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19496 NAE Bridge V32n4 Winter 2002 The BRIDGE LINKING ENGINEERING AND SOCIETY Scalable Quantum Computing Using Solid-State Devices Bruce Kane The Role of Computational Fluid Dynamics in Process Industries David Lee Davidson The Human Factor Kim J. Vicente Sustainable Energy from Nuclear Fission Power Marvin L. Adams Stretching the Boundaries of Nuclear Technology James P. Blanchard Licensing and Building New Nuclear Infrastructure Peter S. Hastings Promoting the technological welfare of the nation by marshalling the knowledge and insights of eminent members of the engineering profession. The BRIDGE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF ENGINEERING George M.C. Fisher, Chair Wm. A. Wulf, President Sheila E. Widnall, Vice President W. Dale Compton, Home Secretary Harold K. Forsen, Foreign Secretary William L. Friend, Treasurer Editor-in-Chief George Bugliarello (Interim) Managing Editor: Carol R. Arenberg Production Assistants: Penelope Gibbs, Kimberly West The Bridge (USPS 551-240) is published quarterly by the National Academy of Engineering, 2101 Constitution Avenue, N.W., Washington, DC 20418. Periodicals postage paid at Washington, D.C. Vol. 32 No. 4 Winter 2002 Postmaster: Send address changes to The Bridge, 2101 Constitution Avenue, N.W., Washington, DC 20418. Papers are presented in The Bridge on the basis of general interest and time- liness. They reflect the views of the authors and not necessarily the position of the National Academy of Engineering. The Bridge is printed on recycled paper. © 2002 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. A complete copy of each issue of The Bridge is available in PDF format at http://www.nae.edu/TheBridge. Some of the articles in this issue are also available as HTML documents and may contain links to related sources of information, multimedia files, or other content. The Volume 32, Number 4 • Winter 2002 BRIDGE LINKING ENGINEERING AND SOCIETY Editorial 3 The Expanding Frontiers of Engineering George Bugliarello Features 5 Scalable Quantum Computing Using Solid-State Devices Bruce Kane The end limit of Moore’s Law scaling is the threshold of the quantum realm. 9 The Role of Computational Fluid Dynamics in Process Industries David Lee Davidson Computational fluid dynamics has enormous potential for industry in the twenty-first century. 15 The Human Factor Kim J. Vicente Most designers of technological systems do not pay enough attention to human needs and capabilities. 20 Sustainable Energy from Nuclear Fission Power Marvin L. Adams Fission power has the potential to provide a large fraction of the world’s energy for centuries to come. 27 Stretching the Boundaries of Nuclear Technology James P. Blanchard Radioisotopes are being used in numerous commercial applications, and many more are on the horizon. 33 Licensing and Building New Nuclear Infrastructure Peter S. Hastings A resurgence of the nuclear industry will require overcoming major challenges. NAE News and Notes 40 2002 Annual Meeting 42 President’s Remarks 47 Development Activities at the 2002 Annual Meeting 48 U.S. Frontiers of Engineering and Japan-America Frontiers of Engineering (continued on next page) The BRIDGE 50 2002 Founders Award Presented to Stuart W. Churchill 53 Call for Nominations for 2003–2004 NAE Awards 53 Norman Fortenberry Named Director of New Education Center 54 Grant Support for EngineerGirl! Website 54 Steve Meyer Interns at NAE 55 Assessing Technological Literacy 55 Message from the Foreign Secretary 57 NAE Newsmakers 58 In Memoriam 59 Calendar of Meetings and Events The National Academies Update 60 National Academies Presidents’ Statement on Science and Security 61 Everglades Restoration Plan 62 Publications of Interest The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self- The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the author- to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility ity of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional char- has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on ter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own scientific and technical matters. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts is president of the initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. National Academy of Sciences. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, The National Research Council was organized by the National under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its adminis- science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering tration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal gov- accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the ernment. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engi- Council has become the principal operating agency of both the neering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages edu- National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engi- cation and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of neering in providing services to the government, the public, and the engineers. Dr. Wm. A. Wulf is president of the National Academy scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered of Engineering. jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts and Dr. Wm. A. Wulf are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council. www.national-academies.org 3 Editorial The Expanding In a paper published in this issue, David Davidson Frontiers of Engineering describes how computational fluid mechanics can be Every year the NAE Frontiers used to solve important industrial problems. At this of Engineering Symposium juncture, however, the technology is still mostly in the brings together young engi- domain of experts, very few of whom are in industry, so neers working on cutting- applications are limited. The situation could be reme- edge technologies in many died by closer interactions between experts in univer- different fields. Papers deliv- sities and industry. ered at the eighth sympo- The papers in the area of human factors dealt with a sium this year at the variety of topics. Kim Vicente (in a paper published here) recommends changes in engineering curricula to George Bugliarello is chancellor of Beckman Center of the focus attention on interfaces between the technical and Polytechnic University in Brooklyn, National Academies in human sciences and the importance of human factors in New York, and an NAE member. Irvine, California, dealt with four themes: chemical and the design process. Another speaker emphasized the molecular engineering; technology for human beings; role of human factors in transportation. Human factors the future of nuclear energy; and engineering challenges are the most frequent causes of car crashes, which kill for quantum information technology. The six papers more than 40,000 Americans annually. To deal with published here we believe will be of special interest to this problem, we need to overcome current limitations our readers—NAE members, members of Congress, and in collecting and analyzing data about driver behavior other decision makers in government and industry. All and the influence of automotive skills, distractions, and 15 papers (including the papers published here) and a driver judgment. Another speaker addressed the impor- broad historical overview of digital communication tance of human factors in the design of interfaces delivered by Andrew Viterbi will be published in full between software and users. Lack of attention to user early next year by the National Academies Press in a needs can lead to frequent calls for customer service, new Frontiers of Engineering volume. In this editorial, I increases in product returns, and general dissatisfaction would like to underscore some of the major issues raised among customers. A stronger focus on human factors in the symposium. could obviate many of these problems, shorten develop- In the area of chemical and molecular engineering, ment times, and lead to more innovative products. one speaker emphasized the significant differences One presentation in the human factors area focused between nanocluster properties and their corresponding on the development of direct brain-computer interfaces macro properties, which have opened up a range of inno- for disabled people, one of the most fundamental chal- vative nanotechnologies. Our understanding of the lenges in human-machine interaction. In direct brain- properties of amorphous polymeric nanoclusters is still computer interfaces, computers and devices are limited, however, and this is bound to be an important activated by direct action of the brain rather than by area of research in the future. Another talk focused on muscle movements. Although considerable progress has the continuing quest for cleaner, more efficient
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