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Kopczuk and Saez, 2004) Top Wealth Shares in the United States, 1916–2000 Top Wealth Shares in the United States, 1916–2000: Evidence from Estate Tax Returns Abstract - This paper presents new homogeneous series on top wealth shares from 1916 to 2000 in the United States using estate tax return data. Top wealth shares were very high at the beginning of the period but have been hit sharply by the Great Depression, the New Deal, and World War II shocks. Those shocks have had per- manent effects. Following a decline in the 1970s, top wealth shares recovered in the early 1980s, but they are still much lower in 2000 than in the early decades of the century. Most of the changes we document are concentrated among the very top wealth holders with much smaller movements for groups below the top 0.1 percent. Con- sistent with the Survey of Consumer Finances results, top wealth shares estimated from Estate Tax Returns display no significant increase since 1995. Evidence from the Forbes 400 richest Ameri- cans suggests that only the super–rich have experienced significant gains relative to the average over the last decade. Our results are consistent with the decreased importance of capital incomes at the top of the income distribution documented by Piketty and Saez (2003), and suggest that the rentier class of the early century is not yet reconstituted. The paper proposes several tentative explanations to account for the facts. Wojciech Kopczuk INTRODUCTION Columbia University, New York, NY 10027 he pattern of wealth and income inequality during the and Tprocess of development of modern economies has at- tracted enormous attention since Kuznets (1955) formulated NBER, Cambridge, MA his famous inverted U–curve hypothesis. Wealth tends to be 02138 much more concentrated than income because of life cycle savings and because it can be transmitted from generation to Emmanuel Saez generation. Liberals have blamed wealth concentration be- University of California, cause of concerns for equity and in particular for tilting the po- Berkeley, CA 94720 litical process in the favor of the wealthy. They have proposed and progressive taxation as an appropriate counter–force against wealth concentration.1 For conservatives, concentration of NBER, Cambridge, MA wealth is considered as a natural and necessary outcome of 02138 an environment that provides incentives for entrepreneur- ship and wealth accumulation, key elements of macro–eco- National Tax Journal 1 In the early 1930s, President Roosevelt justified the implementation of Vol. LVII, No. 2, Part 2 drastic increases in the burden and progressivity of federal income and June 2004 estate taxation in large part on those grounds. 445 NATIONAL TAX JOURNAL nomic success. Redistribution through worth in the economy. Second, for each of progressive taxation might weaken those these groups, we decompose wealth into incentives and generate large efficiency various sources such as real estate, fixed costs. Therefore, it is of great importance claims assets (bonds, cash, mortgages, to understand the forces driving wealth etc.), corporate stock, and debts. We also concentration over time and whether gov- display the composition by gender, age, ernment interventions through taxation and marital characteristics. This exercise or other regulations are effective and/or follows in the tradition of Lampman harmful to curb wealth inequality. This (1962), who produced top wealth share es- task is greatly facilitated by the avail- timates for a few years between 1922 and ability of long and homogeneous series 1956. Lampman, however, did not analyze of income or wealth concentration. Such groups smaller than the top .5 percent and series are in general difficult to construct this is an important difference because our because of lack of good data. In this paper, analysis shows that, even within the top we use the extraordinary micro dataset of percentile, there is dramatic heterogene- estate tax returns that has been recently ity in the shares of wealth patterns. Most compiled by the Statistics of Income Divi- importantly, nobody has attempted to sion of the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) estimate, as we do here, homogeneous in order to construct homogeneous series series covering the entire century.4 of wealth shares accruing to the upper Our series show that there has been a groups of the wealth distribution since sharp reduction in wealth concentration 1916, the beginning of the modern federal over the 20th century: the top 1 percent estate tax in the United States. wealth share was close to 40 percent in The IRS dataset includes detailed mi- the early decades of the century but has cro–information for all federal estate tax fluctuated between 20 and 25 percent returns filed during the 1916–1945 period.2 over the last three decades. This dramatic We supplement these data with both decline took place at a very specific time published tabulations and other IRS mi- period, from the onset of Great Depression cro–data of estate tax returns from selected to the end of World War II, and was con- years of the second half of the century. centrated in the very top groups within We use the estate multiplier technique, the top percentile, namely groups within which amounts to weighting each estate the top 0.1 percent. Changes in the top tax return by the inverse probability of percentile below the top 0.1 percent have death, to estimate the wealth distribution been much more modest. It is fairly easy of the living adult population from estate to understand why the shocks of the Great data. First, we have constructed almost Depression, the New Deal policies which annual series of shares of total wealth ac- increased dramatically the burden of es- cruing to various sub–groups within the tate and income taxation for the wealthy, two percent of the wealth distribution.3 and World War II, could have had such a Although small in size, these top groups dramatic impact on wealth concentration. hold a substantial fraction of total net However, top wealth shares did not re- 2 The estate tax return data was compiled electronically and, hence, saved for research purposes thanks to Fritz Scheuren, former director of the Statistics of Income division at the IRS. 3 For the period 1916–1945, because of very high estate tax exemption levels, the largest group we can consider is the top 1 percent. 4 Smith (1984) provides estimates for some years between 1958 and 1976 but his series are not fully consistent with Lampman (1962). Wolff (1994) has patched series from those authors and non–estate data sources to produce long–term series. We explain in detail in the third part of the fifth section why such a patching methodology can produce misleading results. 446 Top Wealth Shares in the United States, 1916–2000 cover in the following decades, a period of either because the pay surge at the top rapid growth and great economic prosper- is too recent a phenomenon, or because ity. In the early 1980s, top wealth shares their savings rates are very low. We show have increased, and this increase has also that, as a possible consequence of democ- been very concentrated. However, this ratization of stock ownership in America, increase is small relative to the losses the top one percent individuals do not from the first part of the twentieth cen- hold today a significantly larger fraction tury and the top wealth shares increased of their wealth in the form of stocks than only to the levels prevailing prior to the the average person in the U.S. economy, recessions of the 1970s. Furthermore, this explaining in part why the bull stock increase took place in the early 1980s and market of the late 1990s has not benefited top shares were stable during the 1990s. disproportionately the rich.5 This evidence is consistent with the Although there is substantial circum- dramatic decline in top capital incomes stantial evidence that we find persuasive, documented in Piketty and Saez (2003) we cannot prove that progressive taxation using income tax return data. As they do, and stock market democratization had we tentatively suggest (but do not prove) the decisive role we attribute to them. that steep progressive income and estate In our view, the primary contribution of taxation, by reducing the rate of wealth this paper is to provide new and homo- accumulation of the rich, may have been geneous series on wealth concentration the most important factor preventing using the very rich estate tax statistics. We large fortunes to be reconstituted after the are aware that the assumptions needed shocks of the 1929–1945 period. to obtain unbiased estimates using the Perhaps surprisingly, our top wealth estate multiplier method may not be met shares series do not increase during the and, drawing on previous studies, we try 1990s, a time of the Internet revolution to discuss as carefully as possible how and the creation of dot–com fortunes, potential sources of bias, such as estate extra–ordinary stock price growth, and tax evasion and tax avoidance, can affect of great increase in income concentra- our estimates. Much work is still needed tion (Piketty and Saez, 2003). Our results to compare systematically the estate tax are nevertheless consistent with findings estimates with other sources such as from the Survey of Consumer Financ- capital income from income tax returns, es (Kennickell, 2003; Scholz, 2003), which the Survey of Consumer Finances, and also indicate hardly any growth in wealth the Forbes 400 list. concentration since 1995. This absence of The paper is organized as follows. The growth in top wealth shares in the 1990s second section describes our data sources is not necessarily inconsistent with the and outlines our estimation methods. income shares results from Piketty and The third section presents our estimation Saez (2003) because the dramatic growth results.
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