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Jubilant Foodworks 10 December 2014

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Jubilant Foodworks 10 December 2014 Institutional Equities Jubilant FoodWorks 10 December 2014 Reuters: JUBI.BO; Bloomberg: JUBI IN Immense Operating Leverage ‘In Store’ BUY We have assigned Buy rating to Jubilant FoodWorks. We like its business model with the strong emphasis on delivery in large cities which enables it to circumvent high lease Sector: Restaurants rentals, a big barrier to profitability for food and retail players in India. We also admire the consistent innovation, willingness to expand during slowdown and the investments in CMP: Rs1,341 advertisement and promotion (A&P) that the company has made in the past few years, Target price: Rs1,737 despite slowdown and its impact on margins, all of which will stand it in good stead during the recovery phase. While we expect the recovery to be slow owing to a gradual Upside: 30% recovery in disposable income (hence our FY15 and FY16 earnings estimates are below street expectations), we believe Jubilant FoodWorks is an extraordinarily impressive Krishnan Sambamoorthy business that is likely to embark on a phenomenal earnings growth spree over FY15E- [email protected] FY18E, leading to tripling of EPS (EPS growth at 46%CAGR, with 35.1%, 58.1% and 46.7% +91-22-3926 8033 growth in FY16E, FY17E and FY18E) and near doubling of return ratios to over 35% in these three years. The stock trades at 60.3x one-year forward EPS for the past three years and 51.9x since its listing in FY10. Potential high earnings growth will sustain valuation. Aditya Joshi The stock trades at 34.7xFY17E and 23.8xFY18E EPS. Attributing 45x multiple on FY17E [email protected] EPS, we get a target price of Rs 1,737, up 30% from the CMP. Given the back-ended nature +91-22-3926 8028 of earnings growth, we believe that returns from a two-year perspective could be even higher at 68.3% (40xFY18E EPS gives a target price of Rs 2,257). Business strengths: Euromonitor reckons that the entire Quick Service Restaurant (QSR) Key Data business in CY13 stood at around Rs130.1bn (US$2.1bn), around 2.3% of the Indian food Current Shares O/S (mn) 65.5 service market size of Rs5,620bn (US$90.6bn) and is expected to grow 2.5x to Rs 330.5bn (US$5.3bn) - a CAGR of 20.5% up to CY18. Rising urbanisation as well as disposable income Mkt Cap (Rsbn/US$bn) 87.9/1.4 over this period, new culinary habits, increased participation of women in the workforce and 52 Wk H / L (Rs) 1,498/938 favourable demographics bode well for these QSRs. Delivery-based players like Domino’s offer Daily Vol. (3M NSE Avg.) 280,600 the added advantage of convenience as well. Western brands are aspirational for a large segment of the population. We find it remarkable that a high growth business like Domino’s, the Initiating Coverage market leader in QSR with a 17% share, which has expanded from 180 stores in FY08 to around Share holding (%) 4QFY14 1QFY15 2QFY15 800 stores currently (in addition to 38 Dunkin’ Donut outlets) and is far ahead of other QSR Promoter 49.6 49.6 48.9 players, did not have the need to significant fresh equity or debt. This is a testament to the business model and the management’s understanding of the business in India. FII 46.7 46.3 45.1 A play on urban recovery theme: None of the other potential plays on the urban recovery DII 0.1 1.3 1.7 theme like Nestlé, PVR or other retail players display the combination of potential sharp earnings Corporate 1.5 1.4 2.2 growth, healthy RoCE during slowdown and a potential sharp improvement in RoCE. Dunkin’ Donuts and Domino’s store visits: Our store visits to Dunkin’ Donuts gives us General Public 2.2 1.4 1.4 confidence that this business (which is currently impacting EBITDA margin by ~ 150-160 bps) is unlikely to take the sheen off potential earnings growth from the Domino’s franchise. We were One-Year Indexed Stock impressed by the footfalls at Dunkin’ Donuts (despite competition), the quality of food and variety 150 of menu, average bill size and reasonable delivery proportion. We expect breakeven in 2-3 years for Dunkin’ Donuts and 1-2 years for Domino’s stores in smaller cities that we visited in Gujarat 130 and Maharashtra. Delivery proportion was higher than expected, at over 30% at Domino’s outlets in these regions and while the sales per store is not as high as those in Tier-1 cities, they have 110 the advantage of lower lease rentals. While these stores have also borne the brunt of ongoing 90 disposable income slowdown, long- term opportunity is immense, given the low penetration, aspiration level of the brand, convenience and hygiene. 70 Dec-13 Feb-14 Apr-14 Jun-14 Aug-14 Oct-14 Dec-14 Y/E March (Rsmn) FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E FY18E JUBILANT FOODWORKS NSE CNX NIFTY INDEX Revenue 17,363 20,436 25,484 33,231 44,131 YoY (%) 22.8 17.7 24.7 30.4 32.8 EBITDA 2,496 2,698 3,695 5,483 7,591 Price Performance (%) EBITDA (%) 14.4 13.2 14.5 16.5 17.2 1 M 6 M 1 Yr Adj. PAT 1,182 1,193 1,611 2,547 3,737 Jubilant FoodWorks 2.9 6.4 (0.9) YoY (%) (9.8) 0.9 35.0 58.1 46.7 FDEPS (Rs) 18.1 18.2 24.5 38.6 56.4 Nifty Index (0.0) 8.9 31.7 RoE (%) 24.1 19.8 21.9 29.1 37.3 Source: Bloomberg RoCE (%) 23.5 18.8 20.4 27.2 35.1 ROIC (%) 27.9 21.4 25.0 35.8 51.7 P/E (x) 74.2 73.7 54.7 34.7 23.8 Source: Company, Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities Research Please refer to the disclaimer towards the end of the document. Institutional Equities (x) 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 12 12 14 10 09 10 11 11 12 13 13 14 12 14 11 14 10 12 13 14 10 13 11 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 2 Jul Jul Jul Oct Apr Apr Jun Jan Mar Mar Feb Feb Nov Dec Nov Nov Dec Dec Aug Sep Aug Sep May May Source: Bloomberg Source: Exhibit years After Company, Source: Exhibit 2010. February inlisting The stock Valuation growth. of EPS in terms delta tothis close anywhere likely toreport growth spree Jubilant Food a . rapid growth in the share price post listing, listing, price post share in the rapid growth (Rs) 2 1 : : traded traded at 60.3 1,600 p Share P Forward over W 1,400 Bloomberg, orks orks is an extraordinarily impressive business likely to embark on a phenomenal earnings FY15E 1,200 rice / E 1,000 x - Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities Research Institutional Nirmal Bang FY18E, leading to leading FY18E, one 800 - year forward P/E for the past three 600 400 200 0 is company FMCG years. other ofin No these tripling three EPS 10 10 12 13 14 10 10 11 14 12 11 12 13 14 12 14 14 10 11 12 13 11 13 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - it Jul Jul has not moved has not Oct Apr Oct Apr Apr Jan Jan Jun Mar Feb Mar Dec Nov Dec Dec Aug Sep Aug Sep May May years years and at an average of 51.9 up significantly significantly for the past two for the Jubilant FoodWorks - and x since - a - half half its Institutional Equities Exhibit 3: EPS and EPS growth (Rs) (%) 60 56 70 57.6 60 50 50 46.2 39 40 34.7 40 30 30 24 20 18 18 20 10 0.6 0 10 (11.1) (10) - (20) FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E FY18E Source: Company, Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities Research RoE and RoCE are expected to nearly double from ~19.8% and 18.8%, respectively, in FY15E to 37.3% and 35.1%, respectively, in FY18E as a result. In fact, it is a testament to the business model as well as resilience of the balance sheet (continued negative working capital of 25-30 days and fixed asset turnover of 3x-4x despite the slowdown) that RoE and RoCE, even in the midst of a continued slowdown, is expected to be ~19% in FY15E, EPS decline restricted to 9.8% in FY14 and EPS expected to be flat in FY15E. This is unusual for ‘growth’ companies, and certainly for restaurants, QSR and retail-focused businesses in India. Exhibit 4: RoE Exhibit 5: RoCE Exhibit 6: RoIC (%) (%) (%) 50 50 60 44.0 43.3 56.4 45 45 41.1 39.9 50 51.7 40 37.3 36.1 40 35.4 35.1 47.8 35 35 43.7 29.1 40 27.2 30 26.2 30 35.8 24.1 23.5 25 21.9 25 30 27.9 19.8 20.4 19.3 18.8 20 20 25.3 25.0 20 15 15 21.4 7.5 10 5.0 10 10 10.0 5 5 0 0 0 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E FY18E FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E FY18E FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E FY18E Source: Company, Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities Research As a result of the likely improvement in business outlook, OCF (operating cash flow) and FCF (free cash flow) are likely to expand substantially from their current levels.
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