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Stern Daily Energy Update 6-14-21.Indd Trevor Reinesch Fuels Business Development Manager Email: [email protected] Phone: 605.680.4194 Daily Energy Update 6-14 A Return to the Air Total airplane fl ights tracked on radar are up to about 85% of pre-pandemic levels. The most recent 7-day moving average of DIESEL PRICE RISK: Long term fl at commercial fl ights stood at 84K/day, up from 44K/day last year price, high with softer rack basis but still below 2019 levels of 123K/day. Business and international RECOMMENDATIONS: travel are the weakest categories, but are improving and expected • Hold already bought future to return by 2022. contracts • Contract 22/23 needs GASOLINE PRICE RISK: Summer 21 prices expected higher, Con- tract summer 2022 RECOMMENDATIONS: • Low inventory, book summer “This is a general recommendation, contact me for your specifi c situation” News • A Chinese nuclear power plant is in the news today as built PROPANE PRICE RISK: Higher on up radioactive gases are giving tight inventory and strong exports operators problems after RECOMMENDATIONS: a maintenance period and 120% of contract volume needs subsequent startup. During the bought with option buy or protec- shutdown process, nuclear reactor tion for uncovered long positions. byproducts form gases that can Use additional limited loss collar for create problems. Sometimes blowout protection. the gases are vented o in This is a general recommendation, contact me for your specifi c situation” small permissible levels. This case seems to be pushing the limits of what is acceptable and Market Prices Last Change challenging our trust of the Chinese government when they say NEW YORK HARBOR ULSD July 2021$ 2.126 $0.006 everything is fi ne. NEW YORK HARBOR ULSD August 2021$ 2.129 $0.005 RBOB GASOLINE July 2021$ 2.188 $0.002 • Royal Dutch Shell is looking to sell its largest US oilfi eld assets, RBOB GASOLINE August 2021$ 2.1889 $0.003 likely a $10 billion dollar divestment of Permian Basin assets. E-MINI S&P 500 June 2021 4246.8 1.00 US DOLLAR INDEX$ 90.43 ($0.130) These funds would then be spent on “low carbon” initiatives in CRUDE OIL July 2021$ 71.49 $0.580 their quest for net-zero carbon emissions by 2050. Hopefully BRENT CRUDE August 2021$ 73.23 $0.540 Conway Propane$ 0.948 $0.005 it is not lost on activists that when a major oil company has Group 3 - ULSD Basis$ (0.013) $0.000 to divest these type of assets, buyers are likely to have higher Chicago - ULSD Basis$ 0.015 $0.000 methane emissions and the potential for orphan wells increases Group 3 - Suboctane Gasoline Basis$ (0.080) $0.000 Chicago - CBOB Regular Basis$ (0.070) $0.000 substantially. This material should be construed as the solicita on of trading strategies and/or services provided by the FCM Division of INTL FCStone Financial Inc., or INTL FCStone Markets, LLC (“IFM”), as noted in this presenta on. These materials have been created for a select group of individuals, and are intended to be presented with the proper context and guidance. Informa on contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. These materials represent the opinions and viewpoints of the author, and do not necessarily refl ect the viewpoints and trading strategies employed by the FCM Division on INTL FCStone Financial Inc. or IFM. The trading of deriva ves such as futures, op ons, and over-the-counter (“OTC”) products or “swaps” may not be suitable for all investors. Deriva ves trading involves risk of loss and past fi nancial results are not necessarily indica ve of future performance. Any hypothe cal examples given are exactly that and no representa on is being made that any person will or is likely to achieve profi ts or losses based on those examples. The FCM Division of INTL FCStone Financial Inc. is not responsible for any redistribu on of this material by third par es, or any trading decisions taken by persons not intended to view this material. This material does not cons tute an individualized recommenda on, or take into account the par cular trading objec ves, fi nancial situa ons, or needs of individual customers. Contact designated personnel from the FCM Division of INTL FCStone Financial Inc. for specifi c trading advice to meet your trading preferences or goals. All references to and discussion of OTC products or swaps are made solely on behalf of IFM, a member of the NFA and provisionally registered with the CFTC as a swap dealer. IFM’s products are designed only for individuals or fi rms who qualify under CFTC rules as an ‘Eligible Contract Par cipant’ (“ECP”) and who have been accepted as customers of IFM. Reproduc on without authoriza on is forbidden. © Copyright 2020. All rights reserved..
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