Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1533–1551, 2019 https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-1533-2019 © Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License. Future projections of temperature and mixing regime of European temperate lakes Tom Shatwell1,2, Wim Thiery3,4, and Georgiy Kirillin1 1Leibniz-Institute of Freshwater Ecology and Inland Fisheries (IGB), Department of Ecohydrology, Müggelseedamm 310, 12587 Berlin, Germany 2Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research (UFZ), Department of Lake Research, Brückstrasse 3a, 39114 Magdeburg, Germany 3ETH Zurich, Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, Universitaetstrasse 16, 8092 Zurich, Switzerland 4Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Department of Hydrology and Hydraulic Engineering, Pleinlaan 2, 1050 Brussels, Belgium Correspondence: Tom Shatwell (
[email protected]) Received: 21 November 2018 – Discussion started: 26 November 2018 Revised: 25 February 2019 – Accepted: 26 February 2019 – Published: 18 March 2019 Abstract. The physical response of lakes to climate warm- tivity analysis predicted that decreasing transparency would ing is regionally variable and highly dependent on individ- dampen the effect of warming on mean temperature but am- ual lake characteristics, making generalizations about their plify its effect on stratification. However, this interaction was development difficult. To qualify the role of individual lake only predicted to occur in clear lakes, and not in the study characteristics in their response to regionally homogeneous lakes at their historical transparency. Not only lake morphol- warming, we simulated temperature, ice cover, and mixing ogy, but also mixing regime determines how heat is stored in four intensively studied German lakes of varying mor- and ultimately how lakes respond to climate warming.