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The Rise of the Southeast Asian Tigers

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The Rise of the Southeast Asian Tigers BUSINESS SWEDEN 2ND EDITION THE RISE OF THE SOUTHEAST ASIAN TIGERS ELEMENTS FOR SUCCESS IN SOUTHEAST ASIA 2ND EDITION THE RISE OF THE SOUTHEAST ASIAN TIGERS ELEMENTS FOR SUCCESS IN SOUTHEAST ASIA Graphic design/illustration: Business Sweden Marcom & Digitalisation Photos: Page 1, 4, 8: www.istockphoto.com. Page 3: Making Waves FOREWORD During the dawn of the 21st century, the economies of Southeast Asia were among the fastest growing in the world. After a painful backlash in 2008, the region has regained its momentum and has been showing remarkable growth in the last five years, reaching a combined GDP equivalent to the world’s fifth largest economy. In times of increased protectionism and trade tensions with a global economic slowdown and increased uncertainties, few regions present similar growth prospects. However, there are factors threatening the region’s optimistic outlook. Educational attainment and quality are uneven, there is a growing chasm between the rich and the poor, and public institutions in several of the coun- tries are weak and in need of domestic reforms to tackle challenges with regards to corruption and transparency. To continue on its current growth trajectory, MARTIN GLAUMANN Market Area Director there are needs for vast infrastructure investments across Southeast Asia, and Southeast Asia the region’s manufacturing sectors require significant productivity improve- ments. With increased wealth, the domestic consumption of a rapidly growing and increasingly affluent middle class will be an important growth driver. Over the longer term, technological change and especially the emergence of the digital economy will be major drivers of economic growth, rapidly affecting trade, productivity, and ways of doing business in the region. Swedish companies have a lot to offer the Southeast Asian countries in key areas such as industry automation, infrastructure development, and products and solutions for the emerging middle class. However, Swedish companies’ focus in Asia have in recent years been primarily oriented towards other markets such as China and India, resulting in partly overlooked opportunities in South- east Asia. At the same time, the major economies in Asia such as China, South Korea, Japan, and India are increasingly focusing their attention on the region. We are happy to present an up-dated edition of our report on the develop- ments in Southeast Asia, in which we highlight the fundamental yet strategic drivers that contribute to the growth in the region. The report is based on inter- views with Swedish companies where we present four Elements of Success to win in Southeast Asia. In this report we have also added a survey among 300 manufacturers and industry experts in the ASEAN region to explore their view of the transformation journey that lies within the manufacturing industry. For Swedish companies looking to embrace the growth opportunities in Asia, our firm view is that the Southeast Asia region is required to be awarded strategic importance. BUSINESS SWEDEN | THE RISE OF THE SOUTHEAST ASIAN TIGERS | 3 SOUTHEAST ASIA – OUTPACING GLOBAL GROWTH If viewed as a single economic entity, South- cannot be neglected in any international company’s east Asia would be the world’s fifth largest Asia- Pacific strategy. economy and with rapid growth projections, The region is home As illustrated in the following graph, the his- to more than 650 the region’s global significance can only be toric and forecasted growth levels of Southeast Asia’s “ million people or expected to increase further. economies strongly outperform those of the world 9% of the world’s and advanced economies. population From Singapore’s highly developed society to Viet- nam’s rapidly emerging middle class, Southeast Asia A DIVERSE REGION WITH COMMON offers a diverse and fascinating region which com- GROWTH DRIVERS bined represents 3.4% of global GDP1. With a large, In 1967, Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia young population and some of the world’s fastest and Philippines formed ASEAN6 (later joined by growing economies, the region’s strategic importance Vietnam, Myanmar Laos, and Cambodia), with the on the global stage can only be expected to increase aim and purpose to accelerate economic growth, further. social progress, cultural development and to promote The countries of Southeast Asia have long been regional peace, collaboration and mutual assistance held back by poor infrastructure and problems stem- on matters of common interest. ASEAN therefore ming from their colonial pasts, but advances have resembles the EU in terms of vision but differs in the steadily been made across all sectors and industries. level of integration, at least in terms of what has been As a whole, the region is expected to grow by an accomplished so far. Progress is however steadily average of 5.2% per year until 2022, on the assump- being made, with economic integration being driven tion that trade momentum holds and domestic through the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC). reforms continue2. In addition to its own internal free trade agreement The region is home to more than 650 million (FTA) ATIGA (ASEAN Trade in Goods Agree- people or 9% of the world’s population, which is ment), ASEAN has also signed FTAs with economic also one of the distinctive attributes of the region’s powerhouses such as China, India, Japan, Korea and growth outlook. In 2012, 190 million (less than Australia. 30%) were classified as middle class3. Driven by the Through its strategic location, Southeast Asia region’s rapid development, and rising incomes, 50 has for centuries been thriving on trade with other million new consumers will join the ranks of the regions and countries. The strait of Malacca, flow- middle class in Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, ing between Malaysia, Indonesia, and Singapore, has Thailand and Vietnam by 2022. The middle class is for hundreds of years been one of the world’s bus- projected to grow to 350 million people by 2022 and iest trade routes, and more than 15 million oil bar- continue on its upward trajectory4. rels pass through every day. The individual Southeast While Indonesia and Malaysia will see annual Asian countries differ in their dependence on inter- The middle class growth rates of 5–6%, Vietnam, Philippines, Myan- national trade, but they share a similar stated com- “population is mar, Laos and Cambodia are expected to grow by mitment towards greater openness and increased expected to more almost 7% per year until 20235. These are key rea- integration – within the region as well as with global than double from 190 million to 350 sons why many consider Southeast Asia to be among value chains. Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thai- million between the most interesting regions globally, and one that land and Vietnam have been nicknamed the ‘tiger 2012 and 2022 4 | BUSINESS SWEDEN | THE RISE OF THE SOUTHEAST ASIAN TIGERS HISTORIC VS. FORECASTED GDP GROWTH RATES; SOUTHEAST ASIA, WORLD & ADVANCED ECONOMIES CAMBODIA Historic: 6.9 8% Future: 6.9 LAOS Historic: 6.7 Future: 7 VIETNAM MYANMAR Historic: 6.8 Historic: 6.7 Future: 6.5 6% Future: 7 MALAYSIA PHILIPPINES Historic: 5.2 Historic: 6.5 Future: 4.6 Future: 6.6 4% INDONESIA Historic: 5.2 Future: 5.3 THAILAND Historic: 4.1 2% Future: 3.7 SINGAPORE Historic: 3.3 Future: 2.7 0% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% ADVANCED WORLD GDP 2017 ECONOMIES GDP size Historic: 3.5 (Current $US) of Sweden Historic: 2.2 Future: 3.4 Historic growth (Average growth rate 2017–2019) Future: 1.6 Source: IMF, Worldbank, Business Sweden Analysis, OECD Future growth (Average growth rate 2019–2023) cub economies’, an allusion to the ‘Asian tigers’ – difficult to imagine ten countries more different. Hong Kong, South Korea, Taiwan, and Singapore; From an income perspective, Singapore has a GDP who all achieved high levels of economic develop- per capita over 40 times higher than that of Myan- ment in the latter half of the 20th century through mar. Political systems range from autocracy to export-led growth with high technology content. democracy. Economic systems range from socialist This positive sentiment towards international trade to capitalist. Religions and languages are even more can also readily be seen in the local business commu- diverse. nity. A recent survey found that companies within Despite this diversity, the leaders of ASEAN ASEAN remain more positive about the outlook for remain committed to strengthening the partnership trade than any other trade bloc, despite having the with the aim of furthering the level of integration. highest proportion of corporates expecting protec- The benefits of increased integration and leveraging tionism to rise7. each other’s strengths seem to outweigh the risks and For Swedish companies, an additional main rea- downsides of protectionism and fiercer competition. son for seeing Southeast Asia as a strategic region is There are also external factors that may impact the geographic proximity of the countries. Consider Southeast Asia’s outlook. As China’s unprecedented 46% of MNC’s regional Asia the location of Singapore, the 2nd highest ranked growth journey is starting to slow down and the “ headquarters country in the world in terms of ease of doing busi- world’s largest country becomes increasingly exposed are located in ness and the top location in Asia for multinational to geopolitical turmoil and trade tensions, particu- Singapore corporations’ regional headquarters (46%)8. larly with the US, MNCs are likely to look towards Using Singapore as a base, the entirety of the other markets to diversify risks by moving produc- ASEAN bloc with its 650 million inhabitants are tion and establishing new supply chains. When accessible within 3.5 hours by air travel. Further, the assessing potential replacement of Chinese exports to region’s strategic location provides easy access to the US, Southeast Asia stands out to potentially be other economic superpowers, such as China, India, a winner with Vietnam, Philippines and Cambodia Australia, and Japan.
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