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Greenness of Stimulus Index

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Greenness of Stimulus Index February 2021 Greenness of Stimulus Index An assessment of COVID-19 stimulus by G20 countries and other major economies in relation to climate action and biodiversity goals • Addition of the Nordic countries Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway and Sweden to the index. Greenness • An increase in the total quantity of measured stimulus to US$14.9 trillion, from US$13.0 trillion. of Stimulus This increase is driven by the United States’ US$900 billion bipartisan stimulus bill signed into law in Index December, Japan’s December US$606 billion stimulus, and the United Kingdom’s US$71 billion The Greenness of Stimulus Index (GSI) assesses new stimulus package. There were also increases the effectiveness of the COVID-19 stimulus efforts in stimulus packages in France (US$587 billion to by G20 countries and ten other nations in ensuring US$612 billion), Australia (US$176 billion to US$188 an economic recovery that takes advantage of billion), Russia (US$117 billion to USS$129 billion), sustainable growth opportunities, and builds Italy (US$564 billion to US$574 billion), Canada resilience through the protection of the climate (from US$391 billion to US$400 billion), Germany and biodiversity. (by US$5 billion), India (by US$2 billion), and Turkey (by US$1 billion), plus the addition of the five new It provides a method to gauge the current impact Nordic countries (US$176 billion total). of the COVID-19 responses, to track countries’ progress over time, and to identify and recom- • Improvements to some index scores. Notably, the mend measures for improving the effectiveness United States and Canada have dramatically improved, of those responses. with China and India also leveraging new packages and policies into increased scores. Overall, 17 countries This assessment is updated regularly – please use improved their GSI scores in this edition, while only the latest version. The policies in this release are four countries’ scores decreased. This reflects momen- current as of 1 February 2021. The previous release tum towards greener stimulus as countries move from was published in December 2020. rescue to recovery, but it is also a function of the more positive underlying baselines of countries that This note is part of a series looking at economic released new stimulus since the December edition. responses to COVID-19. Other notes relate to corporate bailouts, international assistance flows • Major new analysis of the United States. into developing countries and job-creating fiscal The country passed a US$900 billion stimulus stimulus. This work was undertaken by Vivid package in December and a sweeping set of Economics as part of the Finance for Biodiversity Executive Orders since President Biden’s inaugura- (F4B) initiative. tion. Currently, a US$1.9 trillion package is making its way through Congress. Biden has also pledged If you have any questions or comments, please to implement a US$1.7 trillion Climate Plan. This contact us at [email protected] report considers all of these developments. The legislation and directives already passed raise the GSI score from -53 to -17. Should the $1.9 trillion Biden American Rescue Plan be signed into law in its form as of 8 February 2021, the GSI score would improve slightly to -15. Implementing the Biden New to Climate Plan would vault the United States’ score to +58, launching the country from 15th to 2nd in this release our ranking (behind only Denmark and ahead of This update of the index incorporates significant the EU) and serving as a model for how invest- new information that has become available since ment-driven growth and regulatory change can the previous release in December 2020, including create jobs, improve productivity, reduce emissions the latest announcements on stimulus flows, and protect nature. deregulation and environmental policies. It also contains two features that spotlight the United • Investigation of the United States Federal Reserve’s States, including an analysis of the potential impact corporate asset purchase programme reveals over of President Joe Biden’s proposed $1.7 trillion US$587 million being directed towards companies Climate Plan, and a review of the effect on nature at high risk of adversely affecting nature and climate, and climate of the US Federal Reserve’s activities including through greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, to stablise the economy. Altogether, this release deforestation and plastic pollution – nearly 10% of includes the following highlights: its overall corporate bond purchases to date. This GSI includes three special features on the United States, including an analysis of bond-buy- ing actions taken by the US Federal Reserve, the potential impact of the Biden Climate Plan and the impact of the Biden American Rescue Plan, which is making its way through Congress at the time of publication. December’s stimulus and January’s Executive Orders raise the United States’ GSI score significantly. Biden’s $1.9 trillion Ameri- can Rescue Plan would only slightly improve further the score, as tackling climate change is not its focus. However, analysis of Biden’s $1.7 trillion Climate Plan would substantially strengthen the country’s score. On the other hand, the United States Federal Reserve’s corporate bond purchase programme has allocated significant capital to companies with high risk of contributing to climate change, deforestation and plastic pollu- tion. New analysis shows that the Fed has acquired more than US$587 million in corporate bonds from such companies, compared to overall corporate bond purchases of approximately US$6 billion to date. Though less visible than govern- ment fiscal stimulus, central bank actions like these have meaningful capacity to reinforce negative trends – or pave the way for greener recoveries. Emerging economies most dependent on envi- Regardless of economic structure or past envi- ronmentally-intensive sectors and without strong ronmental performance, each country has the regulatory oversight have the biggest task to opportunity to steer its stimulus package to turn their stimulus green, and have so far failed support nature and the climate. Across to step up. China, India and Mexico have announcements to date, a clear set of tools is announced stimulus measures that will damage emerging to boost the economy in the short- and the environment, while stimulus funding long-term, while also accelerating the transition to announced by South Africa and Russia largely a more sustainable future. These tools fall into the reinforces the existing damaging impacts of their following broad categories: environmentally-intensive sectors. Indonesia and Brazil are pushing environmentally damaging • Corporate bailouts with green strings attached Executive outcomes, by supporting high-carbon industry and energy, and unsustainable agriculture that • Investment in nature-based solutions, such as destroys biodiverse habitats. To manage the tropical rainforest conservation and sustainable COVID-19 crisis while protecting and rebuilding summary agriculture nature at the same time, these countries must instead hardwire environmental actions into their • Loans and grants for green investments stimulus measures. The world’s leading economies have announced • Subsidies or tax reductions for green products, economic stimulus packages that will pump Argentina, Saudi Arabia and Turkey have made and the removal of subsidies for polluters approximately US$4.6 trillion directly into sectors little attempt to divert stimulus towards green that have a large and lasting impact on carbon initiatives. Generally, their stimulus packages have • Green R&D subsidies emissions and nature, namely agriculture, indus- underpinned existing poor environmental perfor- try, waste, energy and transport, but less than mance. Targeted measures have supported pollut- • Reinforcing environmental regulation, US$1.8 trillion has been green. These flows com- ers in the Turkish transport sector, and non-renew- and avoiding deregulation pare with a total stimulus to date of US$14.9 trillion, able energy in both Argentina and Saudi Arabia. and present an opportunity to support these sectors through the COVID-19 crisis, while also The most recently added countries to the GSI – boosting global resilience to mounting climate and the five Nordic countries – have contrasting biodiversity risks. The Greenness of Stimulus Index outcomes. Denmark leads the global league table (GSI) shows that governments to date have with a score of 78 and Sweden ranks 7th with a largely failed to harness this opportunity, though score of 21. These scores are largely due to their a select few are rising to meet the challenge. strong underlying baselines, as well as stimulus measures that commit money to energy efficiency, Announced stimulus to date will have a net nega- green research and development (R&D), and a tive environmental impact in 15 of the G20 coun- dedicated nature and biodiversity allocation. tries and economies, and in five of the ten other Finland performs well with a GSI score of 18, analysed countries. Despite achieving the largest despite its underlying negative baseline, due in increase in its score in this edition of the GSI, the part to public transit measures, climate R&D United States continues to lag behind other wealthy investment and nature conservation. On the flip nations. Australia, Italy and Japan join them on the side, Iceland’s score is -33, driven by a poor net negative side, owing largely to the support they baseline and measures that prioritise unconditional provide to existing environmentally-intensive sectors industry support over environmental protection. with negative environmental impact, even though Norway’s position is 25th, with a score of -67. While their scores also improved in this edition due to Norway introduced a Green Transition plan and actions to restore nature and mitigate climate accompanying measures, these were outweighed change. The economies analysed comprised the by its unconditional airline bailouts, support for the G20 plus Colombia, Denmark, Finland, Iceland, fossil fuel industry without any green strings Norway, the Philippines, Singapore, Spain, attached, and economic stimulus that perpetuated Sweden and Switzerland.
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