 St James’s Square London SW1Y 4LE T: +44 (0) 20 7957 5700 F: + 44 (0) 20 7957 5710 www.chathamhouse.org Charity Registration No. 208223 Copyright © The Royal Institute of International Affairs, 2017 Chatham House, the Royal Institute of International Affairs, does not express opinions of its own. The opinions expressed in this publication are the responsibility of the author(s). All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical including photocopying, recording or any information storage or retrieval system, without the prior written permission of the copyright holder. Please direct all enquiries to the publishers. ISBN 978 1 78413 241 5 A catalogue record for this title is available from the British Library. Typeset by Soapbox, www.soapbox.co.uk Cover image: The European Union (EU)–China Summit plenary session at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing on 12 July 2016. Copyright © HOW HWEE YOUNG/AFP/Getty Images. ii | Contents Directors’ Statement iv Senior Advisory Group v Executive Summary vi 1 Introduction 1 2 Trade Relations 8 3 Investment Relations 16 4 Infrastructure Investment and Connectivity 25 5 Energy and Climate Change 30 6 Innovation: Science, Technology and Industrial Cooperation 35 7 Financial Services and Financial Cooperation 41 8 People-to-People Ties 49 9 Conclusion 54 Acknowledgments 57 About the Authors 58 Appendix A: EU–China 2025: Project Background 59 Appendix B: EU–China Background 62 Appendix C: Economic Growth Projections 67 iii | Directors’ Statement In the four decades since China and the European Economic Community (EEC) estab- lished bilateral relations in 1975, both have changed enormously. China has risen to become the world’s largest economy in purchasing power parity terms, and the EEC has been transformed into the European Union, the world’s largest single market, with a common currency and free movement of goods, capital, services and labour. Given this process, it was perhaps inevitable that the EU has become China’s largest trading partner, and that China is the EU’s second-largest export market and main source of imports. Nonetheless, there is a general sense on both sides that decision-makers in Beijing and Brussels, as well as in other EU capitals, are yet to bring to fruition the full poten- tial of their relationship, be it in trade and investment, industrial cooperation or global governance, and in respect of climate change in particular. Against a background in which the United States is increasingly drawing into question its commitments to free trade and the global commons, and with the uncertainty resulting from Brexit, there clearly exists a need for China and the EU not only to increase the breadth and depth of their cooperation, but also to act more strategically in the way they relate to each other. Strengthening EU–China relations will not be easy. In fact, this report documents the hurdles and differences in views that exist as well as the opportunities. The continued difference in economic systems poses challenges for further collaboration, and policy- makers need to be frank about this if they wish to harvest the huge potential of deeper trade and investment linkages. Perhaps the best starting point where broad agreement could be found is in the area of climate policies. Both China and the EU are concerned by the issue. The topic is of such importance that it cuts across many other aspects of the relationship. For example, increasing connectivity through China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and the EU’s Juncker plan for strategic investments offers the opportu- nity to immediately build infrastructure in a climate-friendly way. Greater cooperation in science and innovation, as well as exchanges of people, also holds promise as an area in which progress can be made relatively easily. Over the past 18 months, staff from each of the four institutions we lead have assessed relations between the EU and China from a variety of different angles, from the broad to the specific. This report synthesizes the main insights and conclu- sions from the collective workshops in Beijing, Brussels, Hong Kong and London, and from the various papers produced by the individual researchers. It offers a series of recommendations on ways to maximize opportunities and minimize the risks facing this bilateral relationship that is crucial to the health of the global economy. We are delighted, therefore, to present this report to policymakers and the public, and hope that it might provide a useful point of departure for both sides to think creatively about how to bring their indispensable relationship to the next level. We would like to thank the staff of our four institutes for all their hard work on the EU–China 2025 project. We are also very grateful for the support of the members of our Senior Advisory Group, chaired by Romano Prodi, President of the European Commission (1999–2004) and Zeng Peiyan, Vice Premier of the People’s Republic of China (2003–08), who provided invaluable input and are listed overleaf. Professor Lawrence J. Lau, The Chinese University of Hong Kong Dr Robin Niblett, Chatham House Dr Guntram Wolff, Bruegel Mr Zhang Xiaoqiang, China Center for International Economic Exchanges (CCIEE) iv | Senior Advisory Group Chairs Peter Mandelson, First Secretary of State, UK (2009–10); Romano Prodi, President, European European Commissioner for Commission (1999–2004) Trade (2004–08) ZENG Peiyan, Chairman, CCIEE; Mario Monti, Prime Minister Vice-Premier, State Council, People’s of Italy (2011–13) Republic of China (2003–08) NING Gaoning, Chairman of the Board, Sinochem Group Members Frances O’Grady, General Secretary, CHEN Dawei, Vice President, China–EU Trades Union Congress Association; former Vice Minister, Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Gordon Orr, Senior Adviser, McKinsey; Development (2008–15) Board Member, Lenovo; Board Member, Swire Pacific CHEN Deming, former Minister of Commerce (2007–13); President, Urs Rohner, Chairman of the Board Association for Relations Across of Directors, Credit Suisse the Taiwan Straits SHU Yinbiao, Chairman, State Grid Victor CHU, Chairman, First Eastern Corporation of China Investment Group Michael Spence, Recipient of the 2001 Ian Davis, Chairman, Rolls-Royce plc Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences Tom Enders, CEO, Airbus Group SUN Yongfu, former Director-General, Victor FUNG, Group Chairman, Department of European Affairs, Fung Group Ministry of Commerce Dame Clara Furse DBE, Chairman, György Szapáry, Deputy Governor, HSBC UK; Chief Executive, Hungarian National Bank London Stock Exchange (2001–09) (1993–99; 2001–07) HE Yu, Chairman, China General Phil Thomson, President of Global Affairs, Nuclear Power Group GlaxoSmithKline HUANG Min, Vice President, TIAN Guoli, CEO, Bank of China Ltd China Railway Jean-Claude Trichet, President, European HUANG Ping, Director-General, Institute Central Bank (2003–11) of European Studies, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences TUNG Chee-hwa, Vice Chairman, 12th National Committee, Chinese People’s Anatole Kaletsky, Columnist, Reuters Political Consultative Conference, Gerard Kleisterlee, Chairman, Vodafone People’s Republic of China; First Chief Executive, Hong Kong Special Caio Koch-Weser, Secretary of State, Administrative Region (1997–2005) Ministry of Finance, Germany (1999–2005) Axel Weber, Chairman, UBS Pascal Lamy, Director-General (2005–13), World Trade Organization ZHAO Jinjun, Vice Chairman, CCIEE; Ambassador Extraordinary and LI Shufu, Chairman, Zhejiang Geely Plenipotentiary of China to the Republic Holding Group Co., Ltd of France and Monaco (2003–08) MA Yun (Jack), Founder and Executive ZHAO Xianming, Executive Director Chairman, Alibaba Group and President, ZTE Corporation v | Executive Summary Background The European Union (EU) and China have much in common. Their GDPs (€14.72 trillion and €9.75 trillion, respectively, in 2015) rank number two and number three in the world, behind the United States (€16.64 trillion). They are two of the most externally-integrated economies in the world, with annual international trade in goods and services of €15 trillion (€5 trillion if only trade external to the EU is considered) and €4.75 trillion, respectively, in 2015. Their annual bilateral trade in goods and services stood at €580 billion in 2015, with each being the other’s largest source of imports and second-largest export destination. Both EU and Chinese leaders believe that
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