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Lenovo Group (992 HK) Buy Technology - Hardware & Equipment Target Price: HKD14.80 Market Cap: USD16,049M Price: HKD11.20

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Lenovo Group (992 HK) Buy Technology - Hardware & Equipment Target Price: HKD14.80 Market Cap: USD16,049M Price: HKD11.20 Initiating Coverage, 11 June 2015 Lenovo Group (992 HK) Buy Technology - Hardware & Equipment Target Price: HKD14.80 Market Cap: USD16,049m Price: HKD11.20 Macro Risks 2 Acquisitions On Track To Drive Growth Growth . 2 0 Value . 02 0 . 03 0 We initiate coverage on Lenovo with a BUY and DCF-derived HKD14.80 . Lenovo Group (992 HK) 0 Price Close Relative to Hang Seng Index (RHS) TP (32% upside), implying 16x FY16F P/E. It is the world’s largest PC 0 14.2 131 brand and we believe it can replicate its PC successes in smartphones 0 13.7 128 and enterprise servers via newly-acquired Motorola Mobility and 13.2 124 System X. We forecast 22% recurring net profit CAGR for FY15F-18F on 12.7 121 slower but more diversified topline growth and cost synergies from the new businesses. 12.2 117 11.7 114 PC still getting stronger. While the personal computer (PC) market has 11.2 110 declined in recent years, PCs have evolved to become more mobile- 10.7 107 friendly. Lenovo Group (Lenovo) led the global PC market with a 20% 10.2 103 market share in 2014, and we expect further share gains as smaller PC 9.7 100 makers like Sony (6758 JP, NR), Fujitsu (6702 JP, NR) and Toshiba (6502 JP, NR) exit the market. We expect its PC group to still book low 9.2 96 180 160 single-digit revenue growth and solid cash flow. 140 120 M&A growth opportunities. The acquisitions of IBM System X (System 100 X) and Motorola Mobility were completed on 1 Oct and 1 Nov 2014 80 60 respectively. While the acquired businesses are still loss-making at the 40 20 pre-tax level in 4QFY15 (Mar), Lenovo has maintained its targets of Volm turning the mobile group profitable at the operating level within 4-6 14 15 15 14 14 14 - - - - - - quarters (c.1HFY17) and reaching USD5bn in revenue with the Oct Apr Jun Feb Dec Aug enterprise group and enhancing its operating profit margin. Source: Bloomberg Earnings growth speeds up. Driven by margins improvement from new products and the streamlining of costs from M&As, we expect Avg Turnover (HKD/USD) 519m/66.9m 32%/22%/18% recurring net profit growth in FY16F-18F respectively Cons. Upside (%) 21.4 from 22% in FY15. Our adjusted EPS numbers are much higher than the Upside (%) 32.1 Bloomberg consensus as, unlike them, we excluded non-cash M&A 52-wk Price low/high (HKD) 9.63 - 13.9 accounting charges. Free float (%) 58 Initiate coverage with BUY and HKD14.80 TP. Our TP is derived using Share outstanding (m) 11,109 DCF, which implies 16x FY16F P/E (slightly higher than 2SD above its Shareholders (%) past 3-year mean). We believe that DCF is the most appropriate Legend Holdings Corp 30.6 valuation as: i) it captures the long-term benefits of cost synergies from the Motorola and System X acquisitions, and ii) the group now has a Yang Yuanqing 6.7 more diversified and less cyclical revenue base. Google Inc 4.7 Key risks. Slower PC & smartphone replacement cycles, potential Share Performance (%) disruption from new technologies, fierce competition in the smartphone YTD 1m 3m 6m 12m market and the appreciation of the USD are all key risks. Absolute 9.8 (15.8) (3.8) 4.1 16.3 Forecasts and Valuations Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16F Mar-17F Mar-18F Relative (4.5) (13.7) (16.7) (10.6) 0.5 Total turnover (USDm) 38,707 46,296 53,355 55,627 58,053 Reported net profit (USDm) 817 829 1,004 1,304 1,534 Shariah compliant Recurring net profit (USDm) 817 997 1,324 1,610 1,894 Recurring net profit growth (%) 28.7 22.0 32.8 21.6 17.6 Recurring EPS (USD) 0.08 0.09 0.12 0.15 0.17 Christopher Tse +852 2103 9415 DPS (USD) 0.03 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.06 [email protected] Recurring P/E (x) 18.3 15.5 12.1 9.9 8.4 P/B (x) 4.99 3.93 3.42 2.88 2.45 Kong Yong Ng 852 2103 5844 P/CF (x) 10.2 57.2 6.1 6.5 5.9 [email protected] Dividend Yield (%) 2.1 2.4 2.9 3.7 4.4 EV/EBITDA (x) 8.26 8.94 6.49 5.12 4.77 Return on average equity (%) 28.8 23.4 22.9 25.4 25.3 Net debt to equity (%) net cash 0.7 net cash net cash net cash Our vs consensus EPS (adjusted) (%) 33.0 23.3 9.7 See important disclosures at the end of this report Source: Company data, RHB Powered by EFATM Platform 1 Lenovo Group (992 HK) 11 June 2015 Table of Content Investment Highlights 3 Valuation 4 Peer Comparison 5 Sensitivity Analysis And Key Risks 6 Earnings Outlook 7 Balance Sheet 13 Segmental Outlook 14 i. PC Group ii. Mobile Group iii. Enterprise Group Lenovo Products 25 Management Profile 30 Shareholding Structure 30 Financial Exhibits 32 SWOT Analysis 33 See important disclosures at the end of this report 2 Lenovo Group (992 HK) 11 June 2015 Investment Highlights A leading global PC brand. Lenovo leads the global PC market with a 19% market share in 1Q15. Its homegrown Lenovo smartphone brand was also among the Top 5 globally in terms of shipments in 2014. In Oct 2014, it successfully closed the acquisitions of Motorola from Google (GOOG US, NR) and the System X server product line from IBM (IBM US, NR), thereby expanding its existing mobile and enterprise businesses. Following the acquisition, Lenovo became third in terms of smartphone shipments and fourth in server shipments in 1Q15, possessing one of the most complete product portfolios in the consumer electronics and hardware space. It was listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in Feb 1994 as Legend Holdings. The group was then subsequently renamed as Lenovo after spinning off its product distribution division, Digital China (861 HK, BUY, TP: HKD15.44), in 2001. It is now a constituent of the Hang Seng Index (HSI). Margin enhancement from new products and cost integration. We expect Lenovo’s GPM to improve to 15.3%/15.5%/15.5% respectively in FY16-18, driven by new products from Motorola and System X. We estimate that the businesses of Motorola smartphones and System X servers both have GPMs of about 20%, above Lenovo’s own 13-14% GPM in FY13-14. In addition, as both Motorola and System X have cost structures that overlap with that of Lenovo’s, management is confident that it could turn the mobile group profitable at the operating level in 4-6 quarters (c.1H17) and enhance the operating margins of its enterprise group. Going forward, we expect pre-tax losses in those divisions to narrow through higher GPM and lower operating expenses via the consolidation of the group’s research and development (R&D) teams and shifting of higher-cost overseas manufacturing operations to lower-cost existing facilities in China. Strong execution ability. Lenovo possesses a world-class management team with a strong track record of absorbing new businesses into its existing lines. In 2004, it acquired ThinkPad PC from IBM and, along with its own Lenovo PC brand, grew its PC business into the largest player in the world. We believe it can replicate its past successes with Motorola and Server X. More diverse revenue base. Although we forecast only a mild 8% revenue CAGR in FY15-18, we believe the group’s revenue base could be less cyclical going forward. This is due to a more diverse revenue mix across the PC, mobile and enterprise groups in terms of products and geographic regions (China, Europe and the Americas). Earnings growth accelerates. We expect recurring net profit to expand at a 22% CAGR in FY15-18, similar to 22% in FY15. Our EPS projections are based on recurring net profit being much higher than the Bloomberg consensus, as we exclude non-cash M&A accounting charges (note that Bloomberg does not impute this). Initiate coverage with BUY and HKD14.80 TP. We set our TP using DCF (WACC: 10.1%, TG: 2%), implying 16x FY16F P/E. This is above PC peers HP’s 9x FY Oct- 15 and Asustek’s 11x FY Dec-14 P/Es. We believe this is reasonable as Lenovo is the market share leader in PCs and its EPS growth is outperforming that of its peers. Figure 1: Revenue and recurring net profit growth Figure 2: Gross & pre-tax margin trends 120% 18.0% Title: Title: Source: Source: 16.0% 100% 14.0% Please fill in the values above to have them entered in your report Please fill in the values above to have them entered in your report 80% 12.0% 10.0% 60% 8.0% 40% 6.0% 4.0% 20% 2.0% 0% 0.0% FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16F FY17F FY18F FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16F FY17F FY18F Revenue growth Recurring NP growth Gross margin Pretax margin Source: Company data, RHB Source: Company data, RHB See important disclosures at the end of this report 3 Lenovo Group (992 HK) 11 June 2015 Valuation We initiate coverage on Lenovo with BUY and a TP of HKD14.80. We derive our TP using DCF, with a 10.1% WACC and 2% TG, implying 16x FY16F P/E. We believe that DCF is the most appropriate valuation methodology, because: i.
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