International Expert Symposium - “Coping with Droughts” Building a Community of Practice on Drought Management Tools 19th – 21 th November 2014, Santiago, Chile

Drought Monitoring and Forecasting in the State of

Meiry Sakamoto Eduardo Martins FUNCEME Research Institute for Meteorology and Water Resources Drought Monitoring and Forecasting in the State of Ceará Meiry Sakamoto and Eduardo Martins [email protected] Context

Monthly Climatology of Precipitation

JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

Climatology of Precipitaion in Ceará Seasonality of rain determined by N-S migration of the ITCZ Rain Start: ITCZ reaches Southernmost (February)

Rain End: ITCZ migrates North of Equator (June-July)

Seasonality of Orós Inflow

Annual Precipitation

Annual Evaporation 400

350 Mean

300 Median

Shalow soils, cristaline embasement which can frequently ) Quantile

250s /

3 (75)

^ be seen at the surface, higher evaporation, a highly

200m

(

w concentrated rainfall regime

150o

l F 100

50

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Month Ephemeral rivers: run during few months of the first semester Drought Monitoring and Forecasting in the State of Ceará Meiry Sakamoto and Eduardo Martins [email protected] Context High Variability of Rainfall Regions Drought Monitoring and Forecasting in the State of Ceará Meiry Sakamoto and Eduardo Martins [email protected] Monitoring Network

FUNCEME Monitoring Center

METEOSAT Satellite Reception (FUNCEME)

S Band and X Band Meteorological Radars (FUNCEME)

Meteorological DCPs (84 stations) 550 Raingage Stations (FUNCEME) (FUNCEME) 149 Reservoirs Data Tropical Atlantic Buoys Data (COGERH) (Pirata Project) Drought Monitoring and Forecasting in the State of Ceará Meiry Sakamoto and Eduardo Martins [email protected] Climate Forecast System

4 Regional Climate Models The state climate forecast includes: (dynamical/statistical) + 1 (WRF 3.5)  1.Global Climate Models ECHAM 4.6, MRM CFSv2 +1 (CAM3)

Multi-ensemble: CPTEC/INPE (3GCMS),

INMET & FUNCEME (ECHAM4.6)

March  AMJ

Drought Monitoring and Forecasting in the State of Ceará Meiry Sakamoto and Eduardo Martins [email protected] Water Forecasting System

RESERVOIR INFLOW FORECASTS & WATER ALLOCATION Drought Monitoring and Forecasting in the State of Ceará Meiry Sakamoto and Eduardo Martins [email protected] Water Forecasting System RESERVOIR INFLOW FORECASTS – DYNAMICAL MODELS Drought Monitoring and Forecasting in the State of Ceará Meiry Sakamoto and Eduardo Martins [email protected] Water Allocation Demand/Supply Scenarios Runs SIGA - Integrated System for Management of Water Allocation Drought Monitoring and Forecasting in the State of Ceará Meiry Sakamoto and Eduardo Martins [email protected] GCMS RESULTS FOR NE

Precipitation Evapotranspiration Aridity Index

2000

-

1971

2070

- 2041 Drought Monitoring and Forecasting in the State of Ceará Meiry Sakamoto and Eduardo Martins [email protected] WATER ALLOCATION IMPACTS Drought Monitoring and Forecasting in the State of Ceará Meiry Sakamoto and Eduardo Martins [email protected] Application on Rainfed Agriculture

40°0'0"W 39°0'0"W

Assaré Campos Sales Aurora 7°0'0"S 7°0'0"S Caririaçu Pedoclimatic Suitability Nova Olinda Barro

Juazeiro do Norte Crato Salitre

Araripe Milagres

Abaiara Missão Velha

Mauriti

Porteiras Jardim Legend Legenda Jati

C1 - Plena (sem limitações climáticas) C1 - Full (without climatic limitation) Penaforte C4 - C4Moderada - Moderate (por deficiência (due to water Hídrica) deficiency) C5 - Inapta (por severa dificiência hídrica)

Dry Dry Years C5 – Unsuitable (due to severe water deficiency)

Crop 8°0'0"S 8°0'0"S

40°0'0"W 39°0'0"W 40°0'0"W 39°0'0"W

Restrictive and/or

Assaré Farias Brito Granjeiro potential factors of soil Beans Campos Sales Altaneira Aurora 7°0'0"S 7°0'0"S

Caririaçu

and climate Potengi Nova Olinda Barro

Juazeiro do Norte Santana do Cariri Crato Salitre

Araripe Milagres

Abaiara Barbalha Missão Velha

Porteiras Brejo Santo Jardim Legend Legenda Jati

C1 - Plena (sem limitações climáticas)

C1 - Full (without climatic limitation) Penaforte Regular Years Regular C2 - Plena (com excesso hídrico) Map of pedological Map of climatic C2 - Full (with excess of water) C4 - Moderada (por deficiência Hídrica) C5 – Moderate (due to water deficiency)

suitability suitability 8°0'0"S 8°0'0"S

40°0'0"W40°0'0"W 39°0'0"W39°0'0"W

Assaré Farias Brito Granjeiro Campos Sales Altaneira Aurora 7°0'0"S 7°0'0"S Caririaçu

Potengi Nova Olinda Map of pedoclimatic Barro

Juazeiro do Norte Santana do Cariri Crato suitability Salitre Araripe Milagres

Abaiara Barbalha Missão Velha Mauriti

Porteiras Brejo Santo Jardim

Jati LegendaLegend Penaforte C1 -C Plena1 - Full (sem (without limitações climatic climáticas) limitation) C2 - Plena (com excesso hídrico)

Wet Years Wet C2 - Full (with excess of water)

8°0'0"S 8°0'0"S

40°0'0"W 39°0'0"W Drought Monitoring and Forecasting in the State of Ceará Meiry Sakamoto and Eduardo Martins

[email protected] Drought Impact on Rainfed Agriculture

2012 2012

2012

Jan to JanMay to

Total duration (days) duration of dry Total spells -

Crop loss (%)

Jan to May Janto

- 102 days 73%

2013 2013

Jan to May Janto

-

2013 Total duration (days) duration of dry Total spells Crop loss (%)

92 days 64%

Crop Loss (%) (%) Loss Crop

2014 2014

Total Duration of Dry Spells (days) Dry of (days) Spells Duration Total Total Duration Dry of loss Spells Crop x Duration Total

2014 Total duration (days) duration of dry Total spells Crop loss (%) 77 days 29% Drought Monitoring and Forecasting in the State of Ceará Meiry Sakamoto and Eduardo Martins [email protected] Northeast Drought Monitor

Risk management increases coping capacity, builds resilience. proactive

reactive Crisis management treats the symptoms, not the causes. Drought Monitoring and Forecasting in the State of Ceará Meiry Sakamoto and Eduardo Martins [email protected] Northeast Drought Monitor

Three Pillars of Drought Preparedness

1. Monitoring and 2. Vulnerability/ 3. Mitigation and forecasting/early resilience and impact response planning and warning assessment measures

Foundation of a drought Identifies who and what Pre-drought programs and plan is at risk and why actions to reduce risks (short and long-term) Indices/ indicators linked Involves monitoring/ to impacts and action archiving of impacts to Well-defined and triggers improve drought negotiated operational

characterization response plan for when a Feeds into the drought hits

development/ delivery of information and decision- Safety net and social support tools programs, research and extension

Drought Monitoring and Forecasting in the State of Ceará Meiry Sakamoto and Eduardo Martins [email protected] Northeast Drought Monitor

METEOROLOGY INTEGRATION OF DATA BANK

ANA CEMADEN CPTEC INMET STATE MET SERVICES

• 5 categories of drought • Initial frequency: monthly • Integration of data: meteorological, hydrological and agricultural • Participatory and collaborative tool

STATE MET SERVICES/ EMATERS SERVICES/ MET STATE • Local validation

INTEGRATION OF DATA BANK DATA OF INTEGRATION

EN

INMET/ INMET/

CONAB+CEMAD

AGRICULTURE ANA CEMADEN CPTEC STATE WATER AGENCIES 15 MAPA

WATER RESOURCES INTEGRATION OF DATA BANK Drought Monitoring and Forecasting in the State of Ceará Meiry Sakamoto and Eduardo Martins [email protected] Northeast Drought Monitor

Main Indicators (12, 4 and 3 months): Information to support decision: • SPEI (Standardized Precipitation •Soil moisture (Calculated Soil Moisture Evapotranspiration Index) Ranking Percentile – Monthly CPC/NOAA) • SPI (Standardized Precipitation Index) •Vegetation Index (Vegetation Health Index – VHA – NESDIS/NOAA) •Precipitation (accumulated and anomaly)

Map generated with Map generated with SPEI12+ SPEI12+ SPI12 + SPI12 + SPEI 3 and 4 + SPI 3 SPEI 3 and 4 + SPI 3 and 4 and 4 + impact indicators Drought Monitoring and Forecasting in the State of Ceará Meiry Sakamoto and Eduardo Martins [email protected] Northeast Drought Monitor

Planning for drought preparedness and how public policy actions and contingency are triggered by the categories indicated in the Monitor

Normal or Immersed in Normal or wet conditions Entering drought extreme drought wet conditions

- Constant monitoring and - Implement short-term - Implement emergency forecasting mitigation actions; indicators response actions; indicators - Back to emphasizing have associated triggers that have associated triggers that monitoring and forecasting - Implement long-term link with Drought Monitor link with Drought Monitor and implementing long-term mitigation actions outlined in categories to spur actions in categories to spur actions in structural activities in the the drought plan (e.g., vulnerable sectors pre-defined vulnerable sectors pre-defined drought plan infrastructure and research) in the drought plan in the drought plan International Expert Symposium “Coping with Droughts” Building a Community of Practice on Drough Management Tools 19th – 21 th November 2014, Santiago, Chile

Thank you!

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www.funceme.br