INSTITUTT FOR FORETAKSØKONOMI INSTITUTT FOR FORETAKSØKONOMI DEPARTMENT OF BUSINESS AND MANAGEMENT SCIENCE DEPARTMENT OF BUSINESS AND MANAGEMENT SCIENCE Norges Handelshøyskole NHH Tlf/Tel: +47 55 95 90 00 FOR 13 2018 Helleveien 30 Faks/Fax: +47 55 95 91 00 ISSN: 1500-4066 Norwegian School of Economics NO-5045 Bergen
[email protected] October 2018 Norway www.nhh.no Discussion paper Discussion paper What is wrong with IRV? BY Eivind Stensholt 20.09.18 What is wrong with IRV? BY Eivind Stensholt Norwegian School of Economics Abstract Struggles over the single-seat preferential election method IRV, Instant Runoff Voting, (a.k.a. AV, Alternative Vote or RCV, Ranked-Choice Voting) go on in many arenas: legislatures, courts, websites, and scholarly journals. Monotonicity failures, i.e. elections (preference distributions) that may allow the startling tactical voting of Pushover or its reverse, has come to the forefront. An analysis of 3-candidate elections concludes that monotonicity failures, while not rare, are hard to predict and risky to exploit; it also explains the scarcity of evidence for effects on election results. A more unfortunate possibility is the No-Show accident; the number of ballots with preference order XYZ grows beyond a critical size and cause Z to win instead of Y. An analysis concludes that this must happen often enough to justify a modification of the rules. Pictograms and constellation diagrams are visualization tools that organize the set of possible elections efficiently for the analysis, which obtains explicit classification of elections where Pushover or a No-Show accident may occur or may already have occurred, and of bounds for the number of voters that must be involved.