Quantifying Operational Risk: Possibilities and Limitations Hansj¨org Furrer ETH Z¨urich
[email protected]/∼hjfurrer (Based on joint work with Paul Embrechts and Roger Kaufmann) Deutsche Bundesbank Training Centre, Eltville 19-20 March 2004 Managing OpRisk Contents A. The New Accord (Basel II) B. Risk measurement methods for OpRisks C. Advanced Measurement Approaches (AMA) D. Conclusions E. References Managing OpRisk 1 A. The New Accord (Basel II) • 1988: Basel Accord (Basel I): minimum capital requirements against credit risk. One standardised approach • 1996: Amendment to Basel I: market risk. • 1999: First Consultative Paper on the New Accord (Basel II). • 2003: CP3: Third Consultative Paper on the New Basel Capital Accord. (www.bis.org/bcbs/bcbscp3.htmcp3) • mid 2004: Revision of CP3 • end of 2006: full implementation of Basel II ([9]) Managing OpRisk 2 What’s new? • Rationale for the New Accord: More flexibility and risk sensitivity • Structure of the New Accord: Three-pillar framework: Pillar 1: minimal capital requirements (risk measurement) Pillar 2: supervisory review of capital adequacy Pillar 3: public disclosure Managing OpRisk 3 What’s new? (cont’d) • Two options for the measurement of credit risk: Standard approach Internal rating based approach (IRB) • Pillar 1 sets out the minimum capital requirements: total amount of capital ≥ 8% risk-weighted assets • MRC (minimum regulatory capital)def= 8% of risk-weighted assets • New regulatory capital approach for operational risk (the risk of losses resulting from inadequate or failed internal processes, people and systems, or external events) Managing OpRisk 4 What’s new? (cont’d) • Notation: COP: capital charge for operational risk • Target: COP ≈ 12% of MRC • Estimated total losses in the US (2001): $50b • Some examples 1977: Credit Suisse Chiasso-affair 1995: Nick Leeson/Barings Bank, £1.3b 2001: Enron (largest US bankruptcy so far) 2003: Banque Cantonale de Vaudoise, KBV Winterthur Managing OpRisk 5 B.