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8 July 2021 COVID 19 EUROCONTROL IMPACT ON Comprehensive Assessment EUROPEAN AVIATION SUPPORTING EUROPEAN AVIATION 1 Headlines Traffic Situation Daily flights (including overflights) . 21,567 flights (62% of 2019 levels) on Wed 7 July 2021, increase (+19%) over 2 weeks. Renewed traffic increase (2-digit) since early July—after the first jump early June. Record number on 2 July with Traffic over the last 7 days is 23,772 (since March 2020). Ryanair, busiest operator, with about 1,000 additional flights per day since start of June. easyJet added extra Compared to capacity over the last two weeks. Low cost airlines are now operating 54% of 2019 flight volumes. equivalent days in 2019 . High increase for many States over the last two weeks, flows between North-West Europe and Southern Europe 38% intensify: France (+27%), Spain (+26%), Turkey (+29%), Germany (+21%), Italy (+29%) and Greece (+35%). Domestic flows are still dominating in terms of traffic volumes (France, Italy), noticeable increases on flows between Germany and Turkey as well as Russian Federation and Turkey. Domestic traffic vs 2019: Europe (-47%), US (-19%), China (-7%) (situation easing after lockdown in the Guanghzou area), Middle-East (-31%) 2 2 Top 10 Busiest Airports 7-day average Dep/Arr flights on 1-7 July, compared to 2019 Average flights per day Average flights per day Top 10 Airports (week 1-7/7) (week 1-7/7) vs 2019 Market Segments Amsterdam 900 -40% On 7 July, compared to 2019 IGA Istanbul Airport 891 -29% Frankfurt 854 -44% Paris/Charles-De-Gaulle 816 -46% 46% 47% 9% Low cost Traditional Business Madrid/Barajas 736 -42% Aviation Antalya 695 -26% Palma De Mallorca 659 -29% Istanbul/Sabiha Gokcen 637 -5% 16% 5% Non-Scheduled/ All Cargo Athens 636 -23% Charter Barcelona 605 -44% Economics Passengers Traffic Flow (02 July 2021) (17 June 2021) On 7 July, the intra-European traffic flow was Fuel price 2.4 million pax 17,232 + 20% -38% -5.4 million 191 vs. 2019 flights over past Compared Cents/gallon 2 weeks to 2019 compared to 189 cents/gallon on 25 June 2021 (-69%) Source: IATA/Platts Source: ACI 3 Overall traffic situation at network level 21,567 flights on Wednesday 7 July. +19% with +3,469 flights over 2 weeks (from Wednesday 23 June). +10% with +1,909 flights over 1 week (from Wednesday 30 June). 60% of 2019 traffic levels. SUPPORTING EUROPEAN AVIATION 4 Current traffic evolution The traffic has clearly been increasing over the last 8 weeks with significant accelerations on 1st June and 1st July (2 digit increases). After having been stable since January at around -64% compared to 2019, the traffic has now reached -38% over the last week. SUPPORTING EUROPEAN AVIATION 5 Current situation compared to the latest EUROCONTROL traffic scenarios Flights at 62% on 1-7 July 2021 compared to 1-7 July 2019. This is in line with the latest EUROCONTROL traffic scenarios published on 1 June 2021. SUPPORTING EUROPEAN AVIATION 6 Market Segments On 7 July 2021, compared to 2019: All-cargo and Business Aviation are the only segment above 2019 levels with +5% and +9% respectively. Charter decreased to -16% and catching up since early June. Traditional and Low-Cost have consistently increased over the last month to reach respectively -47% and -46% vs 2019. SUPPORTING EUROPEAN AVIATION 7 Aircraft operators (Daily flights) Top 10 Positive change in the ranking Rank Top 10 Aircraft Operators on Wed 07-07-2021 over 2 weeks for easyJet, evolution Wizzair and SAS. over 2 D over 2 % over 2 Aircraft Operator Flights % vs 2019 weeks weeks weeks 2-digit increase for all the top Ryanair 1655 +323 +24% -36% 10 airlines, 3-digit for easyJet. Turkish Airlines 1144 +197 +21% -20% Air France 804 +148 +23% -41% Highest increase over 2 weeks Lufthansa 682 +157 +30% -58% for easyJet (+158%), 1/3 due KLM 637 +188 +42% -32% to domestic French flows easyJet 628 +385 +158% -65% followed by domestic flows in Wizz Air 523 +179 +52% -22% UK and Italy. Pegasus 493 +80 +19% -0% Ryanair is the 2nd airline Vueling 425 +78 +22% -41% adding the highest number of SAS 366 +111 +44% -54% flights to the network (+323) after easyJet (+385). Pegasus reached equivalent flight volumes as in 2019. SUPPORTING EUROPEAN AVIATION 8 Aircraft operators (Daily flights) Top 40 – Latest operations Highest increase for easyJet (+158%), Norwegian (+134%), Swiss (+103%) and Sun Express (+71%). Ryanair 1st, easyJet 6th, British Airways 18th, Air France 3rd, Lufthansa 4th. Traffic levels ranging from -80% (Aer Lingus) to +7% (Loganair) compared to 2019. SUPPORTING EUROPEAN AVIATION 9 Aircraft operators Latest news European airlines Worldwide airlines Air France-KLM issues €800 million of senior notes with coupons of 3%/3.875%. Air Canada resuming/increasing services to a number of European Air Malta operates first service to Libya since 2014. destinations. Austrian Airlines to convert a Boeing 777 back into passenger Aeroflot Group added 6 aircraft (net) in May to its fleet, reaching 340 operations; reports booking of 96,000 passengers on flights to Greece aircraft; to resume operations to Bulgaria in July. in July/August. ANA plans to operate 19% of its planned international schedules in Austrian Airlines expands digital COVID-10 document verification August and 20% in September & October; plans to operate 8 more A380 service to cover 13 countries. sightseeing flights in August. Eurowings plans to operate this summer services to over 70 Emirates resuming A380 operations on services to Washington, LA, destinations from Düsseldorf and around 60 destination from Cologne. Toronto, Munich & Zurich. Lufthansa to resume temporarily the deployment of five A340s from Federal Express exercises options to buy 20 Boeing 767-300F aircraft in summer 2022, prior to their replacement with A350s. FY2024 & FY2025. Ryanair returning to Helsinki Airport from where it will operate 29 JAL Group reports May passenger numbers down 93.5% (international) departing flights per week to 9 destinations. and 72.3% (domestic) compared to 2019. Ryanair reports June passenger numbers down 60.7% on 2019 (load United Airlines places orders for 200 Boeing 737 MAX and 70 A321neo factor at 72%); responds to Malta, Ibiza and Palma being put on the UK aircraft; sees a ‘huge acceleration’ in business travel in the past few green list by adding 200,000 extra seats in July/August/September weeks. (easyJet adding >50,000 seats). Wizz Air adding fifth aircraft to Tirana base, launching new routes to Barcelona & Cologne and increasing other Tirana frequencies; reports June passenger numbers down 56.9% on 2019 (load factor at 64%); opens new base at Rome Fiumicino with 4 A321s and 32 new routes. SUPPORTING EUROPEAN AVIATION 10 States (Daily Departure/Arrival flights) Top 10 2-digit increase for all of top 10 States over 2 weeks. Increase in the ranking over 2 weeks for the Netherlands. Highest increase for Greece (+35%) mainly driven by Ryanair and easyJet especially on flows from/to Germany, Italy and on domestic flows . High increases for Turkey (+29%) and Italy (+29%). France is the State where most flights have been added (+710) over 2 weeks, closely followed by Spain (+683). SUPPORTING EUROPEAN AVIATION 11 States (Daily Departure/Arrival flights) Latest traffic situation Strong increases for Croatia (+59% over 2 weeks), Denmark (+40%), Greece (+35%) and Switzerland (+34%) as well as for Moldova (+62%) and North Macedonia (+55%), both owing to Wizz Air. Traffic levels ranging from -70% (Ireland) to -9% (Albania), compared to 2019. SUPPORTING EUROPEAN AVIATION 12 Associations, Authorities and States IATA and ACI Europe make recommendations to EU states on the practicalities of implementing the EU Digital COVID Certificate. European Council approves ‘neighbourhood’ aviation agreements with Armenia, Tunisia and Ukraine. European Commission opens an in-depth investigation into the proposed acquisition of Air Europa by IAG; reported to be proposing a tax on aviation fuel on intra-EU flights. DGAC reports that May passenger numbers in France were 80.6% down on 2019 (within Metropolitan France: -56.9%). Skyguide reports that it has developed a drone to replace half of the calibration flights that were previously performed by a specially equipped, manned, aircraft. Portugal introduces €2 carbon tax on airline tickets. USA to propose new rules requiring carriers to refund fees for significantly delayed bags; US airports handled over 2.1 million passengers on 5 July (Monday after the Independence Day weekend), 21% down on 2019. SUPPORTING EUROPEAN AVIATION 13 Traffic flows (Daily Departure/Arrival flights) The main traffic flow is the intra-Europe flow with 17,232 flights on Wednesday 7 July, which is increasing (+20%) over 2 weeks. Intra-Europe flights are at -38% compared to 2019 while intercontinental flows are at -47%. SUPPORTING EUROPEAN AVIATION 14 Country pairs (Daily Departure/Arrival flights) Top 10 8 of the top 10 flows are domestic. Highest increases for Germany-Turkey (+77%), owing to Sun Express, Corendon and Turkish Airlines, Germany-Spain (+38%) mainly due to Ryanair, Eurowings and Lufthansa Domestic Italy (+19%) owing to easyJet, Alitalia, Ryanair and Volotea. Domestic France saw the biggest change over two weeks (+140 flights). SUPPORTING EUROPEAN AVIATION 15 Country pairs (Daily Departure/Arrival flights) Latest traffic situation Flows recording the biggest increases over two weeks: • Greece-Italy (+118%) owing to Ryanair, easyJet. • Russia-Turkey (+98%) mainly thanks to Azur Air, Ural Airlines, Norwind Airlines, Rossiya Airlines. • France-Greece (+89%) thanks to easyJet and Air France for the main operators. SUPPORTING EUROPEAN AVIATION 16 Outside Europe USA Bookings are improving but demand for corporate and long-haul international air travel are lagging. On 6 July, US passenger airline departures were 21% below 2019 levels with domestic down 19% and international down 37%.
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