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Sustainable Recovery Sustainable Recovery World Energy Outlook Special Report in collaboration with the International Monetary Fund INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY The IEA examines IEA member IEA association the full spectrum countries: countries: of energy issues including oil, gas Australia Brazil and coal supply and Austria China demand, renewable Belgium India energy technologies, Canada Indonesia electricity markets, Czech Republic Morocco energy efficiency, Denmark Singapore access to energy, Estonia South Africa demand side Finland Thailand management and France much more. Through Germany its work, the IEA Greece advocates policies Hungary that will enhance Ireland the reliability, Italy affordability and Japan sustainability of Korea energy in its 30 Luxembourg member countries, Mexico 8 association Netherlands countries and New Zealand beyond. Norway Poland Portugal Slovak Republic Spain Sweden Switzerland Turkey United Kingdom United States The European Commission also participates in the work of the IEA Please note that this publication is subject to specific restrictions that limit its use and distribution. The terms and conditions are available online at www.iea.org/t&c/ Source: IEA. All rights reserved. International Energy Agency Website: www.iea.org Foreword As it grapples with the unprecedented health emergency triggered by the Covid‐19 pandemic, the world is experiencing its worst economic shock since the 1930s. This is having a severe impact on employment and investment across all parts of the economy, including energy. Governments have taken the lead in providing urgent financial and economic relief to prevent the crisis from spiralling further downward. Today, attention is increasingly focusing on how to bring about an economic recovery that repairs the damage inflicted by the crisis while putting the world on a stronger footing for the future. Since the scale of the economic crisis began to emerge, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has been leading the calls for governments to make the recovery as sustainable and resilient as possible. This means immediately addressing the core issues of global recession and soaring unemployment – and doing so in a way that also takes into account the key challenge of building cleaner and more secure energy systems. At the IEA, we quickly re‐focused the work of our analytical teams across the Agency on the shocks caused by the crisis to global energy demand, assessing the impact across all major fuels including oil, gas, coal, electricity and renewables. We then quantified and examined the staggering effects in key areas, such as the unparalleled 20% plunge in global energy investment that is expected this year. And now, we are identifying the most effective measures available to governments as they consider their once‐in‐a‐lifetime recovery plans. The Sustainable Recovery Plan proposed in this report is the result. The Sustainable Recovery Plan is not intended to tell governments what they must do. It seeks to show them what they can do. Whether countries choose to follow the measures laid out in the plan remains their sovereign choice. Our plan – a combination of policy actions and targeted investments – offers a hugely encouraging picture of what the world can achieve despite the tremendous difficulties we face today. As they design economic recovery plans, policy makers are having to make enormously consequential decisions in a very short space of time. These decisions will shape economic and energy infrastructure for decades to come and will almost certainly determine whether the world has a chance of meeting its long‐term energy and climate goals. Our Sustainable Recovery Plan shows governments have a unique opportunity today to boost economic growth, create millions of new jobs and put global greenhouse gas emissions into structural decline. The IEA’s work is designed to provide the world’s top decision‐makers in government, industry and the investment community with the strongest possible data, analysis and options to enable them choose the best path forward. With this in mind, we are bringing all of these groups together at the IEA Clean Energy Transitions Summit on 9 July 2020 in an effort to identify how to step up actions that achieve real‐world results. A sustainable recovery is within our reach – I hope the grand coalition of global energy leaders we are assembling will seize this opportunity. Dr. Fatih Birol reserved Executive Director International Energy Agency rights All IEA. Foreword 3 reserved rights All IEA. Acknowledgements This study, a cross‐agency effort, was prepared by the World Energy Outlook team in co‐operation with all divisions in the Directorate of Sustainability, Technology and Outlooks, the Strategic Initiatives Office and the Directorate of Energy Markets and Sustainability. The study was designed and directed by Laura Cozzi, Chief Energy Modeller. The lead authors and co‐ordinators were: Christophe McGlade and Daniel Wetzel. Daniel Crow, Blandine Barreau and Davide D’Ambrosio were also part of the core group. Laszlo Varro, Chief Economist, provided essential guidance. The International Monetary Fund, in particular Benjamin Hunt and Keiko Honjo, partnered with the IEA to provide the macroeconomic analysis. The other main authors were: Zakia Adam (subsidies and data support), Yasmine Arsalane (power), Heymi Bahar (renewables), Stéphanie Bouckaert (modelling co‐ordination), Arthur Contejean (access), Elisabetta Cornago (transport), Amrita Dasgupta (transport), Connor Donovan (power), Araceli Fernandez Pales (innovation lead), Timothy Goodson (buildings lead), Maxine Jordan (buildings), Vanessa Koh (power), Kevin Lane (buildings), Pharoah Le Feuvre (biofuels), Lilly Lee (transport), Olivier Lejeune (macro analysis), Sara Moarif (context), Samantha McCulloch (innovation), Kieran McNamara (grids), Ariane Millot (buildings), Sarbojit Pal (transport), Leonardo Paoli (transport), Sebastian Papapanagiotou (grids), Claudia Pavarini (power), Daniele Perugia (grids), Apostolos Petropoulos (transport lead), Alison Pridmore (urban infrastructure), Uwe Remme (innovation), Arnaud Rouget (access), Hugo Salamanca (industry), Andreas Schroeder (industry lead), Leonie Staas (jobs), Brent Wanner (power lead). The study also relied on support from across the entire World Energy Outlook team. Teresa Coon and Eleni Tsoukala provided essential support. Edmund Hosker carried editorial responsibility. Debra Justus was the copy‐editor. Valuable comments and feedback were provided by other senior management and numerous other colleagues within the IEA. In particular Mechthild Wörsdörfer, Keisuke Sadamori, Alessandro Blasi, Joel Couse, Paolo Frankl, Peter Fraser, Rebecca Gaghen, Tim Gould, Timur Gül, Brian Motherway, Masatoshi Sugiura, Lucila Arboleya Sarazola and Peter Janoska. Thanks go to the IEA’s Communication and Digitalisation Office for their help in producing the report and website materials, particularly to Jad Mouawad, Jethro Mullen, Astrid Dumond, Christopher Gully, Isabelle Nonain‐Semelin, Julie Puech and Therese Walsh. Diana Browne provided essential support to the production process. IEA’s Office of the Legal Counsel, Office of Management and Administration and Energy Data Centre provided assistance throughout the preparation of the report. Valuable input to the analysis was provided by David Wilkinson (independent consultant). reserved rights All IEA. Acknowledgements 5 The work could not have been achieved without the support and co‐operation provided by many government bodies, organisations and companies worldwide, notably: Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, Japan; and Mistry of the Environment, Land and Sea, Italy on smart grids and power system modernisation. Activities within the IEA Clean Energy Technologies Programme provided valuable support to this report. A webinar and an online consultation was held at the end of March 2020 in which participants offered valuable insights, feedback and data for this analysis. We are grateful for their input. A number of senior government officials and international experts provided input and reviewed preliminary report drafts. Comments and suggestions that were of great value for the report were received from: Lydia Shawel Abebe World Health Organization (WHO) Angeline Afanoukoe Nexans Doug Arent US National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) Jason Babik Westinghouse Dr. Georg Baeuml Volkswagon Richard Baron 2050 Pathways Platform Jim Barrett Barrett Economics Harmeet Bawa ABB Power Grids Sama Bilbao y Leon Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA) Rina Bohle Zeller Vestas, Denmark Jason Bordoff Columbia University, United States Nils Borg European Council for an Energy Efficient Economy Alex Bowen London School of Economics and Political Science William Brent Power for All Sam Brock American Wind Energy Association Mark Brownstein Environmental Defense Fund, United States Simon Buckle Organisation for Economic Co‐operation and Development (OECD) Nick Butler Kings College London Sally Cairns University of Leeds Ben Caldecott University of Oxford Julie Cammell Global Off‐Grid Lighting Association Pantelis Capros E3Modelling Anne‐Sophie Cerisola United Nations Russel Conklin US Department of Energy Beth Copanas RES Paula Coussy IFP Energies Nouvelles Francois Dassa EDF reserved Brian Dean Sustainable Energy for All rights All IEA. 6 World Energy Outlook 2020 | Special Report Nicolas Di Sbroiavacca Fundación Bariloche Navroz Dubash Centre for Policy Research, India Candice El‐Asmar Permanent Delegation of Australia to the OECD David
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