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The Security Situation for Central Asia: Afghanistan, Water, and Uzbek Stability

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The Security Situation for Central Asia: Afghanistan, Water, and Uzbek Stability University of Denver Digital Commons @ DU Electronic Theses and Dissertations Graduate Studies 2-1-2011 The Security Situation for Central Asia: Afghanistan, Water, and Uzbek Stability Carleton Wesley Becks University of Denver Follow this and additional works at: https://digitalcommons.du.edu/etd Part of the Asian Studies Commons, and the International Relations Commons Recommended Citation Becks, Carleton Wesley, "The Security Situation for Central Asia: Afghanistan, Water, and Uzbek Stability" (2011). Electronic Theses and Dissertations. 61. https://digitalcommons.du.edu/etd/61 This Thesis is brought to you for free and open access by the Graduate Studies at Digital Commons @ DU. It has been accepted for inclusion in Electronic Theses and Dissertations by an authorized administrator of Digital Commons @ DU. For more information, please contact [email protected],[email protected]. THE SECURITY SITUATION FOR CENTRAL ASIA: AFGHANISTAN, WATER, AND UZBEK STABILITY ___________ A Thesis Presented to The Dean and Faculty of the Josef Korbel School of International Studies University of Denver ____________________ In Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree Master of Arts in International Security ___________________ by Carleton Wesley Becks February 2011 Advisor: Jonathan Adelman Author: Carleton Wesley Becks Title: THE SECURITY SITUATION FOR CENTRAL ASIA: AFGHANISTAN, WATER, AND UZBEK STABILITY Advisor: Jonathan Adelman Degree Date: February 2011 ABSTRACT Central Asia has emerged on the global stage after spending decades in isolation. As developing nations, most of Central Asia possesses the resources to spur rapid development. Things would seem to be in the region’s favor. There are, however, a few events that could derail the region. Afghanistan is on the periphery of the region and presents a series of difficult dilemmas such as creating a functioning government from a country that has been at war for nearly 30 years, the problem of the insurgency in the south, and narcotics trafficking. Water is scarce in the region, the leaders cannot agree on a water sharing treaty, and the downstream and upstream nations have different water usage needs and patterns. Lastly, Uzbekistan presents some challenges due to its centrality in the region, clan infighting, the unresolved issue of succession, and the tenuous stability in the country. ii Table of Contents 1. Introduction ...................................................................................................... 1 2. Afghanistan ...................................................................................................... 7 a. Afghan History 1978-2001 ................................................................... 8 b. Pakistani Puzzle ................................................................................. 16 c. The Effect of Narcotics Trafficking .................................................. 22 d. Afghan Scenario ................................................................................. 26 e. Afghan Recommendations ................................................................ 32 3. Implications of Water ................................................................................... 36 a. Soviet Era Water Policy .................................................................... 38 b. Post-Independence Water Policy ...................................................... 40 c. The politics of water in Central Asia ................................................ 42 d. Central Asian water scenario ............................................................ 47 e. Water recommendations ................................................................... 53 4. Uzbekistan’s effect on stability ..................................................................... 56 a. The Uzbek President’s role ............................................................... 57 b. The role of clans ................................................................................. 58 c. The clans vs. Karimov ....................................................................... 60 d. The issue of succession ....................................................................... 62 e. Uzbek succession scenario …………………………………………. 64 f. Uzbek recommendations ...................................................................67 5. Conclusion ...................................................................................................... 68 Bibliography ......................................................................................................... 76 Endnotes ................................................................................................................ 78 iii Table of Figures Figure 1. Map of Afghanistan .............................................................................. 6 Figure 2. Map of South Asia ............................................................................... 15 Figure 3. Map of Amu Darya and Syr Darya Rivers ........................................ 35 Figure 4. Map of Uzbekistan ............................................................................... 55 iv Acknowledgment The author wishes to thank several people. I would like to thank my parents, for their love and support during the time it has taken to me to graduate. I would like to thank Chanelle J. Howe, PhD; for her patience and encouragement throughout this time. I would also like to thank Susan Rivera. She was very helpful in answering my seemingly unceasing procedural questions. Last but not least, I would like to thank Professor Jonathan Adelman for his help and being a sounding board for my myriad of questions. v Introduction “Who rules East Europe commands the Heartland; who rules the Heartland commands the World-Island; who rules the world-island controls the world.” 1 This theory has unknowingly been put into practice for centuries, and in no area is this truer than Central Asia. This region has passed through countless hands since the Mongols’ arrival in the 13 th and 14 th centuries. It is only now coming into its own as a distinct region since the end of the Cold War, and specifically in the context of post-September 11. The emergence of powerful neighbors bordering the region has only intensified Central Asia’s importance. Central Asia 2 has taken on an increased global profile lately, due primarily to the abundant natural resources in the region and the subsequent scramble by a myriad of nations for them. In what has been termed the New Great Game, countries including China, India, and the United States are trying to curry favor within the region to gain access to those resources. There is another explanation why the Central Asian republics figure so prominently on the global stage, their proximity to Afghanistan. The entire region’s security is not as substantially affected by Afghanistan; the burden is shouldered Page 1 primarily by Uzbekistan and Tajikistan. Turmoil in either country could have a spillover effect, causing significant internal instability for the rest of Central Asia. Unrest in Uzbekistan makes the rest of the region vulnerable due to its centrality, while Tajikistan’s porous borders allow easy transit and access to other countries. My thesis will have three parts in examining a question: the effect that Afghanistan, water scarcity and the conflict that could ensue, and Uzbekistan’s stability will have on the region. The short term effect of Afghanistan on the greater region will be relatively easy to recognize but the longer term effects will be more difficult to analyze. On the other hand, viable water is a necessity so the long term effects are very visible; however, the short term effects are not as easily quantifiable. Lastly, Uzbekistan’s ability to change the security dynamic within the region is a very abstract notion at the present. It is largely hypothetical but one that needs to be examined. Recommendations will be given for each area of concern and various scenarios will be constructed. The instability in Afghanistan is well known. The US and the international community are working to establish a functioning government, which has its own set of complications. There are times when the goals of the international community, NATO, and the US seem markedly different. There are disputes between the Pashtuns and other ethnic groups and within the larger Pashtun groupings themselves. There is also the Page 2 problem that Afghanistan has been in conflict for the better part of three decades. It does not have the necessary human capital to construct a functioning government. The country is starting over, for all intents and purposes. That is only the beginning. There are various non-state military formations (NMF) 3 operating freely within Afghanistan, which indicates a limit on central authority. The Afghan government is not strong enough to enjoy unfettered control of its sovereign territory. There are historical examples that show this may be a hallmark of Afghan governance. The central government historically had an alliance of sorts with the rural elite. Then there is the issue of narcotics trafficking taking place within Afghanistan, valued at $2.8 billion dollars per year 4. That is one of two economically viable industries left in the country; with the other being “a global arms market 5”. Related to the trafficking, are the problems related to poverty, like illiteracy and high levels of unemployment. To put narcotics’ value into perspective, the 2009 GDP of Afghanistan
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