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UNO Template 07 November 2014 Asia Pacific/Hong Kong Equity Research IT Hardware Lenovo Group Ltd (0992.HK / 992 HK) Rating OUTPERFORM* Price (06 Nov 14, HK$) 10.78 REINSTATEMENT Target price (HK$) 13.00¹ Upside/downside (%) 20.6 Mkt cap (HK$ mn) 119,751 (US$ 15,447) Near-term pain and long-term gain Enterprise value (US$ mn) 11,356 Number of shares (mn) 11,108.65 ■ Reinstate coverage with OUTPERFORM and 12M TP of HK$13. FY2Q15 Free float (%) 50.0 sales were 7% below consensus—the first time in two years, due to China 52-week price range 12.62 - 7.72 smartphone issues. Pre-tax profit was still 1% ahead from PC execution. Our ADTO - 6M (US$ mn) 52.3 *Stock ratings are relative to the coverage universe in each investment thesis has been: improving PC scale translates into faster pre-tax analyst's or each team's respective sector. profit growth than sales. This was still the case with 24% YoY profit growth vs ¹Target price is for 12 months. 7% sales. IBM consolidates for the full December quarter; two months for Research Analysts Motorola. Lenovo has cleared five US deals with CFIUS since 2005. Thompson Wu ■ Long-term profit expansion outweighs near-term risks. We are 886 2 2715 6386 [email protected] preparing for integration risks, restructuring charges, and heightened PC/smartphone competition leading to depressed results for the next two Irene Wu 886 2 2715 6365 quarters. Afterwards, we believe Lenovo can drive supply-chain synergies [email protected] from the deals (more immediately from IBM), consolidate server market share, and increase PC, smartphone and enterprise profits faster than even what the market expects. ■ PC business still solid. PC results need to be strong in the meantime. September quarter PC sales increased 11% YoY; its September quarter share was ~20%. It is possible for Lenovo to reach a 25% global market share in 2-3 years by maintaining its China position and consolidating outside, in our view. Its market share ex China is only 14%. We believe it can continue to grow outside of China, and IBM's x86 server business will likely give the PC business a big boost in scale. ■ Valuation. We are confident that Lenovo's combined pre-tax margins and profits can meaningfully rise over the next 12-24 months. If Lenovo's execution is as crisp as it has been over the past two years, we would expect a faster turnaround in both IBM and Lenovo (i.e., 4-6 quarters). Our TP is based 15x our P/F FY16E EPS (or 18x GAAP EPS), vs the historical multiple of 11-18x. Share price performance Financial and valuation metrics Year 3/14A 3/15E 3/16E 3/17E Price (LHS) Rebased Rel (RHS) Revenue (US$ mn) 38,707.1 47,139.0 54,913.8 58,153.5 14 160 EBITDA (US$ mn) 1,307.2 1,501.2 2,006.9 2,609.1 12 140 EBIT (US$ mn) 1,052.1 1,034.5 1,443.1 1,987.4 10 120 Net profit (US$ mn) 817.2 735.9 1,050.9 1,421.7 8 100 EPS (CS adj.) (US$) 0.08 0.07 0.09 0.13 6 80 Nov-12 Mar-13 Jul-13 Nov-13 Mar-14 Jul-14 Change from previous EPS (%) n.a. -22.7 -0.8 32.3 Consensus EPS (US$) n.a. 0.08 0.10 0.13 The price relative chart measures performance against the EPS growth (%) 28.2 -14.7 42.8 35.3 HANG SENG INDEX which closed at 23649.31 on 06/11/14 P/E (x) 17.9 20.9 14.7 10.8 On 06/11/14 the spot exchange rate was HK$7.75/US$1 Dividend yield (%) 2.2 1.5 1.3 1.7 EV/EBITDA (x) 9.1 7.6 5.5 3.6 Performance over 1M 3M 12M P/B (x) 4.9 4.8 3.8 2.9 Absolute (%) -10.5 -2.4 28.0 — ROE (%) 28.8 23.6 28.9 30.7 Relative (%) -11.4 0.4 25.4 — Net debt/equity (%) net cash net cash net cash net cash Source: Company data, Thomson Reuters, Credit Suisse estimates DISCLOSURE APPENDIX AT THE BACK OF THIS REPORT CONTAINS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS, AND THE STATUS OF NON-US ANALYSTS. US Disclosure: Credit Suisse does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the Firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. CREDIT SUISSE SECURITIES RESEARCH & ANALYTICS BEYOND INFORMATION® Client-Driven Solutions, Insights, and Access 07 November 2014 Focus tables and chart Figure 1: Lenovo FY2Q15 results review and FY15/16 earnings estimates (in US$ mn) F2Q15A (Sep-14) F3Q15E (Dec-14) F2015E (Mar-15) F2016E (Mar-16) Actual Cons. +/- % CS Cons. +/- % CS Cons. +/- % CS Cons. +/- % Revenue 10,476 11,275 -7.1 13,653 13,462 1.4 47,139 46,618 1.1 54,914 55,963 -1.9 YoY% 7.2% 15.4% 26.6% 24.8% 21.8% 20.4% 16.5% 18.7% QoQ% 0.8% 8.5% 30.3% 19.4% Operating profits 366 339 7.7 288 357 -19.3 1,035 1,191 -13.1 1,443 1,402 2.9 Pre-tax income 329 325 1.1 253 325 -22.1 910 1,104 -17.5 1,314 1,350 -2.7 Net income 262 260 0.9 207 270 -23.1 736 890 -17.4 1,051 1,075 -2.2 GAAP EPS (US$) $0.025 $0.025 0.9 $0.019 $0.024 -23.1 $0.066 $0.080 -17.4 $0.095 $0.097 -2.2 P/F EPS (US$) (1) $0.026 $0.023 $0.076 $0.112 GM (%) 13.9% 13.0% 13.3% 13.6% 13.3% 13.3% 13.8% 13.7% Opex/Sales (%) 10.4% 10.0% 11.2% 10.9% 11.1% 10.7% 11.2% 11.2% OPM (%) 3.5% 3.0% 2.1% 2.7% 2.2% 2.6% 2.6% 2.5% NM (%) 2.5% 2.3% 1.5% 2.0% 1.6% 1.9% 1.9% 1.9% (1): Assume US$60 mn intangible amortisation per quarter associated with Motorola/IBM x86 server. Source: Company data, the BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONAL™ service, Credit Suisse estimates Figure 2: Significant difference between consensus expectations and Lenovo's FY16 results (US$ mn) Low Mean Median High Revenues 43,017 55,963 58,545 65,088 Operating profit 684 1,402 1,436 1,774 Pre-tax profit 657 1,350 1,428 1,803 Net income 512 1,075 1,142 1,427 GAAP EPS (US$) $0.046 $0.099 $0.100 $0.130 Gross margin (%) 12.70% 13.70% 13.40% 15.70% Opex/sales (%) 11.1% 11.2% 10.9% 13.0% OPM (%) 1.6% 2.5% 2.5% 2.7% Source: the BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONAL™ service Consensus Figure 3: Lenovo forward P/E—trading at 16.4x vs the historical range of 11-18x 20.0x 18.0x 16.0x 14.0x 12.0x 10.0x 8.0x Jul-13 Jul-11 Jul-12 Jul-14 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Mar-12 Mar-11 Mar-13 Mar-14 Nov-11 Nov-12 Nov-13 Nov-14 Sep-11 Sep-12 Sep-13 Sep-14 May-11 May-12 May-13 May-14 Lenovo P/E Avg -2.0x std -1.0x std 1.0x std 2.0x std Source: the BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONAL™ service, Credit Suisse Lenovo Group Ltd (0992.HK / 992 HK) 2 07 November 2014 Reinstating coverage with OUTPERFORM We expect over the next 24 months, Lenovo will turn around both IBM x86 server and Motorola businesses to higher profitability than the market expectations, but also execute sooner on their targets given their track record (i.e., four to six quarters for Motorola and Giving credit to Lenovo's within a year for IBM x86 server). Results in the next two quarters (FY3Q15-Dec and track record and we are FY4Q15-Mar) are likely to be depressed; we have modelled accordingly. Overall, we expecting faster a turn- forecast Lenovo's group sales increase of 22%/16.5% and pre-tax profits of -10%/+44% in around for both IBM x86 FY15/16E to US$47.1 bn/US$54.9 bn and US$910 mn/US$1.3 bn, respectively. We server and Motorola expect IBM to add pre-tax profits (excluding amortisation) of US$134/US$410 mn with pre- tax margins of 6.2%/7.2% in FY15/16E, and Motorola to reduce US$337/$162 mn in pre- tax profits (excluding amortisation) with pre-tax margins of -12.0%/-2.6%. Lenovo expects US$250-300 mn in amortisation expense p.a. Figure 4: Lenovo closes IBM x86 server and Motorola in ten months; five US deals cleared with CFIUS since 2005 (US$) Close date Acquisition Deal Size Existing Cash Equity Debt issue Strategy April 2005 IBM PC $1,250 $694 $556 n.a. Becomes a global PC vendor, builds scale, globalised brand June 2011 NEC JV $219 $58 $161 n.a. Becomes the #1 PC vendor in Japan and drives scale August 2011 Medion $552 $479 $73 n.a. Enhances brand, channel, and scaling in Western Europe April 2012 Compal JV $150 $150 n.a.
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