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Attitudes Toward Local and National Government Expressed Over Chinese Social Media Attitudes Toward Local and National Government Expressed over Chinese Social Media A Case Study of Food Safety Douglas Yeung, Astrid Stuth Cevallos C O R P O R A T I O N For more information on this publication, visit www.rand.org/t/rr1308 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data is available for this publication. ISBN: 978-0-8330-9299-1 Published by the RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, Calif. © Copyright 2016 RAND Corporation R® is a registered trademark. Cover: Image via imtmphoto/Fotolia Limited Print and Electronic Distribution Rights This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited. Permission is given to duplicate this document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of its research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit www.rand.org/pubs/permissions.html. The RAND Corporation is a research organization that develops solutions to public policy challenges to help make communities throughout the world safer and more secure, healthier and more prosperous. RAND is nonprofit, nonpartisan, and committed to the public interest. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. Support RAND Make a tax-deductible charitable contribution at www.rand.org/giving/contribute www.rand.org Preface This report describes a psycholinguistic analysis of social media intended to explore how social media can provide a leading-edge perspective on how the Chinese public feels regarding domestic polit- ical issues (e.g., environment, food safety, local versus national gov- ernment). The overarching purpose of the project was to understand the content and tone of messages transmitted via social media where those topics were being discussed. This initial exploration of Chinese social media also describes a methodology for analyzing Chinese social media, possibilities and challenges, required tools and steps, and com- parisons with English-language social media. This research should be of interest to policymakers interested in public opinion regarding different levels of government and to researchers who wish to explore Chinese-language social media. This study was made possible by a generous gift from the Cyrus Chung Ying Tang Foundation. Through this gift, the RAND Center for Asia Pacific Policy established the Tang Institute for U.S.-China Relations in 2007, within which this research was conducted. RAND Center for Asia Pacific Policy The RAND Center for Asia Pacific Policy (CAPP) is part of Interna- tional Programs at the RAND Corporation. CAPP provides analysis on political, social, economic, and technological developments in and around the Asia Pacific. Through research and analysis, CAPP helps iii iv Attitudes Toward Government Expressed over Chinese Social Media public and private decisionmakers solve problems, tackle challenges, and identify ways to make society safer, smarter, and more prosperous. For more information on the RAND Center for Asia Pacific Policy, see www.rand.org/international_programs/capp or contact the director (contact information is provided on the web page). Contents Preface ............................................................................. iii Summary .......................................................................... xi Acknowledgments ............................................................. xvii Abbreviations .................................................................... xix CHAPTER ONE Social Media Use in China for Political Expression ........................ 1 Social Media Use in Contemporary China ..................................... 2 Food Safety Regulation in China and the Husi Incident ..................... 9 CHAPTER TWO Automated Analysis of Social Media Use in China .......................15 Our Psycholinguistic Approach to Social Media Analysis ...................16 Collecting and Preparing the Sample of Chinese Social Media Data ......18 Processing and Interpreting the Data in Context of Chinese Social Media ....................................................... 22 CHAPTER THREE Results .............................................................................25 Tweets About Food Safety and Husi Incident: Trends over Time ..........25 CHAPTER FOUR Conclusions .......................................................................39 Chinese Social Media Users Generally Expressed More Frustration with the National Government Than with Local Government, but Views Differed Across Twitter and Weibo ............................39 Analyzing Chinese Social Media Presented Unique Challenges ............41 v vi Attitudes Toward Government Expressed over Chinese Social Media Future Studies Can Extend Investigation of Chinese Domestic Politics and Social Media Platforms and Address Challenges of Automated Analysis ......................................................... 44 Concluding Thoughts ........................................................... 48 APPENDIX Search Taxonomy ................................................................49 References .........................................................................51 Figures 3.1. Emotion Word Usage in Tweets About Food Safety ........... 26 3.2. First-Person Pronoun Usage in Tweets About Husi Incident ................................................ 28 3.3. Other Pronoun Usage in Tweets About Husi Incident ..........29 3.4. Emotion Word Usage in Tweets About Husi Incident ..........31 3.5. Comparison of Pronoun Usage in Tweets About Food Safety Referencing Local and National Government and U.S. Companies ................................................32 3.6. Comparison of Emotion Word Usage in Tweets About Food Safety Referencing Local and National Government and U.S. Companies ................................................32 3.7. Comparison of Legal and Moral Word Usage in Tweets About Food Safety Referencing Local and National Government and U.S. Companies .................................33 3.8. Comparison of Pronoun Usage in Weibos About Food Safety Referencing Local and National Government and U.S. Companies, August 26–September 8, 2014 .......... 34 3.9. Comparison of Emotion Word Usage in Weibos About Food Safety Referencing Local and National Government and U.S. Companies, August 26–September 8, 2014 .......... 36 3.10. Comparison of Legal and Moral Word Usage in Weibos About Food Safety Referencing Local and National Government and U.S. Companies, August 26–September 8, 2014 .....................................37 vii Tables 1.1. Time Line of Shanghai Husi Incident and Other Food Safety Concerns, June–August 2014 .......................13 2.1. Number of Food Safety Microblog Posts by Category ........ 20 A.1. Terms Used to Collect Chinese-Language Social Media Posts ...................................................49 ix Summary Social media are an increasingly common means of political expres- sion. Analysis of them may help explain public opinion and percep- tions of political events and movements. Psycholinguistic research— research on what language can reveal about psychological states, such as attitudes and emotions—has yielded insight on public opinion and mood during political events in Iran and Hong Kong. This work uses a computerized methodology to analyze social media text in China, specifically that regarding sentiment about local and national govern- ment and Western companies during the 2014 Husi scandal regarding expired meat in McDonald’s and KFC restaurants. In China, social media have expanded public debate on issues relating to governance. Some believe their use has helped effect mean- ingful policy changes, while others contend it has merely provided a safety valve for citizens to air their grievances without threatening the regime. The number of Chinese Internet users is enormous—nearly 650 million, or 48 percent of the population, a higher number than in India, and a higher percentage than in India, Thailand, and Vietnam. Among these users, microblogging is widespread, with Sina Weibo being the most active microblogging platform. The number of Chinese microblog users reached a peak of 309 million in 2012; the number has decreased somewhat since then as the government has increasingly monitored content. Social media platforms popular elsewhere in the world, such as Facebook and Twitter, are not widely used in China, given government blocking of these sites. Still, many Chinese netizens do access Twitter through a xi xii Attitudes Toward Government Expressed over Chinese Social Media proxy server or other means to “climb over the Great Firewall.” Esti- mates of the number of Chinese citizens using Twitter vary widely, from 10,000 to 35 million. Food-safety issues offer insight into how social media might help gauge public opinion in China. Food safety became a widespread con- cern in 2008, when a state-owned company was discovered to have contaminated milk formula with melamine. In subsequent years, the proportion of Chinese considering food safety to be a substantial prob- lem increased sharply—particularly among high-income earners and younger Chinese most likely to be active on Sina Weibo. Analysis of social media postings on these issues, and particularly on the Husi scandal as it unfolded in July
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