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Sunspots”? It Is to This Subject That Years 1259-1400 A Re-examination of the Sunspot-Weather – Theory of Business Cycles Daniel Kuester and Charles R. Britton ABSTRACT economy?” This question is addressed by the authors of this paper. The economic activity in arid/semiarid areas of the western United States would INTRODUCTION seem to be much more influenced by weather than humid/semi humid areas The National Bureau of Economic since they are located marginally closer Research has a specific definition of to major drought conditions at any business cycles. moment in time. This paper reexamines the original “sunspot” theory of business “Business cycles are a type of cycles of William Stanley Jevons, the fluctuation found in the economic contributions of his son H. S. Jevons, activity of nations that organize their and the further extensions made by H.L. work mainly in business enterprises: A Moore. These individuals sought a cycle consists of expansions occurring of causal link between meteorological about the same time in many economic conditions and economic activity activities, followed by similarly general through agricultural production. The recessions, contractions, and revivals authors of this paper present an analysis which merge into the expansion phase of of the development of these theories. the next cycle; this sequence of changes is recurrent but not periodic…” (Lee, KEY WORDS: Business Cycles, 1971) Sunspot-Weather, W.S. Jevons From this definition comes a major PRELUDE salient factor. Business cycles are fluctuations in the overall aggregate The recent drought conditions in the economy yet there are still cycles of U.S. along with a weakening economy particular industries within that have resparked an interest in the impact aggregate. of weather upon the economy. Whereas the drought seems almost pervasive This paper concerns itself with the throughout the United States its effects particular industries represented by are more pronounced in the arid/semi- agricultural production and more arid west where smaller deviations from specifically the influence of periodic normal rainfall compound into larger solar activities upon the agricultural impacts upon the arid region in general. industries. Of particular interest will be The inventory of water stocks is already the development of the “theory” behind low at a time when rainfall replacements the causal relationship between solar are inadequate. (Henderson and Novack activity and overall economic activity. 2003) This type of situation leads to the ques tio n: “W ha t is the re latio ns hip Whereas there are numerous theories as between weather and the overall to the causes of the business cycles (monetary overinvestment, non- monetary overinvestment, under The relationship between agriculture and consumption, psychological, overall business activity has been technological change, population analyzed in depth in economic literature. change, institutional change, natural Much of the analysis deals with the resources, and even war) the authors of lo ng-run or secular activity. This the paper are concerned with the so- concept can be traced to Walter Bagehot called “Nature” theory. These types of who states that cheap corn prices helped theories hypothesize a causal the total economy. (Bagehot, 1887) “The relationship between meteorological effect of this cheapness is great in every conditions and overall business activity department of industry. The working with the connecting link being changes classes, having cheaper food, need to in agricultural output and income. H. L. spend so much less on that food, and Moore’s causal relationship runs have more to spend on other things. In between the behavior of the planet consequence, there is a gentle Venus to rainfall cycles to agricultural augmentation of demand through almost output to agricultural supportive all departments of trade.” industries to overall business activities. (Moore, 1923) Simply put this means that decreasing food prices bring about a decreased A more widely accepted theory (yet still income in the agricultural sector. But being investigated) concerns the works the purchasing power of the industrial of William Stanley Jevons (Jevons, sector increases since it takes less to feed 1909) and his son H. Stanley Jevons urban workers. Obviously, once the (Jevons, 1910). The elder Jevons and general economy becomes more then his son H. S. believed that cyclical industrial relative to agriculture then the behavior of solar activity cause changes overall economy will expand. The in agricultural output and therefore relationship between efficiency gains in general economic activity. This has agriculture and therefore falling food been named the “sunspot” theory. prices relative to industry is a well Although sometimes regarded as recognized phenomenon. Economic bordering on the bizarre it is not too growth results. Business activity farfetched. Non-irrigated agrarian increases in direct relationship with the societies obviously would suffer ratio of manufactured commodities to pronounced effects upon agricultural agricultural commodities (Graue, 1930 production (and therefore incomes) from p. 475). This is a long-run relationship climatic alterations. It follows that however. Expanding agriculture leads to relative large variations in agricultural falling prices and consolidation of farms. production would lead to variations in Falling farm prices allow for a growing supporting industries (forward linkages) industrial sector. The industrial sector and then impacts upon industrial output absorbs the surplus labor released from which use raw materials from agriculture the agricultural sector (Lewis, 1963). (backward linkages) and eventually The total economy expands according to overall economic activity. the general economic growth theory. AGRICULTURAL OUTPUT AND The short-run relationship is different INDUSTRY ACTIVITY from the long-run growth model. Cycles in agricultural prices and therefore Lack of precipitation impacts greatly agricultural incomes are directly related upon fishing and skiing economies. to industrial and overall economic What the authors wish to do in this paper output. Lower agricultural incomes is examine the weather related “sunspot” mean lower purchasing of industrial theory of the business cycle as goods and lower overall economic developed by the Jevons. activities. The declining importance of agriculture in the general economy means the business cycle is much less THE SUNSPOT THEOR Y agriculturally related but it is still a relationship worthy of study. William Stanley Jevons summarized his thoughts on the effects of weather on “REAL” CAUSES OF CYCLES economic activity in three chapters of his book Investigations in Currency and “Real” causes of a business cycle Finance (Jevons, 1910). An in-depth include variations in weather which is examination of these essays reveals what is at issue in this paper. First, some very interesting conclusions. In agricultural output traditionally has a the first essay entitled “The Solar Period one year production period (excluding and the Price of Corn” (1875) he fir st multiple crop situations). The question investigates the striking similarity is whether there is a rhythmatic or between the length of many historical cyclical aspect to agricultural output business cycles and the length of the over the short-run (versus the long-run average length of the sunspot cycle secular trend). Furthermore, is there a (which is approximately eleven years). cycle to farm output caused by cyclical changes in weather (both temperature Jevons finds that the prices of most and rainfall)? Lastly, are these agricultural products vary dramatically meteorological cycles caused by changes over an eleven year cycle. He cites in other real variables such as English agricultural price data from the “sunspots”? It is to this subject that years 1259-1400. The prices of wheat, William Stanley Jevons directed his barley, oats, beans, peas, and rye reach a attentions which were then continued by relative minimum in the second year of his son H. Stanley Jevons. The the cycle, an absolute maximum in the development of these “sunspot” or fourth year of the cycle and an absolute weather theories of business cycles is minimum in the tenth year of the cycle particularly relevant to arid lands. Non- before recovering in the final year of the irrigated arid and semi-arid lands always cycle and the first year of the new cycle. operate closer to disaster than There does appear to be a rather obvious humid/semi-humid lands. Small and consistent trend in prices over these variations in temperature and rainfall eleven year periods. Jevons finds that have exaggerated effects upon weather the data (English wheat prices re lated industries when that industry from1595-1761) available to him in the operates at marginal levels. It was Wealth of Nations (Smith, 1776) pointed out to the authors that there are confirm similar although less marked non-agricultural industries which are trends in agricultural prices. greatly also affected in arid regions. Jevons does not discount other more meaningful in studying the significant factors that might cause the relationship between weather patterns rather predictable nature of these and economic activity in arid and semi- business cycles. Technological arid lands. advancements, wars, and other factors independent of agricultural and weather One piece of empirical evidence which cycles can and do exhibit great influence W.S. Jevons believed would strengthen over the economic well being of a his sunspot business
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