Cynulliad Cenedlaethol Cymru / National Assembly for Wales Pwyllgor yr Economi, Seilwaith a Sgiliau/ Economy, Infrastructure and Skills Committee Masnachfraint Rheilffyrdd a chyflwyno Metro / Rail Franchise and the Metro Ymateb gan Ffederasiwn Busnesau Bach / Evidence from Federation of Small Businesses

23rd February 2017

Russell George AM Economy, Infrastructure and Skills Committee National Assembly for Wales Pierhead Street Cardiff CF99 1NA

Dear Russell

RE: Rail Franchise & the Metro

FSB Wales welcomes the opportunity to contribute to the Economy, Infrastructure and Skills Committee inquiry into the future of the Wales and Borders Rail franchise and the South East Wales Metro.

FSB Wales is the authoritative voice of businesses in Wales. With 10,000 members, a Welsh Policy Unit, two regional committees and twelve branch committees; FSB Wales is in constant contact with business at a grassroots level. It undertakes regular online surveys of its members as well as a biennial membership survey on a wide range of issues and concerns facing small business.

In order to inform the 2016 National Assembly elections, FSB Wales commissioned a number of work-streams to build an evidence-base around the needs of Wales’ smaller business. One of the areas of focus was transport and infrastructure. Professor Stuart Cole produced a report into the needs of smaller firms in relation to transport entitled Moving Wales Forward. A copy of the report is attached for the Committee’s reference.

The following key themes were highlighted in the report:  The majority of FSB Wales members surveyed judged their car/van as being the most important mode of transport. However, around 10 per cent said that trains were an important mode of transport for their business.  For business users to make greater use of trains, four priorities areas were identified. They were; lower fares, increased network coverage, increased service frequencies and better integration of public transport services and ticketing. This was seen as key to model shift.  Issues of quality were of significant importance to many business users. For instance, many business users would like to see their journey (particularly longer journeys) as taking place in something more similar to a mobile office environment. However, due to issues such as overcrowding and lack of services such as on- board Wi-Fi, this is presently unattainable across much of the network.  Pursuing greater integration of public transport with services and the economic environment is crucial. The concept used in our research was Information + Interchange + Investment + Imagination = Integration.

FSB Wales would like to see the next Wales and Borders franchise focus on the themes highlighted above. This is also relevant to the discussion around the Metro, specifically about integrating the various modes of transport. In particular, the next franchisee should set out the level of investment needed to reduce overcrowding, improve the current rolling stock used in Wales and increasing the frequency of services.

Ff/T 029 2074 7406 C/A 1 Cleeve House, Swyddfa Gofrestredig | Registered Office: National Federation of Self Employed and Small Businesses Limited, E [email protected] Lambourne Crescent, Sir Frank Whittle Way, Blackpool Business Park, Blackpool, FY4 2FE

W fsb.wales Caerdydd, CF14 5GP Cofrestrwyd yn Lloegr Rhif | Registered in England: 1263540

Furthermore, the use of the transport estate should become a part of wider town centre regeneration discussions. For instance, many train stations in Wales have excess capacity in terms of building that could be used innovatively as business incubation space or retail space for new independent businesses.

This could also be applied to the supplier opportunities the Wales and Borders franchise offers. For instance, the next franchisee could examine increasing the proportion of Welsh products offered to customers, or ensure that local businesses are able to occupy retail space in stations as opposed to larger chains.

I hope you find the comments above of interest to your inquiry. Please do not hesitate to contact FSB Wales should you require any further information.

Yours sincerely

Janet Jones Wales Policy Chair Federation of Small Businesses Wales

Ff/T 029 2074 7406 C/A 1 Cleeve House, Swyddfa Gofrestredig | Registered Office: National Federation of Self Employed and Small Businesses Limited, E [email protected] Lambourne Crescent, Sir Frank Whittle Way, Blackpool Business Park, Blackpool, FY4 2FE

W fsb.wales Caerdydd, CF14 5GP Cofrestrwyd yn Lloegr Rhif | Registered in England: 1263540

MOVING WALES FORWARD

Published: May 2016 Professor Stuart Cole fsb.wales

CONTENTS

FOREWORD 2

PART 1: THE CHALLENGE OF ROAD TRANSPORT 3

PART 2: BEYOND THE CAR 16

CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS 26

REFERENCES / BIBLIOGRAPHY 27

DISCUSSIONS AND ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS 32

1 FOREWORD FOREWORD

Transport is a key issue facing FSB This report looks at what measures members across the length and can be put in place if we are to breadth of Wales. move towards a better and more integrated transport system that Whether they are based in Cardiff, better meet the needs of all types Cardigan or Conwy, businesses of businesses in every part of often rely on getting people or Wales. goods to the right place at the right time. I very much hope that it will lead to a more considered discussion of But for businesses in many parts of transport policy here; one which will Wales, achieving that can be a real encourage policymakers to think challenge, with the limitations of beyond any one part of Wales. current transport provision all too apparent. It is with that in mind that From my many discussions with our we asked Wales’ foremost transport members I know that transport is expert Professor Stuart Cole to an issue for businesses across the undertake this report for us. whole of Wales, and it is essential that we develop a transport As part of the work he has system that better supports local undertaken we gathered the economies in every part of our views of our members from across nation. Wales, getting them to share their experiences of Wales’ transport Janet Jones system. FSB Wales Policy Chair

And while it comes as no surprise to us that we have many members whose business means that they need to use road transport, there are many who would make greater use of public transport if it better met the needs of their business.

About the author: Professor Stuart Cole BA, MSc, FCILT, FICE, FRSA is one of Wales’ foremost experts in transport and economic policy, with almost 40 years of experience spanning government, local government, private sector, and academic roles. He has served as an advisor to the Welsh Government’s Minister for Economy, Science and Transport on active travel and public transport, is a member of the Great Western Railway Advisory Board, and is Emeritus Professor of Transport at the University of South Wales. He was awarded a CBE in 2012.

2 PART 1: THE CHALLENGE OF ROAD TRANSPORT PART 1 : THE CHALLENGE OF ROAD TRANSPORT

This report presents current within and between modes should All freight and goods traffic was trends in transport infrastructure be pursued. excluded from the survey as the and usage in Wales and critically network at present does not examines current government The most relevant argument which provide for much of that to be policy. suggests major road building may moved other than by road freight be the wrong approach is evidence transport. The complaint most often heard from the Department for Transport’s from businesses, small and large, (DfT) traffic forecast scenarios. Small businesses in Wales use the is that the roads are getting Welsh traffic flow data and speed car more than any other mode of worse and congestion is having maps show average speeds on transport (FSB, Wales 2014) and an adverse effect on business most roads at a level just below their views of Welsh Government efficiency. This report asks whether the legal limit. Lower speeds are transport policies and expenditure that is really the issue? If so, then found on single carriageway roads reflect this. could we reduce congestion by compared with dual carriageway making part, or all, of our passenger roads or motorways as would When small businesses were asked journeys by means other than the be expected. Evidence in this what the Welsh Government’s top car - by bus, train, taxi, walking, or report suggests that if equivalent priority should be, most called for cycling or some combination (called levels of comfort to the car could investment in road infrastructure, integrated travel) of them all? be provided via other forms of better traffic management and transport – bus, rail, cycling, walking improved rural transport. There is insufficient space in – travellers could be persuaded to urban areas to create large-scale change mode. The impact of road infrastructure other than at congestion high-cost levels in terms of land Modal Split purchase and construction. Until There is a general lack of reliable The 2014 modal split (Figure 1.1) the 1990s, motorway construction financial data on the impact of an for travellers taken from the Office frequently involved physically inefficient transport network on of National Statistics (ONS) data dividing communities and business success and on costs. for Wales and from the FSB Wales demolishing existing homes – a Both the FSB and the CBI have member survey (FSB 2014) showed good example of this being Port surveyed members and found the car / light van as by far the pre- Talbot. More recently, the adverse that an evaluation of financial dominant mode of travel (74.2% and environmental consequences of consequences can be extrapolated 81.0% respectively). Allowing for large-scale road construction have from survey data. But it was also sample error these two figures may become unacceptable to many. found that an accurate figure of the be regarded as similar. Complaints degree by which costs increased about the road system may be a as a result of poor infrastructure or Clearly, a policy of road building result of it being used the most and road delays is difficult to calculate in to tackle perceived problems of its problems being most familiar to terms of individual companies. congestion has to be rethought. those travellers in the survey. Instead, policy options involving A leading Welsh road haulage public transport investment, company (Owens 2014) put investment in active travel and the the costs it faced into separate integration of people movement categories:

3 MOVING WALES FORWARD

• Congestion with more wear and Figure 1.1 Modal Split Work Travel tear on mechanical items on their Total number of employed persons: 1,363,615 lorries (e.g. gearbox from different speeds and changing gear); Mode % ONS FSB • Increased drivers’ hours and the consequent costs of additional Home workers 5.4 drivers or delays on statutory rest and off road stops. This was Train 2.1 9.8 not a criticism of the regulations per se but their consequence Bus 4.6 9.8 on costs from increased driver journey time resulting from poor Taxi 0.5 infrastructure; • Extra vehicles required to M/cycle 0.6 maintain a schedule and meet demand thus incurring extra costs; Car / van 74.2 81.0 • Contracts turned down because Cycle 1.4 of additional vehicles required thus losing turnover. Walk 10.6 4.1 Businesses were asked (FSB Other 0.6 Wales survey 2014) how transport problems affect them. The biggest Sources: ONS: National Transport Plan (2014) / Census 2011 Office of National Statistics – Primary mode of impacts were financial with reduced travel to work). FSB: Federation of Small Business Wales Survey (2014). Based on Q2 How important is each turnover (35%), reduced profits of the following methods of transport your business operations? (43%), and fewer customers (35%), factors which reflect one another but might also be a part of the The FSB Wales 2014 survey Criticisms of the road overall reduction in the purchase of findings and comments highlight network goods and services resulting from issues such as where business the general economic downturn takes place, the impact on cost From the 2014 FSB Wales survey, since 2008. Increased costs base, and transport as a factor the business view of the road affected 52% of businesses, and in the decisions about business network was a negative one. this partially reflects comments / site closures and staff layoffs. The poor state of repair, traffic made in respect of the road However, there is a limit which has congestion and delays resulting infrastructure with factors such to be placed on the causal link from road works were the most as increased journey times and between transport network quality cited factors. increased vehicle maintenance or capacity and business success costs. or failure. The evidence is not Much of the criticism (FSB Wales conclusive. survey, 2014) of the transport For a small number of respondents network in Wales relates to traffic it led to the closure of the business As the car is seen as the ‘crucial’ congestion resulting in lower or branch (4%), reduction in the mode (81%) and the Census / speeds and longer journey times number of business vehicles (7%), National Transport Plan (NTP, on major roads. However the Welsh and a reduction in the range of 2014) shows it to represent 74% of Government road maps (Figures goods / services (9%). commuting trips it can be assumed 1.2, 1.3, 1.4) show major routes such that it is this mode which is most as the A55, M4 / A48 / A40 with The crucial issue is the ability to criticised. But the traffic speed average speeds over an 18 – hour trade effectively in the marketplace. maps do not support this argument day of 60 – 70 mph. The maximum except in peak periods. national speed limit is 70 mph.

4 PART 1: THE CHALLENGE OF ROAD TRANSPORT

On single carriageway roads the Figure 1.2:Figure Map 2.23: showing Map showing journey journey speeds speeds on primary on main roads -roads North Wales – North Wales average speeds will be lower at 40 – 60 mph, but there the national speed limit is 60 mph. The road Holyhead Llandudno network is therefore performing Colwyn Bay A55 Conwy A55 very efficiently in terms of speed and journey time on inter-urban Chester Caernarfon A5 A470 Mold and rural routes. Of course there A483 will be peak time pinch points in A487 Betws- y-Coed Wrexham the morning (07.30 – 09.00) and Corwen A5 evening (16.30 – 18.00) when Llangollen A494 capacity is insufficient for the traffic Bala flows. A470 Oswestry

Dolgellau These arise frequently on the A55 A483 Welspool A470 at the Britannia bridge over the A487 Shrewsbury Menai Straits, at Llanfairfechan and Machynlleth 40 – 60mph 40- 60 mph60 – 70mph60 - 70 mph at the Ewloe (A494) and Post House Maps created by Emmajane Mantle / Wrexham bypass junction (A483). Source: Derived from National Transport Plan 2015, Consultation Document, Welsh Government On the South Wales primary route the intensity of the morning peak causes heavy traffic congestion between the J24 (M4 / A449) and J26, partly but not Figure 1.3:Figure Map 2.23: showing Map showing journey journey speeds on primaryon main roads roads - Mid Wales – Mid Wales entirely caused by the capacity constraints at Brynglas Tunnel; Dolgellau A483 J32 (A470) primary route into Welspool A470 the capital; J33 on the M4 and A487 Shrewsbury Machynlleth the A4232 (the Cardiff Southern Distributor Road (SDR); at J40 – J42 Newtown (Baglan / Port Talbot) and at A487 A470 Aberystwyth A44 J46 – J47 (Llangyfelach and Penllergaer). A470 A483 Aberaeron A485 Rhayader To a lesser extent slow-moving Tregaron Llandrindod Wells A487 Builth Walls traffic occurs on the westbound Lampeter Aberteifi A483 A482 Llanwrtyd A470 A48 at Carmarthen; Oystermouth Wells Road, Swansea; at Penglais Hill into 40 – 60mph 40 - 60 mph 60 – 70mph60 - 70 mph Aberystwyth and at several other Maps created by Emmajane Mantle local locations. Source: Derived from National Transport Plan 2015, Consultation Document, Welsh Government

However, the speed maps suggest that average speeds on primary routes in Wales (and those most complained about) are generally at an acceptable level.

5 MOVING WALES FORWARD

There is also a belief that the trend Figure 1.4: MapFigure showing 2.24: Map showing journey journey speeds on primary on roadsmain - South roads Wales – South Wales of road traffic in Wales (Figure 1.5) A470 A483 Aberaeron A485 Rhayader is one of growth: historically from Tregaron Llandrindod Wells A487 Builth Walls around 22bn kilometres in 1993 Lampeter Aberteifi A483 A482 Llanwrtyd A470 to a peak in 2007 of around 27 bn Wells kilometres. However, since then the A487 Hereford A478 figure has plateaued mirroring the Fishguard Brecon A40 A40 trends in car ownership (Figure 1.7). A40 Llandeilo Camarthen St Clears Haverfordwest A40 A48 A483 A4076 Merthyr Abergavenny This trend is not peculiar to Wales. Tydfil Milford Haven A465 A477 M4 A40 Llanelli A465 A similar pattern has taken place Pembroke Port Talbot A449 in many other major advanced Dock A470 Swansea economy countries where car M4 M4 Newport A48(M) usage has plateaued or declined Bridgend Cardiff - Germany, Australia, France, UK, A4232 United States and Japan (Figure 1.6). Cardiff Wales Airport

40 – 60mph 40 - 60 mph60 – 70mph60 - 70 mph The conclusion which can be drawn Maps created by Emmajane Mantle from the evidence presented above Source: Derived from National Transport Plan 2015, Consultation Document, Welsh Government is that while car usage may not have peaked, the rate of growth has slowed down considerably and to an extent where major new roads (and in particular motorways) cease Figure 1.5: Wales Traffic trends 1993 – 2011 to be justified on current traffic forecasting grounds. The issue of 30,000 traffic forecasts is covered later in this report. 25,000

The evidence above indicates 20,000 that impact of road infrastructure on business may not be as great 15,000 suggested by many. This raises several questions. 10,000 • To what extent should the Welsh Government build more road 5,000 capacity to solve peak time Millon vehicles kilometres congestion problems when over 0 the whole day capacity is clearly 2011 1997 1993 1994 1998 1995 1996 1999 2001 2010 2007 2003 2004 2008 2002 2005 2006 2009 adequate? 2000 • Are there other solutions to the Source: Traffic in Wales, Statistics Wales, Welsh Government, Caerdydd / Cardiff, 2012 movement of people by car? How can active travel and public transport help? • Will these problems worsen as some forecasts have suggested or do the forecasts overstate rates of growth? • For how long has a possible flattening of demand or lower rates of growth in demand been occurring?

6 PART 1: THE CHALLENGE OF ROAD TRANSPORT

Current transport Figure 1.6: Car usage plateau / decline – international comparison methodologies 160 The evaluation techniques used by governments in Wales are: 150 • WelTAG (Welsh Transport 140 Planning and Appraisal Guidance 2009). This is the Welsh 130 equivalent of Scotland’s Scottish STAG and NATA in England. 120 All are similar, but WG is updating 110 WelTAG at present. • Sewta scoring framework for 100 initial sieve of schemes and for 90 Oil price shock small schemes (Sewta 2014). and start of crisis • HM Treasury Five Case Model 80 (HM Treasury 2012). 1991 1997 1993 1994 1998 1992 1995 1996 1999 1990 2001 2007 2003 2004 2008 2002 2005 2006 2009 2000 These methods only cover costs Germany Australia France and benefits in resource cost terms United Kingdom United States Japan to the Welsh economy as a whole or to the local economy. There are Source: International Transport Forum statistics two key elements derived from the old Department for Transport CoBA model which cover journey time Figure 1.7: Current trends in car ownership 1995 – 2010 savings and fuel cost reductions resulting from a road scheme. 50 The evaluation models need to be 45 extended to include an assessment 40 of commercial impacts – whether 35 positive from new investment, or 30 negative from lack of infrastructure investment. According to these 25 models, the impact of traffic 20 congestion on businesses resulted 15 in lost time, less efficient business 10

operations and therefore increased Percentage of households 5 costs. Tackling road congestion 0 hotspots is then seen as the highest priority. 2011/12 2010/11 1995/97 1998/00 2009/10 2007/08 2006/07 2003/04 2002/03 2004/05 2008/09 The DfT’s transport appraisal 2005/06 procedures have also been No car/van One car/van Two or more cars and vans criticised by several city regions in a recent report (Investing in city Source: Household car ownership for Wales, National Travel Survey, Department for Transport, London, 2013 regions – the case for long term investment in transport (Volterra, 2014)). It sums up the current appraisal process as fundamentally aligned to measuring transport benefits in time savings with the same value everywhere to

7 MOVING WALES FORWARD

ensure equity in investment. The Figure 1.8: Discrepancies between NTS Traffic Count Data (PJ1) and underlying assumption means that Road Traffic Estimates (forecasts) transport investments are there to generate welfare improvements 4,500 (based on generalised cost) and not to generate economic output and 4,000 therefore aid business expansion and increased employment. 3,500

The report refers to projects such 3,000 as Canary Wharf, originally intended to take light industrial premises, and for which the Docklands Light 2,500 Railway would have been adequate. However, property developers saw 2,000 an opportunity for higher footprint buildings employing and housing 1,500 more than 100,000 people. For this an extension to the Underground 1,000 (Jubilee Line) was built. The Driving mileage per capita year justification was not resource cost savings or welfare benefits 500 criteria but the potential direct and indirect contributions to economic - prosperity. The report says growth 1995 2000 2005 2010 “can be created by access and consideration of what might happen Road traffic estimates NTS (cars) Difference in the absence of such investments” (cars and taxis) (Volterra, 2014). The return on Source: LeVine, S & Jones, P (2013), On the Move, Technical Compendium, RAC Foundation, ORR, such an investment should include Scottish Government, Independent Transport Commission, Edinburgh and London fares, taxation on land value uplift, increased tax revenue Figure 1.9: DfT Forecasts and actual car traffic growth from additional employment and profits. At present only revenue is 200 considered as a net cost reduction in the appraisal. 175 150 Given the shortcomings in the current methodology employed by 125 Welsh Government and others, it 100 is clear that we need to develop a new and improved methodology 75 for assessing transport investment 50 in Wales. Current evaluation approaches to transport projects 25 are fragmented and do not take Index of car traffic (2003 = 100) 0 full account of the wider impact on 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 communities. 1989 GB forecast high 1989 GB forecast low 1997 GB forecast high 1997 GB forecast low 2008 England forecast 2009 England forecast 2011 England forecast GB actual England actual

8 Source: Goodwin, P & Mitchell K (2010). Analysis of DfT data, Institute of Advanced Motorists, London PART 1: THE CHALLENGE OF ROAD TRANSPORT

Traffic forecasts Figure 1.10: Car usage saturation forecasts (1973) Government policy at DfT and 450 Welsh Government was for many 400 years based on predict and provide 350 – predict traffic demand and then 300 provide the required capacity 250 according to the forecast demand. 200 It is these forecasts that are now 150 being called into question. There 100 has been a consistent difference 50 between the forecast road traffic 0 estimates for cars and taxis and 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 the National Transport Survey for cars over the period between 1995 Forecast Actual and 2010. This has varied between Source: Tulpule AH (1972), Forecasts of vehicles and traffic in Great Britain Report LR543, Transport & Road 12% and 15% with the discrepancy Research Laboratory; Mitchell K (2013) analysis. getting wider in more recent years (Figure 1.8).

The forecasts are based on Fig 1.11: Trends in GB Rail Passenger Traffic 1987 – 2011 assumptions covering changes in: 180 • GDP; • Population; 170 • Car ownership; 160 • Personal earnings. 150 The output figures are dependent 140 on the assumed changes in these 130

causal variables over the period of Index the forecast. As Figure 1.9 shows, 120 the forecasts relating to current 110 flows made between 1989 and 100 2011, on which the recent road programme depended, consistently 90 overestimate traffic levels. Traffic 80 has grown but in some cases imperceptibly. 1991-2 1990-1 1987-8 1997-8 1996-7 1993-4 1992-3 1994-5 1988-9 1998-9 1989-9 1995-6 2001-2 2000-1 2010-11 2007-8 2006-7 2003-4 2002-3 2004-5 2008-9 2005-6 2009-10

In Wales the Government’s own 1999-2000 figures show that car flows are in Financial year some cases falling. The predictions Passenger journey Passenger km made more recently by the DfT continue to be overestimates. The Source: Office of Rail Regulation, London (2013) consistent overestimation of traffic levels raises a serious question over the causal variables being used in the forecasts and their 1989 GB forecast high 1989 GB forecast low estimated values. 1997 GB forecast high 1997 GB forecast low 2008 England forecast 2009 England forecast 2011 England forecast GB actual England actual

9 MOVING WALES FORWARD

The DfT traffic figures show a Figure 1.12: Company car tax regime UK – impact on usage similar trend with a levelling out of traffic flows to 2014 (reflecting for 1,200 example the Welsh Government’s figures for the M4 J26 – J 27 flows) (WG, 2013; Cole, 2014). The 1,000 forecasts then become inconsistent with trends in recent years, suggesting that growth will return 800 resulting in an increase in traffic levels of 20% by 2030 (Figure 1.9), despite the lower levels of traffic flow seen in more recent years. 600

The current forecasting model Thousands (TEMPRO) uses assumptions 400 on projections for the following variables: • Population; • Household income; 200 • Workforce; • Employment. 0 Crucially, TEMPRO excludes public transport proposals and their 1991-2 1990-1 1987-8 1997-8 1996-7 1993-4 1992-3 1994-5 1988-9 1989-9 1998-9 1995-6 2001-2 2000-1 2010-11 2007-8 2006-7 2003-4 2002-3 2004-5 2008-9 2005-6 possible impact on traffic flows. 2009-10 1999-2000 There was substantial traffic growth Taxpayers claiming Taxpayers claiming both a in the late 1990s, but a levelling off company cars, company car and free fuel from 2001 with a slight fall to 2012. without free fuel for personal use provided There is therefore limited traffic by their employer evidence to suggest any change Source: On the Move Figure 5.3 RAC Foundation et al (op cit) from the traffic flow plateau which has been in evidence since 2001 and a falling mean line from 2005. • The increase in petrol costs demand then those changes have compared with rail fares has to be reflected in forecasting models. The underlying trends for traffic resulted in a cross price elasticity over the last eight years have been effect with a modal shift from car This does not always happen and affected by: to rail. often assumptions about growth in • The economic downturn with modal demand do not even reflect wages falling in real terms or The traffic forecast and the actual the actual over several years. unemployment reducing work position saw a levelling off by Therefore the forecasts are wrong journeys; 2007. However in the late 1980s, not because the wrong variables • Traffic congestion on strategic the forecasts had consistently are used but more that the values routes resulting in a transfer to overestimated traffic flows. and relationships attached to the train; Incorrect assumptions on the causal variables are over or under • Improvements in rail service underlying variables overestimated estimated. capacity and reliability following actual car traffic growth. investment by the Welsh Traffic forecasts in past years, for Government in rail services since If there is a basic change in the example Tulpule (1972), expected the new franchise took effect in relationships between demand and saturation in car usage to occur in 2004 / 05; the variables used to predict

10 PART 1: THE CHALLENGE OF ROAD TRANSPORT

about 2010. That meant that anyone Figure 1.13: Income and car usage – no longer linked aspiring to own a car had one and from then on only replacement 2.5 vehicles would be bought. The traffic forecasts were very accurate 2 but Professor Phil Goodwin suggests possibly for the wrong reasons. 1.5 It may have been a coincidence of counteracting assumptions. 1 A major report on traffic forecasts suggests causal factors are missing 0.5 from the DfT model: The ‘On the Move’ (RAC 2013) report suggests 0 possible causal factors for the 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 flattening of car usage: • Increases in car costs; Car use Income • Income and GDP effects; • Deterioration in road conditions; Figure 1.14 Changes in transport demand • Improvements to the rail network (and in South Wales these will 130 be significant in terms of track 120 capacity, train capacity especially in peak commuter periods, and 110 reduced journey times following electrification and development 100 of the Capital Region Metro); • Spatial planning policies such 90 as integrated plans for housing 80 shopping and leisure on major housing development sites; 70 • Smarter choices; • Improved mobile and internet 60 communications reducing the 50 need to physically transfer documents and the need to 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 physically be at the same location to facilitate a meeting; Port freight HGV traffic Car traffic • Company car ownership and Bus passengers Rail passengers Air passengers free fuel taxation regulations DfT (2014) Moving Britain Ahead: Transport analysis developments and challenges, Department for relating to payment in kind, have Transport, London cut the number (in Great Britain) of taxpayers claiming both car • Cultural and attitudinal changes; • Changing images of and free fuel for personal use • Health, and environment as contemporary life and work/life provided by employers from motivational factors to cut down balance; over 1m in 1989/90 to 220,000 in on car use; • An increase in online shopping; 2010/11. • Demographic changes – ageing • The growth in internet access, population; more single person e-mails etc. from mobile phones. Professor Phil Goodwin (Goodwin, households; women having 2012) also suggested non – children at a later age; young transport trends as causal variables people and ‘empty nesters’ in the plateauing of car use. going back to live in city centre locations;

11 MOVING WALES FORWARD

Rail usage impacts Fig 1.15 Forecasting demand for future travel Rail usage continues to rise from 450 1994 – 95 (index 90) to 2010 – 11 (index 172). This almost doubling of passengers does not however 400 provide the only factor in the fall or flattening of car usage.

Any continuation of the trends 350 seen in the recent recession, or cross price / service elasticity factor creating more modal shift to rail could result in even greater 300 increases in rail travel.

Fuel price impacts Vehicle miles (billions) 250 Fuel prices are a short term influence on car use – the price elasticity of car travel is such that 200 if the real price of fuel rises by 10% and remains at that level for a time 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 then traffic volume falls by about 1% per annum and by 3% over five 55% 42% 34% 29% 19% years or more. Despite short term ‘price wars’ by major supermarket, Scenario 5 Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 4 Scenario 3 the long term change in real fuel prices is the key determinant. The DfT (2014) Road Investment Strategy - Strategic Road Network, Department for Transport, London real pump price of petrol and diesel in pence per litre increased from either side Population impacts Secondly, in terms of car ownership, of 80p over the period 2000 to In the longer term two other factors the number of cars per household 2007 to either side of 100p per litre have an effect on car usage in a is important. Car ownership by November 2012. The impact direct relationship. Firstly, if the amongst households with one of the recent drop in fuel prices population rises then car usage will car has remained fairly constant remains to be seen. generally rise as car usage is similar (Figure 1.7). The percentage of per average car user. In Wales the households with more than one car population projections from the has increased while there are fewer Company car taxation households in 2009/10 with no car impacts 30 – 69 age group is fairly constant from 2010 to 2034. The under-29 than there was in 1995/97. The report (RAC, 2014) suggests age group is fairly constant while that the company car reduction may the over-70s group shows a gradual However new car/all vehicle be a one off movement but gives increase (RAC, 2014). It is this latter registrations in Wales have fallen no evidence for this. As Figure 1.12 group which shows (in the case of consistently between 2004 shows, changes to company car males) an increase in usage but that and 2011. In 2004 over 120k taxation policy can have a marked would be expected to be largely in vehicles/100k cars were registered; impact on company car usage. the off – peak times of day. by 2011 the ‘all vehicles’ figure was at 80k and car registrations at around 70k.The slight recovery to about 85K vehicles (of which about 72K were cars) can hardly reflect Society of Motor Manufacturers

12 PART 1: THE CHALLENGE OF ROAD TRANSPORT

and Traders’s view of new car sales saturated. We have reached that have resulted from factors such as being “particularly healthy” (SMMT, point in the mid 2000s and that congestion, environmental concern 2015). plateau now continues. If there is a and a change in lifestyle especially decline, that is due to an economic in urban areas and amongst young Impact of personal recession. males (Goodwin, 2013). income The fall in car usage has also The increasing criticism of the Many researchers suggested (1974 affected all income groups other current methodology from (Zahavi), 2000 (Schaeffer and than those earning under £10,000 transport planning and economics Victor) and 2010 (Metz)) that if time per annum, with the biggest fall professionals was based on the availability for travel is reached then being among those earning more continuing significant differential there will be a peak in car use. The than £30,000 per annum. The peak between forecast and actual traffic saturation level has been reached car effect has been more marked flows. Figure 1.14 shows this was for the desire, need and freedom for those men aged 16-29 where marked in recent years with actual (of time) to travel. Consequently there has been a fall in usage. For flows hardly changing since 2006 car usage has peaks. Indeed in the those aged over 29 the pattern for yet with predictions continuing to case of some higher paid people personal car use has been a slight show a rise. The National Transport the amount of car travel falls. rise to 2003 and a flattening out of Model (NTM) relates to the English This may be because they have demand since then to 2010. road network but is essentially the considerably less in-work travel. same model as that used in Wales. Changes in DfT Income elasticity of car travel transport forecasting From 2015, the DfT has employed a (Figure 1.13) indicates that if real scenario based approach income rises by 10% then traffic scenarios (Figure 1.15): volume rises by about 2% in a year The DfT has changed its approach • Scenario 1 assumptions are as in increasing to 5% or more over to road traffic forecasting since the 2013 forecast with a base line 5 years. The impact on vehicle the current methodology was affected by increases in incomes numbers rises by 4% in the short introduced, although that older and costs (e.g. fuel) as the causal term and 10% in the longer term. process is still in use, for example variable for travel choices and In Wales and in the south east in in the M4 relief road options (Black, trips; particular, since 2006, real earnings Purple and Red) around Newport. • Scenarios 4 and 5 are a variant of have fallen. In the Blue Route proposal (Cole, Scenario 1 with higher and lower 2014) the new approach was oil price increases respectively; Schaffer and Victor suggested recommended. • Scenario 2 removes the income that income elasticity in relation to elasticity element in the forecast distance is strong but travel time is Road traffic flows in England are so that income is no longer a fixed or at a maximum. Thus those predicted to grow by between causal variable because DfT on higher incomes move to fast 19% and 55% between 2010 and reckons the strength and nature modes. Total distance goes on 2040 in the DfT’s latest traffic of that relationship may be increasing but slow modes such as forecast published in May 2015. changing; the car are replaced by air or high This is despite a flattened trend and • Scenario 3 takes into account speed train. They suggested that reduced car traffic demand since the decline in trip rates over car use in the United States had 2004. the last 10 years (Figure 1.15) reached its maximum by 2010 and and extrapolates that rate to declined in OECD countries. The only increasing trends were 2040. DfT give the view that the air traffic which fell sharply from recession is a part of the cause. Metz suggested that if distance 2007, and rail passenger traffic However, levelling off of trip (increasing with speed) has which looks to continue its upward numbers began around 2004 diminishing marginal utility and trend on a consistent basis since (Figure 1.15). total travel time is fixed then total 1994. This has generally avoided travel time (including car time) is any “recession” effect. It may

13 MOVING WALES FORWARD

The National Transport Model (a in national traffic has slowed down DfT, and therefore the Welsh variation of which specifically for over the last 20 years and in Government Transport Division, Wales is used by the WG) according particular in the last ten. Reference conclude that traffic volumes to the DfT has a “good track record” was made by Dr Rowlatt to the continue to grow. This conclusion when inputs for GDP growth, fuel suggestion that car travel had reflects factors such as income costs and population are correct. reached a peak (Jones & Levine, increases and population levels, However, with such a range of RAC, 2013). reductions in fuel costs derived growth assumptions a cynic might from increased fuel efficient vehicle say at some point it is bound to be However DfT disagreed with engines. The DfT review (DfT, correct. English regions such as this conclusion and argued that 2015) found the other variables the North East / North West with aggregate trends are masked by (above) - demographic change similar economic characteristics to changing behaviours with young and congestion-related capacity Wales have the lowest rate of traffic men driving less while women and constraints are important. However growth. older people are driving more; there is much work to be done on some temporary factors such as the impact which technological “There will also be other factors company car taxation rules and change, changing social attitudes or such as congestion constraining some longer term – economic and lifestyles have on traffic flows. traffic and greater choice of other demographic (Jones, Goodwin, modes” – DfT. However, traffic Blue Route Report op cit). The DfT DfT will produce a new version of planners argue that the other causal has also produced a further report demand assumptions for schemes factors suggested by Professors providing a detailed discussion of in 2016 following this current review Jones (RAC 2013) and Goodwin the factors underlying the Road of causal variables. (2013) have still not been included. Transport Forecasts 2013. This considers factors DfT now know Urban policy and Stephen Joseph of the Campaign (but presumably did not before) transition for Better Transport says that the which influence travel decisions DfT “have at last accepted major - not just income and costs Economically wealthy cities traffic growth is not happening but changes in car ownership, with high incomes and growing but that forecasts still include demographics, planning data and populations show the greatest questionable assumptions that car congestion levels. This last element reduction in car use. Such a trend ownership will continue to climb may well cause an increase in, for exists in London, Munich and and motoring costs will continue to example, rail travel, home-working Paris and in smaller cities such as fall” (LTT, 2015). and/or changes in times of day for Strasbourg. journeys. DfT position on new Cardiff has those same methodology DfT continues to assert it has characteristics. It is: correctly accounted for changes • Economically buoyant with Dr Amanda Rowlatt, DfT Chief in population levels, GDP and increasing employment Economist (2015a) in her fuel costs and it has tracked opportunities, many at higher presentation at the Transport travel trends closely. This is not income levels; Economists Group (Rowlatt, 2015b), entirely the case. The DfT also say • Home to a large student set out the DfT position. In January they “know commentators and population who choose 2015, DfT published its report academics doubt our forecasts and entertainment and lifestyle ‘Understanding the Drivers of Road question whether these forecasts spending before car ownership Travel’. This reported on a varied give sufficient consideration to and usage; range of new evidence-based other factors at play” (LTT, 2015). • A young city with a significant analysis including statistics, social DfT suggest that a contributor proportion of people under 30 research, modelling and appraisal to this scepticism has been the years, who are more likely to be using tools developed with leading lack of transparency around the city centre dwellers, and/or non transport experts. A key objective forecasting approach and the -car owners who prefer to walk or was to understand why the growth assumptions underlying them. cycle.

14 PART 1: THE CHALLENGE OF ROAD TRANSPORT

There have been reductions in car • The forecast outcome (WG 2013) use in medium-sized towns and in does not reflect the recent trend ‘sustainable travel towns’ (2004 and shows a sharp uplift from - 08) and lower car use in high 2012 to 2030 of 20%: an average density new urban developments. growth of just over 1%; This is the case in Cardiff and • The assumptions are based Newport. Thus policy impacts and on economic activity and car lifestyle change have also reduced ownership rather than projected car usage, lower levels of car usage changes in modal split with no are not restricted to an economic interpretation of the impact of downturn. major rail investment; • The main drivers of the growth Travel behaviour will continue to in car use – income, prices (e.g. evolve. The real issue then is by fuel, competing public transport), how much will car use grow and will population size and projections it be anywhere near the previous have not changed in any major forecast? The scenarios suggest it way; could be as low as 19% (Scenario • Car usage is likely to grow 3) over the period 2010 to 2040. following economic recovery or Wales would be expected to have increased consumer confidence, one of the lowest growth rates in at a declining rate but in Great Britain and at present has a proportion to population change negative growth (i.e. reduction) in through the 30 – year forecasting traffic flow. period; • We can expect less driving by Transport forecasts – men (the higher in numerical conclusions terms and therefore a higher base figure), more by women; There was substantial growth • The biggest reduction in male in traffic in the late 1990s but a mileage (30 – 60) was due to a levelling off from 2001 with a slight reduction in company car use fall to 2012. There is therefore following higher taxation and so limited traffic evidence to suggest has this run its course? any change from the traffic flow plateau which has been in evidence “But the future depends on which since 2001 and a falling mean line trends win out e.g. will women’s from 2005. mileage continue to increase and will those in their 20s keep low The conclusions to be drawn on mileage in the future?”. future trends applicable to most – Professor Peter Jones British and European Union road projects are: • The presumption that car mileage has peaked arises from contrasting trends of reduced car usage in London, accompanied by increases in rural areas. It might be suggested therefore that areas such as Cardiff, Newport (and Valleys / Vale) and Bristol could be in between those two extremes.

15 MOVING WALES FORWARD PART 2 : BEYOND THE CAR

Bus services Figure 2.1: Bus passengers: Trends in passenger numbers 1998 – 99 to 2012 – 13, Wales, Scotland and English regions Buses are often seen as a form of public transport unsuitable for 190 business travel particularly outside 180 London. A variety of factors account 170 for this in a central London context. The use of buses for very short 160 journeys in place of more expensive 150 taxis combined with their frequency 140 and modern fleet makes them 130 “acceptable” to business users. Taxis are also available for specific 120 110 business trips and the Underground Index 1998 – 99 = 100 for longer central trips or long 100 suburban journeys and commuting. 90 London also has a central transport 80 body, Transport for London, with control over all aspects of transport 1998-9 1999-0 2001-2 2000-1 2011-12 2010-11 2007-8 2006-7 2002-3 2004-5 2008-9 2005-6 either directly or indirectly. It has 2012-13 2009-10 full control over all bus servicers London South East and South West in London which were never deregulated. Wales East Midlands and East Scotland North and West Midlands

Figure 2.1 shows how factors such Source: On the Move Figure 5.3 RAC Foundation et al (op cit) as convenience, frequency, comfort pricing structure and multi–ride ticketing has led to growth where • Lower rail and bus fares; It also identifies the delivery issues elsewhere demand has fallen • Increased public transport in operational and public finance or stayed level. This chapter will coverage; terms and points out that most show how if some of the London • Increased service frequencies; congestion is in urban areas. These characteristics are adopted, • Better integration of bus/train same areas are more likely to passenger growth can be achieved services and provision of have the critical mass of travellers (e.g. TrawsCymru and Bwcabus). multi-ride ticketing. who could justify the investment level involved. Two cases of rail Analysis of comments in the FSB These were the top four measures investment in rural areas have Wales survey (2014 Q9) on public that would encourage companies recently been reconsidered. transport highlighted the following and employees to use the public priorities for business travellers transport network more often for Discussions with leading bus/coach/ if they were to be persuaded to business. The following analysis rail operators and local authorities transfer from car usage to bus/train: shows how this is also seen as the gave a collective picture of how way to increase public transport they saw demand causes and the patronage and shift modal split development of the business. away from the car.

16 PART 1: THE CHALLENGE OF ROAD TRANSPORT

Companies who discussed the can determine which particular Airways and Air France attracted market were: transport service is purchased. The most of the airline passengers onto • TrawsCymru and Bwcabus rise in petrol prices in Great Britain the railway. The journey time of directly from Professor Stuart to 134.9p per litre led to a reduction 2h15m (city centre to city centre) Cole who created and set up in non-essential journeys by car. has also been a factor for the major both operations for the Welsh part of the market. Government and is now advisor There are three determinants to the operations and has been of such journeys (Cole, 2005). Journey time and price are advising the Minister on the next Demand elasticity will be low (i.e. considerations for those travellers stage in the development of the little change from a price rise / fall) between Swansea and Cardiff business as an integrated whole if: where competition exists between over the next three years; • The journey is essential; Great Western Railway/Arriva • NAT Group; • There is no practical alternative Trains Wales, the First Cymru • Cardiff City Transport; mode (in journey time, route Greyhound and National Express • Stagecoach; availability); Coach services. From Bangor to • First Cymru; • The cost of the journey forms Carmarthen the public transport • Edwards Coaches; a very small percentage of the options are TrawsCymru (T1/T2) via • Brodyr Richards; traveller’s income. Aberystwyth and the Arriva Trains • Arriva Buses Cymru; Wales service via Cardiff. Often the • Lloyds Machynlleth; The most recent high point for route mileage for the journey by rail • Express Motors; petrol prices was accompanied by a may be greater than the equivalent • Trenau Arriva Cymru/Arriva Trains shift to public transport, but this was journey by car / bus / coach. Wales; not as great as might have been However the journey time may be • First Great Western; possible. This may be because similar. • National Express – Coach. there was often no practical alternative. Frequency / Times of operation Price elasticity of The service times must be those demand The decision by the traveller as to which suit travellers’ needs. Many which mode to use will determine people wish to arrive at work by The lower the price the more demand and a cross-price elasticity 08.00 – 09.00 and leave between likely people are to use the effect can result in passengers 16.00 and 17.30. This is the most transport service offered. This is looking at the competitive costs on used operating period for bus a basic principle of economics offer from car, coach, bus and train. companies and includes the retail and is generally true of passenger market and much of the travel transport as it is of most other Quality factors market. services with the exception of luxury non-essential services such Speed of Service What it does not do is serve as the cruise, Venice Simplon For many commuters the journey the evening market or those Orient Express or luxury chauffeur- time from home to work is a key working shifts. These are often driven car markets. criterion in modal choice. Journey subsidised services tendered by time will be affected by both the local authorities. It also means that Price reductions might in quality of the infrastructure (which with reduced expenditure levels themselves attract new passengers will increase productivity and these evening services are being to the services; these are often reduce costs), and the consequent reduced and companies may not be travellers who did not use that or possible speed of the vehicle. prepared to take the financial risks service or used it less frequently. that come from their development. This is a form of dormant demand In international travel between Thus while a journey into a central held down by the price level. London and Paris the arrival of business district may be possible by In a competitive market there Eurostar with relatively modest bus the return journey may not. will be a variety of prices and fares (advanced purchase) On the railway network the the movement of one or other competitive with those of British timetables and subsidy is

17 MOVING WALES FORWARD

determined within the franchise 4. Helpful and polite staff and Case Study – Quality agreement with both legs of the customer care Information Based on Welsh Government journey in and out being provided. which is easy to obtain, easily and Carmarthenshire County The financial risk can be partly with understood and up to date / real Council survey results the area the Government and partly with the time of north Carmarthenshire and train company (Arriva Trains Wales). 5. Clean, as new as possible Ceredigion served by the Bwcabus vehicles or trains and TrawsCymru integrated Frequency is an important factor 6. Comfortable, secure waiting bus operation and linked to the in attracting passengers and seen areas or railway stations train services at Aberystwyth as a quality element. For urban 7. Ease of purchase of the correct and Carmarthen have attracted travellers the high frequency bus / ticket passengers with growth rates of up train are more likely to occur either 8. Convenient park and ride for to 40% per annum. commercially in densely-populated cars, cycles and well lit safe areas or tendered at certain times walking routes to the boarding The market research carried out of day. But reliable bus services in point. for these services has shown rural areas have been shown to be an increase in demand resulting a reason for success in growing Comfort from high level of reliability and passenger numbers and perception Many users of public transport timekeeping, high quality interiors of public transport as an option, make a comparison with their car on the TrawsCymru services with even though the frequency may and the bus / train in terms of the high brand values such as leather only be hourly. travel experience. While there is the seats, on board free Wi-Fi, clean advantage of being driven in public vehicles inside and out provided The competition legislation transport, the accommodation can with a 95% consistency of provision, originates from the British bus be crowded or overcrowded. Train integrated into other services such deregulation and EU competition advertisements have sold the train as the Bwcabus and feeder bus rules. It has had positive benefits as a mobile office (particularly for services. where two or more companies long journeys) and this remains compete for a route, usually in true as a comfort element. But An integrated transport urban areas such as Cardiff or narrow seat pitches and inadequate Newport. However, the pattern seat back flat surfaces lose that policy is more likely to be one of no advantage over the car. There is a generally accepted view interchange of tickets particularly that the long term (30 – 40 year between different companies’ Reliability time span) solution to the energy commercial operations, and A frequent reason for loss of and pollution consequences of the subsidised services (e.g. evening) patronage is the failure to get motor car in Europe and the other and commercial (usually daytime) passengers to their destination oil-using areas of the world must services operating the same route. or to a connecting service at the be the delivery of an integrated There are also patterns of operation scheduled time. Passengers have transport policy. Wales is in this where one company operates more an expectation that their train will regard representative of the EU as or less exclusively in one area of a arrive at or close to the time set out a whole. city and another in the remainder. in the timetable. As a relatively small country with Standard of Service Safety an established pattern of spatial Public transport users set the This is always a concern for development, standard of service by: all travellers, government and Wales has clearly definable areas, 1. Reliability and timekeeping of the operators. However, public namely: bus or train transport compares well to the • Major urban areas; 2. The quality and cleanliness of the private car in terms of safety. • Valleys communities; vehicles • Affluent rural areas ( often 3. Easy and comfortable referred to as “urban shadow”); interchange between services • Rural market towns • Remote (often called “deep rural”) areas.

18 PART 2: BEYOND THE CAR

Each of these area types has Logistics and supply chain The preferred structure to achieve particular transport needs. Future management facilitate operational such integration nationally, aspirations for transport service freight integration to achieve regionally or locally has two provision in each area type need to commercial objectives and the most prerequisites:- be explicitly stated so that a efficient means of moving goods. blueprint can be developed with There is no similar framework on a. A single policy and budgetary appropriate targets for service the passenger side where there are authority at the strategic provision by each transport mode. four policy and operational aspects (geographic) level both national to integrate. and regional. This would also The Welsh Government, both be the co-ordinating body for all directly and by commissioning Integrated Transport modes of public transport. studies and reviews, has moved Policy – definition towards the recognition of transport b. Co-ordinating bodies at problems and has identified Considerable discussion has operational level to achieve some possible solutions. These surrounded this policy but what seamless interchange between include the extension of transport does it mean? modes, within modes, and concessions, extension of Transport between modes and land uses/ Grant allocation to cover a three- An Integrated Transport Policy human activities. This relates year period, and increased use of examines four relationships: to physical interface and the transport telematics. • Integration within and between provision of through ticketing. different types of transport – There is a clear recognition that the better and easier interchange Experience in other urban journey-to-work movement is between car/bus/rail etc. with European Union States where the most dramatic changes better information on services must occur. This does not mean and availability of integrated While services in (b) may be that other aspects of policy, such tickets. The same applies provided by contractors, provisions as greater inclusivity (with a focus between public and private in (a) must involve a single body on accessibility rather than simply transport, between motorised and at the national and regional level mobility) should not be vigorously non-motorised (walking, cycling) carrying out both functions. This pursued, in parallel. However, transport and within public may be through a government without addressing the journey- transport; department or an arm’s-length to-work problem, it is unlikely that • Integration with the environment corporate body or company. other aspects will achieve or deliver – considering the effect of overall aspirations. transport policies on the The elements of such a system environment and selecting the exist in other member states of Changes in the powers of the most environmentally-friendly the European Union where high Welsh Government and the solution whenever possible; investment levels, together with National Assembly for Wales • Integration with land use policies for the co-ordination of should be sought on the basis of planning – to reduce the need services, fares and infrastructure a clear rationale. In the case of for motorised travel and to ensure developments, may be found in transport much of the responsibility new developments can be major centres as well as in local already lies with national or local reached by public transport; areas. government institutions. There • Integration with policies on are some developments for which social welfare, education, health The Regional Councils of France powers already exist (e.g. the Joint and wealth-creation so that have transport as a major policy Transport Authorities provided cross-cutting policies on issues issue with their responsibility for in the 2006 Transport (Wales) such as social inclusion, school covering local railway services Act) but which have not yet been travel, cycling and walking, and (along with Societe Nationale de implemented. the profitability of business work Chemins de Fer – SNCF) and bus together rather than against each operations in the municipalities. other.

19 MOVING WALES FORWARD

In Sweden regional public transport Elements therefore varies between urban and bodies run local bus and rail rural areas. services in a country with extensive If the analysis is confined (for the rural areas, a small population (8m) moment) to passenger transport However this difference can be and a concentration of people in a then the elements identified below narrowed though a radical new small part of the total land area. can be integrated (with a trade- approach to rural bus services. off in expenditure between them Regular-interval fixed-timetable The Netherlands has a national based on a single multi-modal operations suit urban areas with ticketing system for local public evaluation technique). high patronage levels but have only transport (originally called the The elements are: limited value in rural areas. The Nationale Strippenkaart) and a • Road investment; Bwcabus computer/satellite/GPS national railway service, but with • Rail investment (infrastructure, and flexible scheduling bus system provinces being responsible rolling stock); responds to demand and has for stations and for all bus, rail • Bus investment (terminals and enabled a radical and successful and train-taxi services which vehicles); (in increased patronage terms) may be directly operated by a • Public transport interchanges; approach to rural public transport. government-owned body or by • Walking/cycling facilities a private company franchised by investment; Generally there is a need for the appropriate local or national • Traffic management (physical and improvements in the public authority. Track operations are fiscal); transport system before car users retained by the state-owned • Public transport fare levels) and can be persuaded to change, Railned. consequent; and non-car owners are able, to • Public transport service level) make reasonably timed and priced In Austria, the Land (equivalent contractual payments. journeys. to the consortia areas) has responsibility within its area for Rationale Its current powers provide the all local public transport and land The key objective of integrated Welsh Government / National use planning. This is linked into transport for Wales would be Assembly with an exclusive national a national policy for rail services. to provide for a split between role only in roads, with a further Joint ticketing exists on all services accessible and affordable modes role in road/rail transport through within the Land. Austrian Railways of travel which are both sustainable its links with local authorities. (a public sector body) retain and become the preferred modes Rail expenditure is split between operational control and ownership of travel. the Welsh Government (train of the track. services funding), the Westminster This report proposes that Wales Wales, as indicated above, has a Department for Transport (train would follow the above in many variety of spatial characteristics: services and track funding) and ways, but would be taken further • Densely populated urban areas Network Rail (track investment to the point where management (e.g. Cardiff, Newport, Merthyr, and borrowing funds). This control, finance, policy and service Ebbw Vale, Swansea, Wrexham); severely limits its ability to balance provision (though not necessarily • Major towns (e.g. Neath, Port investment between the best service operations) would be Talbot, Llanelli, Aberystwyth, solutions to transport problems. conducted by one national, and Llandudno); four associated regional, bodies • Important rural centres (e.g. 4I’s Concept (the Joint Transport Authorities Carmarthen, Haverfordwest, As outlined previously, the 4I’s proposed in the Transport Castell Newydd Emlyn, Llandeilo, concept identified the following (Wales) Act 2006) based on the Brecon, Newtown, Ruthin, as the integration equation for geographical areas of the current Denbigh); passenger transport: transport consortia and county • Deep rural Wales (e.g. council groupings. Ceredigion, Powys, Gwynedd). Information + Interchange + Investment + Imagination = The potential for journey modal Integration transfer from car to public transport

20 PART 2: BEYOND THE CAR

The absence of any of these Waiting facilities at railway stations – congestion from fewer motor elements will hinder or even are generally adequate and in some cars prevent the development of an cases good. At bus stops the quality – C0² emissions integrated passenger transport varies between good and poor, with – other environmental factors system. A transport body for Wales no shelter from the elements at all – car / person accident levels could effectively manage each of in too many locations. – increased use of buses and trains these elements. leading to increased revenue; Such a modal shift has benefits reduced public revenue support Active travel for small businesses in terms of (subsidy); justification of further reduced parking costs, increased investment in public transport The principles set down in the 2013 sales and reduced road congestion. services and facilities (from bus Active Travel (Wales) Act and the In Antwerp ‘Sheffield’ type cycle shelters to rail / bus stations) subsequent documents - Design stands erected by retailers have – increased public transport Guidance; Action Plan; and Delivery improved sales for individual revenue/reduced subsidy Plan - form the first stages in the businesses and whole locations. • Improved shopping environment Welsh Government’s move to leading to increased spend; encourage active purposeful travel It is not easy to identify which type • Access to facilities improved; to and from work. of infrastructure scheme provides • Convenience, accessibility, the greatest benefit as it will often comfort for pedestrians and But this starting point has to depend on where the scheme is cyclists. be taken further through the located, the target audience for integration of walking and cycling the intervention and the relative Benefits with public transport. In addition impact of the scheme. For example, to complete trips by bike or on upgrading a crossing from ‘Encouraging cycling to work foot, there is a large untapped pedestrians-only to include cyclists reduces traffic at peak times market of current car commuters. along a key corridor may have reducing pressure on other forms They need clear route information, more impact than a long section of road and public transport and suitable waiting areas and secure of new route between two small travel times for other road users’ cycle parking at railway and bus settlements. Experience indicates (SQW 2007). This benefit has been stations and at key bus stops to be the greatest benefits are derived achieved through improved walking persuaded over time to change to a from schemes which have a clearly and cycle paths, but has to be put multi -modal journey. defined target audience and use a into the context of 100,000 people combination of infrastructure and commuting into and out of Cardiff There is increasing evidence of promotional/behaviour change every day (CCC, 2015). While some the impact of creating high quality elements. (WLA, 2014) people living in the inner suburbs interchange facilities such as may be persuaded to travel to work secure cycle storage at suburban There are several different benefits by cycle or walking, for most a railway stations (as suggested by which could have different policy primary objective has to be a modal Abellio Rail in their application of weightings depending on the change to public transport, with part the Bike2Go scheme (Evans, 2014)) priorities of the community or of the journey at both ends by foot and at major bus stops serving a government. or bicycle, and making increasing large population or several routes. use of the south east Wales Metro This evidence is mounting as more These include: investment over the next 20 years locations are constructed and we • Health (Davies, A, 2014; MOL (Metro 2014). Investment in public learn more of the impact of longer 2014); transport must also keep in mind term schemes like the Netherlands • Numbers of people cycling or how people are to get to bus / and Denmark. Many railway stations walking to work; tram stops and to railway stations. have cycle storage and this • An integrated approach to Varying levels of investment are to may need to be made secure or personal mobility, through modal be encouraged in other towns and extended. change from motor car and its cities in Wales but should always be effects on: on an integrated basis.

21 MOVING WALES FORWARD

Current Welsh, Scottish and English National Transport Plan feasibility, design and funding (or Benefit Cost Ratio (BCR) appraisal an alternative in-house unit with methodologies do not take There is a need in the post the technical experience) is also anything approaching full account consultation preparation of the necessary. This is the format used of the health benefits of walking National Transport Plan to ensure in Scotland and by TfL. and cycling. Health benefits were that active travel modes and their / are not included in Department integration with one another is Barriers exist to the success of for Transport CoBA, and New considered. There are particular walking and cycling schemes. Approach to Transport Appraisal types of scheme which can be more These include: (NATA) techniques and the HM successful than others in terms of • Funding levels in Wales (currently Treasury Transport Business Case. the elements outlined above. an estimated £5 per head (£15m)) In consequence a cycle junction Such schemes might include: are less than in Scotland – £10 scheme to improve safety would: • Provision of information on per head – equivalent to £30m pa • Have accident reduction values cycling and walking routes and in Wales. Considerably more per but these are a small proportion facilities in particular network head is spent in other EU states of the monetised values maps; and if we aspire to a Netherlands (ex CoBA); • Schemes with community level of active travel a catch up • Have delays for the general involvement and which reduce expenditure of £60m for several motorised traffic which have a community severance; years would be required; higher value for travel time than • Links between small rural • Annual grant arrangements cyclists and pedestrians settlements and a regional urban hampering deliverability of (ex CoBA); centre; schemes – this could be solved • Have no monetised health • Scoring highly on buildability, by a more flexible 3-year rolling benefits for either personal health projected demand, community funding programme; or savings for the NHS. use and cost; • Local authorities have no ‘stock’ This applies in Wales also. • Continuation or ‘filling gaps’ on of schemes with feasibility and existing routes; design stages which can be These values can be monetised • Hub and spoke routes into town completed in the one-year period; however using the HEAT (2008) centres and public transport hubs; • The lack of a route strategy - to technique, as can monetised • High quality surfaces and lighting; be solved consequent on the benefits from reduced sickness feel secure routes; Active Travel Act 2013 provisions; absenteeism and the costs to the • Segregated cycle paths and • The lack of public transport business sector. Other factors footpaths within the central integration to generate additional which are not monetised and business districts; movements; therefore largely ignored at present, • Significant peak time public • Land purchase - timescale, cost - are benefits of reduced illness, transport schemes reducing car may put off WG / local authorities; costs to the NHS, improved air flows and congestion costs; • Walking and cycling is not part quality and improved well-being. • Schemes that increase public of mainstream appraisal but road transport use thus contributing to construction is included; Many of the discussions have subsidy reduction. • WelTAG does not lend itself to revolved around the absolute cost many of the benefits (time savings of a particular scheme. However, Achieving success not achieved; health benefits not of equal importance has been the Delivery of active travel schemes included); opportunity cost of constructing should involve closer working • Many benefits have no monetised one scheme rather than others; or between Welsh Government and values. the selection of a more expensive local authorities throughout the scheme in place of a lower feasibility / design and funding Walk, park and ride cost option. In selecting a more stages. expensive solution the Welsh Park and ride or walk and ride have emerged in the view of many (WLA, Government may have other factors An arm’s-length dedicated unit such as traffic / rail usage growth in Sustrans, TfL) who responded to (covering walking, cycling and the discussions as probably the mind and to build for growth may public transport interchange) for be the better option. most effective way in the short-

22 PART 2: BEYOND THE CAR

to-medium term by which current with investment for other transport • number of users; travellers will be persuaded to modes, especially roads. Until the • scoring system (variations as make at least part of their trip on benefits are taken into account used for Scottish Government / foot or bicycle. This was referred there will be underinvestment Sewta / SWWITCH / TfL / English to by Sustrans as “the final mile”. at a national and local level. Counties). The objective was also referred Active travel schemes should be to as being to get motorists out of compared with other local transport Demand-based schemes their cars rather than to have public schemes so that these can transport users’ transfer to walking demonstrate their value for money. Under the previous system used in or cycling. Clearly the former Wales consultation could take place would bring advantages in terms Cycling and walking are not catered to assess demand. Latent demand of healthy lifestyles but could also for comprehensively in WelTAG is harder to assess than road contribute to reduced congestion in or the HM Treasury Transport traffic demand. In the latter, traffic urban areas. Business Case. They are catered for congestion is a good indicator of in the scoring system in some local excess of demand over supply. That was the format of ‘predict’ Urban vs. rural authorities which should provide for health benefits and active travel (traffic flow from current capacity A distinction between urban within the mainstream appraisal under supply and forecast growth and rural also becomes an issue process where Benefit Cost Ratio using established techniques) and in determining the most likely based investment conclusions are ‘provide’ (additional road space). successful schemes if they were derived. judged in terms of the numbers The present integrated transport of people using active travel A Cycling Demand Forecasting investment appraisal should be a journeys rather than car or public Handbook to bring demand and ‘provide and promote’ approach. transport. If total use was a primary appraisal together in parallel with This uses new elements within criterion then the urban schemes rail and road demand analysis and the forecasting model and assigns would continuously be the more to measure levels of walking and more importance to active travel successful. A means of making a cycling for various categories of and public transport modes distinction between urban and rural activities - work, education, health especially when compared to areas in prioritising schemes is etc. together with the other benefits the current DfT traffic forecasting needed. But conversely this should and outcomes for pedestrians, model (DfT, 2010; Goodwin, P be put into the context of the lower cyclists, economic impact, modal 2013; Jones, P 2013; TfL 2015). travel distance involved in urban shift, risks to delivery and the However, that latent demand is not areas giving a greater likelihood delivery stages and potential delays easily teased out and the transfers of success if demand levels, / costs is necessary. sought are also from the motor car construction costs and distances to active travel and not from public are all considered. transport. Research employing Bus and train companies (with Measures of benefits stated preference techniques (SQW local authorities) already have, or There are different methodologies 2007) could be used but further could, encourage such integration. for measuring success. In summary methodology is suggested in the Through such integration those they are: Design Guidance. The analysis who currently drive to / from work • Benefit Cost Ratio (BCR) a of potential demand is required or to the local railway station by car form of cost benefit analysis at the feasibility stage as part of may be persuaded to begin a move using monetary measures or developing both local strategic to active travel thorough part of established measures where this routes and national routes. their journey. is not possible. This would fit into WelTAG (2008) and to the Journey time (transport demand Appraising schemes HM Treasury Transport Business research suggests) is a primary Case (Decision, 2012; DfT 2011); factor in determining modal choice. Robust evidence on the • HEAT (created by the World Even for short journeys of less than performance and benefits of Health Organisation WHO) for one mile the motor car may be used cycling and walking investment is monetising health benefits; rather than walking. Journey time required to compete effectively

23 MOVING WALES FORWARD when coupled with convenience Key characteristics of New highway plans must be tested and weather may further influence demand (as required by the Act) to see if modal choice. (TfL, 2009a, 2009b, provision is made for active (but 2011). • Journey time comparison also public transport) travel through between modes; the Welsh Government grant and For longer journeys particularly to/ • Weather (SPA 2014a, b); funding processes. This applies from work, the disparity in journey • Relative locations of work, school, also to any Welsh Government time may be even greater - e.g. a health facilities, homes; funded / part-funded bus or rail journey of 10 minutes by car may • Accessibility of walking and stations. New railway stations such take 30 minutes by bike, often cycling facilities; as Energlyn, Ebbw Town or Pye determined by road quality and • Interchange at bus stops / bus Corner have cycle storage facilities. speeds. stations and railway stations; Information on all stations’ cycle • Population density (current or storage should appear on the new In rural areas, this disparity may be potential from land use changes Wales and Borders network maps. greater where the distance from e.g. housing estates juxtaposed home to work may be many more to city centres); There are two separate cycling and miles (10, 20, or 30) and cycling/ • Deliverability (land ownership); walking markets (WLA (2014)); TfL walking may not be a consideration. • Community-backed schemes; (2008; 2009a, b, 2011; 2012a; 2014 • Topography of, for example, b,c,d,g), Transport Scotland (2013), In the view of some local authorities valleys throughout Wales; PJA (2015) to which any persuasive there is currently no provision for • To meet a socio-economic need. initiatives have to be aimed: consultation / research or for a • Those who will cycle/walk at all feasibility study. This would also It is often suggested that a times in all weathers to those include a cost analysis. ‘shopping list’ of schemes does who cycle/walk in relatively dry The feasibility stage would explore not represent a plan. However weather along the full route design in more depth (keeping it can do so if the objective is between home and work / shops in mind the Design Guidance) clear, for example to create a / leisure facilities. and more accurate costing. strategic cycling network within • Those who will, instead of This potential cost risk on local a local authority area, and if the car use, given the facility and authorities is seen as one reason WG funding criteria are used to information, cycle or walk to why only a small percentage of determine inclusion. It is particularly public transport interchange pre-delivery money was spent. so if community connectivity with facilities at rail and bus stations or (WLA 2014 a-d; 2015). central business hub is to be for relatively short distances and maximised. in dry weather. (SPA, 2014a, b).

There are however many unknowns A list of active travel schemes can Both have potential for growth and about the cycling market and what represent a plan if together they have similar market characteristics influences demand. TfL (2015) complete a strategic cycle network to the ‘car all the way to work’ has suggested a Cycling Demand within a local authority area and modal shift to ‘car to the railway Forecasting Handbook along the take account of the funding criteria station park-and-ride site’ which has same lines as the rail industry’s e.g. transport grant funding which been a travel change characteristic Passenger Demand Forecasting promoted access to town centres on Valley Lines services over the Handbook. This has determined from residential areas. last ten years for car users and assumptions for demand input into walking passengers. market appraisal. Cycling modal Integrated Transport split assignment (route choice) and Schemes The 4l’s approach has been a part the measurement of demand causal of the attempts to move travellers factors (below). WG should join with The basis of the WG transport from cars to public transport. The TfL in developing this valuable tool policy is to integrate different same approach could be used to for implementing the Act. modes of transport with the achieve a modal shift (for all or part intention of reducing car use. of the journey) from cars to walk or cycle.

24 PART 2: BEYOND THE CAR

Information + Interchange + • Planned - Cardiff (the plans here Investment + Imagination = could be tested against the Integration Transform Scotland Audit Toolkit).

The Design Guidance (WG 2014b) Chapter 7 relates to integration of modes in particular in improving facilities for walking and cycling to / from public transport facilities (railway stations; bus stations; bus stops with several routes) and cycles on buses. However, the Design Guidance (sections 5 and 7) does recommend public transport interchanges should be given a high priority when routes are developed making it easier / shorter for walkers and cyclists. Bus and train stops should be well connected to the walking / cycling networks with well signed, high quality surface routes to work and residential areas. These have enabled penetration into the multimodal market.

There was also a shift from car travel for the entire journey to rail thus also potentially contributing to the financial position of the railway service and reduced subsidy or improved revenue and service quality.

In Scotland, Transform Scotland (TS 2014 a-d) makes the case ‘for sustainable transport across all modes’. Their Interchange Audit Toolkit could usefully be applied to several existing and proposed bus stations in Wales to bring out all these benefits.

Examples are • Already constructed - Swansea, Aberystwyth, Llanelli, Carmarthen, Caerphilly, Brecon, Haverfordwest, and Rhyl; • Under construction so could be incorporated – Newport;

25 CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS

This report provides the basis for much Thepotential cost ofimprovement travel, rather in than transport just across Wales. Further research is muchneeded potential into some improvement of the specifics in but thetime following taken, should conclusions be a key can issue. be drawn: transport across Wales. Further research• Welsh Governmentis needed into should, some working of with• Joint DfT Transportwhere necessary, Authorities change the methodology behind traffic forecasts theto specifics ensure that but inthe future, following forecasts bettershould reflect beactual established traffic flows to oversee and road usage. conclusions can be drawn: regional transport provision. • Welsh Government should develop a new methodology for assessing the worth of transport projects which takes • Welshaccount Government of latent demand should, for active travel,• A new rather arm’s than length simply body, concentrating on the easier-to-assess road traffic workingdemand. with This DfT methodology where should includeTransport all forms for of Wales, transport, should and be reflect the importance of rural as well as necessary,urban schemes. change the set up to lead on integrated methodology behind traffic transport, transport policy and • forecastsLonger-term to ensure and more that flexible in future, funding modelsprovision. should be adopted for the delivery of travel schemes with a move forecastsaway from better short-term reflect annual actual grant arrangements, where these exist. traffic flows and road usage. • Powers over bus regulation • Public transport timetables should bettershould meet bethe fully needs devolved of businesses to Wales and local economies. • Welsh Government should at the earliest opportunity. • developAffordable a newpublic methodology transport options should be available to travellers, including business travellers, in every part of forWales. assessing the worth of Thetransport cost of projectstravel, rather which than takes just time taken, should be a key issue. account of latent demand for • activeJoint Transport travel, rather Authorities than simply should be established to oversee regional transport provision. concentrating on the easier-to- • assessA new arm’sroad trafficlength demand. body, Transport This for Wales, should be set up to lead on integrated transport, transport policy methodologyand provision. should include all forms of transport, and reflect • thePowers importance over bus of regulation rural as well should as be fully devolved to Wales at the earliest opportunity. urban schemes.

• Longer-term and more flexible funding models should be adopted for the delivery of travel schemes with a move away from short-term annual grant arrangements, where these exist.

• Public transport timetables should better meet the needs of businesses and local economies.

• Affordable public transport options should be available to travellers, including business travellers, in every part of Wales.

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Caerdydd / Cardiff and London Wright, P (2015), Developing an integrated strategy / authority; Multi-modal forecasting and case making. TfL (unpublished presentation).

31 MOVING WALES FORWARD DISCUSSIONS AND ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

The discussions were on a one Plan v1 Draft. Metro Implementation behalf of TS – including information to one/small group basis and the Team for WG. service advice, grant management, author is very grateful for the time PJA (2015) Phil Jones Associates, support for CAPS, liaison with local given by individuals and the use of Discussions with Phil Jones authorities. Regional Transport their experience and expertise in Roberts, C (2014) Discussions (2014 partnerships. Transport Scotland, the preparation of this report. / 2015) with Chris Roberts Special Edinburgh. Abellio Rail Ltd (2015) discussion Adviser (including active travel), with Jeremy Whitaker, Mike Smith. Cynulliad Cenedlaethol Cymru TfL (2015b) Meeting with Professor / National Assembly for Wales, Cole (Peter Wright, Policy Manager ATB (2015), Active Travel Board, Caerdydd / Cardiff. (delivery mechanisms and how TfL Ministerial advisory board Seminar work fits into the Mayor’s Transport Bristol (2015) Discussion with Sergeant, C (2014) Discussion with Strategy – focusing on links to Philip Wright, LSTF Travelwise Minister with previous responsibility work and public services; Kate Engagement Manager, Bristol City for active travel. Barber (behaviour among road Council. users from the customer insight Stables, T (2014) Discussion with carried out by TfL – see research CL (2015) Discussion at Capital Tom Stables, Managing Director, papers referred to); Lucy Saunders, Law, a Cardiff law firm with Yvette Matthew Scoggins, Head of Public Mayor’s Public Health Adviser, on Jaques, Director of operations on Affairs, National Express Coach. the health benefits of active travel; Bike2Go. Jamie O’Hara, Head of Government Sustrans (2015a) Discussion with Relations, TfL, London. Haigh, C (2014) Discussion with John Lauder Director; David Conrad Haigh, Integrated Transport Grant Systems Manager Sustrans UM (2015) Discussions with John Manager, ATOC, London Scotland, Edinburgh. Dales, Urban Movement. London Edinburgh (2015) Discussion Van de Wijk, W (2014), Discussion with Anne Herriman. Site visit Sustrans (2015b), Discussions (2014 on the Netherlands experience with Leith walk urban realm creation / 2015) with Jane Lorimer, Director, Win van der Wijk. project delivered by Sustrans and Sustrans Cymru. Edinburgh CC, Edinburgh City WG (2015) Discussions with Meryl Council. Swansea Site Visit (2015) Professor James, Claire Bennett (Deputy Stuart Cole, Margaret Williams Director). Natalie Grohmann, (2014, Hoe, N (2015), Discussion on T Scotland (2015) Discussion 2015) Llywodraeth Cymru / Welsh Copenhagen cycling infrastructure with Karen Fury, Tracy McKeon Government, Caerdydd / Cardiff with Niels Hoe. Sustainable Transport Team), WLA (2014), Bridgend CBC Neil Langhorne – Smarter Choices, Discussion with Kwaku Opoku – LTP (2015) Discussion with Jo Sachs Smarter Places programme; Addo, Matthew Gilbert, Kevin Sales. – Eldridge, Local Transport Projects overview of policy frameworks, for on Cardiff City Council active travel Scottish Government’s investment WLA (2014), Caerphilly CBC plans (referred by Paul Carter, Head in active travel, Cycling Action Discussion with Huw Morgan, of Transport, Cardiff City Council plan for Scotland (CAPS), National Gemma Thomas. Metro (2014) A Cardiff capital region walking Strategy (NWS). Overview Metro, Strategic Implementation of services provided by Sustrans on

32 DISCUSSIONS AND ACKNOWLEDEMENT S

WLA (2014), Powys Paper response on active travel structured questionnaire – Anthea Jones WLA (2014c), Denbighshire, Discussion with Peter Daniels, Ben Wilcox-Jones, Mike Jones WLA (2015) Swansea Discussion at City and County of Swansea – Stuart Davies, Ben George, Sue Miles.

33 All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without prior permission of the Federation of Small Businesses (FSB). While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the facts and data contained in this publication, no responsibility can be accepted by the FSB for errors or omissions or their consequences. Articles that appear in the report are written in general terms only. They are not intended to be a comprehensive statement of the issues raised and should not be relied upon for any specific purposes. Readers should seek appropriate professional advice regarding the application to their specific circumstances of the issues raised in any article. Published May 2016.

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