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Research & Forecast Report RESEARCH & FORECAST REPORT PUGET SOUND REGION | Q1 2020 | OFFICE YOY YOY YOY YOY Class A Seattle Vacancy Rate Absorption SF Construction SF Rental Rate 7.7% FORECAST 2.14M FORECAST 6.99M FORECAST $55.41 FORECAST Overview Key Takeaways Q1 2020 Starts Strong, Ends with Uncertainty · Net absorption reached 2.1 million SF, owing to Amazon’s Belltown The first quarter of 2020 saw mixed results for the Puget Sound, as occupancies. strong market momentum encountered its first major obstacle in more · Direct vacant space fell 90 basis points regionwide over the year, than a decade. Consistent activity from large tech, e-commerce and reflecting demand from large tech and e-commerce tenants. other tenants continued to fuel leasing and absorb space in the first · When completed, current developments will bump Bellevue’s total office two months of the year, but hesitation related to COVID-19 restrictions inventory 14% and Seattle’s 7.4%. began to have an impact in the last weeks of March. Much of the positive · Class A average asking rates increased regionally, with the Bellevue results came from the completion and occupancy of two buildings on CBD’s 7.7% jump from Q1 2019 one of the biggest changes. Amazon’s Seattle campus, which boosted regional net absorption to 2.1 million SF for the quarter and further reduced vacancy. The average · Investment volume fell more than 86% following Q4 2019’s rush to close asking rate exceeded $55.00 per SF in both Seattle and Bellevue, transactions before the new excise tax. as rents continued to rise, especially for Class A CBD space. And, though the new excise tax stifled investment sales compared to Q4, Rental Rates new construction continued to advance for most of the quarter as did Q1 2020 Q4 QOQ Q1 YOY QTD 2019 Change 2019 Change proposals for additional new development, setting the stage for growth once business returns to normal. Seattle CBD, Class A $55.41 $55.13 0.5% $53.30 3.8% Seattle CBD, Class B $46.72 $46.77 -0.1% $45.55 2.5% Absorption, New Supply & Vacancy Trends Bellevue CBD, Class A $61.87 $61.32 0.9% $57.10 7.7% 2,500,000 12.0% Bellevue CBD, Class B $40.94 $40.61 0.8% $38.62 5.7% 2,000,000 10.0% Historic Comparison 1,500,000 8.0% Q1 2020 Q4 2019 Q1 2019 New Supply 1.35 0.98 0.38 1,000,000 6.0% (in millions) Absorption 2.14 0.95 -0.2 500,000 4.0% (in millions) 0 2.0% Vacancy 7.7% 7.6% 8.6% Quarterly Change 10 0 -100 -500,000 0.0% (basis points) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2017 2018 2019 2020 Under Construction 6.99 7.22 7.02 Absorption New Supply Total Vacancy (in millions) Notable Transactions SALES LEASES Tower 333 1130 Rainier Crestwood 503 6th Street S Rainier Square One Esterra Park $401,460,000 $26,750,000 Corporate Plaza Kirkland Bank of America Microsoft $967/SF $431/SF $23,575,000 Google 115,133 SF 246,638 SF $364/SF 136,000 SF RESEARCH & FORECAST REPORT PUGET SOUND REGION | Q1 2020 | OFFICE Supply With sublease vacancy measuring just 1.0% and direct vacancy at 6.7%, the Puget Sound office market remains challenged to accommodate the amount of demand from tenants of all sizes. Users needing more than 50,000 SF have limited options market-wide, with the Eastside offering just four blocks of that size. Smaller tenants may have more opportunities, but the cost of those options is high and the space quality low, driving many to locations outside the cities. Requirements for Eastside locations have the fewest choices, with just 5.2% of the inventory vacant overall. All five Puget Sound submarkets saw positive absorption in Q1, with Seattle and Bellevue accounting for nearly 88% of the overall total. In reflection of tenants’ preference for those two submarkets, construction there also continued to claim the majority share of the current development despite the delivery of nearly 607,000 SF of new properties this quarter. Demand Big tech and e-commerce continued to drive leasing in the Puget Sound in Q1 2020, with Microsoft and Google’s 382,000 SF of aggregate new commitments at Esterra Park in Redmond and 503 6th Street S in Kirkland, re- spectively, among the largest transactions completed. The new development at Rainier Square, long rumored to be in negotiations with a number of tenants, landed its first major occupant in Bank of America, which pre-leased 115,133 SF. Challenges associated with the fallout from the coronavi- rus restrictions could impact overall activity in the coming months, though common belief holds that tech and e-com- merce markets like the Puget Sound will be less affected than more diverse economies. In contrast to leasing, sales of regional office properties dropped 86% to $778.4 million or $763.83 per SF, indicating a return to normal investment The above graph was created to test demand in the Puget Sound market, given the current levels. Sales were predictably lower than the Q4 2019, development pipeline and a 10-year average of net absorption (removing Amazon’s many which ended a record-breaking year that was fueled by occupancies). While Amazon’s growth is inextricably linked to the region’s, there is still significant tax-avoidant transactions. demand from other occupiers and not enough development to satisfy demand beyond 2023. Outlook The fundamentals of the Puget Sound’s economy remain strong — with the exception of the challenges faced by the retail and hospitality sectors — providing some protection to the commercial real estate market both during and after the COVID-19 period. Corporate caution in understanding the forward progression of their business amid an unstable U.S. economic situation will likely result in a slower Q2 and Q3 than in past years. In addition, the designation of office construction as a non-essential activity will push back the delivery dates for much-needed new development, escalating the competition for space, driving vacancy down further, and potentially raising rents to levels seen in larger cities such as New York and San Francisco. Colliers International | Puget Sound Q1 2020 Office Report RESEARCH & FORECAST REPORT PUGET SOUND REGION | Q1 2020 | OFFICE Notable Deliveries Watershed Building Amazon Campus The Spring District Block 20 Block 16 333 Dexter Amazon Campus Block 21 SEATTLE BELLEVUE Notable Seattle Deliveries Size (SF) Submarket Developer % Leased Watershed Building 66,541 Ballard/U District Steven and Gray Associates/Shorenstein 85% Amazon Campus, Block 20* 1,100,000 Belltown/Denny Regrade Amazon 100% Amazon Campus, Block 21* 876,000 Belltown/Denny Regrade Amazon 100% 333 Dexter 639,984 Lake Union Kilroy Realty Corporation 95% Notable Bellevue Deliveries Size (SF) Submarket Developer % Leased The Spring District, Block 16 337,996 Suburban Bellevue Wright Runstad & Co. 100% *Owner-occupied, not included in inventory Colliers International | Puget Sound Q1 2020 Office Report RESEARCH & FORECAST REPORT PUGET SOUND REGION | Q1 2020 | OFFICE Development Pipeline REI at the Third & 555 108th Spring District Lenora Summit III 1165 Eastlake Bellevue Plaza Ave NE 2020 2021 2022 2023 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q1 Q3 Q2 Q4 Q1 Q2 Rainier Square Amazon 1001 Office Dexter Yard 1001 Office Washington Development Block 18 Towers East Towers West 1000 Size (SF) Developer Submarket Delivery Spring District Block 16 311,000 Wright Runstad & Co. Suburban Bellevue Q1 2020 Rainier Square Development 710,000 Wright Runstad & Co. Seattle CBD Q2 2020 Third & Lenora Tower 200,000 Martin Selig Belltown/Denny Regrade Q2 2020 Watershed Building 70,000 Stephen Grey & Associates Ballard/U District Q2 2020 5501 Lakeview 51,000 Gates Family/ Mt. Baker Holdings Kirkland Q3 2020 Fremont Crossing 60,000 Pastakia + Associates Queen Anne/Magnolia Q3 2020 Expedia HQ 220,000 Expedia Queen Anne/Magnolia Q3 2020 Spring District Block 24 160,000 Wright Runstad & Co. Suburban Bellevue Q4 2020 Amazon Tower IV 853,000 Amazon Belltown/Denny Regrade Q4 2020 Block 18 (Amazon) 388,000 Amazon Belltown/Denny Regrade Q4 2020 1015 2nd Avenue 180,000 Martin Selig Seattle CBD Q4 2020 Boren Office Lofts 115,000 Trammell Crow Seattle CBD Q4 2020 1165 Eastlake 100,000 Alexandria Real Estate Equities Lake Union Q4 2020 Summit III 377,000 Hines Bellevue CBD Q1 2021 Esterra Park 3 235,000 Capstone Partners 520 Corridor Q1 2021 Block 38 - Google 3 322,000 Vulcan Lake Union Q3 2021 The Jack 145,500 Urban Visions Pioneer Square/Waterfront Q3 2021 400 Westlake (Firestone) 200,000 Martin Selig Lake Union Q4 2021 Dexter Yard 500,000 BioMed Realty Lake Union Q4 2021 Cascadian (330 Yale) 211,000 Unico Lake Union Q4 2021 Kirkland Urban Phase II 265,000 Kirkland Commerce Center/Alhadeff Family Kirkland Q4 2021 Block 6 (124th Avenue NE) 325,000 Google Suburban Bellevue Q4 2021 1001 Towers 647,000 Trammell Crow Bellevue CBD Q1 2022 Google Phase III 136,000 Wright Runstad & Co. Kirkland Q2 2022 2301 7th Avenue 310,000 Onni Group Belltown/Denny Regrade Q2 2022 Bellevue Plaza 880,000 Vulcan Bellevue CBD Q4 2022 Washington 1000 546,000 Hudson Pacific Seattle CBD Q4 2022 555 108th Avenue NE 937,000 Vulcan Bellevue CBD Q1 2023 Colliers International | Puget Sound Q1 2020 Office Report Market Statistics - 20Q1 - Puget Sound Total Direct Direct Sublease Sublease Total Vacancy Vacancy Net Net Under Constr Class Inventory Vacant Vacancy Vacant Vacancy Vacant Rate Rate Absorp Absorp Constr Complete SF SF Rate SF Rate SF Current Previous Current YTD Current YTD Seattle Class A 48,932,700 2,431,097 5.0% 605,805.00 1.2% 3,036,902.00 6.2% 5.4% 1,123,338 1,123,338 3,621,365 1,016,015 Class B 26,777,314 1,678,395 6.3% 305,347.00 1.1% 1,983,742.00 7.4% 7.2% (86,374) (86,374)
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